Orioles' Top 20 Prospects for 2009

by zknower on Nov 19, 2008 2:03 AM EST in Minor Leagues Comment 25 comments

Sickels' report is posted over at Minor League Ball.

The top 10 are all As and Bs except for Patton:

1) Matt Wieters, C, Grade A: Best prospect in baseball. Mutant cross between Mauer and Piazza.
2) Chris Tillman, RHP, Grade B+: Want to see sharper command, but I’m very impressed overall, especially given his age.
3) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade B+: Not David Price, but should advance quickly due to sharp command of solid stuff.
4) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: Very high ceiling, command still an issue at times, but can dominate.
5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B: Made progress after difficult ’07 season. Double-A transition critical.
6) Nolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-: A bit old for a prospect now, but power bat should carry forward.
7) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B-: Love the groundballs this guy gets, young, good stuff, a sleeper.
8) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-: Horrible glove, but bat took a big step forward last year.
9) David Hernandez, RHP, Grade B-: I still think people are underrating this guy. Needs to lower walks.
10) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C+: If health reports are accurate, he should rebound. Useful pitcher but not likely a star.

And Sickels' take on the farm system is encouraging....

SYSTEM IN BRIEF: This organization has rapidly improved over the last couple of years. Drafting early has helped that, but willingness to actually spend money on good players (Wieters, Arrrieta, Matusz) is a key factor that some other early-drafting teams have missed. Trades have helped bring additional depth, and they’ve shown some ability to develop sleeper types. High school bats such as Snyder and Rowell have brought mixed results, but overall the level of talent in the farm system is something that Baltimore fans should be happy about.

It's all a good read and worth your heading over there to look at. And yes, I also posted this to move certain other non-Oriole info down the page.

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Patton

If health reports are accurate, he should rebound. Useful pitcher but not likely a star.

I was hoping to hear something a bit more optimistic than this assessment. Patton was pretty well regarded before the shoulder injury. “Useful pitcher” doesn’t inspire much confidence. Useful pitcher could just mean useful long reliever afterall.

On a separate topic, what’s up with Dallas McPherson? I know he flamed out with the Angels but he tore up AAA last year and posted really good minor league numbers. He might be a good guy to bring in on a minor league deal, along with Dan Johnson, to play 1B once we lose out on Texiera.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 19, 2008 2:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think he's playing for the Marlins still?

Is he a free agent this off season?

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 19, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he’s a minor league free agent because he’s accumulated quite a bit of time in the minors but I’m not sure.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 19, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't fault Sickels for that projection

He’s betting against the odds if he comes out and says that Patton has a break out season, or a high ceiling for that matter. Frankly, pitchers who suffer that kind of injury typically do not come back as top ten prospects in a quality system; the fact that Patton is now in the discussion for a SP slot this spring inspires a lot of confidence.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 7:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or inspires a sense of another lost season

due to no starting pitching.

I’m hoping for your version.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Nov 19, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Useful pitcher = #4 starter

Which I would be ecstatic to get from Patton.

by dkdc on Nov 19, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

me too.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 19, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yup...

by which, i’m sure he (and you guys) means a real #4, which, as it stands now, would be a #2 for the o’s. i mean, honestly i’m pretty stoked if he pulls a 100 era + give or take a few.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Nov 19, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

patton

Yeah, I don’t think much of Patton at all at this point. I thought his days as a prospect were pretty much done, but maybe I’m being overly harsh? I admit to getting confused to the various kinds of shoulder/elbow injuries, but I thought Patton’s injury was the kiss of death, not the one where surgery added a few miles per hour to the fastball.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Nov 19, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Patton=Labrum vs TJ

Labrum surgery is the kiss of death for a pitcher. Which is why nobody can really predict what Patton will be able to do. His velocity may be so reduced to render him useless. He may contribute and he may need more surgery.

I remain optimistic, we will just have to wait and see and wish him the best.

If you look at the comments there is good news and bad news. The obvious good news is Weiters, Tillman, Matusz and Arrietta. Unfortunately, after that, a lot of hoping, wishing and praying…Considering the major league level the O’s really have no prospects to move in fire sale trades (such as Florida’s firesale and maybe others to come).

Teams in fire sale mode dont want B Roberts or Aubrey Huff even if we eat the cash. They want prospects, just like us.

Is there a prospect on the Triple A team as the roster was configured at the end of 2008?
That aint so good.

Still think about this system before the 2007 draft. Its a lot better.

Coca Crisp for Ramon Martinez
Steve Swisher for magic beans.
Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda
Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez

So you can see Andy Macphail’s job of trading A Huff, R Hernandez , L Scott, M Mora isnt going to bear much fruit with more risk of the fruit just rotting on the vine. Given the value offered the O’s may have a better chance of holding the 2010 free agents for draft picks but the likelyhood is if one qualifies your doing well. So salary purge (I believe 24 mill for Mora, Huff and RH) makes sense as well if we do something with it such as invest in Tex (yes I know but I can dream for a month or so).

by sanders833 on Nov 19, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Given the value offered the O’s may have a better chance of holding the 2010 free agents for draft picks but the likelyhood is if one qualifies your doing well

Huff could easily be a class A free agent next year. He’s class A now. He’d certainly make class B.

Ramon Hernandez is borderline A-B. If he rebounds this season (which we should expect he will, because he was extremely unlucky last year, then he will be class A).

Scott’s not a free agent for a long while, and doesn’t cost anything. Trading him for beans makes zero sense. Incidentally, he just missed class B status this year. However, platooning him may change his trajectory.

Melvin Mora is a class A FA right now. That could easily change. He’s also got a no-trade clause.

Brian Roberts will be class A for sure, barring major injury.

Heck, maybe we’d be better off taking that money and putting it in the scouting department, but we have to realize that these guys (except for Scott) are definitely going to be worth draft picks as FAs if we offer them arbitration.

by math_geek on Nov 19, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Type A's

Huff and Mora may be Type A’s, but do you really want to offer them arbitration? Plus I thought Mora had an option for 2010. I’d much rather just trade them both and move on (though there is no way in hell Mora won’t be an Oriole next year).

Scott’s a free agent after 2010 IIRC. I like him but if trading him nets us some player will be good for a long time than it makes sense. Not that it’s Luke’s fault or anything, but he did get a late start and I believe is 30 already or close to it.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Nov 19, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd offer Huff arb

If he has a good enough year in ‘09 to be a Type A he’ll be looking for one more decent multi year contract, I think. Mora on the other hand is an Oriole lifer. I wouldn’t offer him jack because he’d totally take it.

But yeah, better to trade anyway.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Nov 19, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd offer arb to Huff too

I mean, at least if he does well next year. Worst case is that you get a good player for one more year. But he’d almost certainly sign elsewhere.

by math_geek on Nov 19, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guess this belongs in a different thread

But I don’t get why everyone is so intent on signing Tex. 1B doesn’t seem to be our need. Why not fill the obvious holes, middle infield, 3B and pitching. It seems to me we are going to have to eventually find positions for Reimold (OF is fairly full) and Snyder. One of those guys will likely have to play first if they make the majors.

I think a team like the Orioles need to use free agents to fill holes, not to build a team.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Nov 19, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So you can see Andy Macphail’s job of trading A Huff, R Hernandez , L Scott, M Mora isnt going to bear much fruit with more risk of the fruit just rotting on the vine.

Well, I wouldn’t call Ceda, Martinez and Nunez rotten fruit. They all appear to be good relievers. Martinez was especially good last season. But the Crisp deal just reinforces my belief that Andy’s demands for Roberts is out of whack. He wants an impact player back and nobody is going give up an impact player for one year of Brian Roberts (or Huff, Mora, or Scott for that matter). I would take Martinez and a lesser prospect for Roberts because that’s about the best you’re going to do now.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 19, 2008 2:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, Coco Crisp isn't that good

Roberts is way better than Coco. Huff was really good last year. If MacPhail projects him as being as good this year and no-one else does, then we should hold on to him and flip him at the deadline. The Angels actually gave up some pretty decent stuff for two months of Texiera, not to mention the steal the Dodgers gave up for Manny.

by math_geek on Nov 19, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Roberts is way better than Coco.

Yes, which is why I would want Martinez and another prospect.

If MacPhail projects him as being as good this year and no-one else does, then we should hold on to him and flip him at the deadline.

Roberts, Huff, and Mora will probably be worth even less than at the deadline.

The Angels actually gave up some pretty decent stuff for two months of Texiera, not to mention the steal the Dodgers gave up for Manny.

Roerts is better than Crisp but Manny and Tiexiera are way better than Roberts, Huff, or Mora.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 19, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Roberts, Huff, and Mora will probably be worth even less than at the deadline.

Probably? Undoubtedly. There is no way a 32 year old DH with an expiring contract looks better than he does right now. Same thing holds true with Roberts.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the thing with Huff

He had an excellent season last year, and I haven’t heard one peep of rumor about a team that wants to trade for him. We’ve heard about inquiries towards Roberts, Ramon, and Melvin freaking Mora. Not a word about Huff, despite the fact that he was really good last year. You need to find interest to find a trading partner.

by math_geek on Nov 19, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There seems to be some preconceived notion that Huff can’t play 3B, which severely limits his value.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Nov 19, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huff has said his favor position is DH. In the limited action I’ve seen him play, I like him better at 3rd than 1st. He seems to field and throw OK, but I kind of cringe watching him handle tough throws to first.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Nov 20, 2008 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My order

I would’ve put Rowell, Adams, Spoone, Henson all higher and Patton, Mickolio, Beato and Montanez lower (significantly so in Patton’s case).

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Nov 19, 2008 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thats a pretty good list….much better than in years gone by! I was shocked to see Beato on there as high as he was.

http://www.freewebs.com/afanofthegame/

by beentheredonethat on Nov 19, 2008 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

maybe another sleeper?

from the hawaiian league…

Tyler Henson, 3B – After enduring a slump during the middle of the winter season, Henson finished strong for West Oahu. The 20-year-old third baseman hit .342 with one home run and eight RBIs in his last 10 games. Henson led the league in doubles (13), runs scored (28) and walks (25). He also played the most games (35) and finished second in strikeouts (44). Overall, the Orioles’ fifth-round pick in the 2006 draft batted .266 with one home run and 16 RBIs for the CaneFires.

——

you could do a lot worse than having a dude that led the league in doubles and walks, no?

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Nov 20, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs