Matusz Dominating in AFL

by O'sFan21 on Oct 29, 2008 3:51 PM EDT Comment 27 comments

"Meanwhile, Matusz struck out eight in four innings in his last outing, thanks to two plus breaking pitches: his "knockout" curveball in the 75-79 mph range, and a mid-80s slider with good, late tilt. The lefty is also working consistently at 91-92 mph, touching 93 and mixing in a solid mid-80s circle change to any batter who is sitting on a breaking ball.

Matusz was the fourth overall pick this June, and considering he's making his professional debut here at the Arizona Fall League, the results are even more impressive.

So where does Matusz begin the season next year? Last year, O's pitcher Jake Arrieta made his pro debut at the AFL and didn't allow an earned run, then spent the whole season at high Class A despite pitching well. However, Matusz has a more advanced feel for pitching and better overall command than Arrieta, and it wouldn't be a stretch to see Matusz start right at Double-A and advance quickly through the minors. He's a very polished pitcher right now, and he looks like he'll eventually be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues."

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Well....I might be full of it but in....

2002 we picked Adam Loewen fourth and Cole Hamels went where? I know let it go. I think Loewen was from the same kind of thought process that got us Nick Markasis. Both could have been signed as pitchers or hitters. I wont beat the O’s up much more, you cant predict injuries and Hamels had his bumps in the road as well.

2008-I think we got it right at four this time….somewhere between Mark Mulder and Cole Hamels is where I see Mr Matusz and right now soon…

I would like to see the Big Three (yeah I hate even writing it but) of Matusz, Tillman and Arietta all show up in 2010 hopefully with Jeremy Guthrie, one small budget free agent (Jon Garland/Oliver Perez-likely 10 mil a year so I am not sure I want to go that way with either but someone has to throw some innings or our bullpen will be toast again) and or Garrett Olson with Liz in the pen. Or maybe Garret Olsen is our JP Howell? Of course it never works quite that easy. Maybe trades will bring some others to crash the party.

by sanders833 on Oct 29, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Loewen was a high school bum!

Matusz is a hot to trot college product.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Oct 29, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't rule #1 of Moneyball...

go with college pitchers? I mean, after you memorize OBP for the entire NCAA…

Duck Around - a progressive blob about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Oct 29, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only rule of moneyball

is to exploit market inefficiencies to your advantage.

by pipkin on Oct 29, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's made two appearances

I feel like ‘dominating the AFL’ might be jumping the gun a bit. I like him a lot too, and I think he should start in double A, but this is really a lot.

by Birdfan01 on Oct 29, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well

That article was written after his first start where he threw a shutout. Again, you cannot pass judgement on someone purley based off of stats, especially in the AFL. For all we know, Matusz was trying to get his curve to break closer to the plate yesterday, and as a result, he gave up three homers on hanging breaking balls.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 30, 2008 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was more excited about the description of his stuff.

70 curveball.

Sitting at 92-93…

The article really isn’t about his results at all – it’s much more about his stuff. So I don’t think “dominating” is jumping the gun at all.

by O'sFan21 on Oct 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do think that dominating comes off too strong

But my post was an attempt to address any kind of label, from “dominating” to “floundering.” There isn’t any real comprehensive coverage exclusively on our players in the AFL, so we really do not know what is going on. I would personally be more comfortable judging Matusz after he is in Bowie/Frederick and I get a chance to see him firsthand and/or read articles about his stuff.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 30, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do we not know what's going on?

There is a legion of scouts rating his off speed pitches highly and saying that he’s sitting 91-93. That’s dominant lefty starter stuff. AGAIN, you are talking results and I am talking abilities.

by O'sFan21 on Oct 31, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...?

Again, you cannot pass judgment on someone purely based off of stats, especially in the AFL.

I’m pretty sure I said that earlier…

I don’t think that Jason Grey is necessarily unqualified, but the guy is looking at hundreds of prospects over the course of a few days. Obviously I follow O’s prospects more closely than kids in other system, and I have the opportunity to travel to Frederick and Bowie to see guys firsthand. Whereas I only look at raw statistics to evaluate a prospect in another system, I reserve my judgment for O’s prospects until I have seen them play myself and/or read about them extensively. Additionally, I’d be more comfortable formulating conclusions about a player if I was reading an article from a journalist who almost exclusively covers the Orioles; more likely than not, that writer would be able to tell me about Matusz’s(sp?) mechanics, arm motion and overall stamina. Having the guy that ESPN sends to Arizona tell me that Matusz can touch 93 on the gun is simply not enough.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 31, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

in contrast...

This guy sees hundreds of real prospects and all Orioles guys pay attention to are Orioles “prospects.”

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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Bad Left Hook

by SC on Nov 1, 2008 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Most writers who cover the Orioles only see crappy Orioles prospects.

Even more so, most of the writers who only cover the Orioles (and other Baltimore/MD teams) are morons.

by pipkin on Nov 1, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Much more comfortable with somebody who sees prospects across all organizations rather than just the O’s. Seems like a ridiculous argument to me. I don’t want him compared to fucking Hayden Penn. I want him compared to other first round picks from the last few years and other top lefty starters.

by O'sFan21 on Nov 1, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When did I once

Say in my post that I wanted top tier O’s prospects compared to any other guy in the system? The problem with this discussion is that you’re simply not reading my posts and you are putting words into my mouth. I want to read what a Bowie writer says about Matusz because he sees the guy progress throughout the season, and s/he is able to tell whether a certain kid has any kind of continuity.

Whereas Grey says that Matusz has a 92 mph heater, after seeing him for the first time in his life, Miller tells me that Matusz is getting a bit more life at the tail end of his fastball at the cost of a little velocity, which is great because the kid used to have trouble getting his movement down.

More to the point, however, I merely thought that it was a bit premature to use the word “dominating” after four innings. Additionally, most of the guys he’s facing are pretty groggy right now because they’ve just gone through an entire minor league season, and no one has seen Matusz pitch before. I like the fact that he looked pretty good his first time out, especially because his teammates are getting lit up, but I’d rather see a bit more from the kid.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Nov 1, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually agree with you on the "dominating" point

For two reasons:

1. “dominating” the AFL ,even if it is known as a hitters’ league, is pretty insignificant

2. sample size

by pipkin on Nov 1, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don’t need to juxtapose players to judge their value as a prospect.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Nov 1, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs