What would Cabrera bring in July?

Prolly a lot of walks

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on May 8, 2008 5:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I think its too early to tell

But, If he keeps his ERA around 4, his walks at a decent level and bring his strikeouts up a bit (which are some big if’s), then i think he could bring in a grade B prospect or two. Obviously if he returns to last year’s form then he’s worthless.

Maybe if he gets really hot and brings the ERA down more we could find a foolish GM to give us more but i don’t see it happening with this being his walk year.

by Reddrummer9187 on May 8, 2008 5:17 PM EDT 0 recs

It's not his walk year

He’s under control for 2009 and 2010 also.

If Cabrera can stay hot for the next couple months (yes that’s a very big ‘if’), I think he’ll be worth a ton at the deadline. Look what Steve Traschel brought.

This could be a huge boost to the rebuilding project, although I still think the most likely outcome is that he’ll stink it up by July and no one will want him.

by dkdc on May 8, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

given cabrera's history...

moreso than his potential.. I think that any general manager that gives up a good prospect for him puts himself in danger. I would think that Cabrera would only bring something good if he were to repeat his performance over a couple of years.

Less than thrilled with the idea of more B-level prospects.

Speaking of which, check out the latest mlb.com article (sorry I’m too lazy to grab the link)... talks about our approach to the draft this year.

by Y Not on May 8, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

“I think he’ll be worth a ton at the deadline. Look what Steve Traschel brought.”

I wouldn’t say a ton given his track record, but I think he could bring two good young players. Probably something like a decent young ML with a little upside (somethng like Ryan Church’s value in the offseason) and another B, B- prospect. I’m a little leary of pointing to the Traschel trade as a reference point because I think it was a bit of abberration in stupidity by the Cubs. Pitchers are definitely in high demand in July, but I doubt we could get someone like Carlos Truinfel and a B- prospect for Cabs, but that would be ideal.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 8, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

whoops

It looks like was wrong, i don’t know what gave me the idea that its his walk year. Well if we have him until 2010 that increases his value a bit.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080507&content_id=2657706&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal

There is the link that Y not was talking about

by Reddrummer9187 on May 8, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

If Cabrera keeps pitching like he has...

...and I stress IF, IF, IF!!!!....

but if he does keep pitching like this, into July….geez, that’s not a choice that I would want to have to make. I can see the argument that says, yes, sell high, his track record says that he can’t do this consistently.

I can also see the argument that says…this guy turned it around, he can be dominant, why do we trade that when we can instead trade others who have less experience? I dunno. I lean towards “sell high,” especially if we get something resembling a solid MLB shortstop or 2B (or, god forbid, 1B, something we haven’t had since 1998). But I have doubts.

"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008

Adam Jones is the tits.

by KenDixonFanClub on May 9, 2008 12:07 AM EDT 0 recs

You don't trade him

If he keeps this up into July. He’s what, 26? That would be stupid.

by Pack Man on May 9, 2008 12:23 AM EDT 0 recs

Look at the Orioles’ farm system though. While there’s no guarantee that any of them will work out (we basically have a system full of Cabreras), we’ve got a bunch of promising pitching prospects - just off the top of my head I can say Penn, Olson, Liz, Albers, Patton (sure, why not?), Arieta - but not much in the way of bats.

We’ve got Weiters, maybe Rowell, maybe Reimold, and…..

I’m thrilled to see D-Cab turning it around, but if the O’s can flip him for a good young hitter or two, that’s probably worth more to us than he is as a pitcher given the shape of our system right now.

Plus, it wouldn’t surprise me to see D-Cab fall of a cliff again in the second half—I hope I’m wrong about that whether it’s here or elsewhere.

Why the Hell Not?

by BrianS on May 9, 2008 8:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

No lament at all

They can dangle all they want. If Danny boy is pitching like this in July he’s a keeper, at least for another year.

End of July means he’s done this for 3+ months, and ONLY if you get a GREAT offer do you trade him. He’s still young, he;s under control for two more years, he eats innings, and right now, he’s pitching like a solid #2/#3. Why wouldn’t you build around him? You’re not going to get any “sure-fire” prospects for him (and besides there is no such thing). I don’t give a crap what people think about the last two years. They overlook the two years before that, when Danny came up and was decent.

In other words, if Danny is truly pitching like this in July, it simply cements the notion that Mazzone screwed him up something fierce.

So unless the offer is something stunning (and I have faith in MacPhail to make the call, he has been pretty good so far) you hang onto danny at least until the offseason.

by zknower on May 9, 2008 9:32 AM EDT 0 recs

Right now, DCabs is one of the positives and he’s still under the O’s control until 2010. If he stays anywhere near where he’s been this season, MacPhail will have a high asking price. If he can garner a good infielder (just about any base assuming Roberts is gone), I think the O’s make the trade. Seems to me the O’s only rush if they think this recent Cabrera is a fluke.

The O’s have to decide which arms to trade. I’d think Olson, Johnson, and Arrieta are probably not going to be moved. Someone else is going to be moved for a position player.

by drj on May 9, 2008 10:31 AM EDT 0 recs

What to do?

If Cabs is pitching like this through July, sure, listen to offers, but you’ve got to dangle something pretty hefty to give up a 26 year old that is performing like that and is under contract for 2 and a half more seasons.

Now, if he give us his usual flashes of brilliance interspersed with 8 walks in 6 IP, then I’d be much more willing to deal him. Of course, we’d get less in return.

Something to consider though is that Cabs has seemingly “put it together” before by pitching great for longer than one or two starts at a time. Here are two months of his career:

IP        BB       K       ERA   WHIP   BAA
July 2005   32.0 	20 	34 	2.53 	1.25 	.177 	
Aug 2006   32.0        15      34      3.38    1.34 	.233

If Danny has K:BB ratios that are along the lines of 8/06 from now until the deadline, I would probably err on keeping him. He’s never kept it up for that long before.

by silverstadium on May 9, 2008 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs

Trading a pitcher for an infielder wouldn’t be a bad idea, especially if Brian Roberts also goes. I think I’d rather trade Guthrie or Burres than the current incarnation of Danny, but that would change if bad Danny shows up again. Also, it would be great if some team would take Lowen off our hands.

TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC

by spike2131 on May 9, 2008 10:48 AM EDT 0 recs

yeah, it'd be great...

until he turns into the NY Mets version of John Maine… for someone other than us.

Improving the ballclub: Not one of Peter Angelos' concerns.-SC Wed Jan 30, 2008

by dayzd toe on May 9, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

yeah, hate to say it...

i go back on forth on this, but if danny can keep it together, that sort of councils additional patience w/ loewen.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 9, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

however...

the big difference between Danny and Loewen is that Danny never picked up a baseball until he was 17 and when he was signed he couldn’t catch a flyball.

Improving the ballclub: Not one of Peter Angelos' concerns.-SC Wed Jan 30, 2008

by dayzd toe on May 9, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

so the legend goes.

Improving the ballclub: Not one of Peter Angelos' concerns.-SC Wed Jan 30, 2008

by dayzd toe on May 9, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

The big differnce...

Is that I’ve always seen potential in Cabrerra, although I had recently come to the conclusion that it would never be reached. He has been showing signs lately that I might be wrong about that.

But I’ve never seen potential in Lowen. All I’ve ever seen is Lowen either a) sucking or b) getting hurt.

TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC

by spike2131 on May 9, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

if we are to trade a pitcher for an infielder...

Which I think should happen at some point, we need to pick somebody whose value is high like Liz and maybe throw in a Brandon Snyder to spice things up for them.

If we can get very good production from Cabrera we should keep him, he has been relatively durable and pitchers of his potential don’t grow on trees.

by Reddrummer9187 on May 9, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Liz’s value is high as a prospect, but teams at the trade deadline don’t want prospects. They want players who are producing now. Which is why, if Burres and Guthrie continue to do well, they would bring pretty good returns from a contending team looking to shore up the back of its rotation. Like Traxel did with the Cubs, or Ponson with the Giants a few years ago. Those trades didn’t exactly work out for the other teams, but they did buy us a few prospects. If we could trade Burres for a good AAA infielder, I would be very interested in that.

TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC

by spike2131 on May 9, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah...

burres, i think, is the best candidate to move in this sort of scenario.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 9, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yup

Especially now that Jamie Walker isn’t going anywhere….

TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC

by spike2131 on May 9, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

i wouldn't say that...

come the trade time, normally sane gm’s go gay for “proven” relievers.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 9, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe...

But it would help if he stops converting so many blown save opportunities.

TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC TRAGIC

by spike2131 on May 9, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

sellers

Will be looking to add prospects, and i think you could get them listening on a prospects for prospects deal. Its a bit unusual but i think it would be good, although if that were to happen its more likely over the off season.

If Burres could yield any potential impact players I would pounce on that, even if it wasn’t a middle infielder.

by Reddrummer9187 on May 9, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

aka drj's folly

by Jonny Pops on May 9, 2008 12:07 PM EDT 0 recs

Guilty. I spent almost two years trying to never miss a Danny start.

Even chose to go to his starts when I was in town. Then we split ways in 2007.

by drj on May 9, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

I just don't see why you would trade a talented young player

The whole point of rebuilding is to get these kind of guys right? I know we have less hitters than pitchers, but still, I don’t want to sacrifice a proven young arm for much of anything.

Obviously, he is not proven yet, I’m just saying if he really keeps this up I’m sold.

by Pack Man on May 9, 2008 12:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Just so we have a sense of what we're talking about

Danny’s averages per start, based on 8 starts this year:

6-2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 K, 3 BB. His ERA is now 3.54. His WHIP is now 1.21.

Barring injury, Danny will make about 11 starts leading up to the All-Star break. If he continues these numbers, there will be plenty of offers. BUT, if he continues these numbers, I really don’t think we’ll be discussing trading him, unless we’re getting a set of 2-3 blue-chip position propsects and a pitcher in return.

Also, can a few people recommend this diary? I think it would be good to keep it in view for a few weeks….

by zknower on May 9, 2008 12:41 PM EDT 0 recs

one thing to keep in mind...

juts looking at some numbers over at BP. dc is 11th in the AL in vorp for a pitcher, BUT his BABIP is .221 which suggests he’s due for a serious correction (remember, .290 is considered the norm). of other vorp leaders, he had the highest walk rate and highest hr rate and among the lower k rates. this included last night’s start.

of course, the first two starts and probably the last start have a big impact on the k, bb and hr rate, but it bears mentioning nonetheless.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 9, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

i wonder what the numbers would be like

if you threw out the two best and worst.

those would be last night’s start and the 7BB start from 3-4 weeks ago. i just don’t have time to run the #s right now.

by zknower on May 9, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

DCab's luck

I think this is the key; DCab has been more lucky then good and thusly should be traded assuming he keep up the smoke and mirrors until July. Not sure what we’d get for him though…given his talent but also his track record, it’s got to be tough to figure…

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on May 12, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Groundball rate

Has improved, so it might not be all luck.

by Reddrummer9187 on May 12, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

fwiw

FWIW, I saw this article on another site that was pretty interesting vis a vis Cabrera’s sudden increase in effectiveness.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on May 12, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

The more I see articles like this...

The more I begin equating a lot of baseball fans to the comic book guy from the Simpsons.

“Obviously Superman can defeat Spiderman in a faceoff. Superman usually lands 88% of his punches with an average total power rating of approximately 98%. Surely, Spiderman can counter most of this accuracy by using his spidey sense, which has a 90% effectiveness rate. However, the velocity and frequency of Superman’s punches statistically signify that he will eventually land a few powerful ones, which will reduce Spidey’s life force by approximately 40% per. In conclusion, I’m unemployed, these statistics are ultimately meaningless, and my mom is yelling for me to clean the dishes.”

by Y Not on May 12, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up 1 recs

We have a winner

and a candidate for cross-posting over to yuri’s FanPost.

"Terrible what passes for a ninja these days..." -Pops Racer

by duck on May 12, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Worst analogy ever.

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on May 12, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah I hate learning

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 13, 2008 4:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

numbers are scary.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 13, 2008 10:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

numbers are magical shit. not to be trusted.

by drj on May 13, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

whatever.

you guys may joke, but look who else supports numbers:

monsters.

by Y Not on May 14, 2008 8:25 AM EDT up 1 recs

by the way...

the answer is fries.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 13, 2008 10:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

I thought the answer was Superman

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 13, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll throw my lot in with Billy Ripken when it comes to Cabrera

Billy says it and I agree.I wouldn’t give up on Daniel from now till his 33rd birthday.And no team is going to offer The O’s any young talent to match Daniel.Daniel got a very late start playing baseball less we forget and I believe that within the remainder of this season and next it will click nad stick, then he will be what we hoped.

by fourfingerwoo on May 11, 2008 11:30 AM EDT 0 recs

name?

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 13, 2008 4:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

sometimes you scare me SC

by zknower on May 13, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

seriously

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on May 13, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 13, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

y'know...

to be the man, you’ve got to BEAT the man.

ronnie's a dillweed.

by j.q. higgins on May 13, 2008 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

you aren't ready

for those BIG TITTY women…. you like those women in the training bras! WOOO WOOO

by Birdland in NC on May 14, 2008 8:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

from MLB trade rumors

“One scout seems to think Daniel Cabrera has turned the corner and shouldn’t be traded. He’ll become a free agent after the 2010 season and earns $2.875MM this year.”

take that for what its worth

by Reddrummer9187 on May 13, 2008 11:39 AM EDT 0 recs

this is going to be pretty divisive topic

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 13, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hope that scout...

works for an organization that:

-is in contention at the deadline
-is looking for starting pitching
-has a deep minor league system

by dkdc on May 13, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

all of the saber orientated teams will pass on Cabs

His past history of issuing walks will scare them away. Thus you can check off OAK, TOR, BOS, and ARI at the very least. Maybe the White Sox or Reds will have some interest in Cabs. Det’’s starting pitching is struggling.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 13, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

i don't know about that

I look at the Red Sox acquisition of Coco Crisp and the A’s acquisition of Jay Payton and I don’t think they strictly adhere to saber stuff all the time. I think it’s more getting value when possible. The Sox took a gamble on Beckett and they can’t regret it, but imagine if they had Hanley at short right now.

I do think the Yankees will be very desperate come July, especially given the new steinbrenner and the remorse of not getting Johan.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on May 13, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Coco and Jay

“I look at the Red Sox acquisition of Coco Crisp and the A’s acquisition of Jay Payton and I don’t think they strictly adhere to saber stuff all the time.”

I think the RS expected growth from Coco’s bat and the A’s acquired Payton for his defense.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on May 13, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

right

And maybe the Sox would look to get DCab for his innings.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on May 13, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was thinking the same after reading the above article.

I still think DCab will be traded. I guess I’m not a believer. If Danny is going to flame, I just hope MacPhail has the same kind of timing he had with Tejada.

He has to get the K rate up if the BABIP is going to rise.

by drj on May 13, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

listen

If he’s pitching at the deadline like he’s pitching now, Daniel Cabrera is not going ANYWHERE.

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on May 15, 2008 3:06 AM EDT 0 recs

How long can he live by the fastball?

The guys throws about 95% fastballs, with tons of movement. Guys occasionally get get wood on it (the HRs yesterday), but the vast majority of the time they don’t. The red sox announcers were surprised the had no BB going into the 6th (something has changed, he’s a different pitcher than we’ve seen in the past, we’ve seen some real disasters from him in the past, this is a solid performance today, etc.) How long can a guy live on one pitch?

by drj on May 15, 2008 9:01 AM EDT up 0 recs

How long can a guy live on one pitch?

Now.. where’s that guy who criticizes me for my bad analogies?

by Y Not on May 15, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Knuckleballers don't count

Terrible analogy….

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on May 15, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up 0 recs