Odds for Jeremy Guthrie repeating

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 16, 2008 4:18 PM EST

One of the biggest questions of the upcoming season, in my oppinion, is can Jeremy Guthrie repeat last years performance? I personally think its not unreasonable to expct an ERA in the low 4's. His BABIP (batting average of balls hit in play) was .275 in case you were wondering.

Let me know what you all think, I would add a poll but i cant figure out how to get it to appear, so if one of you all can let met know how to do that, that would be amazing.

Poll

Predicted ERA

Under 3.5

2 votes

3.5-4.0

14 votes

4.0-4.5

18 votes

4.5+

4 votes

38 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

poll

ok so the poll doesnt want to work for me, so let me know what i have to do to fix that.

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 16, 2008 4:23 PM EST reply actions

Whatever you did worked!

I remember 14 straight foul balls in one at-bat.

by duck on Feb 16, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

sweet

I still cant see it for some reason, but all's well that ends well.

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 17, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

Stats

Pre All-Star Break:

4-2
102 IP
2.74 ERA
0.91 WHIP
.207 BAA
6.35 K/9
1.58 BB/9

Post All-Star Break:

3-3
73.1 IP
5.03 ERA
1.62 WHIP
.300 BAA
6.26 K/9
3.57 BB/9

I don't need to go into fancy/semi-useless sabermetrics to show that his season went off the tracks. Strike out rate remained the same, so I'm inclined to believe he still had the same stuff. He had super human control the first half, but then his BBs more than doubled.

I REALLY hope Guthrie has another good or even average season and has a long career. But I'm also prepared to accept the possibly that he had a fluke season and will be out of the league within 3ish years.

by UMterp08 on Feb 16, 2008 7:28 PM EST reply actions

Control Guys

I think fireballers who have good seasons out of nowhere tend to be flukes other than guys with great control.

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 16, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

tired

Maybe he had a tired arm and lost his control because of that since it was his first Major League season?

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 17, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

I for one, am praying...

...that Guthrie doesn't go and pull a Jose Mercedes on us.

Granted, Guthrie's Ks, K/BB ratio, WHIP...all the ancillary stats...were far, far better than Mercedes' were the year he won 14, and of course, Ws are mostly worthless as a stat for judging pitchers. Still, Mercedes had a 40 point drop in ERA+...so, again, hoping that doesn't happen here. I don't think it will, but I also don't think there's reason to believe that Guthrie is going to be a #1.

by KenDixonFanClub on Feb 16, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions

odds of a repeat

Slim. IIRC, Guthrie had a real low BABIP (or maybe it was DIPS).

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 16, 2008 8:47 PM EST reply actions

I've figured out

That I need to take a special statistics course to learn all these baseball stats.

This is worse than DifEq

by dfleis on Feb 16, 2008 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure with DifEq

you could build your own stats.

Anyway, I don't know if already know or if you care but BABIP isn't that hard, DIPS I'd have to look up.

BABIP: Batting average of balls in play. The mean is about .290. There are reasons for individual players to have lower BABIP's these pitchers typically do it over the course of their careers.

I'm too lazy to look up DIPS.. but it's Defense Independent Pitching.. Something.. I'm assuming it's similar to DERA and FIP

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 16, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions

Regress to the mean

He'll be a good back of the rotation guy, but I'm not sure his low 2007 BABIP is sustainable.

Where does that leave him.. I'd say his 2nd half is more indicative of the player you'll see in 08'.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 16, 2008 10:10 PM EST reply actions

I think you're

underestimating his ceiling. I mean he was a first round pick of the Indians in 2002. I would love to see him not be the opening day starter in 2009 so it could be Adam Loewen's spot.
Speaking of Canadian left handers, has anybody heard where Rich Harden could end up?

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 17, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Right-hander

Seems like he'd be a sell-low guy if traded at this point. The As will probably keep him until the trade deadline in hopes he can stay healthy long enough for teams to recognize how fantastic a pitcher he is and offer the farm for him. Blanton is a hotter commodity, even though he's a lesser pitcher, simply because he stays healthy.

by Dr Orpheus on Feb 18, 2008 2:52 AM EST up reply actions

Thats kind of embarrasing

Harden could be a current precedent-setter, as showing what teams will give up for a pitcher with incredible stuff but has shown he can't stay healthy. Though I could be looking way too much into this as there probably will be some team that offers the farm for him amidst considerably tamer offers.

"All I have to say is our partner is going to shock the world because he is none other than THE SHOCKMASTER!"-Sting

by jobe on Feb 18, 2008 4:07 AM EST up reply actions