Trachsel v. Guthrie: This is our big debate
by Scott Christ on Mar 19, 2007 3:28 AM EDT
in News & Rumors
Email
PrintA recent diary from drj sparked a good bit of conversation about the race -- or non-race -- for the fifth spot in the O's rotation. Veteran Steve Trachsel, signed to replace the injured Kris Benson, has, frankly, been for shit this spring. Trachsel has said that it means nothing and that he's simply trying to get his arm strength up to 100% by Opening Day, but Trachsel was hurt all of 2005 and wasn't much in the way of not bad in 2006 for the Mets.
Then there's Jeremy Guthrie, who probably hasn't even really been in management's thoughts so much as being a fifth starter. He has pitched pretty well this spring, picked up from the Indians on waivers because Mazzone or someone likes his arm.
I want to go a little further into this. I support Steve Trachsel for the time being. This is because Jeremy Guthrie has long been a disappointment. He was given a $3 million signing bonus by Cleveland after he graduated from Stanford, but he was 23 by then, having done a Mormon mission. His time with Buffalo in 2006 -- 3.15 ERA over 123 innings -- was the first time in years that he had pitched well. He's 28 years old -- not a prospect, and not even quite a flameout since he never had any flame.
I don't want to root against the dude, but Guthrie stinks. We got him on waivers for a reason.
Trachsel is no prize, either. He's old, his arm isn't what it used to be (and it was never anything special), and he hasn't pitched well in a while himself. And yes, he looks awful this spring, while Guthrie doesn't. But if spring training starts meaning more to veteran ballplayers than getting in shape and not hurting yourself, then this won't be America anymore. Guthrie has almost assuredly "worked harder" than Trachsel this spring, because Guthrie needed to go all-out just to make the team, or even just to have a job in baseball, period. Trachsel got a late jump on everything this year, and was almost certainly going to get a rotation spot the moment he was signed.
I'm also not saying that Trachsel is half-assing his spring or anything, but Guthrie has probably had to push himself to perform like this is August and it's a pennant race, whereas Trachsel was probably told to get comfortable, get to know his teammates, and get his arm in shape as quickly as he could. I really doubt Trachsel and Guthrie have had the same mindframes this spring.
I don't think Trachsel will be very good, but for the time being, my gut says to at least give him his shot, or else there was no point to bringing him to Fort Lauderdale to begin with. If the regular season starts and he sucks for a few turns in the rotation, then get rid of him and try Guthrie or Hayden Penn or someone else. No one wants Russ Ortiz again, obviously. But let's not panic about Trachsel right now, or get all gushy for Guthrie. It's the middle of March.
(Kinda makes a guy or gal miss Kris Benson, though, doesn't it?)
55 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Trachsel or Guthrie or...
I don't put a lot of stock in Trachsel's demure denials of his spring training shellings -- c'mon, the guy's been Iwo Jima'ed to an extent hard to confuse with the results of "trying some new stuff," "getting my bearings," or "rounding into shape." If he gives this team three quality starts in April-May, I will be happily stunned. Prediction: two starts-bullpen-gone.
Which leaves the enigmatic Guthrie-- a very smart guy (Stanford, like Mussina) and also a veteran...Mormon missionary?!? Yikes, didn't I see him in an airport wearing orange robes and a pony tail once? No wait, that's another missionary cult. I think. Anyway, while Guthrie clearly has more years left to claw his way toward innings-eating mediocrity than Trachsel does to re-establish his, we're still looking at a classic lose-lose situation. Neither of these guys is in a position to materially affect the team's all-too-dwindling fortunes, alas.
It's either Hayden Penn or the pickle, I say.
Bashing?
Anyway, regarding Guthrie, he was a pretty hot prospect at one point, making several "top flight" lists and didn't quite pan out, yes. But at different times on this very blog several have suggested that a player needs a "change of scenery" or coaching to really reach their potential. Is it possible that this is what we're seeing here? I mean, obviously he's working his butt off, playing like it matters more than it does, to show the team that he's worth their waver pick up, but there may also be a factor of time, place, and difference of ball club.
I'm pretty excited to see what he does in long relief. If he keeps it going the way he has in Spring Training, and Trachsel or Wright don't pan out, the O's will have another option.
Penn continues to confuse me. '05 was pretty inspiring. '06...not very much at all. This spring...about the same as last season.
re:
This is why I no longer buy tickets in advance. I plop down good cash, so I may as well increase my odds of seeing a decent showing from the home team.
No need
agreed
As for trips back home. Sure, I plan a trip when the O's are in town and pick a pitcher. I don't plan those trips when either of the Yankees are in town. I'm surrounded by enough of that excess enough on a daily basis.
Hell,
The only thing that keeps me going is some kind of sense of loyalty and revulsion that Camden Yards could ever be turned into a second home for these d-bags.
And I also agree about the above comments by Dr. Orpheus. Mormonism is no more or less ridiculous than any other mainstream religion. Further, the term "cult" is a loaded and dangerous word. I'd only use it when referring to a group that encourages death of its own members (and even that makes me a bit queasy). After all, Christianity was once considered a dangerous cult (perhaps an overused example, but still).
Boston Fans v. Yankee Fans
The reason I prefer the Boston fans is that they're the more pathetic of the two. They never win the division, ever. Besides 2004 they always, always came up short. So although they are obnoxious and completely unrealistic about their chances almost every year, they still have that humility stuck in the back of their heads where they know, deep in their soul, that they are some of the biggest losers in the history of team sports.
Yankee fans are just assholes. Their team has the greatest resources and they flaunt the domination that brings them at every opportunity. I can't blame them. But I also cannot stand them.
In terms of their behavior at Camden Yards Yanks fans are much worse. Boston fans actually shut up when they're losing, Yanks fans do not. They cheer and act like their blowing the O's out regardless of what the scoreboard reads. Yanks fans also have a million stupid cheers. They do roll call a million times. They chant "Hip Hip Jorge!!!" every time Posada comes to bat. Last year they chanted "MVP!! MVP!!" everytime Jeter was up. The BoSox fans just chant that unimaginative "Let's Go Red Sox" over and over and over...annoying sure, but still pretty pathetic, and therefore not as bad.
by Jonnypops on Mar 19, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I could argue either side, really
That is just a generalization, obviously. I'm sure there are plenty of fine Red Sox fans. I know our own 2632 likes them and she seems like a lovely person. Also, my best friend is a Yankees fan and I think that despite all of my efforts she and her family have worn down my hatred a little bit, so I tend to look more kindly on the Yankee fans than I have in years past.
well...
the red sox fan: "x is out to get me."
the yankees fan: "x is just jealous."
thank you, that'll be two shiny nickels.
by jq higgins on Mar 19, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
RE:
by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 19, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Correction
I'll take the Sox fans
They were GREAT people to watch a game with up until 2005, when suddenly the real Sox fans didn't come anymore and were replaced by a bunch of big talking bandwagoners who all bought those pre distressed Sox hats in October the previous year.
They were obnoxious but shut up real quick when you put them in their place as a bandwagoner.
The Yankee fans on the other hand....dear sweet lord....what a miserable existance those saps lead. It's like all they know how to do is act cocky and fight, all over a desire to believe that their steroid infested cheating team is superior to all other existance in the universe.
Those are the truely insufferable creatures in sports.
by Mike Boehm on Mar 19, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What???
re:
by Scott Christ on Mar 19, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you mean...
by Jonnypops on Mar 19, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
re:
by Scott Christ on Mar 19, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
New England
by Jonnypops on Mar 19, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like home alright!
re:
As best I can tell, the Red Sox cap hasn't made deep penetration into the backwoods culture. I still see mostly hunting and feed caps and the likes. The Red Sox cap has completely overtaken the more metropolitan/suburban areas. Although I do see the Yankee hat creeping back into the underclass in the cities.
yeah
by Awesome Mike Awesome on Mar 19, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
or?
by jq higgins on Mar 19, 2007 9:32 AM EDT reply actions
Four man rotation
Four man rotation
I'm in!
It's cheaper for the team. It strengthens arms better. It gives you more options for replacements when someone goes down with an injury. 4 man rotations pitched deeper into games with lower pitch counts than 5 man rotations do.
It's just the best way for everyone except the player's union, who will shit a brick over the idea. But screw Donald Fehr.
by Mike Boehm on Mar 20, 2007 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Either one
by Mike Boehm on Mar 19, 2007 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
The Possibility of a Bargain
What I think is so appealing to so many people about Guthrie is the possibility that he could be a bargain. That he could be something for nothing. And people love a bargain...they love something for nothing. Now you can see this at the nearest place they sell lotto tickets in your neighborhood or you can see it in the reaction around here last season regarding the surprising performance of one Corey Patterson. We got Patterson for jack shit, he ended up being a serviceable CF with some real skills, but some real flaws as well, most notably a real lack of both plate discipine and the ability to hit lefties. People loved him though because he came cheap and far exceeded expectations.
When I think about using Guthrie it's more or less the same hope at work. I want to be on the receiving end of a David Ortiz Rule 5 pickup that turns around the franchise. It probably won't happen...but there are certain risks the FO needs to take to even allow it to happen. Personally I thought showing some confidence in Guthrie and putting him in there as the 5th starter might really help the guy. And I didn't see benching the supposedly safer alternative of Trax as all that safe at all. The guy is really stinking up the place and giving up an alarming number of fly balls on a team that plays in a hitters park.
But the rotation is set. I hope Trax does well...but if he starts pitching the way I fear, I hope to God the organization will have learned their lesson and replace him sooner rather than later.
by Jonnypops on Mar 19, 2007 11:55 AM EDT reply actions
Trachsel
Some team out there would take Trachsel off our hands in trade if it doesn't work out. I share the same hope as Jonnypops that provided he does stink up the joint, Perlozzo doesn't let him suck for awhile before he makes a move.
Trachsel
This says it better than I can: Steve Trachsel Is Slow, Crappy
by erudite @ Camden Chat on Mar 19, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions
we
He is someone that might stay in the rotation 2-3 years.
If he stinks the place up then we put in Trachsel.
by westcoastOfan on Mar 19, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Yup,
Benson > Trachsel > Roddy > Ortiz ≥ Brower
Where Penn and Guthrie fit into the above equation remains to be seen.
i don't think it matters
some notable AL 5th starters last year, by number of games started for his team:
yankees, shawn chacon - 11 starts, 5-3, 7.00 e.r.a.
oakland, kirk saarloos - 16 starts, 7-7, 4.75 e.r.a.
tigers, zach miner - 16 starts, 7-6, 4.84 e.r.a.
twins, bonser/baker - 18 and 16 starts, 7-6 and 5-8, 4.22 and 6.37 **liriano actually had 16 starts too, but he was really their number 2 and got hurt
angels, jeff weaver - 16 starts, 3-10, 6.29 e.r.a.
and these are the good teams. we could keep going, but you get the point. 95% of 5th starters are terrible, but more importantly, they just don't get the ball that much. 13-18 games, go in there and try not to go 0-15. maybe last through the 5th inning. trachsel, guthrie, penn, it won't matter.
Meanwhile, Peter Angelos opens mouth...
Boswell hits most of the right notes in this entry and certainly deserves credit for maintaining enough feeling for the club, after all these PA years, to remain genuinely offended (and more than a little saddened) by what's happened. Most major baseball commentators either don't care or simply went numb years ago.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/19/AR2007031901643.html
[And speaking of offended, a sidebar apology here to "Dr. Orpheus" and "pipkin": Rest assured that I will never, ever repeat the name of (or otherwise mention) another missionary cult on this site. As to the bona fides and status of the one touched upon in passing here yesterday, I claim no particular expertise on (or interest in) its practices, leaving that to more qualified (and interested) people at the source itself:
http://www.cc.utah.edu/~njb4/mormoncult.html
http://www.exmormon.org/mormon/mormon387.htm
Reading Peter Angelos's ever-so-well-modulated ravings reminds us all that there are lots more interesting, entertaining and useful things to do with our time (e.g. invent a mechanism for trading an owner; organize the next Fan Depreciation Day; pass legislation requiring a grand jury, chaired by Cal, to examine the last decade of team ownership and bring charges accordingly; and on and on) than being accosted by people in airports or making stray comments about them.
So thanks to Boswell for this latest stimulus, and let's get on with business!
dudeman...
by jq higgins on Mar 20, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
agreed
5th Starter/Long Reliever
Guthrie is out of options so he gets to be the club's long man out of the bullpen.
Trachsel was a 15 game winner last year (until he got to the play-offs) and is running out of time to re-capture his personal lighting in bottle. But the Orioles need his experience and hopefully a 15 win season. Pencil him in to the 5th starter roll.
Rob Bell
by Scott Christ on Mar 20, 2007 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
orioles.mlb.com
I don't know Spencer Fordin from Adam. Here's his take on Trachsel at orioles.mlb.com
Mailbag: Will the O's watch Trachsel?
In Trachsel's specific case, he'll likely last for most or all of the season as well. Baltimore needs a pitcher to log innings and keep the bullpen from overextending itself, and Trachsel has thrown 200 innings or more six times in his career. That may not happen this year, but if any other pitcher gets hurt, his job gets safer.
This is followed by the Guthrie/Penn may get a shot, or even Olsen may rocket up.
I have a feeling we'll see plenty of Trachsel.
Sounds like...
by Jonnypops on Mar 20, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
well, actually
Jeremy Guthrie has a 6.08 ERA in the majors -- 15 games of relief, one start.
If this were "We shouldn't have signed Trachsel," then OK. But who else were we going to use? Guthrie? He sucks, too. Penn? He's been torched in the majors. Kris Benson is out for the year and somebody had to take the ball every fifth day. If you prefer Jose Lima or Mark Redman or someone, then sweet. The real problem is that Benson is hurt -- with him healthy, we aren't having this discussion, and Jaret Wright is the fifth starter.
At the end of the day, though, it's the fifth starter. Trachsel has a case of the Sucks, but so do most of them.
by Scott Christ on Mar 20, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Yikes almighty...
Now as to the acquisition, I'm fine with having Trax on the team. He was the best of a number of bad, bad options. I just don't think he deserves any loyalty whatsoever until he earns it...and unfortunately I think the prospects of him earning it are slim to none.
by Jonnypops on Mar 20, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
How long?
If this team is going to have any shot of making waves this year (yes, i'm still drinking the KOOL-AID) they need to get out to a fast start. Wearing out your bullpen early because you have to bring in a reliever in top of the fourth every 5 days is not going to help!
by BENNYBIRDMAN on Mar 20, 2007 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
where have you gone Bruce Chen?
by jeremy52 on Mar 20, 2007 4:23 PM EDT reply actions
Well, it should be
He had a terrible 2006. But his two years prior to 2006 were decent enough. Remember he pitched nearly 200 innings in 2005, won 13 games, and had an ERA of 3.83. For a fifth starter, those are terrific numbers.
Is it possible that Chen worked well with Miller (who encouraged him to change speeds more) but that Mazzone (who was more obsessed with down-and-away) messed up his mechanics?
Time will tell as Chen seems more than likely to make the majors with the Rangers this year. His spring stats thus far (through Sunday)
- 20-Feb...After Chen went 5-0 with a 0.72 ERA in the winter Puerto Rican League, the Rangers signed him to a Minor League contract and invited him to Spring Training. Chen went 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA in 2006, but the Rangers are intrigued by his record in 2005 when he had 13 wins and a 3.83 ERA. Pitching coach Mark Connor said, "I want to talk to him and get some of his thoughts on what went wrong - and what we can do to fix it."
- 4-Mar...Chen made his first appearance of the spring and retired six straight hitters.
- 10-Mar...Bruce Chen pitched three shutout innings, giving up four hits and walking two with no strikeouts yesterday. He might not have a great WHIP, but he still has not allowed any runs to score this spring.
- 14-Mar...Chen pitched 3 2/3 innings of four-hit ball with six strikeouts, his only earned run coming on a HR. He has posted an ERA of 1.04 so far this spring.
- 18-Mar...Chen started for the first time and pitched three scoreless innings against the Colorado Rockies.
Sorry, Z
That said, I don't wish Chen anything bad at all, I'd love to see him come back as a full-time quality starter. But I don't "turn my lonely eyes to him," that's all. I don't bank on him showing us we're stupid for letting him go.
right there with you
I'm just saying that if we hadn't let him go, people would be pretty jazzed to se him pitching this way again.
Of course, the paradox is: if we hadn't let him go, he might not be pitching this way, since he wouldn't have had the fresh start/new pitching coach, etc.
yeah,,,
but, yeah, i thought chen was a great story and it is also true that, iirc, his peripherals indicated that he wasn't nearly as bad as his era and record suggested...but what so i know?
by jq higgins on Mar 21, 2007 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
my mother's sister's husband's brother...
Oh, and Traschel ain't scared of no DH rule.
by jeremy52 on Mar 21, 2007 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
Rules
The second rule of the Chen / Lopez theory is that you don't talk about the Chen / Lopez theory!
by Mike Boehm on Mar 21, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post Z
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Official Sponsor of Camden Chat GameThreads
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
