Revisiting Stacey's "Brutal Four Week Stretch"
On May 13, Stacey let us know the O's were entering a rough patch in the schedule (results in parens):
I was just looking at my handy pocket O's schedule that they hand out when you buy tickets, and the O's face a tough road in the coming month. I'm going to try to maintain my zen attitude throughout, but my faith will certainly be tested. Behold:
- 13-14 May: vs. Boston (2-0, the high point)
- 16-18 May: vs. Washington (2-1, who doesn't beat the Nats?)
- 20-22 May: @ New York (1-2, eff the MFY)
- 23-25 May: @ Tampa Bay (0-3, the Rays don't lose at home)
- 26-28 May: vs. New York (2-1, take THAT evil empire)
- 30 May - 2 June: vs. Boston (0-3 so far)
- 3-5 June: @ Minnesota
- 6-8 June: @ Toronto
- 10-12 June: @ Boston
Except for Toronto and Washington, that's pretty freaking tough. My current outlook on the O's tells me logically that it doesn't matter, but it's going to be hard to watch the carnage. And with 21 of those 27 games against teams in the AL East, well, you know.
So to try to stay positive, here are few things I'll be happy with, regardless of the team's record:
- Continuing awesomeness of Daniel Cabrera
- Starting pitching remaining competent
- Trade value being built up for Huff, Payton, Millar, Bradford, and the like
- Playing good hard games, not making silly mental or fundamental mistakes
the O's are 7-10 in that stretch so far. are the O's living up to what Stacey wanted to see regardless of results? let's take a look:
- Cabrera during the stretch so far: 2-0 in 4 games, 26.2 IP, 3.71 ERA, 8 BBs, 10 Ks.
- SPs remaining "competent"?: Trachsel's been removed, Burres has fallen off the table (4.87 ERA). Guts has had his normal effectiveness, but becoming increasingly frustrated with his support . Olson has been up and down and we just went over D-Cabs.
- Trade Value for Vets: Huff and Millar are doing their best to get traded out of here. unfortunately, their best ain't all that. they've had some pop, but AVE and OBP are dreadful, and OBP is supposed to be Millar's calling card. Jay-Pay has no value to anyone. Bradford has been relatively useful in the right situation. Although giving up Manny's 500th tater on National TV doesn't help his cause. And Razor has been so bad there's no way MacPhail can move him.
- Playing the "right" way?
so there are 10 games remaining in Stacey's original brutal stretch. we had predicitons anywhere from 10-17 (mine) to 15-11 (Y Not). regardless, looks like Stacey was prescient when she told us the schedule for late May-early June wasn't going to be a picnic.
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53 comments
Comments
Hmmm
Two thoughts:
1) 7-10 is a .411 clip. Let’s extend that to the last 10 games of Stacey’s prediction and say that we go 4-6 in those 10 games. Sounds very possible (maybe we go 3-7). We would finish 11-16 for the stretch overall. So basically, in a month of games against some very good teams, we drop five games below .500, or about 1 game under .500 per week. Seems about right for this team. It’s kind of at the bottom of our predictions range, so it would be nice to do a little better over the next few days. But if you look at Stacey’s original thread, I think post people picked a few games under .500, so I guess they’re playing to expectations. These 3 games against Boston have stung.
2) Take heart. We may get a lot of it back. After this “brutal” stretch is over, we get a nice banquet run before the All-Star break:
PIT 3
HOU 3
@ MIL 3
@ CHC 3
@ WAS 3
KC 4
TEX 3
....mmmm, tasty. Then right before the break, 3 away games each at Toronto and Boston. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll generate some padding and momentum on the 7-game homestand against KC and Texas.
by zknower on Jun 2, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
to what
are you referring when you mention “padding?”
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 2, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
schedule
PIT, DC, WAS are “easy” teams. The NL Central teams are good teams, although MIL seems to be in disarray. Tex is a OK team. In comparison to the block of teams we’re playing now, it’s an easy schedule.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jun 2, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait up...
the o’s are playing washington AND DC?
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 2, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, 3 game series against the U dub Huskies. My money is on the Huskies.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jun 2, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
go, you huskies!
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great reference
“So that happened,” has become a regular response for me and my friends.
by Dr Orpheus on Jun 4, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha!
me too.
though, philip seymour hoffman has been a fave since brandt in big lebowski, so we also are fond of deadpanning, “that’s marvelous.”
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 4, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's Mush, you Huskies! And several drinks later, Hush, you Muskies!
Rah Rah Rasputin / Lover of the Russian queen
There was a cat that / Really loved Birds. -- Boney M
by Titov on Jun 11, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is unrelated, but
How does it happen that we play the Red Sox three times in one month? I mean, teams play division rivals six series a year, right? Three home, three away. Why not just play every team once a month?
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 2, 2008 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
because...
much like ronnie, the mlb scheduling guys are collectively one gigantic dillweed.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 2, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah I hate it
Makes video games REALLY tiresome. Fuck, I just got done playing the Blue Jays!
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on Jun 3, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1-0
A good start on the last run of 10 games.
by zknower on Jun 3, 2008 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
9-10 with 8 games left to play
so more than 2/3rds the way through, the o’s are essentially a .500 team. thats not too shabby at all considering the teams over that span.
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
by daveh873 on Jun 4, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
achieving a .500 record
I’m more worried about August and September no matter who we’re playing.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jun 4, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
six games left
In this four week period, and so far our record is 10-11. Here are the pitching matchups this weekend against Toronto:
Burres vs. Marcum
Guthrie vs. Burnett
Liz vs. Halladay
Marcum has been great lately and Burres has been less than stellar.
I’d like the game 2 matchup if the O’s could score some runs for Guts.
I always expect to lose against Halladay.
My prediction for this weekend: 1-2
My hopes:
1) Burres doesn’t totally implode
2) Guthrie and Liz match or exceed their last starts (Guts: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K. Liz: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). I wouldn’t be surprised if Liz isn’t as good, but here’s hoping.
3) O’s batters continue to work the count the way they did in yesterday’s game vs. the Twins.
4) STOP GETTING PICKED OFF AND THROWN OUT TAKING EXTRA BASES, ESPECIALLY IF YOU’RE A FAT ASS, KEVIN MILLAR AND RAMON HERNANDEZ.
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 6, 2008 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
TOR series
Burres vs. Marcum
Guthrie vs. Burnett
Liz vs. Halladay
Well, we’ll probably score about 3-4 runs in the next 3 games. Marcum is pretty damn good. The O’s are Burnett’s bitch. And Halladay is Halladay.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jun 6, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The good news is
Toronto can’t really hit. Actually their offensive stats look a lot like the O’s this year.
Looking ahead to Boston it appears that it’ll be re-matches of the first 3 games last weekend. Except in Fenway.
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
except
teams who can’t hit always seem to find their stroke against the O’s. Most recent example being the Red Sox on the road-They we’re in a really shitty run on the road til they came Baltimore and damn near swept us.
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 6, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm surprised to say this
but I actually have confidence in our pitching sans Traschel. I think Joe Angel said we have the 4th best bullpen ERA in the AL. The Sox have a good hitting team. They didn’t start hitting because our pitching sucked. They started hitting because they’re good hitters.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jun 6, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
O's are good
at breaking slumps, that’s for sure. But there’s a difference between a slumping Red Sox and the just not that good Blue Jays.
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 6, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and also
Looking at Toronto’s stats just now, it appears they are just as clueless on the basepaths as the Orioles. Toronto has 40 SB and 20 CS. Orioles have 42 SB and 19 CS.
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 6, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well this should be a fun series.
We’ll get to see who’s more aggressive… and by aggressive, of course, I mean stupid, inferior, better at giving up outs.
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UPDATE
I’m really kinda psyched.
With three games to go in the original “four-week stretch”, the Orioles are dead even at 12-12.
That’s 12-12 against some of our best competition.
12-12 without clear starters after #s 1-3.
12-12 with fatasses being thrown out on the basepaths everywhere.
We have three games left against Boston (at Fenway), and the stretch is over. Apart from being swept, any result at Fenway is going to make me happy. If we go 1-2, for example, it means we were 1 game under .500 for the whole stretch and that just wouldn’t have happened in years past. Heck, even if we’re swept, I’m still impressed. And if we manage to take 2 of 3 from Boston (and that’s not an irrational thought), then BREAK UP THE O’S!
Give it up for these guys! They’re definitely worth watching this year. Imagine the difference ONE productive position player would make, and it’s hard not to get psyched.
by zknower on Jun 8, 2008 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
THis has been as impressive
as .500 ball can be, I guess. I’m still pleasantly surprised at our pitching staff, today’s Albers’ meltdown aside.
You look at our lineup, and there’s no way we should be at .500 with the AVG we are putting up there.
Just imagine what the record would be if we weren’t intent on giving back 2 outs a game on stupid baserunning…
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on Jun 8, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 outs a game???
more like 2 innings a game.
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 9, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We're not making SIX outs a game
on the base paths. The problem is bad enough as it is.
If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a thousand times – don’t exaggerate.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on Jun 9, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a tiny bit bummed by yesterday's defeat.
The O’s had Halladay. It happens. Now they have to get two of three in Boston to come out above .500. Yeah, I realize I’m being greedy.
by drj on Jun 9, 2008 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
F#CKING ALBERS!!!
Gesundheit.
Rah Rah Rasputin / Lover of the Russian queen
There was a cat that / Really loved Birds. -- Boney M
by Titov on Jun 11, 2008 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to admit
i’m pleasantly surprised at the O’s resiliency during this stretch of games. they are actually playing relevant baseball—for the time being.
now, DFA Trachsel and we may have something.
by Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball on Jun 9, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
traxxie...
give it time. both bierd and loewen are coming back before the end of the month? he’s toast sooner or later.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 9, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The O's
have pleasantly surprised me with how well they’ve kept playing this year, given that all the projections seemed to have them going 60-102. They’d have to go 29-71 to do that now-Cleveland Spider territory-and that just isn’t happening. Not even slightly.
So after the Sox series, you guys get home sets versus the Astros (Tejada’s REVENGE!) and the Pirates, which should help for sure. The Cubs and Brewers will be toughed, but then there’s another NL team and the Royals in the mix. Yep, the schdule eases up after this coming series.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Jun 9, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The O’s have pleasantly surprised me with how well they’ve kept playing this year, given that all the projections seemed to have them going 67-95. They’d have to go 4-32 to do that now, and that just isn’t happening. Not even slightly.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on Jun 10, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont get it
are you saying you’ll be pleasantly surprised if they go 63-63? i mean, yea, thatd be cool too…
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
by daveh873 on Jun 10, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m saying I wouldn’t be utterly shocked if they somehow went 29-71. We’ve seen 4-32.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on Jun 10, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, i hear ya
somehow i just dont see this team giving up that way though (everyone knock on wood). sure they could definitely slip below .500, but this team just seems to care a bit (alot) more then some previous teams. i would be suprised if they went 29-71. 40-60? not so suprised.
then again, lets see who gets dealt. I rather see this team get destroyed for the rest of the year and have some killer trades happen at the deadline then see them go .500 and get stuck with once-tradable commodities.
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
by daveh873 on Jun 10, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know...
those numbers – 4-32 – look familiar. When did I see them last? I think it was an August…
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on Jun 10, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, the schedule eases up...
but the thing about, at least past, Orioles teams is that they have had a tendency to play up to and/or down to their competition. I.E. Past Orioles teams would sweep the Yankees at home then lose 3 of 4 to the Devil Rays and then get swept by the Royals or something stupid like that. So I’m going to see how that works out in that “easy” stretch of games… not to mention there ARE NL games in there and we all know how that works.
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 10, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
with 3 games left, the o’s are tied for 3rd in the east (positive!). also, they are tied for last (negative).
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
by daveh873 on Jun 10, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not tied for last anymore
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jun 11, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually...
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2008 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, replied below
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jun 11, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brutal, Smutal...
Fuck that!
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
32 and 31 is better than 33 and 32 percentage wise. If GB are tied, got to look at percentage.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jun 11, 2008 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah but...
as Titov mentioned… some are more meteorologically challanged then others. Can’t really make that comparison only because we haven’t all played the same number of games… TomAto-TomOtto…. but having said that, Go Alone in Third Place O’s!!!
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as of today..
13-12 on this brutal stretch… Even if we lose both remaining games 13-14 is very respectable and I think every damn one of us will still be extremely happy.
"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)
by dayzd toe on Jun 11, 2008 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I’d say regardless of the outcome of the next two games, our guys have handled themselves well the past four weeks. This team has moxie!
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 11, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d prefer it if they had a big hitting first baseman or DH; but I guess I’ll settle for moxie.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jun 11, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey you gotta start somewhere
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
by Stacey on Jun 11, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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