New Poll: Cabrera v. Bedard

by Scott Christ on Aug 8, 2005 7:00 AM EDT in News & Rumors

This is not which pitcher is better right now, as clearly that would be Bedard. The question is: Which will have the better full career, Erik Bedard or Daniel Cabrera?

Both of them are basically at the same stage of their Major League career, though Bedard (26) is older than Cabrera (24), and has already had major surgery in the form of his Tommy John operation. You can't ignore that, but it almost seems inevitable that Cabrera, who throws gas and has some mechanical issues, constantly having his delivery tinkered with, will eventually have his own Tommy John surgery.

But that will, of course, all play out over time.

For Bedard, you have the fact that he's a lefty with the superior control of the two, and a mighty nice K-rate this season (8.2 K/9).

In Cabrera's favor is that he has an arm that's just about as good as anyone's, and when he's on, he is about as dominant a pitcher as there is in the majors. He strikes out his share, too, with 8.6 K/9.

Bedard is far more hittable, but Cabrera allows more baserunners because his control isn't as good and he's far more erratic.

Both look like they're going to be good, long-term pitchers. Bedard will need to stay healthy, and Cabrera will need to master his control and a third pitch to be a truly reliable starter. Bedard has more polish. Cabrera has more upside.

So call it in the air: Bedard or Cabrera? If both were available to you in an expansion draft right now, which would you take, and why?

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Cabrera

I would take Cabrera for a number of reasons:

Age. Sure it is only 2 years difference, but look at Bedard at age 25 vs. Bedard at age 26. Cabrera has two years to get to Bedard's level and is really only a few mental issues away.
TUP (Tremendous Upside Potential). With hat tip to Bill Simmons, no one can argue that Cabrera doesn't have the biggest upside we've seen from any Orioles prospect in a long time. I'm not sure how much better Bedard can get (granted, he doesn't need to get much better). Cabrera has the physical talent to be the long term ace we haven't had since Jim Palmer.
Injuries. SC conjectures that Cabrera's mechanical issues will lead to Tommy John surgery some day. I'm not sure about that, perhaps Will Carroll could tell us. Regardless, we already know that Bedard has injury problems and not only those that are elbow related. What good is Bedard when he's on the DL for 6 weeks with a knee injury. Give me Cabrera who is back on the mound two days after taking a liner off his pitching hand.

On a related note, Rich Lederer examines Cabrera over at basballanalysts.com today:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/08/a_tale_of_two_p.php

by wetnap on Aug 8, 2005 8:07 AM EDT reply actions

Throwing Strikes

Danny is a tremendous thrower of the baseball. Basically new to the game, he only really got into baseball at the tender age of 16. I think the major difference right now between the two is that Erik has proven to be able to pitch consitently, while Danny is still a raw thrower. Control is everything at the ML level, and Danny can be most effective when he is a "little wild", but not walk crazy. Texas was the worst team for him to face having control problems, because the last thing those hitters need are extra free baserunners!
I belive that Erik will be the more consistent pitcher over his career, but that Danny will have some some great years. Both are primed to be aces for a long time, and the thought of having them 1-2 att the top of rotation for the next 5 years gets me excited...they could easily be our next Mcnally-Palmer combination.

"What's my secret for winning? That's easy. Pitching, defense, and three run homers" Earl Weaver

by elktonfan on Aug 8, 2005 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Consistency WIns

I picked Bedard solely because of consistency and control, assuming winning percentage is the measure of the better pitcher. Again, this assumes they last the same amount of time and have the same number of starts.

Cabrerra sort of makes me think of Nolan Ryan. Basically in the sense that Ryan (324-292 lifetime record) was always on the wild side and would have won a ton more games without all the walks. But then, he wouldn't have been Nolan Ryan. Is Cabrerra's upside some mini-version of Ryan? Meaning, at his best, he'll be a great hurler but generally hovering just above a .500 winning percentage due to control? All while throwing some spectacular games?

I'm guessing Cabrerra could have some spectacular years, but Bedard will be the consistent one with the better winning percentage in the long haul. But I'm glad they are both Orioles.

by drj on Aug 8, 2005 4:49 PM EDT reply actions

Daniel

Yeah yeah consitency and all that shit, but Bedard (this is from scouting reports) gets tired as the year progresses (you cant tell because hes been injured to long to pitch a full year this year) and he might get injured more. Danny need to learn control but i think that can happen over time. Also you cant teach someone to be 6' 8" and throw 100mph

by Larry Bigbie3 on Aug 8, 2005 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

I voted for Cabrera...

mostly because I hope he has a better career. I'd like to see both pitchers reach their ceiling, and clearly Cabrera's is higher. Watching him pitch, I have to admit to doubts about whether he will ever really reach his potential, but one has to bear in mind that he is still young, and only started pitching at 16. But the more realistic side of me recognizes that a smart, sneaky, control oriented lefty like Bedard is more likely to have a better career than a right-handed flame thrower with control issues. Still, I'll go with Cabrera just for the heck of it.

by rebop on Aug 9, 2005 11:47 AM EDT reply actions