Matt Wieters
by yurizanow on Jun 5, 2008 10:56 AM EDT
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PrintI don't know if anybody has noticed, but Matt Wieters is literally beating the shit out of the ball down in Frederick with a line of .324/.420/.566 and 12 home runs.
I realize that those are A ball stats, but I'm still pretty impressed. Does anybody have any idea when he will arrive on the big-league club or when he should arrive?
Second, jonnypops and I talked about him when we met at the New York meetup a few months ago. Jonny said that a guy with his stats shouldn't be a catcher. I thought "let him play where he wants", but now I'm reconsidering. He's supposed to be an amazing defensive catcher, but I worry that catching will detract from his potentially greater value as a hitter. Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, and Mike Piazza didn't seem to benefit from having their catching duties removed, but Jimmie Foxx, Dale Murphy, and Craig Biggio did. What do you guys think?
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He isn't an amazing catcher behind the plate
But he is very damn good. He can call a game very well for a guy that young, and has a cannon of an arm. He is also 22 and it would be iffy to start moving this guy around that late in his carrer, irrespective of what level he is currently playing at.
Everyone has demanded that Wieters be moved up from Frederick as he has just demolished every pitcher there but MacPhail and the FO decided before the season even started that they would work this guy methodically and not rush him. Too many times have stand out prospects coming out of college gone almost directly to AA ball and from there the big league club to just end up making a career at AAA. Although I don’t think Wieters would succumb to this fate I like the approach MacPhail and co. are taking. What is the rush in bringing this guy to the club? He will probably be moved up to Bowie late this month or at the latest around the all star break as he isn’t exactly young anymore and it would be pointless to keep him at A ball for any longer than that.
In my own personal best case scenario he finishes this year at Delmarva and begins next year at Norfolk. It is not rushing it to have him out of AAA at in the bigs by the end of 2009 when it is call up time anyways as Wieters will be 23 going on 24 years old. If you call him up in August of September of 2009 he will essentially have had a full high school, college, winter ball, and minor league experience and be ready for the bigs. Hopefully by that time Rowell can put it together by then and Tillman will be well on his way too. If one of the other pitchers we have (Hernandez, Arrieta, etc) can piece it together and a Smoak/Matsuz guy is ready the year after that the O’s should be in good shape.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
I wish, wish he was at Delmarva
but he skipped us and went right to Frederick. Hell, I would have bought season tickets if he was at Delmarva!
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
Delmarva
It wouldn’t make much sense for him to go from Frederick to Delmarva, would it? I meant that he would move from high A Frederick to AA Bowie.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
It took it to mean
that you thought he was in Delmarva now, and pointing out that error. He’s never stepped foot in Salisbury unless it was to party at a SU Lacrosse game. Hey, if it’s good enough for Michael Phelps…
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
yeah...
i pretty much hold to my opinion that he will be ready and the team will be inclined to give him substantial amount of pt by next year. probably do something around the all star break. of course, this sort of presumes that hernandez can hold it together. i suppose it’s possible that he just rules camp next year and ramon becomes a very expensive caddie or ramon could even totally breakdown before the expiration of his contract.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
He shouldn't be a catcher.
And my reasoning is when you have a guy that can hit like this kid, it’s stupid to put him in the position where he has the highest chance of getting injured. Now the ballclub might be thinking “Well we have him under contractual control during his first six years in the bigs, and his knees probably won’t give out during that time.” This is a flawed way of thinking. The organization has invested a lot of money in signing this guy, and if he turns out as good as he appears, the goal should be to keep him long term, which means keeping him healthy and productive. Plus there are plenty of risks besides the knees a catcher is subjected to day-in, day-out. He should get some stars at 1B and the OF while in the minors and if his hitting remains as good as we hope when he’s moved up he should then change positions, permanently, when he gets to the bigs. There’s a reason there’s only a handful of Mike Piazza’s out there. It’s because it’s a stupid ass idea to have a guy that hits that well catching.
I agree 100%
but it seems like a lot of people don’t agree with this philosophy. The thinking behind keeping him him at catcher is simply that he is really good behind the plate, he can throw guys out, block the plate, and call a game. I have always been a believer that the catchers spot in the lineup should be essentially an at bat thrown away. Some people disagree and think that the guy should at least have some pop, but I don’t think so, as long as the guy can calm a pitcher down and make the runners think twice about stealing a bag, I don’t care how poorly he hits. If you have made it to the majors you probably aren’t going to hit under .210 anyways and there are quite a few catchers who can pop 10-15 a year which is good enough for me. I have always felt that the catcher and shortstop position shouldn’t be asked much at the plate, but with the guys like Miguel Tejada and Mike Piazza defying the standard it is more common for power hitters to fill those positions. I don’t think Wieters is quite mobile enough to play left field for the O’s, but first base is a definite possibility if Smoak isn’t drafted.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Jonny, is this opinion or do you have
historical evidence?
It’s not like there have not been great hitting catchers before. And how many great hitters have there been who started out as catchers but were switched to the field? Biggio and Surhoff were switched, but only after playing several years behind the plate. Yuri mentions Foxx and Murphy. I have no idea how much Jimmie Foxx played behind the plate in the bigs, but I believe Murphy was moved to the outfield while in the minors.
This sounds like one of those “everybody knows” deals, as in everybody knows playing catcher is the most physically demanding position, (not to mention the most mentally demanding one as well), plus being back there with tipped balls, swinging bats and guys barrelling in from third the opportunity for injury is higher, therefore it’s stupid to put your best player in that situation.
I don’t buy that. Who is the last great or even potentially great player whose career was cut short from playing behind the plate? The only guy that comes immdiately to mind is Ray Fosse. He’s probably a granpa by now. Catcher is arguably the most important position on the field. In addition to having to know the opposing hitters, as well as the strengths and wealnesses of his own pitchers, he’s responsible for directing the movement of the infielders and the ball, once it’s in play. He determines which base throws from the outfield go to, or whether the cut off man executes or lets the ball through. Personally, if Wieters is the stud he appears to be, he’s exactly what I want behind the plate. I want the best player on my team in charge back there. If, after a few years, they decide to move him to another position, so be it. But doing it preemptively does not make a lot of sense. At least not without good evidence.
Everybody knows
that kneeling for 1.5 hours+ per night, making snap throws to 2B, having to make highly unnatural motions to catch crazy breaking pitches, having 90-100 mph fastballs thrown straight at you hundreds of times each week, and having dudes run full speed into you for plays at the plate to score runs makes catching the most injury prone position in baseball (for position players, pitchers obviously get thrown out of wack more often by their throwing motions). I’m a little too busy to give you the academic footnotes and citations necessary to meet TimG Standards, but if you’d like to spend your day trying to disprove what I’m saying I’d be happy to give it a look.
I took a quick look at players
currently on the DL.
Posada – C
V Martinez – C
hey, you’re looking pretty smart there Jonny.
Pujols – 1B
Pena – 1B
Zimmerman – 3B
Nomar – 3B
Tulowitski – SS
Furcal – SS
R. Freel – OF
Guerrero (sp?) – OF
A. Jones – OF
Vernon Wells – OF
Matt Holliday – OF
C. Crawford – OF
T Hafner – DH
Ortiz – DH
I realize this is not a scientific study, nor even a complete listing of players on the DL, but I certainly don’t see any trend indicating catchers getting injured at higher rate than other position players.
Playing catcher hasn’t seemed to hurt the careers of guys like Piazza, Fisk, Varitek, Javy Lopez or Pudge. Nor have I heard a lot of clammering for guys like Brian McCann, Joe Mauer or Russ Martin to be switched away from catcher.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Yours seems to be that star players shouldn’t be playing catcher. Fine. But it appears at this point to be nothing more than opinion.
btw – why do you have to be such an ass every time someone questions your opinion. I asked a fair question and you do your snide Jonny Pops thing.
Believe it or not...
...I find most of your responses to me to be both arrogant and snide on this board as well – so we actually have something in common besides Oriole fandom! Although I’m not really interested in getting into El Guerro Flamo with you yet again, because 1) I’m pretty sure you can guess what I think of you by now, and 2) I could give two fucks about what you think of me or my opinions.
My point above – and I was not trying to be a dick, I simply don’t have time to be your research assistant – was if you can come up with some real evidence – and not that arbitrary list you took two seconds to type down above – then come talk to me about it. Then we can talk baseball rather than pissing on one another’s legs for once.
And seriously, if you’re trying to do this flame war bullshit again with me, save both your time and mine. Take a deep breath and direct your browser elsewhere. Por favor.
http://www.betinf.com/mlb_injured.htm
10 Catcher Disabled
10 Shortstops Disabled
12 Center Fielders Disabled
I don’t put much stock into that, though, as it could be switched around any given year. Just because one position has two more players on the D.L. does not mean that it takes more wear and tear than the other. Intuitively thinking, which is the catch word of this conversation, of course it makes sense that a catcher would take more damage than any other position on the field. You also have to factor in the fact that catchers are, a lot of the time, the biggest and strongest guys on the team and can withstand the kind of beating they receive. If you switched the positions of Coco Crisp and AJ Pierzynski do you think that center fielders would still lead that list? To back that up with a semi-fact, Cal was able to play 2632 games straight at SS and 3B; catchers regularly take a game off every six or seven days because it is so taxing on their bodies.
I think the point that Jonny was trying to get to at was that you may not only be taking away from the longevity of his career and risking a stint on the DL, but you could be hurting his hitting abilities as he is somewhat focused on catching the game and has to get rid of all the kinks from crouching down all day.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
If it was just me you responded to this way...
.. then I’d have to question how I come across.
As to your point, that was what I was asking you. You made a statement. I asked if you had any evidense supporting that statement or were you just going along with conventional wisdom. I don’t necessarily think you are wrong. It’s just that folks have been saying this forever, yet I don’t recall seeing studies on it. I also don’t recall seeing inordinate numbers of catchers on the DL or stories of great careers cut short. But as I don’t know everything, I was asking if you were aware of such information.
Now saying that you were not trying to be a dick but were just asking for evidence is cute. The point wasn’t mine, it was yours. I didn’t ask you to be my research assistant. I asked if you had any evidence. As you didn’t, a simple “No, I don’t have any immediately at hand,” would have sufficed. It’s also a nice touch to denigrate a person’s efforts to provide information – information that was clearly identified as being incomplete and therefore not necessarily proof of anything – when you make no effort at all.
Actually
This sounds like one of those "everybody knows" deals
I was kind of wondering the same thing. It’s makes intuitive sense for the reason that JP mentions, but that doesn’t make it true. I love it when I find some stuff that makes intuitive sense but actually turn out to be false when looking at the data.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
I think conventional wisdom holds in this case
Catchers generally do need more time off and seem to break down more often. I don’t have hard evidence, and I’m a big fan of questioning conventional wisdom, but I believe the wisdom this time.
And I also think it’d be a lot better to have Johnny Bench than it would be to have a decent-hitting 1B-man. Like, I dunno, Adrian Gonzalez or something.
Assuming that the numbers drj provided...
... translate fairly closely to MLB, it raises an interesting question. (It raises several questions really.)
If you can expect that every game in which an injury occurs there is a 7.5% chance it will be to your catcher and a 5% chance it will be to your centerfielder, is this reason enough not to play your best players at either of these two positions? I’ll offer up the proposition that both positions are exactly where you want your best players to play, because of the increased impact they can have. (Personally, I don’t think it matters that much. You take your best players where ever you find them. If my best hitter happens to be the catcher, I play him at catcher unless I have somebody who can play the position better.)
I was a bit surprised finding 2nd basemen so high on the list. At a guess I’d say it comes from their vulnerability when turning double plays.
Wieters
If you can expect that every game in which an injury occurs there is a 7.5% chance it will be to your catcher and a 5% chance it will be to your centerfielder, is this reason enough not to play your best players at either of these two positions?
I think the percentages change by age so that NCAA study only has marginal value. With Wieters, we have for six years and then he’s probably gone given that Boras is his agent. During his 20s, I think keeping Wieters at catcher is fine. Catchers tend to start their decline years earlier, but that won’t be an issue for us. Maybe this will piss off some people, but if we were managing Wieters as an asset that we plan to keep the next 10-15 years, then I guess moving him off catcher is more sensible. But we’re not, we most likely have him for six and then he’s gone. Let’s get premium production out of spot that is typically a hole in production for most teams.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
also,
I was a bit surprised finding 2nd basemen so high on the list. At a guess I’d say it comes from their vulnerability when turning double plays.
i didn’t look at the study, but I would check out the level of variation in the data. It doesn’t mean much if 2B are second the list, but all the positions are bunched together.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
one study - based on the NCAA
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1941283
Just a data point, but the in game injury stats are of some interest (see “Game Injuries”). The player most likely to be injured is the base runner, followed by P, batter, C, 2nd/CF, SS, etc. The pitcher is by far the most at risk defensive player. The catcher is several percentage points above everyone else.
One issue here is I’m not sure how they define an injury – it is linked to in another paper.
by drj on Jun 6, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the info.
If I’m looking at it correctly, it appears catchers have about a third more chance of getting injured than the next likeliest position player.
I looked for references in a couple of internet searched but the couple of sites that turned up as appearing most useful were marked off limits from work. (I’m guessing the sites are related to sports betting.)
pure guesswork here
I figure he’ll play 1/3 of a season at A, 2/3 at AA, and a full season at AAA. I think the earliest we should see him in a MLB dugout would be late 09
"You don’t have to be a rocket science" – Jim Palmer.
Roch has said the plan
is to move to Bowie at the All-Star break for those leagues.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
I say keep him a catcher
Having a guy like him who can rake at catcher is a huge plus. If he can’t handle it or the injuries seem like an issue, well, maybe see if he can play left field or something. But Catcher is the highest on the defensive matrix and any other position a guy of his size can play is way way lower. Like LF, 1B, etc. A lot of his value is in his catcher-ness. There’s no guarantee he’ll hit well enough to be a star ML 1Bman.
Also, college guys are supposed to dominate A. Keith Law said he was ready to start at AA, and I’m guessing he should probably be there now. Also, AA is a key point where you see how much a guy can really hit.
Basically keep him a catcher, no guarantee that he’ll be as good at the ML level as his Fredneck stats suggest (he’s older than a lot of those guys).
How do we really know what type of hitter he is going to be. He’s got 980 OPS in A ball; there is nothing to say he’s going to hit that at the ML level.
And I think he should play the most difficult defensive position he can play well. If he can handle catching; then his value will be greatest as a catcher. I don’t think you keep him out of there just becasue you’re worried he could get hurt; especially when it greatly reduces his value.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
I agree... its way too early to tell
He started out extremely hot… but looking at his last 10 games, he’s hitting .220, with 1 HR and 3 RBIs. lets see how he rebounds before slotting him as starting catcher next year.
Wieters (i before e)
Bench, Fisk, Piazza played their careers at catcher and were on the downside when they moved out. I don’t think you should have expected any bounce once they moved. Murphy, Foxx, and Biggio barely played the position in the bigs. I don’t buy into your comparison.
If Wieters guy shows early on he can rake and he’s not the defensive stalwart behind the plate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move. But he’ll come up behind the plate for the O’s.
Wieters
His future is as a catcher and a catcher only. Only an injury will push him out of that position, and it would probably force him into a DH role. He was selected to be another cornerstone of this organization and a long-time battery-mate for our pitchers. If you are having Chris Hoiles fears, then I can’t help you.
Biggio was moved from the plate because of his speed was going to waste behind the plate. It was not based on possibility of injury.
Murphy was moved to the outfield in the minors. My former coach and former Oriole reliever (1983), Dan Morogiello, told our team that Murphy hit Phil Niekro with a throw to second in a practice at spring training. The coach flipped out and told him to the go to the outfield. The rest is history.
Interleague time
Maybe the O’s should call him up when we get on the road for interleague play, might help them figure out what he needs to progress faster
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