O's could, maybe, perhaps... pursue Dunn
I know, I know... we just went through this. I dont mean to spread rumors, but it's up at MLBTR and its originally from Zrebiec from the Sun. It basically says his price would have to come down, but its an option.
I know this is something most of us here think is a great idea (alot of us thought it was a better idea then going after Teix actually), so I thought I should let everyone know its out there. Don't freak on me when it more then likely doesn't happen. Just dangling the glimmer of hope out there for all to bask in.
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I say yes to Adam Dunn
I don’t care how many times he strikes out, so long as at some point he hits the warehouse…and I’m imagining epic BP battles between Dunn and Luuuuuuke.
"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08
by getxstoked on
Dec 25, 2008 10:54 PM EST
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Read Zreibic's original article
It’s pure speculation, and it’s not likely.
by dkdc on
Dec 25, 2008 11:32 PM EST
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thats what i tried to get across
but maybe i wasnt clear enough. all i was trying to say is its out there and, while it probably wont happen, its something to think about and pray to whatever thing you pray to for.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
by daveh873 on
Dec 25, 2008 11:44 PM EST
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If Dunn’s price comes down, there will be a lot of team chasing him. I could easily see the Nationals outbidding everyone.
by birdman on
Dec 26, 2008 1:54 AM EST
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Yeah,
Bowden’s all over anything that has any sort of Red in his past. Wanker.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
by jobe on
Dec 26, 2008 2:10 AM EST
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That and he's collecting retreads
I really don’t think Dunn is the kind of investment this team needs. Last season they got plenty of offense.
Pass on Dunn. Save the money for pitching and Zzzzzzzaunnnnnnnnn.
by Dr Orpheus on
Dec 26, 2008 9:10 AM EST
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What exactly is his price?
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 26, 2008 10:26 AM EST
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Umh...
“if Dunn’s price came down significantly, he could could be the middle-of-the-order hitter the Orioles were looking for in Teixeira”.
I would say right around what Aubrey Huff is making….
by sanders833 on
Dec 26, 2008 1:13 PM EST
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price
Dunn made $13 million with the Reds/Dbacks last year. But I don’t think he will make as much in free agency. He might be looking at Raul Ibanez territory, who signed with the Phils for 3/30.
If I had to wager a guess, and this is going on absolutely nothing because there has been no talk at all about Dunn, hes going to sign for 3-4 years at about $12 million per.
by UMterp08 on
Dec 26, 2008 1:39 PM EST
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Dude...
…would be a steal at that amount. Honestly, I cannot believe he would make less in FA than $13 Mil a year. If baseball teams are that stupid then they deserve to be in the same sport as the Yankees.
by Jonny Pops on
Dec 26, 2008 3:16 PM EST
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How do you analyze Dunn and Burrell
for example? In the AL you would say well they dont play defense so they shouldnt lose runs and of course their power, rbi’s and OBP should help your offense dramatically. But then your committing 10-13 million of your payroll to guys that have no position so then you have to look at the cost to add a player and what they add or subtract to play a position.
Dunn wanted a 100 million contract (his words) during the season. Now he wants a “fair one” his words this off season. I think the O’s might have some interest, if the price is right. But the O’s will be shopping for pitching or trying to trade Huff or Brian first, I suspect someone will decide they “want” Dunn sooner then then the O’s. Possibly the Angels or the Nats. Cant see the A’s with Cust and Dunn in the same lineup plus Eric Chavez who may only be able to DH and Daric Barton probably ready. Maybe the Giants might have interest now that they added RJ.
Still when GM’s are adamant about a player (JP in Toronto) said player has built a reputation. That has to be considered. Again, the O’s have as much insight on Dunn as anyone in Krivsky but I just get the feeling baseball insiders may consider Dunn on a long term contract as a “not highly motivated player.”
by sanders833 on
Dec 28, 2008 1:10 AM EST
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I wonder if Andy
would do a signing like this to attempt to ease our pain following you-know-who doing you-know-what. Dunn certainly would add potency to an already decent lineup. His production along with the arrival of Mr. Wieters could spell trouble for opposing pitchers. I just don’t know if we need this right now, although I am not totally objected to it.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on
Dec 26, 2008 3:49 PM EST
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you-know-who doing you-know-what
Allow me to ease all of our pain and translate. “Mark Teixeira taking a lot more money to sign with a much better team.”
Can we kinda not pretend Mark Teixeira wronged us? He was never an Oriole, nor were we ever for one second the front runner to sign him.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 26, 2008 9:39 PM EST
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I never stated that he wronged us.
I was just tired of typing/seeing his stupid name, with that stupid spelling, and all of the stupid letters that don’t add up to Ta-share-a. And please Mr. SC, don’t act like you were not just a little hurt at his actions.
And to call the Yankees a ‘much better team’…ANYONE could compete with a payroll like that. I am sure we would have plenty of success if we were able to field a team of nothing but current and former all stars, MVP’s, and who’s who of MLB. At least say that he signed with a team who has much more money and many more front-running fans throughout the country that couldn’t separate a curveball from a changeup and have their women wear stupid pink fucking hats…thats the Yankees sir.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on
Dec 27, 2008 1:13 PM EST
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And please Mr. SC, don’t act like you were not just a little hurt at his actions.
Can I ask why you’re a little hurt at his actions? Texiera is not the first, and won’t be the last, douchebag to sign for more money with the skankees. I mean he’s a hometown boy, and I was hoping he would take a hometown discount with us, but he wasn’t, no big deal.
by birdman on
Dec 27, 2008 7:20 PM EST
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I feel like everyone is taking the
‘sour grapes’ mentality about this whole thing. I don’t really believe any true Oriole fan when they say that they didn’t take the Tex signing at least slightly personal. Before he did the deed, we were all somewhat hopeful in getting him to come home. Afterwards, the opinion of the majority was suddenly that of we didn’t need/want him anyway…nonsense!!
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on
Dec 27, 2008 10:27 PM EST
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I didn't take it at all personally
I can remove myself from personal feelings in the vast, vast majority of these things. I guess that means I’m not a “true Oriole fan.” Whatever.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 27, 2008 11:59 PM EST
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I wouldn't say you are not a true fan...
just that you might be a cold-hearted cobra commander, that’s all. But really, that shit didn’t get to you at all? Not the Yankees or the Steinbrenners, none of it? You are a much more emotionally controlled individual than I.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on
Dec 28, 2008 12:25 PM EST
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Personal? I love the O’s but it’s freakin baseball team! I would say I was disappointed. Didn’t take it personally though.
by birdman on
Dec 28, 2008 1:09 PM EST
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that's totally fair
I’m pretty cold to the ballclub. And no it really didn’t bother me at all — I wanted the dude, and I think we obviously needed the dude, but I never expected to get the dude, and the thing about me hating the Yankees is I hate them for reasons other than they spend the money they earn on their club. I actually think that’s perfectly admirable.
Mussina signing with the Yankees bothered me, because he was an Oriole. Mark Teixeira has never been one once.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 28, 2008 1:36 PM EST
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I think what makes Teixeira’s actions off putting is that he led Orioles fans along. For years we’ve been fed sound bytes from him saying how he thought it’d be great to play for the Orioles and be near his family. Therefore, it was a bit jarring when it turned out that he really didn’t give a flying f about playing in Baltimore, and was far more worried about getting as much money as possible from a contending team.
If he’d just been honest during the process and said that he wants to be paid handsomly by a team with a chance at the World Series, then who could fault him for signing with the Yankees? Most players in the league don’t play for their home town team, so why crucify him? The fact is though, he and his agent manipulated the feelings of Orioles (and to some extent Nationals) fans to get more money. That in my mind is pretty scummy.
by GibbonsIsJay on
Dec 28, 2008 2:07 AM EST
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For years we’ve been fed sound bytes from him saying how he thought it’d be great to play for the Orioles and be near his family.
I think he wouldn’t mind playing for the O’s. And he certainly wanted to be near his family. We just didn’t offer enough money.
was far more worried about getting as much money as possible from a contending team.
I think we or the Nats were completely manipulated. He would happy to play for a non-contender if the non-contending team would have offered 10 years, $200M.
by birdman on
Dec 28, 2008 1:15 PM EST
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Firstly,
his defense is shit. Totally, utterly, completely, and in all other ways, shit.
And I don’t think he wants to DH. I generally don’t buy into all the chemistry-locker room- rah rah BS, but Manny is a flake in so many ways I don’t think it’d be good to have him on the team. If he was refusing to play for Boston because he was in a snit when they were competitive, what do you think he’d do when the Os are already 13 into 5th place by the All Star Break?
If the Os thought they were going to be competitive in 09 or 10 (hint: they’re not) it would make perfect sense to sign Manny as a last piece. But there’s no guarantee that he’d A: sign for 3 years or B: still be worth the money we’d have to give him when the 3rd or 4th year (and first chance for Os to be competitive) arrived.
Manny is not coming here, he shouldn’t come here, and the Orioles shouldn’t want him to come here. Wrong player, wrong time, wrong everything.
"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008
Adam Jones is the tits.
by KenDixonFanClub on
Dec 28, 2008 2:39 PM EST
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but...but
his defense is shit. Totally, utterly, completely, and in all other ways, shit.
he makes catches at the wall and high-fives fans!
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
by BPinOK on
Dec 28, 2008 7:55 PM EST
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In meaningless games his team still loses. Don't forget that part.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 29, 2008 7:20 PM EST
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Fuck Yes
I always liked him better than Teixeira anyway.
by yurizanow on
Dec 28, 2008 9:47 PM EST
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I like a potential Dunn deal better than I liked Tex
Not that I think he’s a better player. He isn’t.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 29, 2008 2:36 AM EST
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More for your money
Teixeira would’ve cost more for reasons that I think are largely superficial, like first base defense and a higher batting average.
Also, I always thought that Teixeira came across as a conceited turd.
by yurizanow on
Dec 29, 2008 9:19 AM EST
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In the same vein, I would like to submit for your approval (or not) four free-agent outfielders, along with their 2008 salaries, and their Ultimate Zone Ratings (per 150 games and averaged over the last three seasons):
Manny Ramirez $20M -19
Bobby Abreu $16M -15
Pat Burrell $14M -14
Adam Dunn $13M -14
Atop those scary numbers, you’ve got the positional adjustments. For corner outfielders, it’s -7.5 runs. So now Burrell and Dunn are more than 20 runs in the hole before they even get a chance to run (ugh) or hit (yea!) (my emphasis).
That’s a recent Rob Neyer column. Texiera, in contrast, saves runs due to his defense.
by birdman on
Dec 29, 2008 1:16 PM EST
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Let him DH
I’ve never said that Teixeira isn’t a better defender or that defense has no value whatsoever, but I don’t value first base defense that much. It’s great if a guy plays it well, but it’s also not the end of the world of the guy plays that particular position adequately.
I have to admit that I’m biased on this one. I always liked Dunn because he’s a valuable player that everybody hates. I’ve always been kinda eh on Teixeira (who is also a valuable player) because he’s the shiny golden boy that everyone loves but sort of comes across as a jerk when you read about him. I admit it’s mostly irrational contrariness on my part.
by yurizanow on
Dec 29, 2008 3:33 PM EST
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I like Dunn
and find myself probably overly defensive about him because I feel that he gets a bum rap a lot when it’s not deserved. He’s a great ball player and while he’s not as well rounded as Mark Teixeira I find it hard to believe he’s not getting much recognition. It’s a disservice.
I’d love to have Adam Dunn in Baltimore and I actually think he’d fit in quite nicely on the team.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
by Stacey on
Dec 29, 2008 3:39 PM EST
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He is somewhat one dimensional
He isnt a great ball player, he is a great power hitter and good on base machine. He isnt a good defensive player or baserunner so he gives back some of his offensive gains. And he does have teams wary that he wont age well. At his price and because of his deficiencies a team has to spend money to fill a spot his salary might be used for such as corner infielders. If he shows some offensive decline he will become a very hard player to move and target of many fans.
Just look at Huff, we cant move him for much of anything. Hitters are available, most likely will be during the season and next off season as well.
At the right price fine but I dont see the O’s meeting his price. Looks like the Dodgers are using Dunn to get Manny to the table or maybe to keep him from the Giants.
Look at Ortiz in Boston. When these DH guys lose their ability to hit at the very high level they can become quick boat anchors to a team’s flexibility. Same thing with Thome. I dont see where a two year deal with Dunn hurts anyone. Maybe this year they dont want his salary but next year he cant hurt. I just think the O’s will wait until they miss every pitcher and then say “what the hey” we might as well sign Dunn for entertainment and he will be gone to someone by then.
by sanders833 on
Dec 29, 2008 4:33 PM EST
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He isnt a great ball player, he is a great power hitter and good on base machine.
The fact that he puts up such great power numbers and high OBP;. makes him a very good player. Whether or not you consider his level “great” is a matter of opinion. But he does do the two most important things for a hitter to do very well. If Dunn could be had for less than $14M per for a duration of 3 years or less, then he’ll be a steal in my opinion.
Huff isn’t getting a lot of attention because many people see 2008 as a semi-fluke. Dunn has been incredibly consistent. He’s put at least 40 HR’s 5 years straight. And his OBP is pretty much deadlocked on 386 for 4 of the last 5 years.
Finally, Thome and Ortiz are not good comparisons. Thome is 38. Ortiz is a Dominican 33. Dunn is 29. And despite each of them coming off down years for them, I’d hardly call them boat anchors.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 29, 2008 4:53 PM EST
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Look at Ortiz in Boston. When these DH guys lose their ability to hit at the very high level they can become quick boat anchors to a team’s flexibility. Same thing with Thome.
Ortiz was hurt and still really good when he played. He wasn’t dominant like before, but he was still contributing when he played. Thome is also still a valuable hitter, plus he’s 38. Dunn’s 29.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 29, 2008 5:47 PM EST
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Thome
is a boat anchor to Kenny Williams right now. You think Thome wont continue to decline in 2009 and draw what 13 million. That is my definition of a boat anchor. Doesnt mean he cant hit, but doesnt give value and is ready to drain more.
If Ortiz continues with his wrist and knee problems then he is a candidate for that to happen. I think Ortiz will be fine but sometimes rest doesnt cure these kind of ills and a player starts to show decline. If the decline continues then Ortiz could be a problem.
I would not want Thome and if Ortiz was offered to me as a GM just for taking on his salary I might have to pass since I could sign Jason Giambi for half the price and play him at DH.
by sanders833 on
Dec 29, 2008 5:58 PM EST
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So DH him
Problem solved. Or hide him in LF for a game or two a week. Seriously, we could use his bat.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST
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Anybody who doesn't think he's valuable is on dope
Dunn has had pretty much the exact same season for four straight seasons. He’s only four months older than Teixeira and there is no reason to think he isn’t going to be productive for the length of any reasonable.
For some reason a lot of fans and sportswriters seem think that Dunn is going to decline any moment now (perhaps it’s a side-effect of his lack of clutchiness), but when a guy is as consistent as Dunn has been for as long as he has been, I think he’d be money well-spent.
by yurizanow on
Dec 29, 2008 8:03 PM EST
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Anybody who doesn’t think he’s valuable is on dope.
Marty Brennanman is the only person who doesn’t like him. The SABER folks have loved him for years.
by birdman on
Dec 30, 2008 2:04 AM EST
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well, him and the GM of the Jays...
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 30, 2008 9:15 AM EST
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forgot he was lazy.
Still a very good player though, just lazy.
by birdman on
Dec 30, 2008 12:33 PM EST
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Show me the numbers
I’ll take those HRs and OBP.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 30, 2008 3:50 PM EST
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smug Thom Brennaman isn't a fan either
I see them as Buford T. Justice and his son, Junior. I can only hope that Marty calls Thom a tick turd during Christmas dinner.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 30, 2008 7:15 PM EST
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Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 30, 2008 7:42 PM EST
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i like dunn and all...
…but signing him means that we’re not really rebuilding anymore, which is what we should be doing. Of course, perhaps the Bedard and Tejada trades weren’t indicative of an Oriole rebuild in the first place.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on
Dec 29, 2008 8:24 PM EST
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i like dunn and all but signing him means that we’re not really rebuilding anymore

"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 30, 2008 12:59 AM EST
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with dunn comes what, tho?
We’d have to extend Roberts, and while he’s been one of the few good things in this organization means that we’ll be watching a declining player with an increasing salary. We’d prolly go out and sign Jon Garland and Paul Byrd as well, just to fill out the rotation. And I’m sure we’d do one more thing that was shortsighted, like trading Tillman or something.
I like Dunn and I wish the Orioles were in the position of being a player like Dunn away from contention. But if we were smart I think we should extend Markakis, trade Roberts and Huff for some infield prospects and hope that after the 2010 season we will a player like Dunn away from relevance.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on
Dec 30, 2008 2:17 AM EST
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I go back and forth on Dunn
With Dunn you have to look through the shortterm and try to figure where your team is going and can Dunn be integral in year three or four of a deal because I dont see Dunn signing with us on a two year program.
On a two year contract no worries, although I think the O’s are loathe to commit payroll in 2009 especially if it isnt for “core” pitching. 2010 they dont care as much since they dont have any. But why sign him at all when you are going to lose 90 games most likely both years? You are either contending or rebuilding. But lets assume it takes a four year deal to get him.
Its not as simple as saying you are going to DH him. If you commit 13-14 million to Dunn you have made it much harder to fill your corner infield problems since the O’s will have to go trade or free agency if they want a legit 30 homer guy in 2010. I am also assuming a guy like Brandon Snyder is going to project more as a DH then corner infielder since he cant field either.
I dont know if Dunn is lazy, not good in the clubhouse, etc. Krivsky should know the answers to that. I did a quick look at Dunn and he has played almost 160 games every year. I was trying to see if Burrell really wouldnt be a “just the same” type signing for probably less money. Burrell could DH for the O’s on a two year deal for 20 million while Dunn would probably want 4 at 13 or 52 mil min. Burrell isnt as durable, doesnt have quite the power (although I havent adjusted either for their parks), does have a higher OBP and is three years older.
The more I look at it I dont see the O’s going four years on Dunn or commiting 20 mil to Burrell especially when they dont want to commit payroll in 2009 to non core players and in 2010 you can sign a free agent anyway after evaluating the market next off season.
by sanders833 on
Dec 30, 2008 1:25 PM EST
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Huh?
Why are rebuilding and signing Dunn mutually exclusive? Who exactly do the Orioles have in their farm system that Dunn would take playing time away from? The Orioles are going to need to fill some of their needs through free agency.
by yurizanow on
Dec 30, 2008 5:34 PM EST
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it's the ancillary moves
If the Orioles sign Dunn, on some level that means that MacPhail is less focused on rebuilding and more focused on trying the failed strategies of the past. I like Dunn…he’s undervalued, young and no doubt would be a great player to have on the team. However, from my perspective, the Orioles need to be committed to rebuilding, and that means trading Roberts and Huff. If we can do that and sign Dunn, great. But if they sign Dunn, in all likelihood we won’t be trading Huff and some sure to be doomed effort to win 82 games next year. And they’ll probably sign some ill-fated stop gap pitcher like Jon Garland.
I’d much rather see the Orioles give LF to Reimold, move Scott to DH and trade Huff and Roberts and try to get someone like Randy Milligan or get real lucky and land the next Jeremy Guthrie.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on
Dec 31, 2008 1:02 AM EST
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“Rebuilding” does not necessarily mean get rid of all good players on the team, not sign good free agents at premium prices, and play ONLY young talent. The A’s did that, and the Twins did sort of the same thing, but the A’s and Twins had outstanding scouting and also, frankly, both got rather lucky. They did this because neither club spent any money thanks to tight-assed ownership. The Orioles have the money to spend. You can rebuild at the same time as “plugging your holes” with actual players, like the Tigers did.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Dec 31, 2008 1:39 AM EST
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You can rebuild at the same time as "plugging your holes" with actual players, like the Tigers did.
Yeah, but a lot of the short term contracts they gave out sucked (e.g., Jason Johnson, Vina) and Dunn would be a short term, expensive player. By the time the O’s are ready to compete, he’ll be gone. What’s the point of spending so much money for worthless wins.
by birdman on
Dec 31, 2008 2:29 AM EST
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But you have to have SOMEBODY there
MLB frowns upon only fielding teams of 6 to 8 players.
Dunn’s not blocking anyone, his price is falling through the floor, and SOMEONE has to play 1B. Why not pick up a cheap FA option to get us through, rather than rushing one of the kids? Do we REALLY want to see Brandon Snyder up here playing 1B right now?
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 31, 2008 11:37 AM EST
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Dunn’s not blocking anyone, his price is falling through the floor, and SOMEONE has to play 1B. Why not pick up a cheap FA option to get us through, rather than rushing one of the kids?
Well Dunn isn’t cheap… he may be a good value but he’s not cheap. If we can’t have Texiera than I prefer a good minor league free agent. Someone with a strong minor league track record but just hasn’t stuck on a major league roster. Dan Johnson comes to mind but he’s gong to Japan. Dallas McPherson is another interesting name but I’m not sure if he’s a minor league free agent.
by birdman on
Dec 31, 2008 5:16 PM EST
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"not cheap"
He’s plenty cheap when you aren’t paying jack all to anyone else. We have the payroll flexibility. Dunn at $13 mil per would not put us in dire straits down the line.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on
Jan 2, 2009 12:20 PM EST
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$13M is still expensive in itself. We could certainly afford such an expensive though.
by birdman on
Jan 2, 2009 4:43 PM EST
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fair enough
it’s a fair point, but I’d much rather have MacPhail focus on extracting as much talent as possible for Roberts and Huff. I’d love to be able to do those things and sign Dunn. And I’d love it for the Orioles to use some of their resources on things like talent. No argument from me. I just have little faith in the Orioles to make any of it happen.
I just remain unconvinced that we are really rebuilding at all.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on
Dec 31, 2008 11:35 AM EST
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We DEFINITELY are in the pitching department
We still have a ways to go in the field, but Andy’s getting there.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on
Dec 31, 2008 11:37 AM EST
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Dunn is going to want
a three or four year deal from the O’s I think. The O’s dont want a 13 million dollar hit to payroll in 2009. So unless Roberts and/or Huff are traded, I think the O’s will sniff around Dunn but keep waivering. I see this as one of the big obstacles to signing Dunn, year one salary.
The scenarios are interesting. If Brian and Nick stay, adding Dunn gives the O’s close to $30 million in those three over the next four years. But the O’s have no first or third basemen and they arent in the organization. Brandon Snyder projects at DH. Of course, you can play Dunn at first or even left (although I would think about switching Nick to left and letting Dunn play right (because the wall makes it easier to play right in Camden Yard). I also would like to see Nolan Reimold get a shot in left. But putting Dunn in the field adds negative value to his acquistion.
In year three what new commitments do the O’s have in salary? Guthrie, Jones, Sherrill and Ray… and any free agents. So payroll is manageable I think but the key is this….do you want to build payroll and make your team revolve around Adam Dunn?
Because the O’s will hopefully be getting to where adding two or three expensive pieces will make this team a contender. And it may pivot off of what Dunn can do in 2011? If he isnt able to carry a significant offensive burden….then you have your boat anchor scenario for a team that probably is going to have to win first to draw back the fans. I dont know if Peter Angelos will be willing to add payroll in advance, it may depend on the player development and his faith in AM. I think Andy is leery of making a major payroll mistake to early before the player development hits full stride.
But I also would have loved to been a fly on the wall when Andy said to Wayne “so what is your opinion on Dunn?”
by sanders833 on
Dec 31, 2008 12:39 PM EST
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I would
NOT be in favor of moving markakis. And I don’t necessarily agree that the wall makes it easier to play RF. I’ve seen Nick make some pretty awesome plays off the wall and throw people out at 2nd when most RF’ers would have been lucky just to stop the ball.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
by BPinOK on
Dec 31, 2008 1:03 PM EST
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The O’s dont want a 13 million dollar hit to payroll in 2009.
Based on what? They were willing to shell out somewhere around $20M for Teixera for 2009.
If Brian and Nick stay, adding Dunn gives the O’s close to $30 million in those three over the next four years. But the O’s have no first or third basemen and they arent in the organization. Brandon Snyder projects at DH.
Snyder is still playing 1B, so I wouldn’t say he can’t play that position just yet. In 2009, those guys are going to make far, far less than $30M and after 2009, the Orioles have almost no obligations at this point.
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Guthrie, Jones, Sherrill and Ray… and any free agents. So payroll is manageable I think but the key is this….do you want to build payroll and make your team revolve around Adam Dunn?.
I could be wrong, but with the exception of Sherrill, none of those guys are going to be a FA before 2012. I don’t thinking giving Adam Dunn $13M/’year constitutes building your team around him.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 31, 2008 1:04 PM EST
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Based on
Tex was an exception, a rule breaker as AM said. Dunn isnt a rule breaker.
I can read the scouting reports on Brandon. If its questionable in the minors, it most likely isnt suddenly getting better. Re 30 million in payroll I used the next four years. In 2009 it would be about 25 mill (13, 7 and 5). In 2010 it would probably be about 30 (13, 10 and 7).
Re Guts, Jones, etc-they are arb eligible meaning significant raises plus any free agents signed. I think giving Dunn $13 mill does constitute building around him for the O’s as their revenues may become compressed but more importantly I just think its a risk not needed. Dunn might give us three extra wins. Is that worth it?
I have my GM hat on…I dont need to add $13 million in payroll in 2009. Dont want to…not going to sell tickets, not going to make me a contender, not a rule breaker, not going to do it unless I move payroll first. So its got short term monetary concerns and longer term concerns about payroll flexibility and what kind of value Dunn brings over the long haul.
by sanders833 on
Dec 31, 2008 2:19 PM EST
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If you have a ML caliber first baseman bat, chances are that your glove isn’t going to prevent you from making the majors as a first baseman. If he was a shortstop I would agree, but we are talking about first here.
Jones isn’t even arbitration eligible until next year, is he? And I think Guts is in the same boat. Of course they are going to get raises as they go through arbitration (assuming they don’t fall apart), but they are going to hit FA for 4 years. That shouldn’t be a concern at all in to whether sign Dunn or not.
And come on, a $13M/year contract is hardly a large contract. That would not be the cornerstone of any team with the possible exception of Florida. The Orioles have a decent amount of money they can spend now, and they get anywhere near 500, that’ll likely only increase.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 31, 2008 2:39 PM EST
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ok
you dont value defense I understand…
I think you are missing most of my salary points. I am just trying to define the additional fixed costs that would possibly accrue to the thirty million committed already to the three previously discussed. If you think it isnt a concern I accept your point.
Why add a 13 million a year commitment to a rebuilding plan? If you disagree, totally understandable but I am into risk managment. I accept your point.
by sanders833 on
Dec 31, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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I value defense
but all defense is not the same. Except under some extreme examples, I probably wouldn’t hesitate to bring up a first baseman because I didn’t like his defense. Snyder and just about every other first baseman’s path to the majors should be dictated by their bat, not their glove. Ryan Howard is one of the worst defensive first baseman in the league, but most people care more about his OBP in 2008, not his Range Factor.
I would add that $13M contract for several reasons. First, I think it’s undervalued. Dunn at $13M/year is a great deal in my opinion. Second, it would likely improve this team, which clearly isn’t the most important thing, but as long as your not mortgaging the future, that seems to be a no brainer. Moving closer to a competitive team would likely increase revenue for the O’s. Third, I don’t know if it does anyone any good to send the message to all your players that this is losing team with no expectations. And finally, this deal would likely overlap the timeframe when the Orioles should expect to be competitive. If the Orioles are still in rebuilding mode 3 years from now, then it’s pretty much irrelevant to whether they sign him or not.
To me, rebuilding doesn’t mean that should try to be as bad as possible and do absolutely nothing to improve your team now.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 31, 2008 3:08 PM EST
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And...
You’re right, I don’t completely understand what you are saying with regards to salaries. Sure, every single player that ends up staying with the Orioles or any other team through the arbitration years is likely going to get raises from their rookie salary (or will not be offered a contract). I dont’ see how this is a special occurance or how it effects Dunn.
Between Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez, Aubrey Huff, Joan Baez, Jamie Walker, Roberts (assuming he doesn’t sign), and JAY FUCKIN GIBBONS; the Orioles will be dropping $45M in payroll. They should have tons of flexibility going forward, and I don’t see how that’s jeopardized by having Guthrie or Ray being in their second arbitration year in 2011.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 31, 2008 3:23 PM EST
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All good points
I think as a fan I would love to have Dunn.
If I knew what player salary budgets the O’s were projecting over the next four years I would feel better about my decision either way. But if the number is 70 million then Dunn would be 18-20% of salary expense. That is a big committment esp to a projected AL DH.
I balance that with this question-is Dunn the guy you want to hitch up with? Why not wait and see if better options present themselves in trades, during the season and next offseason or even the year after? I compare it some to this year’s stock market. Every month better values kept showing up.
In the end we are going to disagree and that is one of the purposes of the board. Thanks for the replies.
by sanders833 on
Dec 31, 2008 3:23 PM EST
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I like the idea of being patient
And waiting to see what you need when you are rebuilign. It’s the main reason I wasn’t thrilled about going after Tex. But Dunn seems relatively cheap for what you are getting and he wouldn’t seem to require a long term contract.
It’s all a moot point though, we aren’t getting him.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on
Dec 31, 2008 3:26 PM EST
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