Hayden Penn and logic

by SC on Jun 24, 2005 10:13 PM EDT in News Comment 5 comments

Hayden Penn has now had six starts in the majors. Tonight, he got absolutely shelled by an injury-riddled Atlanta Braves lineup. Penn went 2+ innings, giving up eight hits and seven earned runs in a 7-5 loss.

Now, look, I love Penn. But I love Penn's future. Penn's present is very clear: he's not a major league pitcher, and instead of his struggles and trials and tribulations on this level, he could be refining his stuff in Ottawa, or even Bowie.

I say this only because there is another option, and it's John Maine. Chances are Penn turns out to be a better pitcher than Maine, but right now Maine is a lot more mature and probably has a better chance of giving us six good innings most days than Penn does.

This is not directly a reaction to Penn's horrible start tonight, either. I've thought this since they called him up, but it's not getting better. He's 20, there's no need to push him right now. Maine is pitching well at Ottawa and probably would provide a little more stability. Would it be smooth sailing with Maine? Of course not, he's got basically no major league experience and he'd take his lumps too. But he's more advanced. It's just that simple.

What would you do? Keep Penn up to hopefully just make a couple more starts, or give them to Maine (or someone else, even) while Bedard continues to mend? This is short-term either way, but we've now seen Penn enough to have gotten a read on how ready he is, and my judgment is he's not ready. Again, we all like him. But there has to be some common sense exercised here, I believe.

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Yeah...

I love Penn, I don't want him traded, and I'm no less optimistic about his future than I was before he was called up. I think he's shown a lot of maturity and a ton of potential, and if John Maine weren't pitching so well, I'd have no trouble with Penn in the rotation (Hell, he's pitching as well as Fat Pitcher)

But, they can't afford to have inconsistent Penn and Cabrera in there together. Give Maine a shot, or Dubuse, or even (gasp) James Baldwin.

Ok...John Maine it is.

Why not 2005?

by BrianS on Jun 24, 2005 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

I disagree, until tonight there has been no reason to consider this. Penn has really pitched well until tonight.

by higgybaby on Jun 25, 2005 12:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

That's a stretch. Penn has labored to get to five innings most of the time. He walks more than he strikes out. Basically he's Cabrera from last year, but Cabrera was 23 and not 20.

And there has been reason to consider this since the moment they called him up, because it was a questionable move to begin with.

by SC on Jun 25, 2005 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take on this...

I'm trying to think about all the pitchers called up in mid-season that made it through five starts. I know there are more, but 3 come to mind:

Cabrera, Travis Driskill, and Josh Towers.

I'm not sure about Cabrera, but the league eventually figured Cabrera out and he labored throught the second half of last year.

But for Driskill and Towers, after five starts was when they started to struggle. Penn has better stuff than both of these players, but he doesn't have the smarts (yet) or experience (in the minors) as Towers and Driskill did. So I think that puts him on the same level of those players.

So I am not at all surprised he was blasted tonight. In my mind, five starts is the amount of time a pitcher gets before the league adjusts. If you can't get past the adjustments the league makes, that means you either don't have the talent, experience, or mental make-up to be in the majors. In Penn's case, its experience. I would give him 1 or 2 more starts to see if he can make the proper adjustments. If he can't, I believe it would be time to give Maine a shot.

by sportsman885 on Jun 25, 2005 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

The five starts thing seems to be about right. The thing is, Penn is a good prospect, perhaps very good, but most don't consider him a great prospect. I mean he's not Mark Prior or anything. Cabrera I think was considered a decent prospect with good upside because of his relative lack of experience (didn't really play baseball growing up) and his fastball, plus 6'7" pitchers give scouts funny feelings in their stomachs.

Driskill and Towers weren't really prospects so their five start rule seems very predictable, and it was. Penn and Cabrera are actual prospects but the same seems to have applied to them. So yeah, five starts works for me too. I expect Penn will stay up to finish the Bedard injury time, which may well be the right move psychologically for him. But in terms of winning, teams have film on him now, plus he's 20 years old, with all that comes with that.

It also probably wouldn't hurt showcasing Maine, the lesser prospect, in hopes that he catches fire, which could either (1) benefit us and make him a lock for the 2006 rotation, or maybe even sticking in it this year one way or another, or (2) make him more attractive trade bait for someone willing to part with an impact-type player.

by SC on Jun 25, 2005 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs