It's a Small World After All (Pt. II) - Javy (not that one), A.J. and the Orioles

by duck on Dec 3, 2008 7:41 PM EST in News Comment 41 comments

Just as they were finalizing a trade for Javier Vazquez, the Braves were preparing a five-year offer for A.J. Burnett, according to sources. Burnett, considered the No.2 starter on the market, was expected to wait for Sabathia to make the first move. But with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all apparently hesitant to give Burnett a fifth year, the 31-year-old might jump at Atlanta's offer before Sabathia makes his decision.

NEWS:

The Braves agreed to a trade Tuesday that will bring them veteran Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Javier Vazquez and a reliever, a person familiar with negotiations said.

In a six-player deal, the biggest Braves talent — literally and figuratively — going to Chicago is catching prospect Tyler Flowers, a 6-foot-4, 248-pound slugger who was the best power hitter in the Arizona Fall League.

The Braves were also expected to send infielder Brent Lillibridge, minor league third baseman Jon Gilmore and rookie-league lefty Santos Rodriguez to Chicago for Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan.

The hypothesized Orioles’ attempt at acquiring Javier Vazquez (Delmarva Shorebirds c/o ’96) is now a moot point as he looks to be on his way to Atlanta. But not just that, Atlanta now looks to add Maryland native A.J. Burnett as well.

So, now not only is one decently priced option off the table in Vasquez, but the injury-riddled yet expensive Burnett will now have yet another suitor for his services. Basic supply and demand dictates this will serve only to drive up the price for his services, and also give him leverage to demand another player option year onto whatever contract that he eventually signs.

Burnett may well have a preference to play near his hometown, but I doubt seriously he will take one dollar less from the Orioles to do so. And more importantly, after Burnett signs, who is left that will help the Orioles rotation? Paul Byrd? Hey, Jamie Moyer’s available again! Sidney Ponson’s a free agent – how about a third try?

Remind me again how we’re building to be competitive in 2010…

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And more importantly, after Burnett signs, who is left that will help the Orioles rotation?

Move JJ into the rotation. Give Olson and R. Liz another shot. Might as well as resign D. Cabrera becaus somebody has to pitch. Don’t spend foolishly on someone like Burnett. The O’s are rebuilding. Expect some major sucking instead of throwing money at free agents.

Remind me again how we’re building to be competitive in 2010…

Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz. The big four. And 2011 is more realistic.

by birdman on Dec 3, 2008 8:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm becoming much more resigned to the fact

it will be 2011. And we will waste 2 of Wieters’ 6 years in Baltimore in the meantime.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 3, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On the bright side

We get 7 years out of Wieters if we leave him at AAA for a few weeks.

But Markakis’s clock is ticking…

by dkdc on Dec 3, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for a May 15 call-up

if that’s enough time to postpone the clock

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 3, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And immediately signing him to a massive contract extension

like a certain third baseman down souf.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 3, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's a Boras client

He will never sign an extension. Ever. Six MLB service years – that’s all we’re getting. Make ’em count.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 6:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And I'm all for JJ in the rotation

and don’t mind giving Olson and Liz one more shot.

Danny Cabs? Uh, no. I’m done with him. He’s shown time and again he just doesn’t have the mental side of starting pitching. That’s not an indictment of his intelligence, but rather his lack of patience and lack of a sensible approach to pitching through an entire game rather than batter by batter. He may win most of the battles, but eventually, he loses the war.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 3, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

fuck a cab...

waters was better last year.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Dec 4, 2008 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we have enough data to say for certain

Waters didn’t pitch long enough to say whether he’ll be successful longer then the 11 games last season. An ERA of 5.01 suggests he could improve a bit, but is “a bit” enough?

It would make sense to keep both if it weren’t for Cabrera’s so-to-be arb raise.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 4, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Cabrera has to go. I’ve lost all faith in the guy.

by blawk359 on Dec 4, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jim Johnson always pitched like a starter to me

move him to the rotation.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 4, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First things first, if Burnett is not willing to take one dollar less to sign with the Orioles, then he doesn’t have a preference for signing with the Orioles, and he probably doesn’t. Second, I don’t want an expensive injury riddled pitcher.

Second, I think I’m beginning to understand the trade market, a surplus of prospects for a pitcher, and a can of beans for a hitter. Disappointing.

Finally, although I realize the Orioles need help, but Javy Vasquez was never a good idea because we don’t want to give up prospects for veterans. We know we’re not contending.

by math_geek on Dec 3, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Javy would have been a bad idea...

just for the fact that, as math_geek mentions, we know we’re not contending. Attempting to get someone like that who wont make much difference is the old way of thinking. I don’t feel like we should waste time/money on people like Javier Vasquez. If it is not a major splash or a very cheap veteran, I can’t see why we should do it.

by sickuvitall on Dec 3, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

So the Braves best pitcher is Jair Jurgen and a bunch of maybe’s. What was the Braves record last year?

Amazing, take JJ and add Javy and AJ, mix in Tommy Hanson and you have a staff. Interesting. Supplement with the maybes.

Take Jeremy Guthrie and add Javy and AJ mix in Brian Matusz, or Chris Tillman and you have a staff. Interesting. Supplement with the maybes.

I guess one big difference is being in a division other then the AL East. But you know you can just say your rebuilding friggin forever or you can try to do something without compromising your best prospects.

Javy would have been a good idea if you were ready to go sign AJ or someone else so that we could get 600 innings with someone having a chance to get an era around 4. Guthrie, Javy and AJ fit that bill.

Its done now but damn we need starting pitching or 2009 and 2010 are going to look a lot like 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005…etc.

NO staff in the AL East was grown internally except the Yankees (Hughes, Kennedy, Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain) Of course, that staff hasnt won anything yet. Tampa (Garza, Jackson and Kazmir-trades) Beckett, Dice K-trades, free agent.

IF the entire prospects for this team is going to be our minor league system we arent going to contend in 2011 either. Forget Weiters for a moment. Do you realize how fortunate we will be if in 2011 two pitchers in our system are very good out of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta , Erbe, Hernandez, Britton, Bergenson, Patton, Liz and Olsen. That is what the odds tell us.

Look I am letting off a little steam here. Realistically, waiting until the next off season makes more sense as the Big Four will be that much closer and then we can determine if making a conscious decision like the Braves to add two pitchers make sense. Economically, waiting another year may payoff. The problem is the Yanks will always have money, Boston has pitching, money and the farm system and Tampa is just loadedddd. At some point, the O’s are going to have to make their play.

by sanders833 on Dec 3, 2008 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if AJ ain't coming here

then I’m glad he’ll be out of the division.

by fishoutawata on Dec 3, 2008 11:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

really? I was hoping the Yankees would sign him to a HUGE contract

by math_geek on Dec 4, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just HUGE

and MANY, MANY years. Kinda like Carl Pavano, except WAY more money, is what I’m hoping for.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 6:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

more like Paul BIRD

Am I right?

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Dec 4, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Did anybody really think that Vazquez or Burnett (or both!) were going to make the O's competitive????

I want some of that kool-aid…

by O'sFan21 on Dec 4, 2008 10:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

The Orioles would win 96 games with those two.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Dec 4, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha I really hope that's a joke.

by O'sFan21 on Dec 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Screw those two guys, all we really need is Bedard back

He’s the final piece. Let’s trade the farm for him.

by PhilR8 on Dec 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but seriously...

if (as frequent scuttelbutt’s suggested) the m’s non-tender bedard, would you go after him? i would.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Dec 4, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

If he’s reasonably cheap, absolutely.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That rumor was when they thought he was more hurt

the surgery he had proved it wasn’t as bad as they thought. I can’t imagine them non-tendering him.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Dec 4, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 4, 2008 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by jobe on Dec 4, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

96 games...what!!

Javier Vasquez + AJ Burnett + Current Orioles = 80 wins AT BEST.

by sickuvitall on Dec 4, 2008 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

90+... here's why

Steady QSs = a rested BP. Somebody should try to figure how many games we would have been in in 08 if our starter had given up 3 through six. Think of all the games we scored 6+ runs and lost. Add two quality starters to the rotation, and a high-scoring offense starts to matter.

by fishoutawata on Dec 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's happened at least two years in a row

We get to mid-season, hanging around .500, then our tired BP catches up to us, and BAM, mid-August happens and we drop off a cliff.

Guts + Javy + AJ = much more rested bullpen. And maybe the last 6 weeks of the season don’t go as badly as they traditionally have.

But now Javy’s a Brave, AJ is about to clean up after CC signs, and the O’s are left to ponder the possibilities of Paul Byrd.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the difference between a well-rested and tired bulllpen is 10+ games?

Really?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well if Matt Garza

and Evan Longoria are apparently worth 25+ games, why not?

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know

I think the real difference is this-when do you TRY to put together a staff of at least four legit starters who can go 175-225 innings per year with an era under 4.50 and one or two of those guys under 4.

The Orioles have one at the moment in Guthrie, Javy and AJ would have made it three. That has a domino effect in the bullpen. The bullpen is rested, they save the starters runs and close out games. The offense doesnt has to be as good.

Once you have a core then you can look at the marginal decisions. Now do you want to look at Kerry Wood for two years and reslot the bullpen? Keith Law thinks K Wood is far and away the best pitcher out there over K Rod and Fuentes. For two years at 20 he would be perfect. But why bother when all you have is Jeremy Guthrie?

Does Adam Dunn make sense now? Do you go after a fourth starter like Randy Wolf or even Carl Pavano? How long until Tillman, Arrieta or Matusz contribute?

At the moment it just seems like we want to go small and never make a play. Well this team is going to have to get two starting pitchers from somewhere else. Do you trade Delmon Young for Matt Garza, or steal Scott Kazmir or trade a vet like Huff for an Edwin Jackson or trade Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett.

At some point the O’s are going to have to take a splash. I dont know what year but you cant to it all from the farm system. A trade or systematically adding a free agent or ripping off another Seattle deal but at some point you have to blend trades, with the minor leaguers and free agents.

As I have repeatedly said, Andy what have you done for me lately?

by sanders833 on Dec 4, 2008 5:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of all the names tossed about here...

… (excepting maybe Bedard), the only one I’d have the least bit of interest in trying to sign is Jamie Moyer.

What is the down side to signing Moyer? Do you think 3 years would do it?

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 4, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You sign Myoer to 3 years

and you’re paying him to (not) pitch at age 48. You do realize the guy’s 46 years old as of last month, right?

Born November 18, 1962
Debut June 16, 1986

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Dec 4, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, two years.

The guy doesn’t break down and at the speeds he throws, it’s entirely possible he could keep it up for another couple years.

(Although I didn’t realize he was 46. For some reason I thought he was in his early 40’s.)

Is there anything in his stats from this past season that make you thing he’s washed up?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=1799

Those numbers would make him the ace of the staff in Baltimore. Furthermore he could bring the sort of veteran presence to the staff that can only help. Moyer is not an aloof type of guy. Very down to earth. Not that I think it’s likely to happen, but imagine if he could help Cabs with his control? I do think it’s entirely possible that he could help with some of the staff.

Using the most optimistic projections, the O’s are at least 2 years away from even being competative (read – having a chance to finish 3rd in the division). Moyer looks to me to be as good a fit as possible for this team. Close to 200 innings, good clubhouse presence, reasonable salary, positive influence on a young staff and just possibly the second best pitcher on the staff after Guthrie.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Four things

Even Warren Spahn finally just wore out….(if he had worked out some maybe he would have pitched to 50)
NL East versus AL East
Phillies Bullpen versus Orioles bullpen
Look at his 2007 numbers, a 5.01 era.

Jamie will resign with the Phillies I guess unless one of the other NL teams think he can repeat and figure they can hurt the Phils and help themselves but I wouldnt bet on it. I bet if we researched his numbers we find he might have gotten extremely lucky in 2008.

I know there are some people who still have the Moyer fascination, folks lets just let it go.

by sanders833 on Dec 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't there a difference between looking for that piece to put you in contention ...

… and looking to fillout your rotation while you wait for your system to start producing major league talent?

The guy has averaged 200 innings for the past 10+ seasons. He’s also managed double digit win totals every year but one for the past dozen seasons. He doesn’t issue a lot of walks and he’s just as likely to post an ERA around his career average of 4.19 as he is to be over 5.00. Name a pitcher out there that makes more sense for Baltimore to sign as a FA.

I can’t see it being Burnett. At least not when you take into account the cost difference. Ignoring any issue one might have with Burnett’s durability, the guy is going to want 5 years. If we are lucky, he will only be on his third year when the O’s start fielding a decent team. Meaning he won’t really start to matter until he’s 34. Baltimore has to pray that not only does he stay healthy, but that he will continue to perform at his pay level at 35 and 36. Otherwise we will have given up a couple of high draft selections and a whole bunch of money for maybe one meaningful season.

I don’t see where Moyer offers the same downside.

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Dec 5, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

signing Jamie to a one or even two year deal wont matter one way or the other but I suspect he would be ugly for the O’s.

My point, is Jamie is just as likely to turn into Brian Burres in the AL East if he reverts to 2007 form. I would like to find some one that gives a little more certainity.

But if you want to go two or three years on him go right ahead.

by sanders833 on Dec 5, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs