The Next Four Weeks, Installment 2

by dayzd toe on Jul 14, 2008 10:48 AM EDT

-------------------------------------------------UPDATE---------------------------------------------------

June 24-26, @ CHC (48-28, .632, 3 Games) 2-1, 40-37
June 27-29, @ GNATS (30-47, .390, 3 Games) 1-2, 41-39
June 30-July 3, KC (33-43, .434, 4 Games) 2-2, 43-41
July 4-6, Ponson Testers I (39-38, .506, 3 Games) 1-2, 44-43
July 8-10, @ Gaston's (36-41, .468, 3 Games) 0-3, 44-46... THAT sucked
July 11-13, @ PHN (47,31, .603, 3 Games) 1-2, 45-48

So, 5-11. I mean seriously... we couldn't win ONE in Toronto??? God Damn you Cito Gaston. And we could ONLY win one in the infamous baseball town that is DC?!?

That sucked. Or did it? Maybe, now, MacPhail and Co. won't feel the need to hang on to some of the veterans to "try to make a run" or whatever reason they might have given.

If you said under .500, give yourself a pat on the back, you blastphemous motherfucker.

Sure it sucks to suck, but, we suck. Get used to it, for now. It'll get better. I promise

Ooh child, things are gonna get easier
Ooh child, things will get brighter
Ooh child, things are gonna get easier
Ooh child, things will get brighter

Someday we'll put it together and we'll get all done

------------------------------------------END UPDATE---------------------------------------------------

So I know we've already revisited Stacey's "The next four weeks are going to be brutal," but this is not about that. This is actually about the NEXT four weeks.

Here we stand on June 23rd with our boys in a bus on the way to ChiTown (actually, probably already in their ChiTown hotel) with a 38-36 record. That's right, TWO games over .500, 3.5 games ahead of The

Gaston's,
7 back of the PHN, 2 behind MFY, and 5.5 out of the Wild Card... Who'd a thunk it, huh?

After going 13-14 on The Original "Brutal" Stretch, we found ourselves thrilled. Since then we went 7-2 at home against the NL (not our strong suit since interleague's inception), and now 1-2 on the road against the Brew Crew. Honestly, I'll be happy with 2 out of 6 against this young Crew at the band box that is Miller Park, and in Chicago where the Cubs are 32-8 at home (That's an .800 wpct.!) and have the best overall record in baseball. If we don't get swept by them I'll be happy and surprised.

The upcoming schedule looks a little like this.
June 24-26, @ CHC (48-28, .632, 3 Games) 2-1, 40-37
June 27-29, @ GNATS (30-47, .390, 3 Games) 1-2, 41-39
June 30-July 3, KC (33-43, .434, 4 Games) 2-2, 43-41
July 4-6, Ponson Testers I (39-38, .506, 3 Games) 1-2, 44-43
July 8-10, @ Gaston's (36-41, .468, 3 Games) 0-3, 44-46... THAT sucked
July 11-13, @ PHN (47,31, .603, 3 Games) 1-2, 45-48

July 14-16, ALL-STAR BREAK

July 17-20, Los Tigres (36-39, .480, 4 Games)

Any guesses as to our record, +/-.500, or position in the standings at the break?

After all that, I say we go into Washington 39-38, take two of three from them (losing Sunday's game, of course) putting us at 41-39. Then back to Baltimore where we take 3 of 4 from KC and one from Texas.

So into the last week before the break we'd be 45-42 with 3 in Toronto and 3 in PHN. We sweep the Jays, and steal one from Boston, putting us at 49-44 at the break. After the ASG Detroit comes to town for four where I say, conservatively, we split.

Is 13-10 too pollyanna? Or is that actually realistic with this team this year? I'm having trouble discerning between the two.

Opinions?

Poll

Will the Orioles be at or above .500 at the All-Star break?

FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

5 recs | Comment 34 comments

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Comments

We'll be up there

I told myself I’d stop watching the Orioles this year if they fall below .450. I hope they keep it up for both of our sakes. Nobody likes me, or indeed, no one likes any baseball fan in July or August when the team is already dead in the water….

[i]The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives[/i] - [b]HST[/b]

by the fix is in on Jun 23, 2008 10:09 AM EDT 0 recs

Hopefully (Hopelessly?) Optimistic

I feel pretty good about where we’re going over the next couple weeks. CHC will be a tough series, no question, but we tend to do pretty well against MFY. The Expos (still not ready to acknowledge a DC team) don’t concern me, and we should be able to take 2 out of 3 from KC.

by blawk359 on Jun 23, 2008 10:09 AM EDT 0 recs

I'll fess up

I’ve reached the point where I don’t care if the O’s plummet to the bottom of the standings. Preferably far enough to draft high (like top 5). This current team is keeping it together together with duct tape, moxie, and all that stuff. They’ve held their own against bad teams and lose to good teams. It’s been fun, but the bottom line is this team, as currently constructed, is not going to the playoffs this year or the next.

They have gaping holes and it would be nice to fill another desperately needed position with a young hoss. The current farm system isn’t going to fill the gaps. In the meanwhile, I’m more interested in seeing how MacPhail approaches July. The O’s a still needs a heavy infusion of talent.

by drj on Jun 23, 2008 11:27 AM EDT 0 recs

The farm system

may not fill our offensive needs (besides catcher), but I’d say we’re doing OK for ourselves in the pitching department. And that’s half the ML roster…

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Jun 23, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

My predictions
June 24-26, CHC 1-2
June 27-29, GNATS 2-1
June 30-July 3, KC 3-1
July 4-6, Ponson Testers 1-2
July 8-10, Gaston’s 2-1
July 11-13, PHN 1-2
Total: 10-9

That’s pretty much the status quo. The pitching is starting to falter a bit. I think they’ll get back on track somewhat, but not enough to make any kind of major run. The hitting has been decent of late.

I understand drj’s POV that plummeting to the bottom of the standings will help the team in the long run, but I don’t agree. For one thing, the baseball draft is so unpredictable that it’s tough to bank on the future through it. I think the O’s drafting people can find some good players that fall to them in whatever position they find themselves. And while we don’t have any more big chips to trade (except possibly Roberts), we have a few pieces that could bring us back something good in trades. Bradford, Huff, and Sherrill are the first i think of.

I actually think that this team ending up like the O’s teams of recent years (July/August swoon, free falling in the standings) could do more harm than good. For the players that might be here awhile (Markakis, Jones, maybe even Luke and Guts) and those on their way up (Reimold, Weiters), I think it’s good for their psyche to be on a team that stands a chance. And if and when the O’s decide to go after free agents, it’ll be a much easier sell. Think, "we’ve been holding our own in the AL East for the past two years, but signing you, Free Agent X, will really put us over the top" as opposed to "We’ve been in 4th or 5th place for as long as you can remember, but look at our draft picks!"

I rec’d this by the way. If enough people do it we should be able to keep it up at the top for re-evaluation as the weeks pass.

"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones

by Stacey on Jun 23, 2008 12:36 PM EDT 0 recs

yeah

I wondered about the effect of a collapse, particularly with guys that the O’s may try to extend (Markakis will be very interesting this off season). Dismantling the team in July may have negative immediate effects. Maybe MacPhail waits until the off season and lets a few guys walk if they get a sandwhich pick in compensation. I’d just like to see MacPhail and the O’s do what’s best for the long term. It will all be a crapshoot, but I just want to see much more young talent come in.

Talk of wild card and games out this season is all a bunch of BS as far as I’m concerned. I just hope MacPhail will do what is best for a few years down the road, and is under no pressure to do otherwise.

by drj on Jun 23, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

on the talk of games out and wild card hopes. It’s not going to happen, and even if it seems like a possibility it’s not something MacPhail should consider when making moves.

by Stacey on Jun 24, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

oh, I know...

but it’s still fun to talk about. Afterall, we don’t get to much lately.

"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)

by dayzd toe on Jun 24, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

completely agree

say we do go after teixeira this offseason. we wont be his only suitors for sure. now i know he loves bmore, but isnt it just a bit more enticing when the team looks like its on the right path and a maybe just a few players from serious contention? i think at this point winning will help lure more talent (via free agency) then losing will (via the draft).

"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17

by daveh873 on Jun 24, 2008 8:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

My predictions

CHC 1-2
DC – 3-0 (break the Sunday streak, finally)
KC – 3-1
TX – 1-2
CANADA – 2-1
PINK HATS – 1-2

so, 11-8. I think it can be done.

by getxstoked on Jun 23, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs

That sounds like a winner

although I’m not as optimistic about the Sunday game against the Gnats. Put me down for 10-9.

by duck on Jun 23, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's southeast DC...

someone could at least kneecap Hunter and get away with it…

by getxstoked on Jun 23, 2008 9:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Had a Ford F100 go up at 10 pm on a Friday

on the way to a Dirty Rotten Imbeciles show. That was fun….me and my headbanger self, with a friend who looked like an extra from a Ramones show, and we’re tromping around SE DC trying to

A) Figure out where the hell we are
B) Trying to find ANYONE to get directions who isn’t busy enjoying the services of a lady of the evening
C) Not have anyone notice we’re broken down with a pickup that has a “Vote Against the Gun Ban” bumper sticker on it.

Yeah, THAT was fun. Good luck, Jim.

And I never did see DRI, either, dammit.

by duck on Jun 23, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Guthrie's Starting

And I’ll be at the game.

Guaranteed win.

by dkdc on Jun 24, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

It will only be a tie

if he pitches a shutout, or are you predicting he hits a HR, too, to win 1-0?

by duck on Jun 24, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

FTR

The “Gnats” nickname (with that spelling) was already long in use by haters of the Giants (usually Dodgers fans)...

Jamie Walker T-shirts: http://www.cafepress.com/beltwaysports

by CStoneNo37 on Jun 24, 2008 11:21 AM EDT 0 recs

I don't care...

that doesn’t make any sense. A gnat is a tiny pest (Much like the Nats are currently to the rest of baseball). How can a Giant be a gnat… people on the left coast get too much sun.

"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)

by dayzd toe on Jun 24, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

I say we fall below .500

with in the next week. I hope they trade some of these guys right now, Danny would be a great trade for some bats – Marlins?, The others just get them out of here before they return to normal.

by merdon1332000 on Jun 24, 2008 12:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Danny would be a great trade for some bats

Maple, or should they hold out for ash?

"He’s in trouble. Whatever he throws me, I’m going to hit it."
-- Alex Cintron

by BrianS on Jun 25, 2008 8:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

Wow

just realized there are 6 more games until we’ve officially played half the season (81 games). thats 2 against chi, 3 against dc, and 1 against kc. if long as we win 2 of those 6 games, we finish the first half above .500. not too shabby for a team that was supposed to lose 100 games, no?

"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17

by daveh873 on Jun 25, 2008 9:27 AM EDT 0 recs

“Hello!”

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Jun 25, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

the good news...

the o’s have at least clinched .500 in interleague.

foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08

by j.q. higgins on Jun 25, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

man you're a downer...

but still, this team is not losing 100 games. and i’m pretty sure its record in the 2nd half will be better than the ‘05 squad’s (unless they trade mora, huff, millar, and roberts and field luis, bynum, fahey, and torres in the infield all at once).

"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17

by daveh873 on Jun 25, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm hoping that unlike 2005

there isn’t a big steroids scandal associated with the Orioles. That had to be hurtful.

Nick Markakis: The Actual Greek God of Walks

by wickedwitch on Jun 26, 2008 7:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

That was defnitely

a mitigating circumstance

by duck on Jun 26, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

I dunno

There was that, the mutiny against Mazzilli, the fact that they were playing wa-hey-hey-hey over their heads for a month and a half or so—lots of things went bad wrong with that bunch. Goddamn, remember that second half? Gives me the willies.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Jun 27, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Seriously

That was the only time I can ever remember the Orioles actually depressing me. The hot start was one thing – they’d had fluke runs before. But it went on for two-plus months, and even ESPFN was paying attention to them, and they could do no wrong. Sammy Sosa was horsecrap and it didn’t even matter – they’d call up bozos like Jeff Fiorentino and he’d get 8 hits in two games.

They started scuffling right before the ASB, and then it went to hell so fast and in so many ways. The on-field stuff was one thing, but Raffy’s drug test cut me deep. He was my childhood hero, and he was suddenly a laughingstock and the first big-name sacrifice (the first one actually suspended, anyway). Phil Nevin vetoes a trade to the O’s that would’ve actually allowed us to be free of Ponson…a week later Sidney gets his third DUI and they look even worse. Mazzilli gets fired, with no less a man than Tejada digging his grave. It was just bad in every sense of the word. I hope I never live through something like that again as a sports fan.

by Brotz13 on Jun 27, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

wow...

i think i’ve been repressing that. it’s one thing to hear that stuff in isolation, but the totality of it staggering. i had totally forgotten about phil nevin. you also omitted eric byrnes coming to b’more and COMPLETELY shitting the bed.

foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08

by j.q. higgins on Jun 27, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, 2005 was the biggest bummer

Because at the time I was someone who had only recently starting watching a lot of baseball, and I got way too excited….I learned a lot that season. I learned how long of a season it really was….

The Orioles have to watch out for the Royals. They’re getting hot again…

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Jun 28, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

6-7 so far in this stretch

Cubs: 2-1
Nats: 1-2
Royals: 2-2
Rangers: 1-2

That’s one game than I’d predicted, but it seems the pitching is really falling apart. I wouldn’t be surprised if the upcoming road trip to Toronto/Boston is UGLY. Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was great either. I can’t get a handle on this team.

by Stacey on Jul 7, 2008 2:31 PM EDT 0 recs

yeah... one game under

my predictions too.

I had:
1-2 vs. Cubs (we went 2-1)
2-1 vs. Gnats (we went 1-2)
3-1 vs. Royals (we went 2-2)
1-2 vs. Rangers (we went 1-2)

"Chickens are hard to catch." Jennifer Scott (Luuuuuuuke's Mom)

by dayzd toe on Jul 7, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brutal stretch so far

Since this preview was posted…

-Albers and Loewen to the DL with career-threatening injuries.
-Walker and Cintron to the DL.
-Sherill has blown two saves on late-inning HRs.
-Three other games lost on bullpen implosions.
-Several very sloppy errors have contributed to losses, especially Bynum and Millar booting routine grounders.

On the bright side, the O’s have had no trouble scoring runs over this stretch.

by dkdc on Jul 9, 2008 11:30 AM EDT 0 recs

hopefully, the pen figures things out shortly.

I’m hoping DD has everyone out for infield practice today, and has Ramon making throws to second, since that’s really where the game was lost, the error on Bynum was just the topper to the crap cake.

by getxstoked on Jul 9, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up 0 recs