Rays 6, O's 2: Let's examine these 12 games

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 7:16 PM EDT in Post-Game Comment 14 comments

We're 7-5. It's true. But let's really take a look at this 7-5 record of ours, and see if this is a team legitimately outperforming expectations, or a team just sort of, you know, 7-5 because that's just sort of how it is.

Coming into today's loss to the Rays, the O's were hitting .253/.331/.423 as a team. Who's performing?

Luke Scott is performing. Brian Roberts is performing. Nick Markakis is performing, even though it took him 12 games to get his first homer. Nick's walking like crazy because teams are willing to pitch around him to get to Millar in many cases.

And then there's Aubrey Huff, who has a couple of big games and has been abysmal otherwise. For those not really keeping an eye on it, "Mr. Clutch" is now hitting .244.

After those two, the hitting falls off a cliff. Luis Hernandez is "surprising" people, but really take a look at those numbers -- he's still sporting a sub-.650 OPS. Brandon Fahey is 1-for-11 on the season, and we all know he can't hit. So you're looking at a two-headed monster at shortstop that simply cannot hit enough to help. Alex Cintron is no prize, but he'd be markedly better than either of them.

Mora has hit a couple of homers, but overall he stinks, too. Millar has looked terrible. Ramon Hernandez is struggling mightily.

It's way too early to have anything at all to really say about the pitching, past the fact that this rotation is going to just kill us. It's one thing to understand that they're bad; it's another to watch it happen. Loewen and Cabrera and Burres are going to be extremely frustrating to watch game-to-game. The bullpen, a strong point early, is showing serious chinks in the armor. Sound familiar? Same scenario as last season, featuring "Lights Out" John Parrish.

We're 2-3 against Tampa Bay, 1-2 against Texas, and 4-0 against Seattle, whose bullpen imploded on them and allowed that sweep. Is this team really playing above expectations?

I have my doubts. And that's not me trying to be negative, it's just what I'm thinking about at the moment.

I am proud to say that Brian Roberts has more hops than Akinori Iwamura.

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Lets say we split that series with the Mariners

We are 5-7, maybe that is more realistic. We had so many come from behinds against the M's it may be more realistic to say that if we had just split that four game series with them the O's wouldn't be overachieving and would be a 5-7 team, not exceeding anything.

The thing is, we have played a bunch of mediocre teams so far and have only managed to be 7-5 as a result of a win streak against the M's, when we have to start playing New York and Boston on a regular basis our record will even out.

by Baltimo on Apr 13, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agree

we should be 5-7 at this point. Once we start playing the YankSox, Angels, even the Blue Jays, we'll see what this team is really made out of.

"If you're not practicing, somebody else is, somewhere, and he'll be ready to take your job." -Brooks Robinson

by exitfare on Apr 13, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's gonna be a lot like

watching sausage getting made - we'd rather NOT know what this team is actually made of.

"I'd just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think that we'd save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves." - Major League

by duck on Apr 13, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they've given up 53 runs and scored 55

So 7-5 is not unreasonable. I expect the run differential will spread in a decidedly less positive way and we'll have to leave Birdland. Though you're thinking that you're leaving there too soon.

Ain't it funny (crummy) how it feels when you're finding out its real.

by drj on Apr 13, 2008 10:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nah I'm not surprised or upset or anything

It's just that I don't know how much attention some of the sportswriters are paying, and they're filling people up with false hope in the process. Like the Jesus Miracle scenario.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to expand

and what it is that bothers me about that is then people don't have the right idea, they become further alienated by a team that's actually, finally, making strides in the correct direction, and they just go, "these guys suck."

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 13, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because of the Bedard and Tejada trades

plus the hiring of Andy McPhail, and a certain amount of respect for Dave Trembley,

I've actually started to really follow baseball for the first time this decade. The fairweather fans are only going to be happy if the Orioles win, and that can't be helped. I guess you could call me a fairweather fan, but in truth all I needed was a belief that the team was going to try to get better. Every good performance by Scott, Moore, Jones, Albers, Sarfate, Randor, Wieters, etc... pumps me up more than winning a game would.

Although, lemme tell you, winning is pretty cool too.

by math_geek on Apr 13, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Winning is cool. Can you imagine what it would be like if your team did this all the time?

MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC

by spike2131 on Apr 13, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

damn. No one picked up on the Neil Young reference.

by drj on Apr 14, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For people who expected this team to be hstorically awful

their expectations were probably exceeded.

Also props to Guthrie, who has pitched very well in his last two starts.

Nick Markakis: The Actual Greek God of Walks

by wickedwitch on Apr 13, 2008 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We are not actually a good team

But we can pretend. Thats more than can be said for, say, last years team.

MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC MAGIC

by spike2131 on Apr 13, 2008 11:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

fwiw...

a brief perusal of pythagorean records on baseball reference has the o's at 6-6, the blue jays have the best pythag record in the al east at 8-4. the tigers are exactly as bad in real life as they purport to be under pythag.

by j.q. higgins on Apr 14, 2008 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Tigers are going to have problems with that bullpen all year, even if everything else comes along. They're digging a hole I don't think they're going to be able to get out of.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Apr 14, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, they're hitters...

all average out to the prime age of 31.7, right up there w/ the yanks, the blue jays and the mariners. does it matter? i dunno, but i can say that the 1000 run predictions were wildly off the mark.

by j.q. higgins on Apr 14, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs