Quality Starts and Schmidt vs. Burnett

by DurhamO on Jun 29, 2005 10:56 AM EDT Comment 6 comments

Been thinking about the SP issues that the O's have been having, and all those trade rumors... Is Schmidt worth the price? What about Burnett?

Anyhow, the stat of "Quality Starts" comes to mind in how to evaluate the situation...

Here's how the O's currently stand with the starting pitching:

    GS    QS    Pct
Ponson    16    6    0.375
Lopez    16    8    0.500
Cabrera    15    6    0.400
Chen    15    10    0.667
Bedard    9    7    0.778
Penn    6    1    0.167

Now, historically, a team wins about 2/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher returns a QS & only about 1/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher does not return a QS. (For info from 1984-1991, see http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm) The predicted record for the O's then is:

2/3(38) + 1/3(77-38) = 38 Wins & 39 Losses

Ideally (let's say for 95 wins), a team needs about 123 quality starts over the course of the season - about 3/4 of its games. We're definitely not on track for that right now...

Can we trade for a SP with a better percentage of quality starts? The two names most passed around right now seem to be Jason Schmidt & A.J. Burnett. Let's see how they stack up to each other:

Schmidt GS: 14 QS: 6 Pct. 0.429
Burnett GS: 15 QS: 13 Pct. 0.867

Schmidt isn't worth a trade - he probably wouldn't improve things much for Baltimore. Besides, there are concerns about his arm health, anyway!
Now, Burnett.... hmmm.... He's definitely worth a serious look, but the Marlins' asking price right now seems a tad high. I'd be glad to see Julio go, and I wouldn't cry too much over the loss of Cabrera, but I can't see Beattie & Flanagan letting Penn & Bigbie get away right now. Too promising of a future.

Just my thoughts on the matter right now...

GO O's!

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Comments

Bigbie...

I'd hate to see 'em trade Bigbie just as he's heating up.

Maybe just gut it out, and hope Bedard comes back soon and in his prior form, and get some help for the bullpen (Less Steve Reed, more Aaron Rakers or Sendy Rheal?)

Why not 2005?

by BrianS on Jun 29, 2005 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

IMO...

Bedard, even back at full strength will not be enough down the stretch. That's not saying we should make the deal, but I think we need another quality SP if we are serious about competing this year.

by rebop on Jun 29, 2005 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Bigbie for Encarnacion

My understanding is that a deal would include Juan Encarnacion for Bigbie. Is Bigbie's future really so bright that adding Encarnacion wouldn't more or less compensate? (I don't know the answer to that question, I'm just asking).

I would not want to give up Penn yet, but I have doubts about Cabrera ever being a consistent pitcher. He should be able to throw strikes by now, and should have added an off speed pitch, but hasn't. If he could do those things he would be a terror, but I'm not convinced he ever will.

by rebop on Jun 29, 2005 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Cabrera's Consistency

Cabrera's inconsistent nature is exactly why I think he should go AND why I think he's a good trading chit. He has LOTS of potential, but if Ray Miller can't get him to throw more strikes, he needs to be sent to another organization. It's possible that he could turn into a monster SP one day & be an Orioles killer, but it's a risk that must be taken.

Anybody else feel like he's kinda Armando Benitez-ish? Wild, smoke-throwin', but ineffective with the O's. Heads to another team & becomes a reasonably productive player.... But hopefully we'll get somebody better than Charles Johnson in return (tr. with Mets in 1998)....

by DurhamO on Jun 29, 2005 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Encarnacion sucks

so he might be a downgrade from Bigbie -- maybe a bit more power, but much less on-base ability. He's an out machine.

BUT, Bigbie is not going to be a major part of the O's future -- he's probably about as good as he's going to get right now. I'd expect some slight improvement in terms of power and consistency, but he's 27 now -- it's not like we're talking about a 24 year-old who is likely to build on the potential we see in Bigbie. What you see is basically what you get -- a guy with solid defense who is about average offensively for a LF on a good day and a liability on a bad day.

AND, OF is one place (along with pitching) where we have some legitimate ability to build from within, so losing an average-at-best regular like Bigbie is not hurting the future of the team.

So I'd say that we can put up with Encarnacion (and maybe fill in with B.J. or Midre Cummings, who is heating up in Ottawa after being out) for the rest of the year. Then, next year, we can sign a mid-level or cheap free agent replacement and see if Val, Jeff, or Nick are ready in spring training, hoping that at least one of them can take over by the end of the year.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Jun 29, 2005 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Cabrera

24 year old pichers with hardly a year's experience in the majors are supposed to be inconsistent. Have some patience. Wouldn't it be nice to still have Schilling, Wells, Finley etc.

by el gordo on Jun 30, 2005 1:02 PM EDT reply actions