Someone pretend they saw this coming

by SC on Jun 11, 2007 1:43 PM EDT in News Comment 26 comments

American League ERA leaders:

Dan Haren, OAK 1.58
Chad Gaudin, OAK 2.43
John Lackey, LAA 2.60
Jeremy Guthrie, BAL 2.70
Kelvim Escobar, LAA 2.76

Haren at an astonishing 1.58 is weird enough. Gaudin at 2.43 is freakin' wacky. JEREMY GUTHRIE being fourth in the league in ERA?

I want to go on record right now. I dissed Guthrie's potential, was skeptical about him being pushed into the rotation, and was more than ready to chalk him up as another Mazzone boner flameout. But that young man has broughten it this season, and he's usually rewarded with a no-decision.

In a season where I've grown to hate most of the team and its leadership, Jeremy Guthrie has been a shining light. Big ups to Jeremy Guthrie, my apologies to him for my doubts (well, kind of), and a hearty "hurrah!" for his efforts. Keep it rolling, dude.

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"Broughten"?

You're sounding like my wife.

Guthrie has been KICK. ASS. Please see this thread. Just think, Jeremy, it can only get better if you keep pitchin' your ass off.

2632 is ALL KNOWING and Omnipresent and still has admin powers!! PS- I Heart A-Rod

by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2007 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guthrie has clearly broughtened

SC's horizons. Hey, mine too.

Root-a-toot tootin' Vladimir Putin Ain't-a got nootin' On Sammy the P.

by Titov on Jun 11, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

at least

he didn't go "brung."

2632 is ALL KNOWING and Omnipresent and still has admin powers!! PS- I Heart A-Rod

by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consider it broughten!

SC, you're not the only one that saw "Not Another Teen Movie." Molly Ringwald at the end is worth the price of the DVD alone.

by duck on Jun 11, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another thing to note

Two Angels leading in ERA? I've never thought of them as having quality pitching. Good for them.

by exitfare on Jun 11, 2007 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

Guthrie's pitching days are the only games I tune into these days. That being said, someone has to look up his secondary stats and see if he's on a lucky roll.

Man I just hope this continues.

CAN ANGELOS!

by drj on Jun 11, 2007 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for starters:

K/BB = 3.82 0.93 WHIP is 2nd in AL

by 2632 on Jun 11, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If by secondary stats

you mean WHIP, then you'll be extremely pleased, as Guthrie's is currently at 0.93 behind only Haren amongst all starters in MLB.

If you're talking about H/9, Guthrie is 5th with 6.89.

BB/9? 4th amongst all starters with 1.49.

K:BB Ratio? Guthrie is 14th with 3.82.

Pitches/IP? A stat O's starters have been woefully fucking up for god knows how long now. Guthrie's 4th amongst all starters with 13.86.

I've been pushing this guy ever since ST, advocating him being in the rotation in place of Trax. Turns out they are both very welcome additions to the pitching staff. I've apologized to Trax repeatedly and I'll do it again, sorry Steve. But I am ecstatic about Guthrie.

by Jonnypops on Jun 11, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

Yep, his secondary stats are very encouraging. This isnt simply a string of good luck leading to an artificially low ERA. This is legit, great pitching.

by UMterp08 on Jun 11, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

This year is clearly very different from all the preceding. I was thinking of looking at FIP and BABIP.

Guthrie HBT
Guthrie FanGraphs

ERA FIP xFIP BABIP 2.70 3.36 3.93 .244

According to these numbers his fielding independent ERA (both standard and normalized) are above his current ERA. While 3.36 and even 3.93 is nothing to sneeze at, it is an indication he's either getting defensive help or has had a string of some luck.

The MLB average for BABIP is around .300 and Guthrie is at .244. That seems rather low (right?) and I assume we should expect to see some upwards trend.

I'm not saying Guthrie is due for a complete meltdown. I'm just saying a few measurements indicate his stats are due for an uptick (as does his past performance). I can deal with the law of averages evening things out a bit. We're all hoping that we have a new pitcher and the correction won't be quite so large.

CAN ANGELOS!

by drj on Jun 11, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guthrie

Interestingly enough, Guthrie's minor league stats doesn't suggest he'll be really good in the big leagues. I don't know if Guthrie has added a pitch, gained velocity or whatever, but Guthrie has morphed into another pitcher since landing in Bal.

by birdman on Jun 11, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guthrie's college career, broughtened to you...

by Stanford University, home of the Fighting Cardinal Robber Barons

http://gostanford.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/guthrie_jeremy00.html

Root-a-toot tootin' Vladimir Putin Ain't-a got nootin' On Sammy the P.

by Titov on Jun 11, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stanford, eh?

Didn't Darth Mussina go there too?

"Baltimore? That's like being hit in the head with a crowbar once a day."

by spike2131 on Jun 11, 2007 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup, it's always been a very good source...

of pitchers and quarterbacks. Oh, and tennis players. And golfers-- well, at least two: Tiger and now Michelle Wie, though she's not NCAA eligible in golf...which certain alumni hope means she will be available to play linebacker or possibly tight end.

Root-a-toot tootin' Vladimir Putin Ain't-a got nootin' On Sammy the P.

by Titov on Jun 12, 2007 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that

reminds me. How is OSU doing?

THEY WON
they are going to the College WS!

The amazin' Kakes

by westcoastOfan on Jun 11, 2007 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guthrie

He & Roberts are the few bright spots on this
miserable bunch of losers.Broughtened to you
by a very old Orioles fan.Good stuff seen here.

by hagersbush on Jun 11, 2007 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

If Guthrie's ERA would be as low if the O's scored runs for him, may be less motivated.

by Baltimo on Jun 11, 2007 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it

it is very surprising considiring past years:

The amazin' Kakes

by westcoastOfan on Jun 11, 2007 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Omigod, dayzd!

You've got Westy doing his math homework online! Next thing you know, he's going to try to turn in his CC posts for extra credit.

Root-a-toot tootin' Vladimir Putin Ain't-a got nootin' On Sammy the P.

by Titov on Jun 12, 2007 1:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

actually

I got those off of baseball graphs.com

I suck at making graphs on the computer.

THIS GUY IS GOOD!

by westcoastOfan on Jun 12, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whaz Uppp!

I am reminded that Steve Trachel and Kris Benson received the same labels and dismissals as "turds" that Jeremy Guthrie received by this blog. This is all in spite of Guthrie's career at Stanford University and the fact he was a first round draft choice who was all but out of baseball for two years because of a two-year mission for the Mormon church. To much reliance on stats and no common sense in evaluating baseball talent is a failure of small minds. Ask The Cleveland Indians. I mean really dude, if you have four good pitches and a 96-97 mph fast ball how much brains does it take to recognize potential and quick returns on investment?

I thought it happier to be dead / to die for a World Series victory, than live for mediocerity.

by chalkdust on Jun 12, 2007 7:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well that depends on if you can throw

all of those pitches for strikes.

Which I don't believe he did until this year.

But hey thats just a small brains opinion.

President and Member of the Jayhawk Owens fan club.

by BENNYBIRDMAN on Jun 12, 2007 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are so right

take a look at these:http://www.camdenchat.com/comments/2007/6/11/13437/0180/15#15

THIS GUY IS GOOD!

by westcoastOfan on Jun 12, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remind me

not to hire you for a customer service or sales job.

by Jonnypops on Jun 12, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

guthrie

"I mean really dude, if you have four good pitches and a 96-97 mph fast ball how much brains does it take to recognize potential and quick returns on investment?"

Those four pitches and 96 mph fast balls were quite hittable in the minors. I don't know why it would be unreasonable to think Guthrie might struggle in the majors.

by birdman on Jun 12, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs