Community Projection '07 Results: Tejada

by Scott Christ on Feb 6, 2007 5:09 PM EST in News & Rumors

My projection: 660 AB, .322/.377/.550, 44 2B, 30 HR, 118 RBI

Overall community line:

    AB      AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   HR   RBI
   648  .322  .374  .517   41   30   122

It'd be a huge year and the best of his career. I don't know that he can match that, and I don't know that he can match mine. But he's going to produce. I think we could very well see Tejada hit for average the way he did last year for a while, and if you give it a thought, it was really quite an admirable .330 that Tejada hit last year. Tejada got nothing to hit a lot of the time in '06, because there was nobody hitting in front of him and nobody hitting behind him most of the time, and if Roberts or someone happened to get on and Miggy was at the plate, they were a little reluctant to give the Orioles one of their only good chances at putting a run across the board. Frankly, Tejada getting 100 RBI last year was about as impressive as 150 in 2004.

Miggy doesn't walk off the island, so to expect him to suddenly say last year, "Yes, give me a free pass!" would be foolish. And he didn't. Instead he poked some singles and hit .330. He could have tried to manhandle pitches that would have resulted in routine fly balls to right field.

I think we'll see this season if Tejada's power is really in decline or if he's been a victim of a rubbish lineup. It may be a little of both, but he should get more fastballs this year if Markakis doesn't drink the Kool-Aid and Huff shows up. Everyone seems to expect a much more useful Oriole lineup surrounding Tejada, and that can only help Miggy.

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As a Tejada fan

...maybe I'm optimistic, but I think that you make a great point about him getting nothing good to hit. I only get a chance to see him play when he's against the Sox or on ESPN, but my observation was that he got a lot of nibbling pitchers, who weren't exactly afraid of Ramon Hernandez--to their own detriment--or Jay Gibbons. I don't vote on your community projections, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tejada had a terrific year.

by NHZ @ Camden Chat on Feb 7, 2007 12:19 AM EST reply actions

Word up.

I saw him hit a number of long, long shots last year. Like 30 rows back shots. So it's hard for me to buy that he's in a dramatic physical decline. Of course I'm thoroughly biased.

by Jonnypops on Feb 7, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

PECOTA on Miggy

FWIW, here's the PECOTA weighted mean...

.310/.356/.486
22 HR
96 RBI
40 BB vs. 74 K
VORP - 46
WARP - 7.7
MORP - $26,075,000

The money really strikes me...wow

The CC community projection is about the 85th percentile of PECOTA. The weighted mean is between 50th and 60th percentiles.

No complaints either way...an .840 OPS shortstop isn't easy to find, and the MORP makes his deal look like a bargain

Duquette's to-do list: 1.) Sign Carlos Pena; 2.) Acquire Luke Scott; 3.) Acquire Jeremy Reed; and 4.) Play JR House!

by Wade Boggs Hair on Feb 8, 2007 2:29 PM EST reply actions

yeah

the market got real wacky this offseason. If Tejada was a free agent, he would have probably gotten a better contract than Soriano did

by dtran2k3 @ Camden Chat on Feb 8, 2007 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

re:

We've reached our PECOTA limit on this site. I don't MIND you posting the Markakis and Tejada numbers (and they won't either), but since we've done a couple others, too, this has to be curbed lest they get mighty pissed about me giving away their pay content for free.

"I don't want any credit. I'm not looking for credit. You know what? I don't want any blame if we're horse shit, either." -- Jim Leyland

by Scott Christ on Feb 8, 2007 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

darn

I wanted to see how ridiculous the Markakis projections turn out compared to BP.

Everything here is biased. Did anyone get wailed on - maybe Wright? I'm too lazy to look.

by drj on Feb 8, 2007 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Good call.

In lieu, check out Fangraphs.com

Here's the link for Tejada...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=941&position=SS

Most predict ~.870 OPS and ~100 runs created. I think the bigger question is his fielding as he ages (even though he's only 31). But, in a league where Derek Jeter can win not one but two gold gloves, anything is possible.

"[Jason] Giambi walks too much. He's clogging up the bases with all that walking." - Tim McCarver

by Wade Boggs Hair on Feb 8, 2007 11:38 PM EST up reply actions