Cabrera and Gibbons Projections

by zbd on Feb 9, 2006 9:49 PM EST

I haven't posted anything on this site before (though I am an avid reader). I wanted to provide to the community some outsiders projections (very interesting - and positive) on Cabrera and Gibbons. I sure hope this is the reality (and I will remain hopeul) - http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/break_outs_and_2.php.

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

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nice find

The guy sounded extremely high on both of them. 40 doubles and 30-35 HRs for Gibby? Possible Cy Young Danny Cabs? Yikes. Hopefully he is right.

BTW- for anyone clicking on the link, be sure to remove the period on the end or else it doesn't work

by dtran2k3 @ Camden Chat on Feb 9, 2006 10:16 PM EST reply actions

Interesting stuff.

I like the guy's reasoning.

The above link is broken, but only because of the period on the end.

Clicking this will take you to the article.

Thanks for the tip, zbd!

by zknower on Feb 9, 2006 10:16 PM EST reply actions

I like

baseballanalysts.com quite a bit. But I just don't get the hoopla over Gibbon. The dude is just too old to morph into a different players.

""If you're looking for someone who might take it up a notch or two next year, consider Jay Gibbons. He was the only [player other than Vladimir Guerrero] who hit more than 15 HR (26) and ranked in the top ten in lowest strikeout rate per plate appearance (.108)... Consider this: Gibbons was 31st in the AL in RC/G with just a .268 batting average on balls in play. You have to go all the way down to the 63rd batter (Nick Swisher) to find someone with a lower BABIP."

I would have liked to see an explanation as to why these two measures predict a breakout performance. I hope Jay does bust out but I'm just hoping he doesn't regress from last year.

by birdman on Feb 9, 2006 10:37 PM EST reply actions

re:

The dude is just too old to morph into a different players.

While I agree that Gibbons isn't a great breakout candidate, we've got a third baseman that went from borderline major leaguer to MVP-like at 31.

"My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.'" - Earl Weaver

by Scott Christ on Feb 9, 2006 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

And

Derrick Lee did the same thing at about the same age. But out of the entire populations of players who reside in the 28-32 age range and played average to slightly above ball their entire careers, how many of those pulled a Derrick Lee or Mora? I'm guessing a very small people. The media highlights the success cases while ignoring all the negative cases which creates the perception that pulling a Mora is much more likely than it actually is.

by birdman on Feb 10, 2006 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

BABIP

Batting Average on Balls in Play is largely a function of luck. The Hardball Times went into the predictive value of batted balls in depth in their Baseball Annual, but the gist o fit is that there's very little correlation across years for either a hitter or a pitchers' BABIP (with a few circumstatial exceptions). If Gibbons' BABIP is normalized to around .300 (roughly average), you'll see a much higher batting average as a lot of balls that were caught due to bad luck fall in for singles and doubles.

I'm not sold on the power spike Lederer predicts. Home runs have nothing to do with luck and everything to do with power and I think Gibbons has firmly established himself in the 25-30 range over a full season. However, I think there's a good chance you see a significant spike in OPS from Gibbons next year.

by jhelfgott @ Camden Chat on Feb 11, 2006 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

Gibbons

"However, I think there's a good chance you see a significant spike in OPS from Gibbons next year."

Why? If HRs aren't a function of luck, then why would Gibby bust out now. Or why would Gibby suddenly develop plate patience (which would increase his walks -> OBP-> OPS)?

by birdman on Feb 11, 2006 3:29 PM EST reply actions