Community Projection '07: Nick Markakis

by Scott Christ on Feb 6, 2007 5:15 PM EST in News & Rumors

This is the end of the line for the projections, and I figured we should finish on the golden boy.

Let's not even get into a big debate. Just quietly post your numbers. And be honest. If you think that the sophomore slump strikes, say so.

                AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   HR   RBI    BB/K
    2006 BAL   491  .291  .351  .448   25   16    62   43/72

That's the line: AB, AVG, OBP, SLG, 2B, HR, RBI, BB/K

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Hot start, slow June July and finishes strong

To end up with good numbers

AB 560
AVG .297
OBP .360
SLG .478
2B 33
HR 24
RBI 71
BB/K 55/66

by merdon1332000 on Feb 6, 2007 7:20 PM EST reply actions

re:

AB 560
AVG .292
OBP .355
SLG .455
2B 30
HR 18
RBI 76
BB/K 52/73

by drj on Feb 6, 2007 10:32 PM EST reply actions

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www.americanlegends.blogspot.com

by JMEnglish on Feb 6, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions

Re:

AB: 520
AVG: .297
OBP: .355
SLG: .470
2B: 28
HR: 17
RBI: 80
BB/K: 55/70

I didn't check my numbers. Oh well. If they don't match up I don't care.

by pipkin on Feb 7, 2007 12:17 AM EST reply actions

Kakes

AB: 580
AVG: .305
OBP: .370
SLG: .495
2B: 32
HR: 25
RBI: 100
BB/K: 48/68

I think Markakis' first half will be much better than last year's. Hopefully he can match last year's second half numbers (with the exception of September).

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 7, 2007 8:58 AM EST reply actions

irrational exuberance

AB: 530
AVG: .401
OBP: .490
SLG: .666
2B: 42
HR: 45
RBI: 157
BB/K: 98/48

by jeremy52 on Feb 7, 2007 10:02 AM EST reply actions

ha

This would be discarded in a statistical study as biased data.

Not like anything here isn't, but this is by far the biggest outlyer to date.

by drj on Feb 7, 2007 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Steady improvement

AB 575
AVG .305
OBP .381
SLG .471
2B 31
HR 21
RBI 75
BB/K 57/80

by silverstadium on Feb 7, 2007 10:22 AM EST reply actions

Markicking Ass

Steps into the role of a young star.

AB 600
AVG .315
OBP .385
SLG .525
2B 38
HR 28
RBI 90
BB/K 57/80

by Jonnypops on Feb 7, 2007 11:31 AM EST reply actions

here it is

ab 525
avg .311
hr 28
rbi 85
obp .372
slg .532
2b 37
k/bb 61/52

Portland,Oregon loves the O's

by westcoastOfan on Feb 7, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions

Mad numbers, yo

AB: 590
AVG: .305
OBP: .360
SLG: .475
2B: 35
HR: 19
RBI: 90
BB/K: 52/80

www.beltwaysportsbeat.com

by CStoneNo37 on Feb 7, 2007 1:55 PM EST reply actions

hmmm

ive been conservative with every projection thus far, but im gonna guess Markakis is gonna totally rock in every way possible. Do I have any evidence to support it? No I dont, just blind hope.

AB 520
AVG .329
OBP .394
SLG .568
2B 42
HR 32
RBI 109
BB/K 58/85

by dtran2k3 @ Camden Chat on Feb 7, 2007 2:53 PM EST reply actions

Drinking the Kool-Aid

AB: 520
AVG: .395
HR: 60

Kidding. Kidding.

AB:495
AVG:.298
OBP:.370
SLG:.495
2B: 33
HR: 22
RBI: 80
BB/K 62/86

by KenDixonFanClub on Feb 7, 2007 5:52 PM EST reply actions

Ken dixon

Doen't he own a car dealership in Laplata?

Them were O's, plus he played a mean Bass! ( I think that what he played?) Murray on drums, Rick vocals, Dixon with the bass and I forgot the rest

ohh well that was a long time ago

by merdon1332000 on Feb 7, 2007 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

Lower

I'm not posting monster numbers because I don't want to curse the guy.

AB:445
AVG:.268
OBP:.335
SLG:.430
2B: 30
HR: 16
RBI: 88
BB/K 58/90

Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to be Cowboys...

by spike2131 on Feb 7, 2007 11:42 PM EST reply actions

Seriously

I'm worried we're going to jinx him...

How about a rough repeat of last years numbers with a few more AB and slight improvement in power/OBP?

AB: 550
AVG: .290
OBP: .360
SLG: .470
2B: 35
HR: 23
RBI: 93
BB/K: 60/100

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 8, 2007 10:50 AM EST reply actions

Dang

I was trying to be conservative, but even I got caught up in it ... that would be a fantastic line.

by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 8, 2007 10:52 AM EST up reply actions

I think he can beat last year's numbers

I think the key to Markakis being productive at or beyond his 2006 levels is his ability to adjust to pitchers who've had time to figure out his tendancies.

I know...I'm being Captain Obvious. That's always the key for a 2nd year player.

My point is that I think Nick will be able to do that. He showed in spring training last year that he could make that kind of adjustments and then did it again in the regular season, pulling out of periods where it appeared that the pitchers had him figured out.

That gives me reason to believe that he can adjust to the 2007 rotations that will know more about him aw well.

If he can do that, I think a season avg. of .300 or better is more than obtainable for this kid.

Oriole Magic! Feel it Happen!

by Mike Boehm on Feb 8, 2007 12:17 PM EST reply actions

John Sickels reports

A pretty good career with a decline starting around 2009. I hope not but we'll see

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/8/18/20410/1436

by merdon1332000 on Feb 8, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

I'm just the mouthpiece for Baseball Prospectus

PECOTA weighted mean:

.290/.350/.449
15 HR
67 RBI
43 BB vs. 75 K
14 VORP
4.6 WARP
MORP - $12,325,000

Again, great value

FWIW, check out Fangraphs.com, which provides projections from Bill James, ZiPS and others all together.

Duquette's to-do list: 1.) Sign Carlos Pena; 2.) Acquire Luke Scott; 3.) Acquire Jeremy Reed; and 4.) Play JR House!

by Wade Boggs Hair on Feb 8, 2007 2:35 PM EST reply actions

re:

I read the other thread with SC's warning before I got here.

I'll take these numbers.

I'd like to see some measue of uncertainty. EQA distribution value at 25%, 50%, 75% and the beta. He doesn't have much history to base these numbers on, so I'd expect some volatility.

by drj on Feb 8, 2007 6:49 PM EST up reply actions