Let's talk about the Orioles

by Scott Christ on May 8, 2006 2:12 AM EDT in News & Rumors

Frustrations are starting to get voiced, and we're 33 games in.

I will say this because it's true: We do not belong on the field with the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees, and that is humbling. I mean, we haven't been as good as those teams in a long time, but we generally remained a pain in Boston's ass those years, and this year they're 6-0 against us. The Yankees dropped one in our lone series with them and then dominated us for two games, which pretty much started the current slide we're on.

Frankly, the Orioles don't really belong on the field with anyone right now. Since the win against New York, the O's are 3-12. If you're a glass half full sort, I suppose you can say that at least they aren't bothering to make us think they're worth a damn this year.

14-19 is not the worst record in the world, and a good team could overcome that sort of start pretty quickly and make a run. But if you've watched this team, they are not good.

Erik Bedard started good, and has been roughed up in two of his last three starts, raising his ERA to 4.54. Kris Benson, God bless him, is doing his best, but Benson has been good against Toronto twice and Tampa Bay twice. His other starts haven't been as successful, including yesterday's shelling at the hands of the Red Sox, raising his ERA to 4.89.

Cabrera has either been fantastic or utter crap (4.73), Chen has been horrible (8.42), and Rodrigo Lopez has been pretty damn bad himself (6.75), though he looks pretty good compared to Chen.

And the offense? It's painful to watch sometimes. It came up in the comments from yesterday's game, but let's put it up here too: This team has had zero plate discipline past Roberts, Mora and Ramon Hernandez. Tejada is still the ol' hacker he's always been, but he's hitting .380 and is our best player, so I'm cutting Tejada some slack. We know who he is, and the least he can do is be good at it, which he has been.

But Gibbons is hacking and past him and the others already mentioned, the team has been terrible at the plate. Patterson has been a bright spot and has a .299 OBP. Markakis has struggled, but he's a rookie. Conine and Millar have been a complete joke. Javy Lopez wasn't hitting worth a damn before he went on the DL.

When half of your lineup is completely worthless and all clumped together, you aren't going to win. That's just out after out after out and you're banking so heavily on the Roberts/Mora/Tejada/Gibbons/Hernandez section to hit, and sometimes Gibbons is of no help, and Hernandez has been slumping, and Roberts is on the DL, and so on and so forth.

This team is just hard to watch. There is absolutely no excitement involved with this year's Orioles.

I won't even start on the bullpen.

We're off today, and frankly, I welcome it. The last 15 games have been an abomination.

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Comments

the O's

I agree with everything said above but the O's are just going through a rough patch. There's no need to worry, the O's are still are a mediocre .500 ball club. Injuries are hurting the team and the starting pitching is bound to get better. I imagine the O's will have one nice winning streak at one point during the season surrounded by solid .500 ball.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 4:06 AM EDT reply actions

Seriously.........

I need to drink from the same punch bowl as you. I can't see where you can begin to be optomistic about the team and its state right now.

by O face on May 8, 2006 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Optomistic?

I don't think .500 is optomistic, I think it's realistic. This is a 4th place team that is playing exactly like a 4th place team. There's too many holes in this club to win consistantly. The O's are a little tough to watch right now, but did anyone here really expect us to compete with NY and Boston this year? This year was about plugging holes with stop-gap players (Millar, Conine, Benson, Newhan), taking chances with players (Patterson, Chen), and letting young guys gain experience and develop (Markakis, Ray, Bedard, Cabrera, Rleal). If Angelos is as committed to winning as he claims he is, we'll have some help on the way this winter. Until then, we'll have to suffer through some pretty mediocre baseball.

"I'm a big dumb asshole with herpes and I eat babies" - Peter Angelos

by BleedingOrange on May 8, 2006 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

There's a difference...

between not being competitive with the Red Sox and Yankees, and not even belonging on the same field as them. This weekend was an embarrassing spectacle--the team looked like mentally they never even got off the bus.

If Angelos is as committed to winning as he claims he is...

Let me stop you right there. Why would anyone in their right mind believe that Angelos is committed to winning?

by rebop on May 8, 2006 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

optimistic

I said the team is a basically .500 club. This has been my opinion from the start of the season and I see no reason to change since the team is 5 games under .500. If a 4th place finish in the AL makes me an optimistic, then I hate to see pessmistic point of view. The O's were just sweep by the RS. Is that really a surprise?

by birdman on May 8, 2006 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

no on that suprise

and if you are thinking that this team (or any team for that matter) finishes 4th in the division with a .500 record than you must be overly optimistic. This isn't the NFC east.
The Jays, Sox, and Yanks handle the O's easy enough and I don't see where they can split a bunch of series with other teams in the AL.

The best thing the Orioles have going for them right now is that their not the Royals.

by O face on May 8, 2006 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

huh

"and if you are thinking that this team (or any team for that matter) finishes 4th in the division with a .500 record than you must be overly optimistic. This isn't the NFC east.
The Jays, Sox, and Yanks handle the O's easy enough and I don't see where they can split a bunch of series with other teams in the AL. "

I think it's safe to say that the RS and Yanks will finish over .500 and I'm pretty the Jay will as well. That leaves a battle for 4th place between the Rays and O's. If the O's finish 81-81, I think they'll finish ahead of the Rays. I don't this is an overly optimistic prediction. The Rays aren't that good.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

you honestly think that

we can win a majority of the games throughout the rest of the AL teams (yanks, sox & jays aside) and make it up to .500? We look like a bottom feeding team right now. Do you work for Peter Angelos?

by O face on May 9, 2006 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions

just a misunderstanding....

and if you are thinking that this team (or any team for that matter) finishes 4th in the division with a .500 record than you must be overly optimistic. This isn't the NFC east.

you meant this as:

"you must be overly optimistic if you think this team finishes fourth in the division or has a .500 record...this team will do neither of those things"

birdman (and I) interpreted you as saying:

"you must be overly optimistic if you think, with a .500 record [that is, assuming a .500 record has been obtained], this team finishes 4th"

just a question of how one reads your original sentence.

by zknower on May 9, 2006 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

It is what it is

I don't know how you could really misinterpret the original post. Let me try to clarify.

I said that thinking this team (meaning the O's) or any team to finish fourth WITH (not or) a .500 record is overly optimistic.
Normally, divsions aren't loaded with teams where one can be 4th place with a .500 record. That right there was my point.
Originally, I was in wonder in how Birdman thought that the O's could be a .500 team finishing 4th in a division that has a strong 3 teams in front of them. For the birds to accomplish that they would have to take series from the rest of the AL which a lot of teams are (right now) looking better than the Orioles.
Now onto your question, do I think the O's can finish ahead of the D-Rays? Yeah, probably, but I don't dismiss the possibility of them beating us. They are only one game behind and they have taken series from Toronto, Boston and Oakland.

by O face on May 9, 2006 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

right.

I'll try to clarify as well, and see my post below in response to rebop.

Re: 4th place, it doesn't matter how strong the three teams are in front. It only matters how much the D-Rays suck. Both teams may be 20+ games out at the end of the season, but if the Os are one game better than the D-Rays, they're in 4th place. Even in this division.

So, to play .500 ball and be in 5th place would mean the D-Rays would have to finish at least one game above .500.

We're saying they won't. And that by definition, if the O's finish at .500, they'll beat the D-Rays and be 4th.

by zknower on May 9, 2006 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Between the four of us.....

......on whats been aformentioned, I think we all got each others point. As they say in the service, hear we what I mean, just not what I say.

by O face on May 9, 2006 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you still misunderstand...

I understood "...and if you are thinking that this team (or any team for that matter) finishes 4th in the division with a .500 record than you must be overly optimistic. This isn't the NFC east" to mean that the team that finishes in 4th place in the AL East (the Orioles or anyone else) is not statistically likely to have a .500 or above record.

The AL East is not a division with a bunch of average teams in it. It has three very good to excellent teams (with some of baseball's highest payrolls), and two that basically stink. Those three legitimately very good teams in the division (Sox, Yanks, Jays) are going to beat the (likely 4th place) Orioles a lot of times this year. Therefore in order to make it to .500 the Orioles would have to win an inordinately high percentage of games against the AL West and Central and interleague games. That is just not likely to happen.

Here is the won/lost percentage of the team that finished 4th in the AL East for the last eight years (.457, .435, .438, .414, .391, .457, .481, .488). Not once in the eight years the AL East has been configured as it currently is did the 4th place finisher reach the .500 mark, and the average winning percentage for the 4th place team in the AL East over the last eight years is only .445. And it will be more difficult for the AL East's 4th place team to reach .500 this year because one team in the division, the Blue Jays, spent a ton of money this off-season and got significantly better.

Here is the won/lost percentage of the team that finished in third place the AL East the last eight years (.494, .481, .531, .481, .494, .512, .519, .543). So the third place team in the AL East has not even reached the .500 mark the majority of the time over the past eight years, and has a winning percentage of only .507. The reason for this is simple; this team has had to compete against the high spending Yankees and Red Sox.

So while it is not statistically impossible for the 4th place team in the AL East to finish with a .500 or better record, it is also not likely. The easiest way for the 4th place AL East team to finish at .500 would be to beat the top 3 teams in their division more often than they did in the past eight years because that's who most of their games are played against. That is not likely to happen because at least one of those teams is much better this year, and the other two are at least as good. The other way to get to .500 would be to win a disproportionately large percentage of the games they play outside their division--this is also not likely to happen. The Orioles aren't going to play better than .600 ball against non-division teams, which is what it would likely take to have an overall record of .500.

Perhaps O Face could have been more clear, but I just can't imagine he was saying the Orioles will have a .500 record and finish behind the Devil Rays. That would just be plain stupid as it assumes a winning record on the part of the Devil Dogs--something that has never happened in that sorry franchise's history, and doesn't look any more likely this year. It would also assume that the Sox, Yankees and Jays would all have to be just a bit above average.

I also think it was unlikely he was saying it is optimistic to assume the Orioles will finish in 4th place. The Orioles would really have to tank to finish behind the Rays, and there is no optimism in assuming your team is worse than the Devil Dogs.

But perhaps O Face can chime in here with clarification. The interpretations of his statement you have made just don't make much sense to me. I think you have unintentionally set up a straw man by misunderstanding what he was really saying.

by rebop on May 9, 2006 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

To clarify

For me, the point was not about whether the Os would finish with a .500 record or better. I'll let you all debate that, which you are doing.

For me the point was: If the O's do finish with a .500 record, is it good enough for 4th place?

The obvious answer is: Yes, if the O's manage a .500 record, it's good enough for 4th.

But O Face's sentence "and if you are thinking that this team (or any team for that matter) finishes 4th in the division with a .500 record than you must be overly optimistic. This isn't the NFC east." While you can't imagine "he was saying the Orioles will have a .500 record and finish behind the Devil Rays.", his sentence above seems to make that exact point. Unless you read it as him saying they can do neither.

Birdman seemed to read it the same way as I did, when he responded with simple logic: "I think it's safe to say that the RS and Yanks will finish over .500 and I'm pretty sure the Jays will as well. That leaves a battle for 4th place between the Rays and O's. If the O's finish 81-81, I think they'll finish ahead of the Rays. I don't this is an overly optimistic prediction. The Rays aren't that good." In other words, in this division, .500 ball, if it can be acheived, should get the O's 4th place, ahead of the D-Rays.

Again, not debating whether they'll do it. Only stating that if they do it, then 4th place is going to be theirs. Clear?

by zknower on May 9, 2006 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure...

.500 easily gets them 4th, possibly 3rd place in the AL East.

O Face's original statement seemed pretty clear to me--but apparently it wasn't since you both misunderstood it--that's why I offered a more detailed clarification.

by rebop on May 9, 2006 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I see O Face...

offered his own clarification in much more elegant language than I used. But really the statistical evidence that the 4th place team in the AL East is highly unlikely to finish with a .500 or above record is quite strong.

If the Orioles are a 4th place team, the chances of them reaching .500 are not good, it's really that simple.

by rebop on May 9, 2006 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

here we go again

If the Orioles are a 4th place team, the chances of them reaching .500 are not good, it's really that simple.

I agree 100%.

My point (and, I believe, birdman's) is just the reverse of this:

If the Orioles do reach .500, then they'll be at least in 4th place at the end of the year.

You agree with that, right?

I think we're all saying the same thing.

by zknower on May 9, 2006 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

see my other response above. i'm not trying to be difficult here--I think part of the misunderstanding is a result of the lag time between posting comments and reading responses (i.e. we're both composing responses at the same time).

by rebop on May 9, 2006 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

It Doesn't Matter

This team sucks, and fourth place isn't getting us anything more this year than it did last year.

by dayzd toe on May 9, 2006 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

stats evidence

"But really the statistical evidence that the 4th place team in the AL East is highly unlikely to finish with a .500 or above record is quite strong."

Thanks for the stats evidence. Apparently, no team in the AL east has finished 4th place with a .500 record. At least in the last 8 years, if a team finishes with .500 record, it means a 3rd place.

"So while it is not statistically impossible for the 4th place team in the AL East to finish with a .500 or better record, it is also not likely. The easiest way for the 4th place AL East team to finish at .500 would be to beat the top 3 teams in their division more often than they did in the past eight years because that's who most of their games are played against. That is not likely to happen because at least one of those teams is much better this year, and the other two are at least as good. The other way to get to .500 would be to win a disproportionately large percentage of the games they play outside their division--this is also not likely to happen. The Orioles aren't going to play better than .600 ball against non-division teams, which is what it would likely take to have an overall record of .500."

There are way more contingency scenarios than you suggest. Frankly, I see the AL east lining something like the NL East last year. And yes I know that this means 2006 will buck statistical trends from the last 8 years but irregularities happen (which can then lead to new trends).

Atlanta 90 72
Philadelphia 88 74
Florida 83 79
NY Mets 83 79
Washington 81 81

ATL and PHI is homologous to NY and Bos. Florida are homologous to the Jays. Obviously, the Mets and Expos do not corrospond to the O's and Nats. The O's will be more likely to be 4 games under .500 than over. The 4 extra wins could be spread to any team. 4 games under .500 isn't a crazy scenario especially since the team is only 5 games under now. The Rays certainly won't be a .500 club like the Expos and whatever losses under .500 they accumulate can be spread to teams at top of the AL or teams in other divisons.

Finally, this conversation is depressing the hell out of me. We're essentially debating how much do the O's suck. We all think they're bad, it's just a matter of how much.

by birdman on May 9, 2006 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

It is depressing...

and if saying the Os are only 5 games under .500 right now cheers you up, go for it. Not to be a buzz kill, but the Orioles current winning percentage is .424, if they keep playing at that pace they will be around 25 games under .500 by the end of the season. I'm not saying they can't make it to .500, but they sure as hell need to play some better baseball to get there.

Statistics (and science) can't tell us what will happen, only what is likely to happen. So you are quite right to point out that we could see some very different results than what we are used to in the AL East this year. The division could end up looking like the NL East with all teams at or above .500 or like the NL West did last year with only one team (barely) above .500. Those would be serious statistical outliers however--they're not likely outcomes.

And of course, it's early in the season, and we have a lot of baseball left to play. No doubt about that. My concern is that right now, the Orioles don't look like they intend to show up for those games.

I admit that last year left me gun shy, and more than a bit negative about the Orioles. But let's face it, the Orioles have a notorious recent history of folding in the second half of the season...and they look like the crummy second half Os right now. I mean seriously, what if this is the good part of the season? Okay, now that is a depressing thought.

by rebop on May 9, 2006 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

division comps

"Statistics (and science) can't tell us what will happen, only what is likely to happen. So you are quite right to point out that we could see some very different results than what we are used to in the AL East this year. The division could end up looking like the NL East with all teams at or above .500 or like the NL West did last year with only one team (barely) above .500. Those would be serious statistical outliers however--they're not likely outcomes."

If you were to pick a random division in a year random year, you'll probably won't find pick a division that looked like the NL East or NL West. So yes, they're not likely outcomes in that sense. But we're not picking a random divison in a random year. We have a sense of what the division is like competition wise. And given that composition, I think the 2005 NL East is a good comp.

by birdman on May 9, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry...

but I have to disagree. I'm not picking any division randomly, I'm looking at the AL East, what has happened in it over the past eight years, looking at what is different this year, and projecting what is likely to happen this year.

It's true we do have a good sense of what the AL East will be like this year, but it will look much like it did over the last eight years. The only real difference is that the Blue Jays have gotten considerably better, and are more likely to finish over .500 this year. There are three teams in the division likely to finish over .500, and two likely to finish under .500.

The Yankees and Red Sox are just as good as last year, and the Blue Jays are better. There are only so many wins to go around in the division, and the Orioles are likely to come up short again this year.

Also, in order to have a division like last year's NL East, it helps to have a division like the NL West to balance it out. But I don't see either the AL Central or AL West as week enough to balance things out, Chicago, Cleveland, Oakland, and LA will almost certainly finish above .500, and Texas, Minn, and possibly Detroit all have a legit shot at it. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave a lot of room for the Orioles to pick up enough wins over last year to make it to .500.

The Orioles, rightly or wrongly, decided not to make any big moves this offseason. They added a better catcher and a decent starter, but their bullpen is if anything worse and they still have a shoddy outfield and an underperforming 1B platoon.

I'm sorry, I know I'm being negative, but I'm just trying to call it like I see it, in as objective a manner as possible. I'd love to be proven wrong. Anyway, it's kinda sad that that the most heated the debate we can have over this team is if they're likely to make it to .500 or not--I think we can at least agree on that.

by rebop on May 10, 2006 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

more on the AL East

"The only real difference is that the Blue Jays have gotten considerably better, and are more likely to finish over .500 this year. There are three teams in the division likely to finish over .500, and two likely to finish under .500."

I don't get it. It sounds like you're agreeing with me!

"Also, in order to have a division like last year's NL East, it helps to have a division like the NL West to balance it out. But I don't see either the AL Central or AL West as week enough to balance things out, Chicago, Cleveland, Oakland, and LA will almost certainly finish above .500, and Texas, Minn, and possibly Detroit all have a legit shot at it. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave a lot of room for the Orioles to pick up enough wins over last year to make it to .500."

You don't need an NL West to balance things out. You just need a 4 sorry ass teams in the AL (KC, D-Rays, Sea, and Min* are homologous to Col, Dodgers, SF, and D-backs respectively). And while the NL West was really weak last year, the NL Central was usually strong compensating for the the number of weak teams in the NL West. Given what you said above in the paragraph I quoted, I think the 2006 AL East will look like the 2005 NL East (except with the O's being closer to .500 or even slightly under rather than being 4 over like the Mets and with the D-Rays being at least 10 games under .500).

* btw, I think Min/Det could be interchangeable. I'm not sure which about which one, but one of them will struggle. I don't believe in the Det at all. They're pitching way over their heads right now. Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson will eventually become Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson again. Verlander is terrific but he's a rookie. Almost all rookies go through bumps in their first season. And Rogers is 42 years old. And their offense isn't that great. Pudge is basically a singles hitters, Shelton will cool down, and Magglio hasn't had a healthy season since 2003.

by birdman on May 10, 2006 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay...

You don't need an NL West to balance things out. You just need a 4 sorry ass teams in the AL (KC, D-Rays, Sea, and Min* are homologous to Col, Dodgers, SF, and D-backs respectively).

Okay, I admit that's possible. The AL teams you site actually lost more combined games last year than their counterparts in the NL West.

The problem is that we don't see any of those teams except the D-Rays, all that often, so the Orioles will have to really beat up on lesser non-division teams when they do face them in order to reach .500. And they have to at least start doing better against our better division rivals. If those things happen, they can get to .500. I think the only thing we really disagree on is the likelyhood of that happening.

by rebop on May 12, 2006 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

SUB .500

If this team gets 70 wins it would be a good season for them. Think about it 19 games each against the Sox, Yanks, Jays. Now start looking at interleague play and the O's are lucky if they win 5 games during that stretch. The O's are just plain bad and mostly boring to watch, no Magic in this club. However I'll be rooting them on as always

PLay like you want it, Live like you need it

by merdon1332000 on May 8, 2006 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry Birdman

I disagree. This "team" is awful.
No depth
No bullpen
No discipline at the plate
Injury riddled
Horribly inconsistent starting pitching
Errors galore
No energy

Just awful. Someone here last week said " it can't get much worse". Well, after losing 12 out of 15, and the Tigers coming in for a series, we'll thank God that KC is due in and that we just might get a series win.

This team is horrible. And it ain't gettin better any time soon.

"What's my secret for winning? That's easy. Pitching, defense, and three run homers" Earl Weaver

by elktonfan on May 8, 2006 9:10 AM EDT reply actions

the O's

So I'm guessing you're predicting a last place finish for the O's? I disagree. The team is bad but I think it can finish around .500 give or take 5 games (most likely take). Roberts is injured, Brower is gone, Javy and the pitching are bound to get better. The O's are next to last in ERA. I just don't think the O's will finish there by the end of season.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

No...

the Devil Rays are still "awfuler" than the Orioles. It will not take a .500 record to finish 4th in the AL East. I think we will finish somewhere around .420-.450. But really, what's the difference between a .500 and .450 4th place finish? It's still 4th place.

Where I am considerably more pessimistic than you and others on this site is the outlook for 2007 and beyond. I'm not drinking the Angelos/Flanagan Kool Aid that this team is rebuilding to be competitive in a couple years. Bedard and Cabrera are getting older, and they still have not developed into even league average pitchers, every year they don't makes it less likely they ever will. Most of our "can't miss" prospects will flop, and Baltimore will continue to be an unattractive destination for top-flight free agents. This team will suck until Angelos sells...but then we've been over this before again and again...agree to disagree and all that...

by rebop on May 8, 2006 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

2007

"the Devil Rays are still "awfuler" than the Orioles. It will not take a .500 record to finish 4th in the AL East. I think we will finish somewhere around .420-.450. But really, what's the difference between a .500 and .450 4th place finish? It's still 4th place."

Sounds about right.

"Where I am considerably more pessimistic than you and others on this site is the outlook for 2007 and beyond. I'm not drinking the Angelos/Flanagan Kool Aid that this team is rebuilding to be competitive in a couple years. Bedard and Cabrera are getting older, and they still have not developed into even league average pitchers, every year they don't makes it less likely they ever will. Most of our "can't miss" prospects will flop, and Baltimore will continue to be an unattractive destination for top-flight free agents. This team will suck until Angelos sells...but then we've been over this before again and again...agree to disagree and all that..."

I don't know about other people, but I don't disagree with you about 2007. The FO's formula for success really depends on Cabrera and Bedard turning into a healthy version of Prior and Wood. I don't see this happening. I think both will have fine major league careers but I think they will evolve into solid number 3 pitchers on a playoff team. The O's are not a terrible team but they're far from good. And the O's have some solid talent signed for the next several years and some nice prospects that should prevent the team from becoming Royals bad. But do I see a playoff contender coming soon? No.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re:

The FO "plan", which has never been really defined but has been hinted at being modeled after Minn. and Oak. also requires Penn and Loewen to develop, and rather quickly if they are to pitch with Bedard and Cabrera. If they gel at once, consider it catching lightening in a bottle.

Lord knows what the "plan" is in the outfield. Markakis may come along, but it's pretty barren now (Gibbons included). The O's will need to spend money to get a real bat (or two) in the outfield. We've yet to see the plan for 3rd base, other than haggle Mora.

We've seen plenty of the O's plans over the past 13 years. 2007 and beyond are just as iffy (or doomed if Peter A. has turned you into a complete pessimist). My current plan, once again, is to resign myself to waiting out the owner. It's tough trying to stay distanced when you have an irrational interest in the team.

"Trying is the first step towards failure." <strike>Peter Angelos</strike&gt Homer Simpson

by drj on May 8, 2006 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

the "plan"

I think the FO is trying to build internally and use FA to fill out the rest of the pieces. And if Cabrera and Bedard would turn into Cy Young contenders like the FO had hoped, it would have been a good plan. Throw in a big bat and the O's suddenly have a decent team, maybe not playoff contender good but close. IF Cabrera and Bedard were pitching like Cy Young contenders, then Benson, Roddy and Chen suddenly become decent 3, 4 and 5 starters. The O's wouldn't need to score 7-9 runs per night to bail out their sorry pitching. What I'm worried about is that Flanagan doesn't have a plan B if he's wrong about Cabrera and Bedard. At the end of the season when Cabrera and Bedard don't even come close to contending for the Cy Young, then what. I'm hoping Flanagan has an answer. Unfortunately, I think the FO will say, "Give Bedard and Cabrera another year. They'll turn it around any minute now!"

by birdman on May 8, 2006 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

no...

how do you figure that chen and lopez would be better if bedard and cabrera had been lights out? i think lopez could have been saved from shit outings if the middle relief hadn't been so bad, but chen has thrown bp pure and simple and i have no explanation for it. even allowing for last year's numbers being something of a mirage, the discrepancy is HUGE.

if cabrera and bedard aren't legit front of the rotation guys by the end of the year, tough. they'll be fighting penn and loewen in camp for sure and maybe jj johnson and radhames liz.

by jq higgins on May 8, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

chen and lopez

First, I was talking from the FO's perspective at the beginning of the season. Not many teams have a good fifth starter. And a 4th starter is usually league average (which fits Roddy before this year). And second, Chen and Lopez can't possibly be this bad. They're bound to regress to the career averages a bit.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

i would agree w/ that%%

by jq higgins on May 8, 2006 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Bedard & Cabrera....

...have had some crappy outings, but we've seen some great games from both of them as well. The FO is 100% right into holding onto them and trying to nurture them. We also need to pick up a front of the rotation pitcher, but unfortunately what was available in the offseason just didn't make sense for the money being thrown around. That and a slugger, a la Carlos Lee, and we're back in business. In the meantime they should be trading either Conine or Millar for a reliever to the Cubs immediately, while the gettings is good and before the Cubs realize that they're going to suck this year with or without Derrick Lee.

"You'll get better. I promise." - Cal Ripken Jr.

by Jonnypops on May 8, 2006 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

why a reliever?

do you think the o's could honestly get an arm worth having for conine AND millar, not to mention one or another? relievers are such a crap shoot, i would stick to older farm hands and see who sticks. todd williams was once such a guy. birkins looks good so far.

by jq higgins on May 8, 2006 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Pitching is a crapshoot.

I say we get a reliever because our bullpen SUCKS. We could specifically use a lefty, although that might be hard to come by. Could we get a decent arm in the bullpen for Conine OR Millar? I don't know...but I don't pretend to understand the way the Cubs think anyhow. From a quick glance it looks like they have some depth in their pen...and I'm not sure what else they have that we'd want within reason for one of our oldtimers. Currently they need a 1B patch while Lee's out and a righty outfielder to platoon with Jones. However with the way we've been hitting lefties we need a righty outfielder as well.

"You'll get better. I promise." - Cal Ripken Jr.

by Jonnypops on May 8, 2006 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

re:

If the front office was hoping for Bedard and Cabrera to pitch like Cy Young contenders, they were being unreasonable. How many teams have one Cy Young contender, let alone two, let alone two who have never shown a consistent ability to get hitters out?

by Awesome Mike Awesome on May 8, 2006 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I was hoping EITHER Bedard or Cabrera would turn into an ace. At this point, I think Cabrera will never find consistent control and will project as a solid number 3 starter on a playoff team (Matt Clement might be a good comp). I'm slightly more optimistic about Bedard. I don't see him turning into ace but I could see him developing into a good number 2 guy.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Careful what you wish for....

....there's no reason to think the Orioles won't suck as much, if not more so, after Angelos sells. Because who knows what the next owner would be like?

Back in the day, we were desperate for stingy Eli Jacobs to sell the team. Someone, anyone, would be better than Jacobs, we thought. And we were given....Peter Angelos.

But before you think it can't get any worse, you have to remember the "no spending any money" of the Jacobs era.

Angelos has effed things up a lot. But remember: though it has been 23 years since the team was in the Series, EBW and Jacobs presided over the first ten of those years. In his 13 years of owning the team, Angelos was aggressive early. In an effort to keep up with King George, he spent, and spent freely, signing guys like Palmeiro, Alomar, Key and Wells. He was the owner during the successful campaigns of 1996 and 1997.

Okay, so he was also responsible for the ousters of Pat Gillick and Davey Johnson, two of the worst moves ever, and he also realized he'd never have pockets as deep as Steinbrenner and overreacted by spending nothing for several years and trying to run the team.

To me, there are recent signs of improvement, and a change of attitude on Angelos' part. Signing Tejada was one of them. Firing Syd Thrift was another. Now if he can truly let Flanagan do his job and spend a little dough when it would most help, that would be great. (And yes, he does meddle with FLanagan too much, but remember: Mazilli was Flanagan's hire; Angelos wanted Perlozzo all along....it's easy to see why he'd want to meddle sometimes). Perlozzo himself was quoted a few weeks ago as saying he had the impression that Angelos would kick in some bucks if the team could hang around.

I'm not outright defending him, mind you; the man has made a lot of blunders, and his actions have sometimes been contemptible. But truly, nobody knows what a new owner would do with this team. If you think it can't get worse, take a look at KC, the Brewers, Detroit, or any number of other teams that have had crappy front offices for even longer.

by zknower on May 8, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

money

"Okay, so he was also responsible for the ousters of Pat Gillick and Davey Johnson, two of the worst moves ever, and he also realized he'd never have pockets as deep as Steinbrenner and overreacted by spending nothing for several years and trying to run the team."

Brady Anderson, Scott Erickson and Albert Belle were not signed for chump change.

The O's have 72 million dollar payroll which isn't bad. It probably could be higher (and would be higher if Konerko had signed with the O's) but 72 million isn't horrible. Several teams have won the WS with a middle of the road payroll. Money isn't the problem with the O's, it's a lot of other things.

by birdman on May 8, 2006 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree...

...that money isn't the biggest problem; I'm just saying that Angelos spent freely for years, and then he reined it in. Look at the debate over a lousy $3M in the contract for Mora. That's not the same guy as the Angelos who shelled out for Albert Belle.

Money is not the biggest problem by far--we know that Angelos will spend once in a while--but there have been times where his being overly thrifty has hurt him...at least from a PR standpoint. You need lookno further than the choice to not sign BJ Ryan last spring, or Mike Mussina in his walk year.

by zknower on May 8, 2006 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Money

It's not how much you spend, but how you spend it! I think it was a waste to pay Niner, Millar. Patterson was worth the risk, Hernadez seems worth it( if the O's keep building on that). Mora IMO wouldn't be a loss if he left, nor is he going to make a huge impact if he stays. I really think he is our top trade bait right now.

If the O's continue to spend wisely going forward 75million will get us to .500, but we'll never compete in the AL East against the Sox and Yankees, we'll always be a 3rd place team with exception here and there.

Best Move for the O's is for the national to move to the Al East and move us to the NL East!

PLay like you want it, Live like you need it

by merdon1332000 on May 8, 2006 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

It would appear...

....as though the O's need to spend at least $30 - $35 million more to become competitive in this division. And with the BoSox being as well put together as they are and the Yanks shelling out this kind of payroll it would be no guarantee of anything. Those markets are huge...New York is New York and "Red Sox Nation" covers the whole of New England with the exception of some of the Fairfield County areas in Connecticut adjacent to NY State. $30 - $35 million could get us a Carlos Lee & a frontline starter like a Zito in the offseason plus maybe a little help around the edges, like relievers and veteran position players. But this would still take a lot of things clicking into place...like Bedard and Cabrera for instance...and our offense being able to execute fundamentals and consistency in run production in order to win. It's a tall order.

We used to have the potential for an enormous market ourselves with the DC area and VA being ours for the taking...but I never felt they marketed it properly...or maybe we just haven't won enough in the last 20 years for it to stick. Plus I guess it's difficult to go into a market that's lost a team. When the Colts left Bmore I was already a Skins fan...but my stepdad, a lifelong diehard Colts fan, would never root for the Skins in a million years, and he went without an NFL team until the Ravens came to town.

Winning is obviously the best marketing for a sports team. But beyond that they need to improve the quality of the game experience. Where are the Wild Bill Hagys? What happened to the quirky Bmore announcers? Everything is so corporate and generic around Camden Yards these days and it doesn't need to be that way. Baltimore is all about blue collar quirkiness and hometown charm...and this organization has lost touch with that.

"You'll get better. I promise." - Cal Ripken Jr.

by Jonnypops on May 9, 2006 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

i dunno...

that this team needs to spend 30-35 million more to be competitive, but it needs to spend smarter, ie: no more millars and conines and no more redundant signings if they don't have deals in the offing. do you think the jays spent wisely by offering all that $ and all those years to burnett and ryan? i think they're foolish, foolish signings. conine and millar might be pointless, but at least they don't expose us like that.

i can't say i wouldn't have done bedard for adam dunn and if the prospect + finley or erstad or cabrera deal the angels were offering is correct, can't say i wouldn't have shipped out tejada, either.

by jq higgins on May 9, 2006 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't kid yourself.

The Red Sox consistently spend that kind of money AND spend it wisely and they still don't win the division, but they have been able to get second place for quite a while now and the wild card the past three seasons. Ponying up the extra $30-$35 mil is the price of admission these days in this division. And that only gets us onto the same field as the big boys...no promise of winning a damn thing...thus the hesitance of the FO to do it. Now if we were in any other division except for NL East with the newly freespending Mets it would be a different story. But we're not. Until we start spending real money you will see the wheels continue to spin in the mud. It's not the only answer...we need to be smart as hell about it still...but it is a prerequisite I'm afraid.

"You'll get better. I promise." - Cal Ripken Jr.

by Jonnypops on May 9, 2006 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Quite Frankly

I don't know that it matters if the team goes 2-160 or 81-81, neither are making the playoffs and isn't that whole point in any sport's season... to give your team a chance to be the best. We all know this team is nowhere near the best. So I don't care if we win 1 more game the rest of season- We're not making the playoffs, and we sure as hell aren't going to the Series. Just continue to hope against hope that PA sells and that the buyer understands what building a winner is about.

by dayzd toe on May 8, 2006 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

.500

rant/

I agree in principle, Dayzed Toe, that .500 is just a number that doesn't mean anything. But in another way, I disagree. I've kind of set myself to lower expectations that competing with the Yankees and Red Sox just isn't going to happen right now, that it's going to take some luck and a foundation of success to build on.

After 5,6, 7, 8, and counting straight losing seasons, I'm ready to be excited about a step upward to mediocrity. 3rd place, a winning (even if it's 82-80) or even .500 record I could consider a step in the right direction that can be built on.

I don't mean to be overly negative, but I'm really down on this team right now. I have such modest hopes and expectations for them, and they continue to fall short. Over the past 9 years, I can't really see that for all their rebuilding, that they've made any progress at all. For the first time in my life as a sports fan, I'm running out of frustration and getting close to ceasing to care about them. I'm also an Eagles/Flyers/Sixers fan, and everyone knows about the Philadelphia title drought. So, I'm definately not oppossed to supporting lost causes, but Orioles have just been so bad for so long with no end or even improvement in sight.

I'm upset about the dwindling attendance and lacking fan support, but on the other hand, the crappy baseball gives me no desire to spend $2.89 a gallon to drive down and see the them play, or even watch on TV if I turn on and see that they're losing. I really haven't been a vocal Angelos basher. I think he's part of the problem, and is ultimately responsible, but I do think he was at one point a well-meaning owner who was either willing to spend to win or at least sincerely wanted to build a winning franchise. I thought people were mad at Angelos because either they didn't know who to be mad at (or were mad at everyone), or because he was just the top of an organization that's inept from top to bottom. Now, my impression is that he'd rather just whine about baseball in Washington or dwindling revenues and make excuses rather than putting a team that wins out on the field (which in my opinion, would solve his other problems).

/rant

Sorry -- it's nice to vent at other O's fans and I get carried away. I'll drink the Kool-Aid and be back on Tuesday hoping they finally win an f'ing game.

Orioles' Rebuilding Plan: Phase 1: Steal Underwear. Phase 3: Win the World Series.

by BrianS on May 8, 2006 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

fellow flyers fan

how much longer does Bobby Clarke have? I know he can't change the team names overnight (like he used to) due to the new cap system. But somehow he still keeps finding a way not to go out and get a goalie. I have never been of fan of him up in the GM spot and I think we need someone who will think better with the new NHL.

by O face on May 8, 2006 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

It could be worse....

...we could be the Nationals!

"You'll get better. I promise." - Cal Ripken Jr.

by Jonnypops on May 8, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions

Hell,

They had a better owner than PA before they HAD an owner.

by dayzd toe on May 8, 2006 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Bullpen....

I really starting to gain some confidence in this bullpen. Since the departure of Brower they've actually pitched pretty well. The only guy that has me worried is Hawkins, and I think he'll probably end up somewhat average. Granted, I think Halama has gotten lucky with his ERA because he's given up a ton of hit. But so far Ray, Birkins, Williams, Manon and Rleal have all been solid.

The rotation on the other hand has been much worse than my expectations.

And the outfield has pretty much lived up to my expecation of being awful. I really think that the O's have one of the worst hitting outfields I've ever seen.

by BirdFanInPhilly on May 8, 2006 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

this is true...

i was looking at the phils as a comparison and i thought the o's are pretty comparable, maybe w/ an edge everywhere, but the phils' outfield is SO much better. either dellucci (ex-o) or victorino would be such massive upgrades in either center or left (for the o's), it's amazing.

by jq higgins on May 8, 2006 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

A Day Off

I actually feel like this is a 3 day vacation weekend just because the O's aren't playing. Not having to watch them makes me feel so alive!

by Mike Boehm on May 8, 2006 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

Here's the deal...

I am planning a trip to MD for either the first or second weekend in June. If I go the first weekend, the Os will be in town, playing the Yankees. Ordinarily, I would already have tickets. But I'm not sure I want to see the Orioles play the Yankees right now live and in person.

First of all, Camden Yards will seem more like it's in the South Bronx than Baltimore. I have to be pretty much resigned to being outnumbered in my own team's stadium. Secondly, I fear the Orioles will roll over for the Yankees the way they did for the Red Sox this weekend. Who wants to see that? That's just not fun. Third, while I don't want to "boycott" the Orioles, I am reluctant to give Peter Angelos any more money for putting such a crappy product on the field year after year.

Eight straight losing seasons and no end in sight...and this off-season management didn't even pretend to address this team's many needs (Kevin Millar? Jeff Conine? Give me a break!). When do I say enough is enough? I am starting to feel like an enabler of an alcohol abuser--the kind of guy who covers for his drunk buddy at work to do him a "favor" but is really only shielding him from the consequences of his decisions, and thus only delaying his day of reckoning when he has to come to terms with the fact that he has a problem.

Anyway, despite my kvetching, if the trip happens on the first weekend in June, I'll probably go anyway. But part of me is hoping the first weekend won't work out, and I will have to make the trip the second weekend while the Os are on the road. That way I don't have to watch my team get humiliated in front of a majority Yankee audience in their own stadium. This is a long way from the days when I proudly wore my Os hat in Yankee Stadium and gladly bore the brunt of Yankee fans' abuse for the privilege of seeing Cal and my beloved Birds play. It's just sad that it's come to this.

by rebop on May 8, 2006 4:31 PM EDT reply actions

don't waste your time or money

stop in philly and watch some ball there. They're more exciting and competitive to watch right now. I am at the point where I refuse to give money to the Orioles for such a terrible product. Unless a miracle happens this year I am saving my money for season tickets to hockey.

by O face on May 8, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I had a similar, but easier, conundrum in April

I was in town for the Angels series, and although I had no explicit plans to go to a game, Cabrera came up in the rotation. This was after his two awful starts, but I decided to take a chance because he's the one player who will always get me to tune into the O's.

The Angels are not either of the Yankee teams, so my decision was much easier. All I can say is look for a paticular matchup, player, or other event you're interested in. Look for anything to (hopefully) enjoy in the moment. If Cabrera were to come up against the Yankees, would you go? Who knows. Maybe he'd kneecap A-Rod (disclaimer: that's a joke, barely). Or, maybe they'll be giving away cows again.

"Trying is the first step towards failure." <strike>Peter Angelos</strike&gt Homer Simpson

by drj on May 8, 2006 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

re: cows

I wish they would give away cows again... :(

by CStoneNo37 on May 8, 2006 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Calm down

Sit down for a bit.. relax.. count to 10.. have a glass of the Kool Aid.

It's 33 games into the season, our pitching HAS to get better. Our hitting HAS to get better. We've got B-Rob and Javy on the DL.

I'd rather this all happen 30 games in than 100 games in. There's still 129 games left, and I guarantee at some point this season the O's put together a little run that has everyone saying, "wouldn't it be great if this were for real... wouldn't it be great if the team could just keep playing like this and actually make a push and make it interesting at the end of the season?!??!?" At SOME point this season, we WILL have a moment like that. So stop sulking!...

The BIG letdown's at least 50 games away...

by CStoneNo37 on May 8, 2006 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

Totally

but I'll pass on the Kool Aid and go straight for the hard stuff...

"I'm a big dumb asshole with herpes and I eat babies" - Peter Angelos

by BleedingOrange on May 8, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

i hate this team

it's really just an embarassment. i'll continue to support this team (i'm going to my 9th and 10th games of the year tuesday and friday this week) but i f'ing hate these guys. i spent most of spring training complaining about the guys we got and secretly hoping i was dead wrong... millar, conine, and of course patterson... what did we really expect? it's great to watch ray out there and i really do like markakis, although he's certainly struggled. but our manager has been atrocious and despite the fact that we pile on against bad pitching, we can't scrape runs together against anybody with a decent arm. the o's are horrible and that's just the way it is.

by joet on May 8, 2006 11:00 PM EDT reply actions