Amateur Draft Links and Discussion

by silverstadium on Apr 22, 2008 11:52 AM EDT Comment 19 comments

It's nearly time to replenish the system again! Let's look at what our candidates are for the first round.

Here's a Baseball America preview from a couple months ago. It seems that it's a 4 player draft (2 pitchers and 2 hitters) with a decent drop-off after that. We have the 4th pick so we're bound to be able to choose one of the 4.

The top 4 are:

1) Pedro Alvarez, slugging 3B from Vanderbilt. Boras client.

2) Tim Beckham, SS. Best high school prospect.

3) Aaron Crow, RHP from Missouri. Probably the best pitcher. May have mechanical problems, though.

4) Brian Matusz, LHP from San Diego. Some like him better than Crow. Seen as more durable.

T his is an interesting Saber-Scouting blog post where two guys mock the upcoming draft. One guy likes Alvarez dropping to us. The other thinks the Pirates will nab him, leaving us with Matusz.

There's a good question about MacPhail and slots buried in this Q & A. It may alleviate some of our concerns about the Weiters pick coming before MacPhail was hired. I should note that there are kind words in both this article and the mock draft one for Jim Jordan.

So what do ya'll think? Do we go with whoever of the top 4 fall to us? What if both hitters are taken? There's been plenty of talk about our system having a dearth of position players and there are some good hitters that are in the next tier of draftees.

I'm hoping Alvarez, who most say is the best prospect, falls to us and MacPhail doesn't hesitate to nab him. I'd take any of the top 4 besides Crow, however. Mechanical problems can be solved, but why take such a risk with the top pick? If he's the only one left of the 4, let's take one of the slugging 1Bs that the Saber-Scouting guys like.

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Oh, by the way...

Is it me or does the generic image SB Nation assigns to those of us who haven’t uploaded our own look an awful lot like Barack Obama?

by silverstadium on Apr 22, 2008 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just the ears...

"I win! I think I'm better at chess than you, Dad." - My 7 year old, after he beat me for the first (and not last) time.

by duck on Apr 22, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beckham

There is another middle infielder named Beckham, first name Gordon, that will likely be a top ten pick.

Assuming Alvarez is gone (if the Pirates pass on him, I think we should jump at him) then I believe we should draft Gordon Beckham from the University of Georgia, even if Tim Beckham is available.

Although Gordon does not have the upside of Tim, Gordon could have a Troy Tulowitzki, Khalil Greene or Ryan Zimmerman type impact. Beckham could perhaps even be a Ryan Braun type player.

The word on Gordon defensively is that he will stick at shortstop in the big leagues, while Tim likely will move to outfield.

Gordon fits a position of need, will move quickly through the minors and be able to help us contend much sooner than Tim Beckham or Brian Matusz.

If Pedro Alvarez is gone, we have to go with Gordon Beckham. I dont think we need to spend our top pick on a pitcher when our system is currently glutted with them, and I don’t think we should take the risk on a high school talent like Tim Beckham, when we could get a much surer thing in Gordon.

by nittany lion on Apr 22, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Jim Callis is pretty adamant that Tim Beckham will stick at short

by nittany lion on Apr 22, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

drafting for need

Is a big no-no in the draft. It appears as though the best strategy is to pick the best available player and worry about filling needs in other ways (trade/free agency).

Also being a high school player does not necessarily mean that Tim Beckham is a higher risk (although it looks like Tampa Bay will take him), picking the best available player appears to be the least risky option.

I really want Alvarez, but it doesn’t look like he will fall past Pittsburgh. If I were a betting man I would put money that it will be a pitcher from the “fab four” that will fall to us in the draft, and we need to take him in my opinion.

by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 22, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Generally, you go for the best player and don’t draft for need. But I think it’s evident that pitchers are slightly riskier than hitters. It’s okay in my book to pass over a pitcher for the best hitter available.

What’s not okay is to draft the best shortstop, say, just because your organization is thin in that position even though there are ten better prospects in front of him.

That said, even though I would take a hitter, I won’t mind if we end up with the riskiest of the top 4. I’m just a tad more risk averse than most.

by silverstadium on Apr 23, 2008 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm alright with that

Pitchers worry me, a lot. That being said, sometimes you just gotta take a chance on a guy who could become an ace. But to avoid taking a pitcher (especially one with mechanical problems like Crow) is completely legit.

by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 23, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I like Gordon Beckham much better than Tim. Gordon is putting up huge numbers at a higher level and has had success with a wooden bat.

Here’s my top 3 I’d like to see the O’s take:
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Smoak (any reason why his stock has fallen?)
3. Gordon Beckham

I’d like to see a positional prospect since the system has very few.

by edsachs1 on Apr 22, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smoak

One take on why Smoak’s stock is falling:

“Smoak has gotten some mixed reviews, much of that being a function of a tough summer with wood bats for Team USA, and some being because scouts were watching him so much it was tough not to pick him apart.”
- taken from:
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/04/11/draftbuzz1-2/

I’m not as hot on Gordon Beckham b/c Keith Law said he has a “long two-part swing” and his cape cod league was a hitters park, and thats when his power was most evident.

I want to see one of the “fab four” picked by us, but if its Smoak I wont mind either.

by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 22, 2008 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

draft

I heard from one of the ESPN chats, probably Law but can’t remember, that Pirates are seriously considering Alvarez. From XM radio, I heard his contract demands are ridiculously high which may scare off the Pirates. This would have definitely scared off the Littlefield administration but Pirates are now trying to draft the best player regardless of price. It’s conceiveable Alvarez will fall to us, but I have a feeling they’ll take him especially after the beating they’ve taken after passing on Wieters (Thanks Dave Littlefield!).

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Apr 22, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts

My ranking, though this and a buck fifty should buy you a cup of coffee:

Alvarez, T. Beckham, Matusz, Crow

My hope is one of the first two. It kind of sucks that the 3 teams in front of us seem to have a clue now. Conversely, the experts say that this is a four player draft, so we’re lucky we didn’t fuck up and win a few meaningless games last year (oh, Mark Teixeira…).

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Apr 22, 2008 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The last time we picked fourth...

...we got Adam Loewen. Who the fuck is Christopher Gruler?

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Apr 22, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Christopher Gruler

It appears that he was the Reds pick right before Loewen, he was given a record bonus for them, but was released recently after only accumulating 100 minor league innings because of constant injuries.

by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 23, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

man, let's give Adam a bit more time

afterall, at one point, Prior over Mauer looked incredibly stupid.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Apr 23, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I’m all about giving more time to guys that are relatively young and talented, especially on a team like this one. I think we may as well give Adam, Danny more shots, and i would have loved to give Ronny Cedeno or Jose Lopez a shot if we got them via trade.

Also remember that Adam only has one real season under his belt, and he is recovering from injury right now to boot.

by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 24, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs