Been thinking about the SP issues that the O's have been having, and all those trade rumors... Is Schmidt worth the price? What about Burnett?
Anyhow, the stat of "Quality Starts" comes to mind in how to evaluate the situation...
Here's how the O's currently stand with the starting pitching:
GS QS Pct
Ponson 16 6 0.375
Lopez 16 8 0.500
Cabrera 15 6 0.400
Chen 15 10 0.667
Bedard 9 7 0.778
Penn 6 1 0.167
Now, historically, a team wins about 2/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher returns a QS & only about 1/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher does not return a QS. (For info from 1984-1991, see http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm) The predicted record for the O's then is:
2/3(38) + 1/3(77-38) = 38 Wins & 39 Losses
Ideally (let's say for 95 wins), a team needs about 123 quality starts over the course of the season - about 3/4 of its games. We're definitely not on track for that right now...
Can we trade for a SP with a better percentage of quality starts? The two names most passed around right now seem to be Jason Schmidt & A.J. Burnett. Let's see how they stack up to each other:
Schmidt GS: 14 QS: 6 Pct. 0.429
Burnett GS: 15 QS: 13 Pct. 0.867
Schmidt isn't worth a trade - he probably wouldn't improve things much for Baltimore. Besides, there are concerns about his arm health, anyway!
Now, Burnett.... hmmm.... He's definitely worth a serious look, but the Marlins' asking price right now seems a tad high. I'd be glad to see Julio go, and I wouldn't cry too much over the loss of Cabrera, but I can't see Beattie & Flanagan letting Penn & Bigbie get away right now. Too promising of a future.
Just my thoughts on the matter right now...
GO O's!