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Trends in Losing....

Amazingly enough, a few years ago, the team seemed to be going in the right direction.

Here's a chart of the last few years, with the O's record and Tampa Bay's:

From the depths of 01 they improved steadily until 04 when they were darn close to .500.  They actually finished third and Tampa Bay 4th, with Toronto last.  That's probably why the big start in 05 was such a fooler -- it really seemed to make sense at the time.  04 was, I think (the years seem to merge into mush) the year they signed Tejada, Lopez and Palmiero.  The Oriole line shows steady improvement and then steady decline -- we're all vividly aware of the latter!  One interesting thing is how, for the most part the O's and Tampa Bay's record move in tandem.  Another is that this year there seems to be remarkable competitive balance this year.  There's not a single team below .400 -- Orioles and Tampa are the two lowest.  Only 4 other teams are below .450 and two of those are at .445.  And there's only one team above .600 -- Boston at .605.

(I previously posted this on a gameday thread & sombody correctly pointed out that was not the right place for it so I put it here, too.)

Star-divide

Here's a hopeful afterthought -- The Orioles are likely to improve next year. I remember years ago Bill James did an analysis showing that teams rarely either improve or get worse for several years in row -- teams which get worse one year tend to get better the next. Of course, the Orioles of the 80's actually got worse for 5 years in a row, starting with '84 (the year after the last championship) and ending in '88 (when they started with a gazillion losses). I think James said that was one of the very few times in baseball history that that had happened, maybe the only.

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Fascinating stuff
Thoughts:
  • someone rightly pointed out in the other thread that there were more than a few juiced Orioles in '03 and '04
  •  Bill James: "teams rarely either improve or get worse for several years in row — teams which get worse one year tend to get better the next"... try telling that to Tampa Bay. I gues sit's not that you improve or not improve, but by how much. Getting from .350 to .450 is great, but it's still not a winning record. A team like that needs 3-4 years of improvement to compete; if Bill James is saying that rarely happens, then you'd need to have a dramatic 1-2 year turnaround such as we've seen from Detroit recently.

I was once a kind and honest orthodontist experimenting with electric brainwave stimulation.

by zknower on Sep 14, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

re: Detroit
That was more like a 3-year turnaround. From nearly 120 losses in 2003 (I believe) to the world series in 2006.

Still impressive? Oh hells yes. But also more realistic. and really really expensive, and they showed a willingness to take on risk (Maggs, Pudge, etc.)

by pipkin on Sep 15, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Os & TB
The sad thing is, the D-Rays are a better team than the Os at this point.  They are so much better offensively, with a core of young hitters who were given the oppurtuntity to play, Upton, Young, Crawford, Harris.  While the O's young players are forced to sit behind aging vets like Payton, Mora, and Tejada and then are forced to play the final 20 games of the season and produce or spend next year in the minors.
Our pitching staff is slightly better than the D-Rays, but I can fully see the D-Rays being a .500 team next year while the O's, if no changes are made, will see the cellar.

by lukin123 on Sep 15, 2007 11:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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