O's Minor League Recap

I thought that I'd post this link to MiLB.com's season in review for the O's. All of us are pretty excited about our loaded farm, and this site provides a few videos and sound clips along with numerous tidbits about key players in our system. We don't get to see these guys in interviews all too often, so definitely check it out.

about 1 month ago Baltimo Comment 13 comments 0 recs |

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it's not a loaded farm system

It’s just better than what we’re used to. It’s fairly middle of the pack overall. Top three or four looks awesome. After five there might not be a single major league contributor.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 10, 2008 5:02 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm fairly confident

That Baseball America will rank them in the top 10, and probably the top 5. They’ve dropped hints to that effect over the last few months.

Goldstein will also probably rank them in the top 10, he had this to say just yesterday:

Going Well at the Minor League Level: Matt Wieters is seen by many as the best position prospect in the game, a switch-hitting catcher with the ability to hit in the middle of the order for a championship-level team. The system is absolutely loaded with pitching. Chris Tillman and 2008 first-round pick Brian Matusz both project as star-level starting pitchers, while Jake Arrieta and David Hernandez both look like solid rotation arms, and lightning-fast Brandon Erbe could end up as either a starter or closer.

Not Going Well at the Minor League Level: After Wieters, the position players drop off a cliff….

Ideally the system would be deeper, but I’m very happy with the progress over the last year. The top 4 guys in the system all have extremely high upsides and are just a stone’s throw away from the majors. I’ll take it.

by dkdc on Oct 12, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

I disagree

It’s a top ten farm system. BA ranked the farm system the 16th coming into the year, and that was pre-Bedard trade. The depth of the system might not be able to match up with that of the Rangers or A’s, but the cupboard is not bear outside of the top 5. Guys like Erbe, Snyder, Spoone, Britton, and Hernandez are all legitimate prospects.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 10, 2008 5:31 PM EDT 0 recs

why is Spoone a legitimate prospect?

He’s put up bad numbers in every season except one and now he has injury issues.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 10, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

and as for Snyder

He has a lot of work to do to be on anyone’s short list of good first base prospects. Below-average power for the position and terrible plate discipline.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 10, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

and I'll go even further

BA ranked the farm system the 16th coming into the year, and that was pre-Bedard trade.

The Bedard trade, which brought us:

1. Adam Jones, no longer a prospect
2. Chris Tillman, a very good prospect
3. Kam Mickolio, a rough relief pitcher, not a big-time prospect
4. Tony Butler, who got injured

The system also had a lot of guys struggle through some rough years. Liz and Olson both got smoked at the major league level, Penn declined yet again, Rowell stunk, Beato was horrible, Bascom was no better, and so on and so forth. The minor league player of the year excepting Matt Wieters was 27-year old Lou Montanez. It was not a great year for the Oriole farm system, Wieters and Tillman and Arrieta aside. Reimold did what he should have at AA, and I think we had a great first round draft pick and some interesting guys after that. But the system really didn’t progress any on the whole.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 10, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

I would say

Comparitvely, our system is loaded; it could be a top six/seven farm overall. Wieters/Matusz/Till man/Arietta are a top four that can match up with any other four in baseball. Just because the rest of the guys in our can’t keep up with those guys does not mean that they are not legitimate prospects. If Rowell posts an OBP around 790+ and shows improvement in his attitude, the guy will instantly be redeemed in most people’s eyes as a really good prospect.

If you’re not going to consider Jones a prospect, then you can no longer mention Olson/Liz in the same breath as other guys coming up either. There is no denying that Beato/Bascom took big steps back, but as their stock fell, we had a handful of guys who shot up in Britton, Erbe, Spoone, Hernandez and Bergesen. Our system has become competitive to the point that Bergesen/Hernandez/Patton are after thoughts, even with the number they’ve posted. It is a testament not only to the astounding statistics that are being put up, but also the amount of raw “stuff” that is finely getting refined.

I don’t like the argument that we don’t have depth, you can go down to the mid teen’s in our system and still find kids who have a legitimate shot at making a career in the majors. Furthermore, contrary to popular belief, we have positional talent in our system; Wieters is a sure thing, Rowell still has more than enough time to establish himself as a top 30 prospect, Reimold could come up this year and have a league average career, and Snyder has done nothing but impress over the last full year. Finally, if Wieters does not get the nod in Baltimore until May-ish, we are not graduating a single top prospect in our farm sans possibly Reimold; I’m also making a bit of an assumption that MacPhail is able to add a few more nice pieces as well.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 10, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

SC

I’ll take your posts one by one.

Spoone is a good prospect for the following reasons- he combines a mid 90’s fastball, a very good curve, and the ability to keep the ball on the ground. I’m not sure what your definition of a “good season is” but prior to this year, in which he got injured, in two professional seasons he had posted ERA’s of 3.56 and 3.26 with BAA of .241 and .200. Those are two pretty good years. The injury is certainly a big issue, but he has the stuff to be a starter along the lines of Ryan Dempster.

Snyder- I’m not saying he is an elite prospect. What I am saying is that he is a legitimate prospect. Hitting .315 with an OPS of .848, is very solid. As far as his lack of power goes he only had 13HR, but he had 33 2B. As prospects get older and mature a lot of those 2Bs can become HR. Plate discipline is a concern, but not so much so that his physical tools should be ignored. I’m not sure where you get the “a below average first baseman”. I haven’t seen him enough to properly evaluate his defense, but as a former 3b/C, and not having read anything negative about his D I’m hesitant to yield that position to you either.

BA Position-
I think the addition of Tillman alone, a player likely to be in BA’s top 15 prospects, would move the O’s system to near 10th. Then when you add in Brian Matusz, the breakout year of Jake Arrieta, and Wieters going from a very good prospect to debatably the best prospect you are talking about a top 10 system.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 10, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I’m not sure what your definition of a "good season is" but prior to this year, in which he got injured, in two professional seasons he had posted ERA’s of 3.56 and 3.26 with BAA of .241 and .200.

The 3.56 ERA masked a 1.53 WHIP and 90-to-80 K-to-BB. Those are problems that you can get away with at Delmarva and post that ERA, but don’t really carry. The next season was very good and I was quite excited about Spoone’s across the board improvement; very impressive all-around. But this year he was walking a lot of guys again and got hurt after nine starts. Not impressive. Where you guys are getting that he stays on the same level he was coming into the season is really beyond me.

Hitting .315 with an OPS of .848, is very solid.

Not for a top 15 draft pick playing first base in A-ball, really. Well, no, I’ll give you “solid” — I won’t give you anything worth getting excited over just yet. I like Snyder and I genuinely hope for the best, but I think expectations should be tempered after injury troubles and moving off of catcher and over to first base. I like Snyder, but he is, realistically, what ~~- a B~~ prospect right now? At best?

I’m not sure where you get the "a below average first baseman".

All I’m saying is he doesn’t hit enough, so far, to carry the position.

Plate discipline is a concern, but not so much so that his physical tools should be ignored.

I’m not ignoring his physical tools, but his plate discipline is something that produces results, and they aren’t very good.

Now as for the larger point, which is our divergent views on the system, I think it can be boiled down to the fact that I’m kind of a grump and a cynic. I have learned over the years to not get excited about prospects to the point of delirium, save these days for a guy like Wieters. I think our system is wonderful at the top and am cautiously very optimistic for Wieters, Tillman, Arriesta (I might like Arrieta more than anyone does), Matusz and Reimold.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 11, 2008 6:07 AM EDT up 0 recs

"B- prospect"

Stupid strikethrough HTML.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 11, 2008 6:11 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bottom line

You make some valid points on Spoone, and I agree that Snyder is probably a B- prospect, but that does not preclude them from being legitimate prospects. 5-10 in my mind shapes up as- 6. Erbe 7. Britton 8. Snyder 9. Hernandez 10. Avery. And you have to hope that out of Spoone and Patton one comes back from the dreaded torn-labrum. These guys aren’t studs, but what system has studs outside of the top 5? Maybe the A’s or Rangers, but outside of those two elite systems most don’t. Without putting a ton of research into it I would assume a top ten teams not ranked would look like-

A’s, Rangers, Braves, Brewers, Indians, Orioles, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, Royals.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 11, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up 0 recs