Over .500 at the 1/4 mark

by zknower on May 16, 2008 1:26 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

I realized today that regardless of what happens in DC tomorrow, the Orioles will be over the .500 mark at the season's 1/4 mark.

Yes, I know, it won't last, unless we play KC and Seattle for the rest of the year.

But after sweeping Boston in a two-game series despite our inept offense, I will say this: this year is shaping up to be the first year in a long time where the AL East is not eminently predictable.

The Rays are flying, Papi is hurting, the Yankees look stoned, and the Blue Jays are mired in the cellar.

I have no idea how it will all turn out. But it sure is a breath of fresh air to actually know that the outcome will be in doubt for good while yet.

Also, at 20-19, with our pitchers going the way they are, I don't think it's really likely we lose 100 games this year. Christ, we'd have to go 42-81 the rest of the way for that to happen. We may be rebuilding, but we're not that bad.

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Aside from the question of whether or not Tampa Bay can really make it a 3-team race in the end, or whether or not the Blue Jays will end up finishing dead last, I don’t really think the outcome in the AL East is in much doubt.

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

by oriolez on May 16, 2008 8:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe in the Rays

I think they take second this year.

"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones

by Stacey on May 16, 2008 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe in the Orioles...

I think they take fourth this year.. again.

Improving the ballclub: Not one of Peter Angelos' concerns.-SC Wed Jan 30, 2008

by dayzd toe on May 16, 2008 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe in the Jays sucking

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 16, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with those standings

The Rays will be a serious threat next year, though.

by dkdc on May 16, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only thing that's not in doubt is the red sox finishing first

the rest of the standings are obviously subject to a lot of debate. see below.

by zknower on May 16, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know we've seen the Yanks falter early before

But I really don’t see them as that much of a threat this year. You look at their rotation and are you impressed? Look at their offense, is it really anywhere near as intimidating as it did in years past?

Before when they started poorly; their roster still looked solid. Now it looks kind of sad. Jeter is still a very good hitter, ARod is one of the best in the league and will get healthy, Rivera is still dominant and Wang has shown that he can get guys out without the K’s. But past that, who really is exceptional? To me, they just look old and I think Tampa and/or Toronto will finish above them.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on May 16, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know we're pretty much all for the rays beating on the bosux/skankees

but does anyone else think it sucks that they decided to get good at the same time we finally started to rebuild? 4 or 5 team races are exciting, but i would have liked to see the O’s with a little less competition for a year or two (once they actually get contention-good that is)

"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver

by daveh873 on May 16, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rays

I think the Rays look like the kind of team that will be good early and falter late. I think they’re taking advantage of their opportunities, but there are so many potential fall outs for them. Clearly their starting pitching has been great so far, but Kazmir is an injury risk, and Garza can be streaky. Their bullpen is definitely better than last season, but I am not that optimistic that Al Reyes and Troy Percival have what it takes if they’re in the race late in the season.

We could easily see their young line up suffer the classic fate of young unknown hitters: The more they play, the more carefully they’re pitched and the less they perform. This team is much better than ever before, and you can call be crazy, but if the O’s rebuilding plan works, I can see us being just as good as the Rays in 2010.

On a side note, living in NY I watch a lot of Yankees games, and I have to say that they just look like a defeated bunch of losers. It used to be that I would not count them out until the final out. But now, down 4-0 early in a game, I feel very certain they’re done for. It’s a strange and wonderful feeling.

by brooklynlovesorioles on May 16, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Part of my belief that the Rays will finish in 2nd place has to do with the fact that the Yankees look totally cooked and the Blue Jays can’t seem to hit their way out of a wet paper bag.

by Stacey on May 16, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

completely agree

i live in northern NJ and i watch a TON of yanks games. not the best bunch of ballplayers right now

"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver

by daveh873 on May 16, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they're old!

And many of them just aren’t very good! And the manager’s a dingleberry! And the owner’s a twit!

I mean, they’re a fine team, they can win a lot of games in a row at any time and get it together starting any day, but they’re no playoff lock. This has really been the case the last couple of years. Eventually they’re not going to Put It All Together like they’ve been able to do.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 16, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yanks usually start off slow before going ape shit in the summer

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 16, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Birds usually start off "surprising" and then take a shit in their pants

I mean if no one else wants to notice that this isn’t all that unusual, then great, but hey.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 16, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From misterirrelevant.com

It’s a DC blog, but makes a good point…

Baltimore is 21-19, and all is right in Birdland, but check out the records for this team through 40 games (and then through May) over the past five seasons:
‘07: 18-22 (27-27)
‘06: 18-22 (25-28)
‘05: 26-14 (31-20) (Did this really happen?)
‘04: 20-20 (24-23)
‘03: 18-22 (27-27)
That’s a cumulative winning percentage of .500 (and .517), with the worst mark being .450 (and .472). Now, let’s look at how each of these seasons ended, shall we?

‘07: 69-93
‘06: 70-92
‘05: 74-88
‘04: 78-84 (Nice!)
‘03: 71-91
That’s a cumulative, um, winning percentage of .447 overall and .414 from June through October.

So the O’s are doing what they’ve BEEN doing in the early part of the year.

The question becomes, can they KEEP doing into during the summer?

"We're going to play all 27 outs. If you can beat us for all 27, then we'll tip our hats. But we're going to grind out every at-bat." - Brian Roberts

by duck on May 16, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's not really a good point

comparing the ‘08 O’s to the ‘03 O’s is not even comparing apples to oranges…more like apples to …. grapefruit.

i mean, apart from brian roberts and melmo, what players on the team now were starting then? this is one of thsoe things where someone says, “look at the stats for the last five years”, and it’s almost completely irrelevant.

don’t get me wrong, i’m not arguing they’ll keep this up all summer. but if and when they fade, it will have nothing to do with palmeiro being suspended, ponson sucking eggs, boneheaded decisions by mazilli or benson going on the DL.

it will have to be about THIS year’s crop of guys fading under THIS year’s manager.

by zknower on May 16, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So tell me

why we’re 12-0 against the Royals the last few years. Players changed, yet the results remain constant. Same thing with interleague play – the players have changed a lot in the last 10 years, the results have not – the O’s have teh worst record in the AL against the NL.

I have no idea why the O’s tank in June EVERY YEAR or the O’s can’t consistently beat NL teams. I just know the numbers are there that show a consistent trend. Doesn’t mean they’re related, but it is sure a weird coincidence, if nothing else.

"We're going to play all 27 outs. If you can beat us for all 27, then we'll tip our hats. But we're going to grind out every at-bat." - Brian Roberts

by duck on May 16, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

c'mon duck

you’re being a little selective. sure we’re 12-0 or whatever against the royals. but look, three or four years ago, in the middle of that run, we played the red sox even for a year. then the following year, we didn’t.

the o’s have been tanking most years because they were following a losing strategy. this year, at the very least, the strategy is different.

to put it another way: it’s fine to compare the ‘06 orioles with the ‘04 orioles, because in terms of personnel AND strategy, those teams were similar. but the ‘08 orioles don’t look like either one of those teams.

by zknower on May 16, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

depth

i think it’s a question of depth. in most of the last 5 years, when we have a starter get hurt, we replace him with someone who doesn’t belong. this year garrett olson steps in and pitches well. i don’t know what happens if someone else gets hurt, but it does seem like we have a little more depth in the system now.

also, in previous years were were getting 5 innings out of the starters and the bullpen just got worn out. by the second half of the season, all of our relievers were gassed and, again, we didn’t have anyone waiting in the minors to take the ball.

anyway, health is going to matter because most of our talent is still in the low minors, but it doesn’t look as bad as it used to if someone hits the DL.

by joet on May 18, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you've hit it on the head

We’re staying in games because our starters are staying in games.

One of our relievers – Aquino – was so God awful, we DFA’d him. ChadBrad and JW, B! aren’t doing what they’ve done last year.

But we’re not as reliant on our bullpen because our starters are getting to the 7th, it seems. Maybe the numbers don’t back me up – wouldn’t be the first time – but when your bullpen ERA is down almost 1.4 runs (which it is), some of that has to be due to fewer times they’ve come in where it’s highly possible to lose the game with a bad pitch or two.

So, if the bullpen can stay healthy and effective, AND we can keep getting good starts from our starters, just think what will happen when we, you know, actually start HITTING again.

"We're going to play all 27 outs. If you can beat us for all 27, then we'll tip our hats. But we're going to grind out every at-bat." - Brian Roberts

by duck on May 18, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bradford

I agree on Walker, but Bradford seems to be doing what he did last year or better. His ERA is down a half run, his WHIP is down slightly, and his walk rate is about the same. And I’m kind of surprised, but he really hasn’t been used significantly less this year. He was used just about every other game this year (78 of 162) and it’s just a little less this year (19 of 43).

I agree that you can’t overwork the pen and expect success; but one of the reasons that the pen seemed so overworked was that they were essentially 3 guys in the first half of last year that you had any faith in at all; so I could be wrong, but they seemed to pitch nearly every game that was remotely close. And none of them were 1+ inning kind of guys.

We were 4th last year in innings for the pen. Right now, we are still 4th in bullpen innings; but the ERA has gone from 5.71 to 3.43.

Obviously, there is a lot that can still go wrong; but this pen really is better; not just worked less.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on May 19, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bow to your statistical superiority

I would never had guessed the IP were roughly the same as last year. That is truly surprising. Maybe SC was right along – you don’t spend a LOT of $$$ on relievers, you find cheap one who will do.

And apparently, that’s what the O’s have done.

"We're going to play all 27 outs. If you can beat us for all 27, then we'll tip our hats. But we're going to grind out every at-bat." - Brian Roberts

by duck on May 19, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs