How would the O's do outside the AL East?

by silverstadium on Oct 2, 2008 1:42 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

Yeah, whining about the strength of our division is a perennial pasttime and an unsolvable quandry. I couldn't help but notice, though, the O's record in this article at Salon.

In the article, the author examines "if every team had had the same winning percentage within its own division as it had against nondivision foes." It's probably not the most scientific way to come up with a division-neutral record, but it gives us some interesting results. Namely, that the O's would still have finished last in the East, but we would have improved by 15 games, for a record of 83-79. Our record is impacted more (in either direction) than any other team in MLB by our performance in the division.

What do we learn?

(1) This really isn't that bad a team, though it's still not playoff worthy. Maybe it's better this way so we can get better draft choices and not delude the management into thinking we're just a free agent away from winning because

(2) The AL East is really tough. Duh. With all the progress we've made at rebuilding, seeing the strength of our division and the obvious big bucks of the YankSox is the biggest downer in thinking about future October baseball in Birdland.

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We learn that since August 18th, when they were 60-64,

the O’s played 25 games vs AL East teams. They went 3-22 in those games.

I don’t think you can blame a skid like that on the division being tough. The O’s were 22-50 vs the East overall, but were 19-28 before the end-of-the-season skid. This probably boils down to the Orioles being the Orioles.

by PhilR8 on Oct 2, 2008 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I attribute that late season slide more to the O’s having no organizational depth than the strength of the division.

by silverstadium on Oct 2, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Only the BJs whine about playing in the ALE. Ste*nbr*nner never does. Neither do we.

A net increase of 21 wins in the AL, and a net loss of 15 wins in the NL doesnt’ add up.

I did a strength of division that I will share with you now:
ALE .538
ALC .501
ALW .487
NLE .490
NLC .515
NLW .491

So the AL/NL wests aren’t as bad as you (me anyway) would think, but the AL East is definately a tough division, brought down only by the Os at this point.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Oct 2, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hank steinbrenner whined about it this year

and was laughed right onto the back pages, which is what he wants

by pipkin on Oct 3, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(2) The AL East is really tough. Duh. With all the progress we’ve made at rebuilding, seeing the strength of our division and the obvious big bucks of the YankSox is the biggest downer in thinking about future October baseball in Birdland.

The money is not that big a deal. The Tampa Bay Rays won the division.

The O’s are a bad team regardless of division. They are, at best, the East Coast Rangers. More competitive than 68-93, probably, but still not any kind of legitimate contender. 83-79 is really the same thing when all is said and done.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 2, 2008 11:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not in the NL West....

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Oct 3, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the Los Angeles Dodgers as an 84-78 team and tell me that the Orioles stack up to that. I question the Salon article’s resulting theory that the Orioles finish 83-79.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 3, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LAD would kill them

There’s not a division in baseball where the O’s win 78 games, let alone 83. So I disagree, as do you, with the basic premise that the O’s would finish with 83 wins in the NL West. More than 15 wins better? I know the NL is bad, but 15 wins worse? Playing in the NL would give the O’s a 15 win head start? No way, no how, no NL.

That said….

GO DODGERS!

by duck on Oct 4, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs