zknower 1, danny-haters 0

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 12:00 AM EDT

Okay, I know it's actually something like danny-haters 2, zknower 1.

But I got the 1, nonetheless. I only wish I'd been around to see it tonight.

I am on record all over the old site as saying I thought

Cabrera was worth giving one more year; and
Kranitz might be the difference since Mazzone obviously wasn't.

Yeah, I know, tonight is just one night. And we need to see consistency. And all that.

Fine.

But after tonight's lovely start can we maybe put away the pitchforks and stop asking that Cabrera be sent down to AAA?

Please?

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I missed the game too

but read the pitches afterwords.

Cabrera did great, and since we somehow won the last two games we put Cabrera in, I'll give you zknower 1, Cabrera-haters 1/2, so you can keep the lead. He was one of the best players on the field today, and I hope he keeps it up.

On doubted players performing, a special thank you is in order to Ramon Hernandez. Razor, you can hit as many go ahead HRs as your heart desires this year. Please.

by math_geek on Apr 13, 2008 2:29 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

no.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 2:46 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

BUT...

You have given me an idea. Since you're his most vocal supporter and I'm his most vocal critic, we are now battling in Cabrera Bowl '08 (under the MASN ad on the left sidebar).

If he gets a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER or less) then you get a point. If he doesn't, I do.

There are some shades of grey starts -- if Trembley pushes him into the 7th or 8th and he loses a QS, then circumstance will dictate the scoring of that particular start. You could still get a point. Mismanagement isn't his fault, and that's certainly been an issue with him in the past.

GAME ON. Hope you win.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 2:59 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

GAME ON

I think you may well win this. I'm guessing, based on nothing more than instinct, that only the top 25% or so of ML pitchers have a ratio of QS over 50%. And I ain't saying Danny Boy will become Érikkkk overnight. I'm saying he'll improve significantly over last year, and that by the AS break, no one will question that he is at least a #3 starter. Harder to define, to be sure.

But hey, BRING IT ON. I like a good challenge.

One technical note: I think ANY start in which he pitches a QS and then gets held into the 7th or beyond and loses it, I should still get the point. As far as I'm concerned, if he goes 3ER in 6IP, he has done his job for the night. What circumstances do you foresee where it wouldn't be Trembley's fault for leaving him in?

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 8:08 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

If he had only thrown 80 or fewer pitches

He shouldn't implode in the 7th unless he was left hanging out there with a high pitch count. Yes, a QS is doing your job, but so is 100 good pitches.

by punkrawka on Apr 13, 2008 8:31 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

HA HA HA HA HA

Okay, fair enough.

Do you really think there will be games where he gets through the 6th with

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 8:40 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

we'll be loose about the rules

I mean, I think we'll be able to agree when it's Danny being pushed too far and Danny just losing himself.

If there's a night he goes 5 1/3 or 5 2/3 or something with 1 run, I think you get the point, too. QS is too cut-and-dry a method.

We'll know.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I'd reccomend that you have rules about teams too

If he allows 4 ER against say Boston or Detroit if they get their act together, you shouldn't get a point for that. 4 ER in 6 innings is still a quality start against the best hitting teams.

by math_geek on Apr 13, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

no

Because if that holds, then Z shouldn't get a point if Cabrera smokes Minnesota or KC or whatever. A win is a win in the standings, and what if we play Boston on a day where Ortiz is nursing a sore toe and Manny sits out because he had a nightmare or something, because after all, it's just the ORIOLES.

I found it hard to dis any team's offensive abilities since I think we have by far the weakest lineup in the AL.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I can see your point

And Boston's lineup without Ortiz and Manny is not really Boston as well.

Nevertheless, I thought Cabrera's performance was impressive because it was against the Rays as opposed to say Minnesota, or KC, but it is pretty difficult to measure, as teams get hot and cold.

I would agree with you that we have the weakest lineup in the AL, but they certainly haven't been playing that way. Consistent hitters like Luke Scott are more dangerous than all the HR hitters in the world. However, we've got to find somebody in cleanup who is enough of a threat to scare than from walking Nicky Mark.

by math_geek on Apr 13, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

rays will probably have an above average offense this year

even with some of the scrubs they had up

by Y Not on Apr 13, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

that's what i said

by math_geek on Apr 13, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

yes, that's exactly what you said

And I have ADD apparently.

by Y Not on Apr 13, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

agreed.

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

don't know why that post got cut off, but it should have said...

...through the 6th with only 80 pitches? HA HA!

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

also,

thanks for tagging the story. i completely forgot.

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 9:14 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Well

I am going to say that his ERA is around 4.40. Not good not bad, but above 3 ER. I guess that is the grey area.

by Baltimo on Apr 13, 2008 4:16 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I'd be thrilled with 4.40 out of Cabs

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I'm happy for you, Z, and glad I didn't post The Song.

For the record, *I* never said he should be sent down. I said *traded*, and while the word *potential* was still being used within hailing distance of his name (and I assume last season was the end point of that). So here we are.

Rah, Daniel! Now go for two in a row, be a real giant gila monster.

Rah Rah Rasputin / Lover of the Russian queen
There was a cat that / Really loved Birds. -- Boney M

by Titov on Apr 13, 2008 8:12 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I don't think...

even Cabrera's worst critics ever suggested he wasn't capable of the occasional good, even brilliant, start. The guy was 2 outs away from a no-hitter against the Yankees in 2006. Obviously, when everything goes just right, the guy can pitch. Consistency has always been the issue, and so far in this young season he has made 1 good start out of 3. If he gives us a whole season of that he will still suck.

"If you know how to cheat, start now." - Earl Weaver

by rebop on Apr 13, 2008 8:49 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

yes, this YOUNG season

I know that consistency is the point.

The debate here is this: Cabrera's worst critics have said:

* we should have traded him in the offseason for a bag of Doritos or the like
* he should be sent to AAA already
* he will never be worth anything to this team

And my point has always been:

* Danny was a not-bad pitcher three years ago
* Mazzone was the wrong teacher for him and colossally fucked him up
* Kranitz may well be the right teacher for him; and in a season where we are going to lose no matter what, Kranitz deserves at least half a year of tutelage to try to provide consistent results with Danny
* Hanging on to him to try this different approach is not really costing the team.

I truly don't think that Danny will do better than 1/3 QS early this year. But I think by the AS break, he will be pitching .500 ball or better (maybe 1/2 QS starting right around that time), because he will have had months of working with Kranitz at that point.

by zknower on Apr 13, 2008 9:13 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I tend to agree...

with you as far as I think we might as well stick with him. No argument there. I just think the chances of him turning things around are much slimmer than you do. I am not expecting any miracles out of Kranitz. Neither Mazzone nor Miller were able to get the guy to throw strikes consistently, and they were two of the best pitching coaches in the biz. Who knows, maybe Kranitz can work miracles. But that's what it would be at this point--a miracle.

"If you know how to cheat, start now." - Earl Weaver

by rebop on Apr 13, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Don't underestimate the power of Doritos for the rest of our guys

by punkrawka on Apr 14, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hmmm

what I noticed last night more than anything was that his velocity was down. He seemed to be topping out at 92 most of the time rather than 95-96 like he usually does. Maybe new look Danny means Kranwich finally has him exchanging speed for control. Or maybe TB's radar gun is just fucked up.

by Jonny Pops on Apr 13, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

MLB.com had him clocked at 95-97 for most of the game

I've been to the trop. I wouldn't be surprised if they fucked that up.

by Y Not on Apr 13, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

You just keep reaching for the cupcake

Let's check in at the AS break and see how Danny stacks up against the league average in a number of stats.

League Average Pitcher 2207

It would provide a better overall assessment than QS alone. Maybe we use OBP, SLG, BB/K, BB/9, K/9, HR/9, QS. It's best of 7 competition. If the guy is league average or better on four of them he'll be considered a resounding success. If not, he's a miserable failure.

by drj on Apr 13, 2008 10:50 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

when he makes real

consistent (and i mean consistent, of course of at least ten starts) will i start to believe. he's been so up and down that it's impossible to believe in him after just a couple starts

"If you're not practicing, somebody else is, somewhere, and he'll be ready to take your job." -Brooks Robinson

by exitfare on Apr 13, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

i agree

the thing about him that makes him so frustrating is the fact that he throws in a few amazing starts between his many lousy ones.

needs to be consistent.

by Y Not on Apr 13, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

screw Cabs

And this new, fast balls only approach won't work for very long. One, the word is out now. Two, his control will go in and out as it always does. I don't see how throwing only fastballs will fix this problem.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Apr 14, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

It's worth a shot, though. Nothing else has ever worked. If this is last resort -- and limiting him to essentially just one pitch sounds pretty last resort to me -- then so be it.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 14, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

3 in a row

Another quality start for Danny. Just for the record, have always been on the zknower side. Always thought that he easily has enough talent for the O’s rotation

pitched well tonight, seems like his composure on the mound is much better this year and its good to see some more manageable pitch counts going into the later innings than in previous years

lets hope he keeps it up

by NickMarkaces on Apr 24, 2008 1:01 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs