maybe we’ve been blinded by starless rotations in a post-moose world, but guts looks about as legit #1 as there is. maybe not a top 5 ace, but i can’t think of too many teams that could do better.

my expectations on pitching prospects. I just want one of them to pan out. And by pan out I mean at least be a steady #3 guy for more than 2 1/2 weeks.

Guthrie is a great #2 and a borderline #1. Last year he pitched like an ace as the season went on proving that he has a great character and drive to do well. So he has an ace’s “make up” but a #2’s arm.

1.) Matt Wieters
2.) Chris Tillman
3.) Brian Matusz
4.) Jake Arrietta
5.) Nolan Reimold
6.) Billy Rowell
7.) Brandon Erbe
8.) Brandon Snyder
9.) David Hernandez
10.) Zach Britton
11.) Troy Patton
12.) Chorye Spoone
13.) LJ Hoes
14.) Jason Berken
15.) Brad Bergesen

I want to flip Rowell and Reimold, but Billy isn’t making a case for himself. As has been discussed ad nauseum, the kid still has all the tools, shows promising progression at times, and is still only going to be twenty years old. Irrespective of his number, it’s still tough to put a guy in your top five when he is going on twenty five and spent the year at AA.

People easily forget how solid of a prospect Patton was before his injury, and from all reports, he will be close to 100% this spring. Using that logic, I can only slot Spoone one spot behind Patton; Spoone appears to have a high ceiling, but he is a bit erratic for my taste and has been plagued by injuries.

Right now, I see Hoes as a more promising prospect than Avery, who is just a raw player. You need coaches to refine and polish those skills, and unfortunately, I just don’t see those instructors in the O’s minor league system. Or the majors for that matter.

Kind of unnerving that the majority of these pitchers look to be bullpen guys, but then again, I could just as easily see some of the middle of the pack prospects panning out to be back of the rotation starters.

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Regarding BA’s list, I see Kam as more of a project, along the same lines as Sarfate, and projects are no fun.

Maybe that will be in an upcoming livejournal post.

I realize his K/9 isn’t, like, good, and that he’s not Greg Maddux or anything, but "back of a rotation" is pretty … dumb. I’m going with "dumb" there. He’s put up a 125 ERA+ two years in a row. Find me some fourth starters like that.

Here are the starters (150 IP to qualify) that put up a 125 this year:

Scott Kazmir, TAM, 125
Jon Lester, BOS, 143
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS, 158
Mike Mussina, NYY, 128
Roy Halladay, TOR, 155
Shaun Marcum, TOR, 127

John Danks, CWS, 138
Cliff Lee, CLE, 175
Zack Greinke, KCR, 131

Ervin Santana, LAA, 125
Joe Saunders, LAA, 128

Cole Hamels, PHi, 145
Johan Santana, NYM, 163

Ryan Dempster, CHC, 152
C.C. Sabathia, MIL/CLE, 162
Ben Sheets, MIL, 141
Edinson Volquez, CIN, 140

Derek Lowe, LAD, 136
Chad Billingsley, LAD, 141
Brandon Webb, ARI, 138
Danny Haren, ARI, 137
Tim Lincecum, SFG, 164
Jake Peavy, SDP, 137

So 23 guys among the other 29 teams in Major League Baseball could match Guthrie’s ERA+ in 2008. Yeah he’s a fourth starter, dudes. Guthrie rated better than James Shields (122) and Carlos Zambrano (115), and I really don’t think BA or anyone else will tell you that Shields or Zambrano are "more suited" to the "back end" of a rotation.

The biggest point is that if a guy that does 125 two straight years is supposed to be your #4/#5, then woof, get ready for a lot of wins, because you have an all-time great rotation on your hands.

Rich Harden (CHC/OAK) was at 206 in 148 innings.

WTF is that about? He’s definitely a solid #2 in my book anyways.

Don’t know why Patton and Mickolio are on the list…as far as top 10 goes, I second Baltimo’s list.