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Bedard: AL CY Young?

Amy Young has a "fluff" piece on Bedard, over at ESPN.  

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2978076&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab5pos1

You've got to love his attitude towards the media.  Honestly, if a bunch of reporters showed up at my office every day at 5pm asking me questions, I'd tell them to fuck off, too.

Star-divide

Bedard has been getting quite a bit of love on BBTN regarding his Cy Young chances.  Essentially, it looks like it's going to come down to a two-man race, between Bedard and Beckett.  Beckett has more wins (a meaningless statistic), and Bedard has more Ks.  In fact, let's just do ourselves a comparison:

            W  L  ERA  WHIP  Ks  BBs H/9 BB/9 SO/9
Bedard   12 4  2.98 1.077 207 52   7.1 2.4  10.5
Beckett  15 5  3.24 1.101 148 30   9.0 1.4  8.7

This isn't even close, really.  Despite the fact that Bedard has walked more, his WHIP is still lower.  His ERA is lower.  And, even though Bedard pitchers in a hitters park, he still blows Beckett away with Park-Adjusted ERA:

        Park-Adjusted ERA
Bedard  3.09
Beckett 3.36

Yet, on a recent BBTN segment, Peter Gammons reported that, despite all these numbers, despite the fact that Bedard seems to have, like, eight different pitches, when asked who they'd want to start game 7 of a WS, most of the league's GMs said Beckett.

I'm a huge fan of Beckett.  I really am.  I marked in 2003 like nobody's business (I went to college in Miami).  But this is 2007, and these numbers don't lie.  A better bullpen might mean that Bedards W-L record would be improved.  But since W-L is irrelevent, Bedard should be this year's Cy Young winner.

Since he plays for the Orioles, though....

Update [2007-8-18 15:15:22 by madhatternalice]:: I can't believe I didn't talk about Haren here. I made up for it in the comments, but I'm adding the pertinent info for both him and Johan Santana here:

        W L ERA WHIP Ks BBs H/9 BB/9 SO/9
Bedard 12 4 2.98 1.077 207 52 7.1 2.4 10.5
Beckett 15 5 3.24 1.101 148 30 9.0 1.4 8.7
Haren 13 4 2.54 1.125 138 46 8.2 2.0 6.8
Santana 12 9 3.02 1.048 174 39 7.1 1.7 8.9

Now, those are some nice pitchers. Santana has a better WHIP, but a higher ERA. He's also on pace for his lowest strikeout total since 2003. He also doesn't get a lot of run support (9 losses??) And while smart people don't give a lot of credence to wins/losses, the voters do.

How about Quality Starts? How often does a pitcher not blow up?
        Starts Quality Starts Percentage of QS
Bedard 26 20 76.9%
Beckett 23 16 69.6%
Haren 26 24 92.3%
Santana 25 19 76.0%

Haren, far and away, is the most consistent pitcher of the 4. But his higher WHIP shows that he's playing with fire.

Based on pure numbers, and all biases aside, it's a toss up between Haren and Bedard. But I guess that's why they play a full season. Beckett will be considered only because he's playing for a contender. Santana might be playing for a contender; I've maintained since the ASB that Detroit would slide, and Cleveland would take the division, and Minny would take the WC.

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0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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What happened to Haren?
And Santana?. I'd day those two and Bedard have all had better years than Beckett. Escobar and Beckett are in the next tier after those three.

Beckett's big advantage is he has a lot more run support than those other guys.

by drj on Aug 18, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

haren
I'd honestly forgotten about Haren; I was so incensed at the BBTN story.

So let's go into more detail.

            W  L  ERA  WHIP  Ks  BBs H/9 BB/9 SO/9
Bedard   12 4  2.98 1.077 207 52   7.1 2.4  10.5
Beckett  15 5  3.24 1.101 148 30   9.0 1.4  8.7
Haren    13 4  2.54 1.125 138 46   8.2 2.0  6.8
Santana  12 9  3.02 1.048 174 39   7.1 1.7  8.9

Now, those are some nice pitchers.  Santana has a better WHIP, but a higher ERA.  He's also on pace for his lowest strikeout total since 2003.  He also doesn't get a lot of run support (9 losses??)  And while smart people don't give a lot of credence to wins/losses, the voters do.

How about Quality Starts?  How often does a pitcher not blow up?

         Starts  Quality Starts  Percentage of QS
Bedard     26          20             76.9%
Beckett    23          16             69.6%
Haren      26          24             92.3%
Santana    25          19             76.0%

Haren, far and away, is the most consistent pitcher of the 4.  But his higher WHIP shows that he's playing with fire.

Based on pure numbers, and all biases aside, it's a toss up between Haren and Bedard.  But I guess that's why they play a full season.  Beckett will be considered only because he's playing for a contender.  Santana might be playing for a contender; I've maintained since the ASB that Detroit would slide, and Cleveland would take the division, and Minny would take the WC.

So, my apologies.  I can't believe I left Haren out of the equation.

Pitch fast, throw strikes, change speeds. -Ray Miller

by madhatternalice on Aug 18, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the race
Seems like Sabathia, Verlander and maybe Carmona are in the argument as well, but more based on their teams contending. I think Haren and Beckett are probably the favorites right now, but if Buhdard keeps pitching like he does, and the numbers (besides the win/loss) back it up, it'll be hard to ignore him.

by nesloq on Aug 18, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bedard
beat Beckett in a head to head matchup, and I dont think anyone would argue against the fact that Beckett had a better team behind him, and it was played at Fenway

by nittany lion on Aug 18, 2007 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

if
Berdard got the support that beckett has he would have 15 wins too. I think the real debate here is Berdard versus Haren.
Jeremy Guthrie ROCKS! Go to hell Paul Shuey!

by westcoastOfan on Aug 18, 2007 1:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The voters are dumb
They'll give it to Beckett because of (1) market, (2) contender status, and (3) wins.

Also, to be fair to the GMs, Becket has a pretty good WS track record. Bedard, through no real fault of his own, has never pitched in the playoffs.

by pipkin on Aug 18, 2007 2:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WS
I'm not terribly mad that the GMs chose Beckett, even though it has been 4 years since 2003, and Beckett has a huge history of getting hurt.

I'm mad that that thought should even enter into a Cy Young discussion.

Pitch fast, throw strikes, change speeds. -Ray Miller

by madhatternalice on Aug 18, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

to be fair:
brandon webb won the Cy young last year for a mediocre arizona team. However, there's not as much media groin massaging for the NL as there is for a couple AL teams....

by dfleis on Aug 18, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I picked Bedard to win the Cy Young
and Peavy in the National League. If there was any justice in the world, both picks would be looking pretty good.

by NHZ on Aug 18, 2007 5:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

NL
Peavy, Webb and Young...it's gonna be close..
Pitch fast, throw strikes, change speeds. -Ray Miller

by madhatternalice on Aug 18, 2007 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right now...
I'd say it's between Haren, Bedard and Santana. Beckett is having a fine season, but not as good as those three, not a Cy Young season.

by rebop on Aug 19, 2007 8:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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