Somewhat plausible scenario

by rp0806 on Mar 30, 2007 2:05 PM EDT

Here's my somewhat plausible playoff contender scenario. Last year, the Orioles scored ~770 runs and gave up 900, and won 70 games. The offense was a bit below average and the pitching was horrible. The biggest problem with the offense was that they got absolutely no production out of LF and DH. With Huff, Payton, and Gibbons improving the offense from those positions, minor improvement from Markakis, and equal production (on balance) from everyone else, I think they can have a league average offense and score ~800 runs.

On the pitching side, last year the starters gave up 650 runs in 1000 innings. If EB/AL/DC can give the Orioles 600 innings of 4.00 pitching, and ST/JW/HP/GO can give them 400 innings of 5.00 pitching, the rotation will give up 500 runs. The bullpen last year gave up 250 runs in 420 innings, for a 5.4 ERA. If they can cut that to 200 runs, they'll have a 4.30 ERA, and the staff as a whole will give up 700 runs.

800 runs scored and 700 runs against works out to a .566 winning %, or a 92-70 record. Unrealistic? Probably. But it doesn't seem crazy.

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One part is crazy

600 innings of 4.00 pitching ain't happening from those three. I'd be ecstatic with 550 innings of 4.50 pitching from that trio.

by punkrawka on Mar 30, 2007 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

RE:

Not sure why that would make you ecstatic, the three had an ERA of 4.48 last year, so I definitely wouldn't be ecstatic to see no improvement.

And I would probably expect about 550 innings from the 3.

momma take a look now at what your boy has done; he's walking around like he's number one; he went downtown and bought him a gun.

by BirdFanInPhilly on Mar 30, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess it depends...

...on your definition of "crazy." I don't think 600 innings of 4.00 pitching is likely, but I also don't think it's crazy. 210 innings at 3.75 from Bedard, 200 innings at 4.00 from Loewen, and 190 innings at 4.25 from Cabrera doesn't seem implausible.

But this discussion again highlights the fact that the season basically turns on the success of those 3. The offense will probably be mediocre but ok, the bullpen will probably rebound, and Wright, Traschel, et. al. will be lousy (although hopefully not R. Ortiz lousy), so the big question is the top of the rotation.

by rp0806 on Mar 30, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

loewen

i honestly think we're going to get a "holy shit" season from loewen. everything i've read and everything i've looked at this spring (yeah, i'm drinking march kool-ade)says he's going to be a significantly different pitcher from what we saw last season. the guy has a number 1 arm and i really wouldn't be surprised if we look back on 2007 and see the birth of a two headed lefty monster at the top of our rotation.

and i think the 210/3.75 for bedard is even a little bit conservative. he had a 3.76 e.r.a. last season, so why wouldn't he improve a bit.

i say cabrera has the worst e.r.a of the three when it's all over and he comes in at 4.35 this season. so i don't think a 4.00 for the group is unrealistic at all. 600 innings may be, given the unlikeliness of all three making 35 starts, but 550 would be fine.

i think the biggest determinant of this season will be the play of melvin mora. roberts will be roberts. markakis and tejada will hit, as will huff and ramon. but if we can keep the number 2 spot from being a black hole, we'll score enough runs.

87-75, but third place again.

by joet on Mar 31, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

scratch that "again" after third place

by joet on Mar 31, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Traschel

Didn't he win 15 last year?

I'd take that and a few ND, with what ever ERA you want

by merdon1332000 on Apr 1, 2007 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

sure me too

That means the team won the game. However we do not have the 2006 Mets lineup, so good luck getting 15 wins out of Trachsel with a similarly shit performance as last year.

"I don't want any credit. I'm not looking for credit. You know what? I don't want any blame if we're horse shit, either." -- Jim Leyland

by Scott Christ on Apr 1, 2007 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

says joe sheehan at BP...

#20: Baltimore Orioles, 79-83 record, third in AL East, 791 RS, 809 RA. Is there a "Mazzone Effect" north of Atlanta? This may be the year we find out, as the longtime Braves' pitching coach enters his second season with the Birds. How Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen pitch under Leo Mazzone's tutelage will make all the difference this season; my prediction assumes a small improvement for the two, as well as a better performance in the sixth through eighth innings by a revamped bullpen. I'm not sold on the offense, which includes a lot of low-OBP guys and doesn't have the power that, say, last year's Tigers did. In another division, this is a fringe wild-card contender.

by jq higgins on Mar 30, 2007 3:23 PM EDT reply actions