Diamond Mind loves the O's

by thecubsfan on Mar 31, 2005 12:09 PM EST

Well, not as much as the Red Sox or the Yankees, but compared to all the other AL teams, they come out pretty nice, with the best shot at stealing the wild card away.

Diamond Mind's annual standings - an intense statisical model of the season, run 100 times - are posted at http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2005.htm .

The O's end up with an average record of 80-82, which is a nice record for a division with two 96+ win teams. More importantly, 6.5% of the time, the O's end up winning the wild card. No other non-BOS/NYY team has even a 3% shot.

The system figures the AL West will be top to bottom competitive enough that'll be hard to pick up enough easy wins to compete for the Wild Card time after time, and no besides the Twins in the AL Central are a reliable contender.

The other surprise is the system really doesn't like the offense - they're end up with 7 most runs scored in the AL, right in the middle, but they also end up in the middle for runs allowed.

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Diamond Mind

The other surprise is the system really doesn't like the offense - they're end up with 7 most runs scored in the AL, right in the middle, but they also end up in the middle for runs allowed.

See, I think this is more likely than "pitching improves and offense KILLS!" The offense isn't THAT great. It does not even compare to Boston's lineup and isn't on the same level as New York's either.

by Scott Christ on Mar 31, 2005 8:38 PM EST reply actions

Offense

I don't think the Yankees' offense is going to be that great. Williams is still patrolling CF and he's dropping off a cliff.

I think the O's offense is better than the Yanks, but not as good as the Sox.

by pieman1121 on Apr 1, 2005 1:06 PM EST reply actions

eh

If Williams really stinks (I'm talking dropping 30 points BA/OBP/SLG) they still probably have a better offense than we do.

Using 3B/best OF/C/SS/1B (offensive strengths of both teams, though 1B is less so than the rest):

Rodriguez/Matsui/Posada/Jeter/Tino is better Mora/Sosa/Lopez/Tejada/Palmeiro, in my unfortunate and unbiased opinion. Just going by last year's numbers:

Mora > Rodriguez (but Mora was > just about everyone, and of the two, A-Rod has the far better track record, so I'm being a tad generous)
Matsui > Sosa (by a lot)
Posada > Lopez (Javy is good, but Posada is way underrated)
Jeter < Tejada (but it's rather close)
Tino the Devil Ray = Palmeiro, more or less

As for the Red Sox, well, their nine-hitter has a chance to be as productive as our cleanup guy if Bellhorn goes a little right and Sosa goes a little wrong. The same comparison would be pointless for the Sox, because they're a big, oiled machine of pitcher killers with only two big stats guys. But 1-9 they trump the Yankees and Orioles both rather handily, I think.

Is this negative? I don't mean it to be negative. We have a pretty damn good lineup. We just happen to be playing against two teams that have damn better ones.

by Scott Christ on Apr 1, 2005 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

oops, forgot Sheff

I forgot Sheffield completely. It should have been:

Sheffield > Sosa (by a lot)

Then you have, for kicks:

Matsui > Bigbie (by a LOT)

Williams > Matos (this could change, though I doubt it - Matos' plus glove makes up for this in a way, but we're just talking offense)

Giambi = Gibbons (both are injury risks and question marks)

Roberts > Womack

However, I do believe the Orioles to have the better bench.

by Scott Christ on Apr 1, 2005 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

You can't do it by position

You have to do it by batting order.

Jeter > Roberts
ARod > Mora
Sheffield = Tejada
Matsui > Sosa, unless Sosa hits like 45 HRs, which is possible
Posada = Lopez
Giambi ? Palmeiro
Sierra > Gibbons
Womack < Bigbie

Yanks certainly have the edge, but it's closer than you might think.

READ MY BLOG!

by GrimReefa on Apr 14, 2005 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

errrr

Last line should be two lines, and they should read

Williams = Bigbie
Womack < Matos

READ MY BLOG!

by GrimReefa on Apr 14, 2005 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Sheff v. Tejada

Sheffield is better than Tejada. And I didn't do it by order because batting order is something the manager determines day-by-day, so I was just comparing the parts as they lie.

by Scott Christ on Apr 14, 2005 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Sheff vs. Miggy T.

I'm gonna dispute you here. Last season, these were Sheff's numbers:

.290 BA, .393 OBP, .534 SLG, .927 OPS, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 117 Runs

Miggy's:

.311 BA, .360 OBP, .534 SLG, .894 OPS, 34 HR, 150 RBI, 107 Runs

So Miggy has a higher BA and more RBI, while Sheff has a higher OBP (and therefore OPS, since their SLG% is identical) barely more HR, and more Runs.

I'd say that qualifies as even, especially since Sheff is turning 37, while Miggy will be 29.

READ MY BLOG!

by GrimReefa on Apr 14, 2005 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

RBI and runs

are both pretty irrelevant in deciding how good someone is. I just don't consider either of them. 150 RBI is awesome, but fluky. Both of them have been consistent RBI men.

Last year was the first time since '97 Sheffield didn't hit .300+ and the first time since 1994 his OBP wasn't over .400, and his strikeouts were over 80 for the first time ever. Tejada is a real good ballplayer and hitter, but he is not on Sheffield's level. Even though Tejada is younger, and even though Sheff is nearing the end of his career, I think you have to take into consideration that Sheffield played hurt most of 2004.

And also taking careers into consideration, Sheffield slays Tejada. Tejada has hit .300 twice, slugged .500 twice, and had an OBP over .350 twice - all of them last year and his MVP season. He is very, very good, but to put him on Sheffield's level as a hitter would be overrating him, in my opinion.

by Scott Christ on Apr 14, 2005 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, you're probably right

I may come around to your line of thinking. I checked BP's projections and they have NY for about 900 and the O's for 830 or so.

My anti-Yankee bias may be coming through.

by pieman1121 on Apr 1, 2005 4:16 PM EST reply actions

Overall

I agree that Boston is great -- they only have a couple of stars in Manny and Ortiz, but they're incredibly solid 1-9, with OBP and power throughout (no Womacks in that lineup) and they've got good depth.

If nearly everything goes right for the Orioles (Matos, Gibbons, Bigbie, Roberts, Sosa, Palmeiro) and a lot goes wrong for the Yankees (Williams, Giambi, Tino, Womack) I could see us pulling even or just a little beyond, but that's a long shot at this point.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Apr 1, 2005 8:28 PM EST reply actions

post subjects

If Gibbons & Matos comes thru I see the oriole
lineup & tad behind Boston & ahead of the Yanks
Of course I,m oriole biased.

by hagersbush on Apr 2, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions

80 wins

is what I predicted in another thread. That was a "gut" guess, but its interesting to see the

Of course, I do believe if any two of the pitchers get hot, the bullpen live up to its hype and Sammy, Tejada and Mora put up normal #s, then we may be talking closer to 90!

http://www.aintthebeercold.com

by aintthebeercolddotcom on Apr 6, 2005 6:29 PM EDT reply actions