For the record

by Scott Christ on Aug 31, 2006 7:49 AM EDT in News & Rumors

Markakis' homer last night was his ninth in August, which is a club record for a rookie. And if you're really wondering if our boy Nicky will get any serious ROY consideration, well, no. He won't. If he'd done this all season then sure, but while he is our second-best hitter (by far), that ain't sayin' much, and too many other rookies (Verlander, Papelbon, Liriano) have had real impact on good teams.

I'm glad to have been way right about Markickass, and frankly the dude has exceeded my expectations. I sort of figured once he made the 25-man roster out of spring training that he'd wind up not playing much, going down, and coming back up in June or July, and probably hitting like .280/.340 or something with a few homers. Instead, he's at .308/.369/.476 with 13 homers (again, nine of them in August). That's a nice season for an established player, let alone a rookie. And even worse, an Oriole rookie.

Individual OPS for the '06 O's:

Tejada .901 (Tejada's highest mark ever, while we're at it)
Markakis .845
Gibbons .805 (268 AB)
Roberts .773
Hernandez .767
Millar .762
Mora .737
Patterson .733

Javy .727
Conine .726

Then there's the issue of Brandon Fahey. I don't know at what point anyone thought he was good or belonged in the majors. I like him, and I still do, because he's a gamer and he's got some brass and he'll take himself out to left field, where he doesn't belong, and he'll make an honest go of it, and he seems like a positively swell young man, but he sucks. Fahey's OPS over 221 AB is .656. That is way, way, way, way, way below Conine or Millar, who have caught hell most of the year for not producing. Sure they are old and Fahey is young, but that doesn't make Fahey better in any way. I guess I'd rather Brandon play SS for me or pinch-run, but that's about it. He cannot hit, and I'd really prefer they try someone else out when the rosters expand. Just not Terrero.

But let's be honest about two other guys.

Mora. It's not getting better. He's bad. His slugging is down to .390. In 521 AB, Melvin has 33 extra-base hits -- 20 doubles, 13 homers.

Patterson. Yeeeeeah, shine kinda wore off on that one, didn't it? I waited for the other shoe to drop, and it has. Corey's hitting .276, which ain't awful, but his OBP is .314, he's stopped stealing eleventy billion bases a week, and all in all he's a lot more like the crap ass Cubs Corey than he is our early season heroics Corey.

Oh, and one more guy.

Millar. Millar has a .363 OBP, which is better than everyone on the team except for Tejada and Markakis. It's better than our leadoff hitter (Roberts is at .359). Millar also has a higher slugging percentage than Mora. I don't want to say that Millar has been of more value to our team this season, because he's not so much better that it makes up for Mora having 60 more hits and 30 more runs and 21 more RBI and what have you, but that's all because Mora plays every day. When he has played, Kevin Millar has been a more effective hitter than Melvin Mora. It's no tip of the cap to Millar, because he's been quite mediocre, but that puts it into perspective a little, doesn't it? Mora has sucked.

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Mora?

Yeah, it's sad isn't it? I keep waiting for him to turn it around and hit like, oh, 9 HR in the month of August but it's not happening. I guess all we can do is wish for the best, cuz ain't nobody gonna trade for him and that overvalued contract.

I'm more up on Patterson. His OBP is pretty weak but that speed of his is a real asset. He's playng kickass defense, he's still a terror on the basepaths even if he isn't still on his impossible midsummer stolen base streak anymore, and beyond that he is a guy that can make things happen. I can remember several games where his stolen base or his speed coming in from 2nd was the difference and won the game for us. Of course I wish he could get on base more but I'm still reasonably happy with him.

by Jonnypops on Aug 31, 2006 8:51 AM EDT reply actions

Perhaps...

I think if Markakis keeps hitting at the clip he's hitting at lately, and tacks on about 9 homers in Sept he'd finish the season without aorund 22 homers and a .320 average. (The .400 some avg he's had lately will continue to boost his season average)

If he can finish like that he MIGHT be in the running for ROY. He won't win because he's an Oriole.

But it'd be cool to see him considered.

Peronally I think there should be a pitching and position player ROY awards. Pitching is just so different than hitting. It's hard to compare the two and say that a pitcher is better than a hitter.

If there was an offensive ROY award though, Markakis wins it hands down.

Oriole Magic! Feel it Happen!

by Mike Boehm on Aug 31, 2006 9:10 AM EDT reply actions

well...

patterson is the best defensive outfielder the o's have and may be the best since brady was any good. fahey is a very good defensive infielder probably better than gomez, definitely cheaper and any comparison b/w mora and millar also must fail b/c mora is far superior in the field.

in a perfect world you have guys that are good defenders and at least league average offensively, but this is the orioles.

by jq higgins on Aug 31, 2006 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

Fahey is avg at best

Here are his BaseballProspectus numbers.

Batting he is below the average player ( -8 BRAA).
He is the same as a replacemant player ( 0 BRAR).

His overall fielding is below average ( -1 FRAA).
He is better than a replacement player ( 5 FRAR).

If you look only at his SS and LF numbers, he's average at SS, below average in LF.

One can nitpick about how these numbers are calculated, and plenty of people have legitimate gripes. But in the end, they still do give a general relative ranking of players, and Fahey comes out as someone who should not be considered anything more than an occasional replacement player called up from AAA.

Mama! Mama! Someone said they made some noise. The cops have shot some girls and boys.

by drj on Aug 31, 2006 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

For the record:

For all the people screaming for the troll to sign a 34 year old singles hitter to a three/yr $29 million dollar/no trade contract--get friggin' used to it!

How the hell can anybody make a judgement that a part time playing rookie sucks forever? Brandon Fahey has played well under the circumstances. A infielder by position, switched to the outfield and by the way, has a few web gems to his credit. He's in a slump right now, but that's what happenes to even old, part time players who never get the time to get in a grove. Fahey is good enough to make the 25 man roster in 2007 as a valuable utility player.

Millar most likly will be the 2007 RH hitting 1B/DH for 2007. Jay Gibbons will be the LH hitting 1B/DH for 2007.

I thought it happier to be dead / to die for a World Series victory, than live for mediocerity.

by chalkdust on Aug 31, 2006 10:35 AM EDT reply actions

Stop bragging

"For all the people screaming for the troll to sign a 34 year old singles hitter to a three/yr $29 million dollar/no trade contract--get friggin' used to it!"

A lot of people expected Mora to decline, it just happened a lot fast than we expected. It's not crazy to hope that a 3B can make it until 36 before stinking up the joint.

"I go to parties, sometimes until 4. It's hard to leave when you can't find the door." Joe Walsh

by birdman on Aug 31, 2006 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I had a feeling he would suck

and I still wanted him to sign him because Mora is a pimp and it would stop us from signing Aaron Boone or something.

by larry bigbie on Aug 31, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

re:

"For all the people screaming for the troll to sign a 34 year old singles hitter to a three/yr $29 million dollar/no trade contract"

And what a singles hitter, slugging .503, .562 and .474 the three years prior to this one. We've already been over this, anyway. We all expected Mora to decline within the contract, just not so much right away.

"How the hell can anybody make a judgement that a part time playing rookie sucks forever?"

I know, right? That's why I didn't. I said he doesn't belong in the majors. He doesn't. He belongs somewhere where he can learn more.

"Fahey is good enough to make the 25 man roster in 2007 as a valuable utility player."

Really? Because he isn't playing like he's good enough for that. He's playing like Augie Ojeda.

"Millar most likly will be the 2007 RH hitting 1B/DH for 2007. Jay Gibbons will be the LH hitting 1B/DH for 2007."

I don't think Millar's coming back, and this team is too stupid to platoon Jay Gibbons.

Mama, Mama look there
Your children are playing in that street again

by Scott Christ on Aug 31, 2006 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Ahh platooning

a lost art.

by larry bigbie on Aug 31, 2006 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

platooning

"this team is too stupid to platoon Jay Gibbons."

Plus Gibby and his agent would throw a stink. Players hate platooning because it kills your market value.

"I go to parties, sometimes until 4. It's hard to leave when you can't find the door." Joe Walsh

by birdman on Aug 31, 2006 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

well, to be frank

Gibby and his agent can kiss my ass. It's the best use of Jay Gibbons, and he's under contract for a while, and I wouldn't cry if he demanded a trade.

Mama, Mama look there
Your children are playing in that street again

by Scott Christ on Sep 1, 2006 5:03 AM EDT up reply actions

markakis

He wont be in the running for RoY, nor does he deserve to. Verlander, Papelbon and Liriano have all pitched at an elite level, easily equal to any of the best pitchers in the game. That would mean Markakis would have to hit like the very best hitters in the game. So unless hes putting up, lets say Manny Ramirez numbers, hes not in the discussion.

by dtran2k3 @ Camden Chat on Aug 31, 2006 10:58 AM EDT reply actions

not really...

they have all pitched at an elite level at times. verlander's had more than his fair share of rough outings and you saw above the papelbon's blown a bunch of saves and liriano has really not even pitched half a season's worth of ball, has he?

not saying markakis ought to be roy, but he shoudl definitely get serious consideration.

by jq higgins on Aug 31, 2006 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

and fahey

I wouldn't mind having him stick around. He can be the super back up, the same role Chris Gomez has played for the past 2 season. Its just that he doesnt need to play unless hes giving someone rest or filling in for an injury. It really shows the poor quality of our team that someone like Fahey is getting semi regular ABs

by dtran2k3 @ Camden Chat on Aug 31, 2006 11:01 AM EDT reply actions

RE:

Fahey seems like a good enough guy; and if his role on this team is a guy who gets about 70 AB's or so and pinch runs for someone like Ramone now and then; then so be it. If not; then no real loss; I don't think a guy like Fahey is really that hard to replace.

The problem is when he gets 200+ AB's in a year; that isn't a good sign for any team.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Aug 31, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Markakis/ROY

Right now it would be hard to pit Markakis against Papelbon, Liriano or Weaver. But Liriano is hurt and Weaver and Papelbon's stats have both been (slowly) getting worse, while Markakis's have skyrocketed. If Markakis has the same stats in September that he's had in August, he ends up at .314 / 22 HR / 75 RBI. It'd be hard not to at least consider him, especially if those other three continue moving toward earth during the same timespan.

by punkrawka on Aug 31, 2006 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

RE:

At best he'll get mentioned, and that's only if he continues to hit as he has. And at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter. I'd much rather see him win World Series MVP anyway (assuming he isn't traded).

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Aug 31, 2006 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

They won't trade him.

They'll let him walk on free agency.

Mama, she has taught me well
Told me when I was young
Son, your life's an open book
Don't close it before it's done

by dayzd toe on Aug 31, 2006 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

trade

If they ever traded a guy like Markakis that's when I'd officially stop watching the Orioles.

Oriole Magic! Feel it Happen!

by Mike Boehm on Aug 31, 2006 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

I just might...

shoot myself and someone else if they let him walk on free agency.

Mama, she has taught me well
Told me when I was young
Son, your life's an open book
Don't close it before it's done

by dayzd toe on Aug 31, 2006 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

no 1st place votes

markakis should get some 2nd or 3rd place votes though, especially after coming on strong over the course of a season. he should place top 5 easily, which isn't too bad considering the monster year this has been for rookies.

and if we can get a reasonable 3rd baseman and left fielder, i'd be happy next year with a bench of Mora, Fahey, Gibbons, Millar, Newhan, and fill-in-the-blanks catcher, with gibbons and millar platooning in the dh. between gibbons and mora, that would be a lot of money tied up in the bench, but they're proven guys, and hell it'd be a lot better than gomez and terrorible.

Ya mama's got an afro...with a chinstrap Ya mama, ya mama, ya mama

by westcoastos on Aug 31, 2006 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

No way Mora rides the bench next year

I don't care about his decline this year. No way it happens.

Mama, I just want you to know, loving you is like food to my soul.

by Stacey on Aug 31, 2006 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

why not

i don't know who's on the market this year, but if we bring in someone who can play decent defense, and gets on base (big if), if mora continues to decline next year, we've got someone who can step in. mora could dh occasionally, and a damn good bat when we would need it. i like melmo, but he is getting older and his skills are going down, and i'd rather be ahead of that instead of treading water.

Ya mama's got an afro...with a chinstrap Ya mama, ya mama, ya mama

by westcoastos on Aug 31, 2006 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

RE:

I just think that we have bigger needs. A legitamate First Baseman, Designated Hitter, Starter and a setup man are much more in need next year than another 3B.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Aug 31, 2006 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

How about the fact

that the Orioles may have a declining third baseman, but they have no real first baseman. There's Millar if they re-sign him, but that's it. And I'd rather have Mora at third than Millar at first. It makes more sense to go after a first baseman via free agency. What are the odds of the ORIOLES getting a LF, 1B, AND 3B in the offseason? Slim to none, I'd say.

Plus, it doesn't matter what any of us think. There is NO WAY they make him a bench player next year.

Mama, I just want you to know, loving you is like food to my soul.

by Stacey on Aug 31, 2006 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

OK

Add in last night's performance, and if you project August into September, Markakis finishes:

.320 / 151 H / 24 HR / 81 RBI / I'm too lazy to work out the OPS

How does that not merit some ROY votes, even 1st place votes, if Papelbon/Weaver/Liriano/Verlander have averageish months to bring their overall stats down?

by punkrawka on Sep 1, 2006 6:32 AM EDT reply actions

re:

Because he plays for the Orioles. Actually he might have a shot because he's getting some attention for the way he's played, and he's coming on at the right time for votes, while Papelbon's heroics were mostly centered early on, the Angels have faded and Weaver's streak is over and Liriano missed time. Verlander being a 15-game winner for the best team in baseball will be tough to overlook though. Plus I don't know how far the extent of Markakis' press really is -- Neyer talks about him, but Neyer talks about lots of things that most mainstream writers/voters don't pay attention to.

Mama, Mama look there
Your children are playing in that street again

by Scott Christ on Sep 1, 2006 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions

It's a lock

If Markakis finishes .320/24HR it's a lock for ROY even if he played for KC. It's the .320 they won't be able to ignor. If it's in the teens, ok, they turn up their noses, it's just the Orioles.

I thought it happier to be dead / to die for a World Series victory, than live for mediocerity.

by chalkdust on Sep 1, 2006 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

What?

With the media slobbering all over NY/BOS cock all the time itll be Papelbon most likely. If not him then Verlander or Liarno, and all three deserve it more than Markakais.

by larry bigbie on Sep 1, 2006 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

re:

Well if Nick ends up at .320, which would put his OBP close enough to .400 to just about make me pee over how much I love him, with 24 homers, he'd deserve more than Liriano's 119 innings would if he doesn't make it back. I mean no doubt Liriano was killer when he was pitching, but he didn't pitch all that much. But yeah, Papelbon or Verlander are gonna be hard to beat, and Nick just isn't on the right team. Actually I think he's on exactly the right team, but you know.

Mama, Mama look there
Your children are playing in that street again

by Scott Christ on Sep 1, 2006 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions