Over at The Harball Times, they have an interesting little piece using graphs to analyze Daniel Cabrera's past performance and to speculate about his future.
They focus on K/9 and BB/9, pointing out that his K/9 seems legit, given his track record, but that there's not much there to suggest that his BB/9 is going to suddenly drop without a major adjustment on Cabrera's part -- his BB/9 was quite high for most of his minor league career, never getting below 3.7 (which was in rookie ball).
The implication is that if he's going to realize the potential suggested by his K/9, he needs to do more than simply translate his minor league performance to the majors; he needs to become a better pitcher than he has been to this point.
The one thing I see that is potentially positive is the drop from A to AA, followed by a (more modest) drop in the majors from 2004 to 2005. If you combine those lines (adjusting for the uptick in 2004 from AA to the majors), it seems like there is a downward trend at work. (You might also include the drop from 2001 to 2002 in this trend, adjusting again for an uptick as he went up a level to A ball in 2003.) If he can even get his BB/9 below 4, you're talking about a very good pitcher; below 3 and you're talking about a potential Cy Young candidate.




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