Draft Day
by Baltimo on Jun 5, 2008 1:09 AM EDT
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PrintI know a lot of you aren't keeping track of the draft this year from what I gathered from my last post about it, but a very important pick in the future of the O's will be made later today. Apparently the Rays are torn between Beckham and Posey, with Alvarez likely dropping to 2 with the Pirates. I would be inclined to say that the Rays are gonna take the high school shortstop Beckham as he fits that athletic, upside, hybrid player that they usually draft who could be an all around stud. There is very little doubt in my mind that the Pirates would let Alvarez, 3B from Vandy, drop past their number 2 overall pick as they have been a historically pathetic team, draft wise, as they were unwilling to pull the trigger when it comes to contract negotiations. The Royals should be left with Posey/Hosmer at 3 and it seems as if guys inside their organization are all over Hosmer instead of Smoak, which somewhat puzzles me.
If Beckham goes no. 1 overall the O's are left with the worst case scenario in my opinion as Posey, Matsuz, and Smoak will still be on the board. Posey is a no go as we have Wieters, I just don't like Matsuz as he is not a shutdown guy coming out and college pitchers have a low success rate, so I think that Smoak, power hitting 1B, would be the best option here. Plus Smoak looks to be kind of almost ready and could be on this clubat the beginning of the 2010 season. If, however, the Rays take Posey at 1 we have a decent shot at Beckham as the Bucs and Rays may go for the picks listed above. To me, Beckham would be the best possible scenario becuase he should be able to fix the shortstop problem, only issue is that he would not be ready for quite some time as he is just coming out of prep school. This should be a big day for the O's as this draft pick will hopefully be the last top 5 for a while, and depending on who is chosen they could be on our contending club around 2010 along with Wieters and some of the other guys in the farm..
Draft will be on ESPN 2 starting at 2 today (June 5).
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Which Beckham are you talking about?
HS Beckham or college Beckham? Is college Beckham even mentioned in the top 5 still?
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women.
by Ghost of Floyd Rayford on Jun 5, 2008 8:39 AM EDT reply actions
hs beckham...
is considered the position player w/ the highest upside.
apparently, the o’s have really been taken w/ aaron crow of late. he’s a big righty and was much higher rated than matusz before this year, but maybe had some injury trouble and is now rebounding. threw 43 straight scoreless innings this year and his k rate spiked (127k/107ip/38bb in 2008 vs. 90k/117ip/33bb in 2007). his era was 2.35; his heater touches 96 and is regarded as having 3 plus pitches. conversely, matusz set the ncaa record for k in a season.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
I think it's going to be Matusz
Unless Tim Beckham or Alvarez miraculously drop.
I’d rather go with a bat, personally.
Roch's picking Matusz too.
You’re in good company.
everybody is picking Matusz
K-Law, BA, and the folks over at XM all said Matusz. I remember everybody said we were taking Ross Detweiler last year…
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
And so did the O's
Good prognostication, Mel Kiper!
And I meant that in a good way.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
I'm more worried about
which negro leagues player we’re going to take.
i’m hoping “peanut” johnson falls to us.
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
It's Woodlawn's Bert Simmons
...or so says the Baltimore Sun.
What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women.
by Ghost of Floyd Rayford on Jun 5, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
frikkin DC got peanut
fun fact: peanut johnson was a female.
"Don't worry, the fans don't start booing until July." - Earl Weaver
Best Player Available
The O’s have got to take the best player available. If Posey is the best guy there you have to take him despite having Weiters. I’ve heard that Posey is athletic enough to play anywhere anyway (he played some SS in his early days at FSU). Or there is the chance that Weiters has to move. There have been reports that he is too big to be a catcher.
With that said here is my personal top 5:
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Justin Smoak
3. Gordan Beckham
4. Brian Matusz
5. Tim Beckham
Joe Mauer is "too big to be a catcher" as well
And that dude…needs to be punched in the face, according to SC. Also, he’s fantastic.
I don’t care if Wieters is 9-feet-tall and the size of Walter Young, (I miss you Walter, you manbeastman) its about foot work. If he has that, if he can call a game, use his feet well, and throw guys out what’s the problem?
i haven't heard anyone...
refer to posey as the best available.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 5, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
sorry...
he may be the best catcher available.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 5, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
There really hasn’t been any one player labeled as best available. I’ve heard a number of guys rumored to go number 1 for the past few monthes (Posey included). Personally I don’t think Posey is the best available. As you can see by my previous post, I don’t even rank him in my top 5 (but I’m not much of a baseball scout). All I was saying is that the O’s should take the best available regardless of position. The baseball draft is too much of a crap shoot to pass on a guy, even with a superprospect like Weiters already in the system. If both develop then you either “platoon” or trade for one for a prospect at a position of need.
too big
I don’t think its much of a possibility either, but there have been rumors. Of course it wouldn’t hurt to have Weiters and Posey sharing the work at catcher. It’s a tough position and it could keep them both playing better and longer. Although I personally don’t really like Posey compared to other options that should be available.
Posey may not even go to the Rays
he is asking too much ($12 million)
"We might as well just win this game." -Adam Jones
It looks like its going to be
T. Beckham
Alvarez
Hosmer
Orioles left without Alvarez or Beckham and choose Matsuz.
It would be iffy if the Rays alone pass up on Alvarez, but no way he drops to 4 unless he is asking for money around what Posey wants. Beckham is another story, if Posey somehow still goes 1, the Pirates will opt for Alvarez and the Royals are all over Hosmer as of late.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
College Pitchers Have Low Success Rates?
Everything I’ve read states the opposite is true among players selected in the draft and high school pitchers rarely reach the Majors.
That said, I too would like to see the Orioles select a power-hitting position player. The pitching staff is in OK shape now and seems to have some depth in the farm system.
College pitchers
Have a higher success rate that high school pitchers, but that is not saying much at all. Both high school hitters and college hitters have a better chance of making it to the bigs, and doing well than college pitchers. No one drafts a high school pitcher unless he is a remarkable talent and is a sure fire thing, which usually entails the guy throwing mid to upper 90’s and being able to develop at least 3 pitches.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
So you're saying
that teams shouldn’t draft pitchers high in the draft unless he’s a can’t-miss prospect. Correct?
High school pitchers
shouldn’t be drafted unless they are can’t miss prospects. That’s what I was saying.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
What about college pitchers?
Do you think they should be drafted high?
I’m not trying to be confrontational, I’m just curious what you think. I’ve read that high school pitchers should be avoided like the plague.
hmmm...
just looking at frist rounders from the “moneyball draft” and beyond, these are some of the high school pitchers that have been selected:
phil hughes
homer bailey
loewen
john danks
clayton kershaw
zach greinke
scott kazmir
cole hamels
chad billingsley
tim lincecum
for whatever reason, it seems that the 2002 and 2004 drafts have yielded the highest amount of high schoolers to stick.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 5, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Thing thing is
With high school pitchers there is just too much that could go wrong. These guys are 17 and 18 coming out of school and are not close to being fully mature. Scouts are always drawn in by the guy that can break 94 on a radar gun, and if the velocity of his first pitch is the same as his last they start drooling. Pitchers coming out of high school are still developing their mechanics, and what a scout is primarily looking for is the potential, or ceiling, of a guy that would be able to develop an off speed pitch and some kind of breaking ball to compliment his heater. Even though scouts are fully aware of it, a lot of prep school pitchers are getting by purely on their “stuff” as they are able to blow it by hitters. The hope is that the pitcher could develop some movement on that fastball and/or have the ball explode right before it crosses the plate. Good high school hitters have the potential to have the five tools, whereas most end up having only three, there are even less high school pitchers who have any of the tools needed to be an end of the rotation type guy.
College pitchers are a diffrent story as they have had three more years to hone their natural skills. By the time they are coming out of university, the elite pitchers that go in the first round have two, sometimes three, really good pitches that they can use to keep a batter on his toes. Most of the guys that go in the top ten have some kind of an out pitch, and can rely on their fastball to get back in control of the count. A lot of the things listed above that college pitchers have are not possessed by most high school guys and come with maturation. The most obvous benefit of a college pitcher is that he has had a much higher level of competition, having to face guys who were the best at their high schools every night.
You just never know with a high school pitcher if his work ethic, physical condition, or basic skills will deteriorate as he starts to face real baseball players. Out of the four types of guys drafted (HS Pitchers, HS Hitters, College Pitchers, College Hitters), a high school pitcher has by far the least chance of making it to the bigs. Recently there have been a few good guys like Kershaw, Kazmir, and Lincecum but you never know. Oddly enough, a high school pitcher that pans out pretty well is an Adam Loewen type guy who is far from a stud.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Even can't miss HS pitchers...
miss.
Remember THIS guy?
Got to see him at Delmarva years ago. Still in Low A ball in 1998, SEVEN YEARS after he was drafted. Wow.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
In the interest of fairness
he got hurt.
Dumbass was in a bar fight, but still, you can’t say the scouts made the wrong call at the time.
You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.
I didn't say he was horrible
I just said he missed. And since it was an underage bar fight that finished his career, I’d say it was self-inflicted.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
Draft
I don’t really care what player they take in the first round, it’s the fact that we have a tough time finding the gems in later rounds. I hope McPhail has done his homework and will stock our farm with some depth of talent.
Pray that the Pirates are still the cheapasses we know them to be...
Given the dropoff in our system betwixt Wieters & everybody else, I am hoping for a bat.
We appear to have pitching oozing out our ears and, while you can never have enough pitching, I think you do at some point need to pay attention to the offensive portion of the game.
Alvarez would be ideal. Smoak has got the power. I don’t know much about Posey, but is it really such a bad thing if we have two catchers who can hit? I think those are premium chips these days. Perhaps one of them would like to try 1B?
I keep hearing that Matusz has the ceiling of a #2 in the majors. That’s great & all, but I was hoping for something a tad more substantial with the #4 overall pick in such a deep draft.
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
Also...
Posey could move back to SS. I don’t know much about him, but I do know he was an all-star SS at one point…
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
I didn't really watch him play
When he was at short but I know that he only filled the hole because FSU needed it. When he moved to catcher sophomore year he became a monster behind the plate and is a great catcher relative to the way he hits. I just don’t think an organization would draft two guys coming out from the same level of experience that play the same position. The only way I could see that happening is if one of the guys had an injury that jeopardized his career.
I guess I don’t put much stock into the fact that he is 21 and can’t change positions because he is too old on account of the fact that he did move around the field this season when was needed, but I do think that one of the reasons this guy is getting looks from the top 3 is because of the combination of his bat and skills behind the plate. If your looking at batting skills alone this guy isn’t top 5, he is gonna hit for an average but is big and can’t run without hitting many homers.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Rays have taken Beckham first overall
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
What do you think OEutaw
Quick: Smoak or Matusz?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
I'm big on hitters right now.
But I honestly don’t know enough to say…
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
Royals have taken Eric Hosmer.
This is what everyone predicted. Between Smoak and Matusz.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
O's take Brian Matusz
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Tall power LHP – I am immediately wondering if this is a replacement for Loewen.
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
MacPhail already said he loves pitching
And he wanted to stockpile the minors with it. All in all, reading around, I guess we can’t be disappointed here. Plus I think Joe Jordan has a record we should respect.
Given all that, I still want to see some bats! I suspect MacPhail thinks the farm system is still so weak so as to go after the one strength that is much more difficult to trade for or buy.
by drj on Jun 5, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This is pretty far out
But I think that MacPhail is counting on the fact that Markakis, Wieters, and AJ will be strong enough to build around with addition outside of the organization, possibly complemented by one other guy coming out of the farm like Rowell or Reimold. Although the O’s have 4-6 quality pitchers in the farm right now, probably one or two will pan out to have a semi decent or better career in the majors. Matusz is almost a lock to at least make it, he has all the “stuff” and control.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Everybody needs pitching
Not everybody has a need at 3B or 1B. Lots easier to deal and get good stuff back when you’re OFFERING pitching than when you need it.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
Upside from taking Matusz: He is pretty much a sure thing to make it to the majors, there is not much of anything bad to say about the guy, he should be able to work his way up through the system to be here by 2009, and he has a 95 mph fastball with pitches to compiment.
Downside: We already have a plethora of pitching and have possibly missed out on a great power hitter in Smoak, besides high school pitchers, college pitchers stand the least chance to do well, I just have a gut instinct he will be a back of the rotation type guy.
One thing I will say is that he has been consistently good to the point that he is underrated. I could see this guy being an Andy Pettite type guy at his best or a Bronson Arroyo at his low point.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Upside from taking Matusz: He is pretty much a sure thing to make it to the majors, there is not much of anything bad to say about the guy, he should be able to work his way up through the system to be here by 2009, and he has a 95 mph fastball with pitches to compliment.
Downside: We already have a plethora of pitching and have possibly missed out on a great power hitter in Smoak, besides high school pitchers, college pitchers stand the least chance to do well, I just have a gut instinct he will be a back of the rotation type guy.
One thing I will say is that he has been consistently good to the point that he is underrated. I could see this guy being an Andy Pettite type guy at his best or a Bronson Arroyo at his low point.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Posey goes 5th
I could now see Smoak falling to Chicago with the Marlins opting for Skipworth and the Reds happy to get G. Beckham.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Kyle Skipworth to the Marlins at #6
That’s interesting, Florida.
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
Yup
They were hoping Posey would drop they need a catcher. Reds will definitely go for G. Beckham as they have hoped for and Smoak should be taken by Chicago at 8.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Alonso
......Reds were raving about Beckham for ages. That is a terrible pick in my opinion.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Posey
I was surprised to hear FL interested in Posey when he’s asking for a 12M signing bonus.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
Their payroll is like 2 thousand dollars anyways
They have money to spare.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
At 8
Chicago takes G. Beckham. Wow Smoak may fall to the Nats now, that would be very, very painful if he pans out.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Crow to Nats
Should be fun to see which one of the pitchers does better.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Jeez
Smoak is gonna fall to us in the 2nd round.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
OK so I'm a draft dummy
How many rounds are there? Do they do them all in one day?
"We’re not concerned about what other teams think. I know teams come in here thinking we’re playing the Orioles. And then 9 innings later, they got the loss, they know what we’re about." ~Adam Jones
All I'll say is that I'm totally behind whatever MacPhail does at this point.
Is there a general idea how far out Matusz is? Baltimo – you said 2009? Is he really that ready?
Sept 2009 at the earliest
If his minor league transition goes perfectly, he could be in the 2010 opening day rotation.
As I have said
This isn’t a breakout year, he has been good for a long time and has developed three good pitches with an apparent decent cutter which I have never seen. His velocity is good enough to get him to AA almost immediately, but hopefully he will have nearly a full year at Bowie/Norfolk. Absolute earliest that I could see is September 2009, but I couldn’t see much later either. By 2010 he should be worked completely into the rotation.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
The next question is, with more pitching now in the system, who gets traded?
I assume MacPhail has to trade for position players at some point.
Is Sherrill a candidate for selling high? Cabrera? Throw Burres into a package deal (maybe with Roberts)? No one from the minors is going to net the MLB ready (or nearly ready) position players the O’s need.
My read
I think Matusz-over-Smoak could mean a couple things:
1) Cabrera/Guthrie are going to get shopped.
2) The O’s are going hard after Tex.
Sherrill and Roberts will be shopped too, there’s no reason to change that part of the plan.
I think Cabrera more than Guthrie
might be on the block sometime soon.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Jun 5, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely Cabs first, he's much closer to free agency.
I would be surprised if Andy shopped Guts.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
I think Sherrill too
Who believes he’ll continue as a career closer? He’s probably about as high as he’s going to get. The O’s have possibilities for the pen. Maybe it’s Johnson or next year Ray can come back. There are plenty of other possibilities in the minors. If someone is willing to pay a nice price for Sherrill, I think he’s gone.
by drj on Jun 5, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy is just stockpiling arms
That’s his MO. 1 and 2 are going to happen regardless of who the O’s drafted in the first round.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
I would be happy...
It may not make any sense at all to spend that kind of money but it’s all imaginary money to me anyway. I’d LOVE to have Teixiera.
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
Sure, why not?
Who cares.. it’s PA’s money anyhow. Make Teixiera wealthy, have him hit for us for a few years.. not like we have a 1st baseman burning to bump into the majors anytime soon.
As much as I'd HATE to trade away this team...
For every guy we trade … if we can get 2 or 3 great prospects, imagine what that will do to our farm system at this point. And Cabrera – I couldn’t imagine he had any trade value early this year – now I think he has some marginal value attached to him.
My scientific list:
Sherrill – 2 prospects
Cabrera – 2 prospects
Bradford – 1 prospect
Roberts – 3 prospects
Trachsel for Jay Bruce, straight up.
Trax/Bruce
I called that this spring but unfortunately I don’t the Reds were on board.
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
R2 and R3
2nd Round we took Xavier Avery a small, fast looking lefty outfielder from Cedar Grove HS in GA.
We just took Jerome Hoes from St John’s HS in Wash DC in the 3rd round. A local kid. Infield. Righty.
Writing is God's way of showing you how sloppy your thinking is.
next up: 47 more rounds of pretty good looking high school kids.
Writing is God's way of showing you how sloppy your thinking is.
47 rounds
of “pretty good looking” high school girls would be more fun. Alright, alright, alright…
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
O's up, Hoes down
if that kid can’t hit…he’s bound to drizzown.
I’ve got a new favorite player!
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
o's before hoes?
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Jun 6, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That would
be great advice for him. Just a reminder to put the team before himself.
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
there's no "i" in team...
but there is an “o” in hoes.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
Some day...
The O’s could have a roster featuring Hoes and Hoey. That’s the stuff dreams are made of.
a roster worthy...
of a dirty limerick or abbott and costello working blue, for sure.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
I would wear this...
in several different color ways.
Could there also be a “Birds Before Broads” version?
I hope
they use more than those MLB scouting videos to pick players. I watched Xavier Avery’s ABs in a game and he walked, grounded out, struck out and hit about 5 foul balls.
I've got two nickels and a paradigm. - RWH
Good day for Georgia baseball
They just pumped out guys from both high school and college down there.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Nice comparison
between Kershaw and Matusz from baseball intellect found here: http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/college-draft-brian-matusz.html
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
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