Ongoing Statistical Analysis

by Slobbity on Jun 25, 2008 3:47 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

As people have noticed, there has been more and more talk about trades and whether the O's will break down the team by the deadline. But here is some food for thought looking at the going forward schedule. Please note that these comparisons excludes the results from last night, and are vs. the Yanks, Red Sox, and Rays.

- Baltimore has the most home games left at 47.5 (0.5 related to finishing the ChiSox game) out of 88 remaining. Boston comes in at 43, NY at 42 and TB at 38.

- Excluding games against each other (within this grouping of teams), the O's have the following break-out of games against:

Tier 1 Teams (41 wins or more): 16 games, 9 at home
Tier 2 Teams (36 to 40 wins): 29 games, 20 at home
Tier 3 Teams (35 wins or less): 18 games, 8 at home

You can argue whether the Tier cutoffs are appropriate or not as it is just a proxy - however we do have a pretty good home skew, particularly vs. teams we have a legitimate shot at taking 2 of 3 or potentially sweeping. As for the other teams, NY looks to have the roughest road with 17 Tier 1 games (11 home), 33 Tier 2 games (12 home), and 6 Tier 3 games (3 home)

- For games between these 4 teams, the O's have the 2nd least number remaining at 25, with Boston @ 31, NY @ 30, and TB @ 24. However, in this category Baltimore has a negative home skew with 15 of the 25 Away.. and again NY has a rough road with 13 games against BOS.

This last point is the tough part against the O's, but if we do manage to skate through winning 1/2 of those games, there looks to be a way to get to 87 wins playing the way they have been playing. So based on all of the above here is where these 4 teams are tracking in my opinion:

BOS - 98 wins
TAM - 97 wins
BAL - 87 wins
NYY - 82 wins

Possibly an exercise of futility, but if we can scratch out a couple hot streaks it could get interesting.

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NO WAY this team wins 87 games

Look, I’ll drink the Orange Kool-Aid* all day long, but ain’t no way this team wins 87. I know that’s only 5 wins above 82. And we’re a few games over .500 now.

But we almost have the most TOTAL games left, right? We’re at least 4 games in front of Boston in terms of games left to play, and I’d imagine a few in front of all the others, too. When those 2 and 3 weeks stretches of ZERO days off hit, those are streak killers for winning streaks and can propel a losing streak a few more days. Bullpens get burned out, starters crash and burn, and next you you know, you’re staring 4-32 in the face.

All those games in a row we face mitigate any perceived advantage we may have in terms of who we play. In August, it often comes down to how MANY times you play.

From the ASG on:

July 17-July 31: ONE day off, July 31

August 1-Aug 15: ONE day off, August 7

August 16-August 31: TWO days off, August 21 and August 28 (normal days off)

Sept. 1- Sept. 28: THREE days off: Sept. 4, 15 and 25.

So, after the ASG, they have a TOTAL of seven days off for the last half of the year. Seven.

That’s gonna burn out some pitching, folks.

*Yes, I know it was Flavor-Aid at Jonestown, but popular usages says Kool-Aid.

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Jun 25, 2008 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by my count..

Yanks have 6 days off, Rays have 5 days off, and Boston has 8 days off during that span

by Slobbity on Jun 25, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, I guess the Rays and Yanks (especially teh Rays) have even more to worry about

BOS got lucky with postponements this spring. Wow, that’s a brutal stretch for the Rays.

by duck on Jun 25, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The BP will decline. I’m not saying the BP will become horrible but they’re performing over their heads. Huff, Mora, and Millar have played about as well as you could expect them. I could easily see of one, if not, two of them completely tanking in August and Sept. And Mora’s ridiculous OPS with RISP can’t be sustained for the entire season. Ramon is the only player I could see becoming a lot better. Plus we’re winning a ton of 1 run games. Eventually, we’ll become unlucky in these games. Forget about contention, trade the vets, let’s play for 2009 and beyond,.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Jun 25, 2008 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bah!

We were just unlucky to be so unlucky last year but this year we’re lucky to be as lucky as we are and the luck between an unlucky last year and a lucky this year should balance out to a lucky 2nd half…if we’re lucky.

I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH

by BPinOK on Jun 25, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was i was that lucky

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Jun 25, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

all of this is moot

if and when we start trading people away. mcphail doesnt strike me as a kool aid drinker and i’m pretty sure (and hope) he wont be much of a buyer at the deadline

"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17

by daveh873 on Jun 25, 2008 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

seconded

Macphail is in full rebuilding mode and a good first half won’t, and shouldn’t stop his progress. He’s in a much better bargaining position with guys like Cabrera, Huff, Millar and Roberts (not to mention the bullpen) then he was when he spun his masterful deals during winter meetings. I’m sure he’s licking his chops over the prospects he expects to grab before the trade deadline.

Another stat to keep in mind:

RS 336- RA 348

The Orioles have been outscored by 12 runs despite being 3 games over .500. This isn’t necessarily luck (though I think they’ve had a lot of it thus far), but it means they aren’t blowing guys out when they win (suspect offense) and are getting blown out when they lose (suspect pitching staff; sometimes). I’ll be ecstatic if they finish above .500, but in the meantime lets get some young exciting players to build around.

"Every time I fail to smoke a cigarette between innings, the opposition will score." ~Earl Weaver~

by dmouthhog on Jun 25, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

o's offense

if you look at the last 25 games…

TB Runs For / Runs Against / Wins: 107 / 107 / 14
BOS: 124 / 93 / 16
NYY: 124 / 105 / 16
BAL: 130 / 133 / 14

Pitching is really where they are losing games… an interestingly enough BAL and TB have had the toughest span during that period

TB Tier 1 / Tier 2 / Tier 3 Games: 13 / 9 / 3
BOS: 9 / 8 / 8
NYY: 3 / 9 / 13
BAL: 13 / 9 / 3

by Slobbity on Jun 25, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no prize for 3rd place.

And there’s no point in it, either. Keeping it interesting, prolonging the buzz, that’s all well & good – but the focus should be on the future. At this point I fully expect there to be a market for Aubrey Huff, which is something that looked as unlikely as Gibbons not being on the roster 6 months ago. Package a member of our relief corps together with a hot-hitting Huff & we could be looking at an actual solid return.

This has been a lot of fun, but barring a serious fade by Boston, Tampa, and New York coupled with a scorching run by us the plan is still in effect.

From the Land of Pleasant Living...

by OEutaw on Jun 25, 2008 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

At this point I fully expect there to be a market for Aubrey Huff, which is something that looked as unlikely as Gibbons not being on the roster 6 months ago. Package a member of our relief corps together with a hot-hitting Huff & we could be looking at an actual solid return.

Huff gets a ton of shit but he’s actually have a respectable season (OPS+ 124). I don’t know who the O’s could package him with from our relief corp though. Walker is expensive and playing poorly. Bradford is playing OK but he’s expensive. Sherrill is the only candidate. And I’m not sure its beneficial to move Huff with Sherrill. It would probably reduce the number of suitors. The O’s should try to trade them separately. I’m sure Sherrill can be moved. I don’t think Huff will bring back much but clearly off the roster is beneficial in itself.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Jun 25, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Huff is sellable on his own. Lefty bat with pop that can play 1B or 3B/OF in a pinch. Someone will want that guy around. Cleveland could use him if they think they can try to make a run.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

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by SC on Jun 25, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs