Adam Loewen's Case
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"Loewen was pitching against a good line-up and it says a lot about him and the improvements he has made by shutting them down after the first inning."
--Dave Trembley
It's a nice thing to say. It doesn't necessarily make it something that you should put in your pocket and keep close to your heart.
Yes, Loewen was better after the first inning last night. But it would have been hard for him not to be, even given the low expectations he should carry for everyone at this point. He started off the game by giving up a hit to Nick Swisher, walking Orlando Cabrera, and then serving up a three-run tater tot to Jim Thome.
Now, giving up homers to Jim Thome is not something one should be all that ashamed of, of course. Even though Big Jim is aging, Loewen is just one of hundreds of pitchers who have been treated to the Thome big fly meal.
He got through six innings and his line awards him with a somewhat generous Quality Start. Loewen's three starts this season:
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | Pitches | Strikes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | SEA | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 83 | 43 |
| 04/10 | @TEX | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 54 |
| 04/16 | CHW | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 109 | 60 |
Loewen turned 24 years old on April 9. He is, simply put, ill-suited for a Major League rotation, even one that is fronting a team that is hell-bent on rebuilding and looking toward the future.
The Orioles, though, as many of you are aware, have little choice but to give Loewen this chance. Not only was he drafted fourth overall out of high school, but he got a foolish contract from a foolish front office, which essentially made him a must-have on the roster at this point.
He's in the rotation not because he's ever earned it, but because the team had precious few chances to tell him no. Had Loewen been a phenom, we'd all be on the gravy train right now. That has never, ever been the case.
All through his minor league career, he's struggled with his command, with the highest mark there being that he was "effectively wild" -- while he walked 5.22 per nine innings in the minors (all but 70 innings spent in the Carolina League and below), he did have a respectable 3.72 ERA.
But did he ever dominate? Save for about 20 innings at Ottawa, no, he did not. Not even close. His K-rate was a damn solid 9.08 per nine, but he was always hit a little harder than you'd want a strikeouts-and-walks guy to be, too.
In short, Adam Loewen has had real problems at every single level of his professional career. He's also had more than a couple of scrapes with the injury report.
In Baltimore, he has failed to pitch deep into games frequently, and even in giving us six innings last night, it took him 109 pitches. Does that really instill confidence in him? Be honest.
He was drafted to become a front line starting pitcher. Though he's still quite young, the problems he has are not the type that go away easily. He is a left-handed Daniel Cabrera in many respects. Pitching coaches are always going to get excited to "fix" the kid, but it's probably a quite futile effort. In the majority of cases, you either have it or you don't. The best Loewen might ever be able to offer is being a back-end starter on teams that just don't have enough guys and aren't going to compete.
Here's a list of pitchers taken after Loewen in the 2002 draft: Zach Greinke, Jeff Francis, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain... let's stop at the first round.
If you want to believe in fairy tales and happy endings and miraculous turnarounds and magical pitching coaches, then by all means, believe that Adam Loewen is going to turn this thing around and become a reliable, quality Major League starter. Like always in these scenarios, I hope you're right. But I find it painful to watch the O's more or less forced to spend time on Loewen when I think it's so clear that he does not have it. If it weren't for his contract, he probably wouldn't be here. He is no more advanced or ready for this than Olson, Liz or Penn are, and they're stuck in Norfolk.
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Disagree
I think he still has a lot of upside, and not just in the nowhere-to-go-but-up kind of way.
If he can ever command his fastball to the point where he can throw strikes and keep the ball down, he’s going to have a lot of success as a major league pitcher. He also has to stay healthy, of course.
This all may seem like a longshot (and it is), but the Orioles entire rebuilding plan revolves around constructing a major league rotation from the farm system. Loewen may be the most likely pitcher in the organization to fit in that future rotation, given that he’s already in the major leagues and getting at least some of those major league hitters out. The Orioles have a lot of pitching talent in the minors, but the majority of those guys will never even make the major leagues.
Bottom line? He’s going to get a lot of chances, he’s going to be frustrating, but he deserves our support. Save the hate for Jay Payton.
by dkdc on Apr 17, 2008 9:37 AM EDT 0 recs
fwiw...
bedard’s age 25 season…
there are definitely some comparisons (lots of walks, high pitch counts), but loewen’s homer tendencies are a bit troubling.
"Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones."
by j.q. higgins on Apr 17, 2008 10:22 AM EDT 0 recs
huh...
where’d my link go?
"Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones."
by j.q. higgins on
Apr 17, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
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here?
"Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones."
by j.q. higgins on
Apr 17, 2008 10:44 AM EDT
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Bedard
Erik Bedard had a 2.68/1.10 line in the minors with a 3.05 BB/9 rate. The two pitchers are just not comparable.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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well...
though minor league numbers don’t seem to have the same sort of predictive authority as major league numbers, loewen certainly didn’t have near the type of success in minor league ball that bedard did, sure.
i’m just saying, a lot of bedard’s age 25 season in the majors is downright fugly. high pitch counts for few innings, lots of walks…i’m not ready to put a bullet in loewen, but the motherfucker really needs to get it together.
"Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones."
by j.q. higgins on
Apr 17, 2008 3:48 PM EDT
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Unfortunately
As I’ve said, if Cabrera is the new Ponson, then I’m afraid Loewen is the new Cabrera.
I wonder if any thought is being given to putting Albers into the rotation. Of the current 5 starters, only Guthrie is even around the league average in ERA. The others are over 5.
"Killing a Yankee fan -- is that illegal in this state?" -- Homicide Life on the Street
by BirdFanLA on Apr 17, 2008 11:52 AM EDT 0 recs
I agree
about Albers. Why not give him a shot? He was a well-regarded prospect coming up with Houston, and seems to be at least capable of throwing strikes.
I understand that Loewen can’t be sent down to AAA, but swap him with Albers and let Loewen work on his command in some non-pressure situations.
And how much longer will they stick with Trachsel? I realize that you want to give the young guys some time in the minors, but at this point it might be time for Olson and Penn to get some major-league seasoning. Neither has much left to prove at AAA.
by nittany lion on
Apr 17, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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Loewen
I still like Loewen. His minor league track isn’t dominate as SC pointed out. But I believe he was younger than the competition and he seemed to get better as he progressed through the minors His age 22 season was a nice step and then he did fine last year in a whole month’s worth of starts (despite the troubling number of walks which I know suggests his success wouldn’t last). This year he has 3 starts. I’m not ready to give up on him yet based on 3 starts. He earned his way up to the majors. I don’t see how sending him to the minors will help. He has nothing to learn by facing AAA hitters. He can work on his command at the ML league. Maybe if the O’s want him to drastically alter his mechanics, then yes, send him to the minors. Right now, let’s keep him up here and give him a shot. After all, he did just come off of surgery. After this season, I’ll have a stronger opinion of him.
And here’s a little tidbit from John Sickels.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/3/12/185347/205
“The top name on Loewen’s Sim Score list is Al Leiter, who also ranks highly (fifth) on his PECOTA comp list. The Lieter comp makes a lot of sense to me: injury and command problems, occasionally overpowering, a better-than-average pitcher overall with flashes of brilliance but never quite living up to his complete potential. That’s’ what I expect out of Loewen at this point, assuming he doesn’t completely fall apart.”
Al Leiter sounds great to me.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Apr 17, 2008 1:00 PM EDT 0 recs
Al Leiter would be awesome
I also think it’s very wishful thinking. And Leiter didn’t become any good on a consistent basis until he was about 30 years old. You got seven years of this in you? I don’t.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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Leiter
In looking at his page at baseball reference, he didn’t start playing regularly until his age 27 season (for whatever reason, he didn’t play much al all during his age 24, 25, 26 seasons and before barely played before that). His early seasons were pretty good as a starter. His age 28 and 31 seasons weren’t great, but otherwise, he started off fine (his age 28 season was also his first full season as a starter). If Loewen’s first six seasons look like Leiter’s first six seasons (once Leiter starting playing regularly), that’s fine by me. In his first full season as a starter, Leiter posted a ERA+ of 95. I could see Loewen post a low 90s ERA+ this season. Then Leiter posted an ERA+ of 130, 140, 93, 170, 105, 139. So he had another dud season surrounded by 5 good ones. If Loewen does something close to this, I’m happy.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leiteal01.shtml
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on
Apr 17, 2008 3:05 PM EDT
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The Loewen/Leiter comparison is hopeful (and very, very optimistic). Minor league #s:
Leiter: 4.15/1.48 (692 IP)
Loewen: 3.72/1.44 (329.2 IP)
There’s a gross difference in innings pitched on the farm, but the two match up well there.
If he turns into Al Leiter, I’ll be thrilled. If he’s a poor man’s Al Leiter, I’ll be quite content. But I don’t think it happens. There’s too much (command problems, hittability because of command problems forcing him to leave meat over the plate, injuries) that work against Loewen.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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we agree there
And I don’t want people to get the impression that I dislike Adam Loewen. I just think he’s unfit for his position, and that’s more the fault of his contract than anything else, really. In what world would this guy be in the Major League rotation right now if it wasn’t necessary? I know someone has to be, but that someone could be Penn or Liz or Olson, you know? Or someone else, even. Loewen never got to really learn the game at the minor league level, which is quite important for high school draftees.
I stand by the fact that he was a crap draft choice, especially when you throw in the bad contract he was given.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
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Loewen
“In what world would this guy be in the Major League rotation right now if it wasn’t necessary?”
The O’s don’t have a clear cut candidate who’s better.
“I know someone has to be, but that someone could be Penn or Liz or Olson, you know?”
I think part of the reason why Loewen is up rather than these guys, besides contract issues, is that, for better or worse, he’s tall, left-handed, and has better stuff than these guys (and consequently, his upside is certainly higher than Olson and probably a touch higher than Penn or Liz, who’s 24 I believe). I would still rather have Loewen in the rotation than those three guys, although my preference for Loewen over Penn, Liz, and Olson is minimum. Penn and Liz will eventually get their shots (Olson is going to get buried). Loewen needs to take his lumps in the big leauges. Then we’ll have Al Leiter baby!!!
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Apr 17, 2008 4:34 PM EDT 0 recs
uhh.. no
they Honestly should get rid of him he is not going to go anywere. he always gets hammered and there is no leo mazzone to save him like there was for bedard. he is injured most of the time and should just go to the minors or just be traded for more young talent.
by oriolesfan456 on Apr 17, 2008 5:13 PM EDT 0 recs
he may continue to suck, but at least give the dude a chance!
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on
Apr 17, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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to be fair
Bedard always credited Kris Benson for his improvements more than he credited anyone else.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 10:31 PM EDT
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Don't disagree with you, SC,
But you could say the same about all but about four teams in the major leagues. That is, in regards to pitchers who have no place in a major league starting rotation. Just go through the rosters and look at some of the rag-arms who are starting in the Majors. This is not to defend Loewen, who frustrates me almost as often as Cabrera does. However, if any of the other 8 players in the lineup had gotten a timely hit, and put the Os back in the game (I’m talking to you Mel Mora!), then we may be talking differently about Loewen’s performance, saying things like, “he hung in there, gave his team a chance to win,” etc. This will be one of those yin-yang years. When the pitching is OK, the hitting will disappear and when the hitting is on, then pitchers won’t be able to get the other team out. Strap yourselves in, fellow Bird watchers. It’s going to be a rollercoaster through Birdland this year. (At least we didn’t head to the bottom as quickly as the Senators, er, Expos, er, Nationals).
by Lothar on Apr 17, 2008 5:41 PM EDT 0 recs
Loewen versus Cabs
This is not to defend Loewen, who frustrates me almost as often as Cabrera does.
Cabs frustrates me MUCH more because he never realized his upside after many years of below average performance. Loewen has spent two month in the majors. I’m willing to cut him more slack.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on
Apr 17, 2008 5:57 PM EDT
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Oops
But he’s still hasn’t even pitched 200 major league innings. He’s still a newbie in my book.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on
Apr 18, 2008 12:39 AM EDT
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No, I wouldn’t be talking differently about it. He still walks too many guys and throws too many pitches. Show me a consistently good starting pitcher with his walk rate.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 10:33 PM EDT
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re:
Zambrano walks a bunch, but I think we can all agree that he’s the exception and not the rule in any way.
by SC on
Apr 17, 2008 10:34 PM EDT
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