Mid-Year Update: Top 20 Prospects
You may recall the original list (CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects) from April, and hey, let's kill some time this morning and look at how the 20 fellas are doing in 2008.
(Teams that the player has also played for this season are in parentheses. Current team is listed first, obviously.)
1. Matt Wieters, C, Bowie (Frederick)
With the way Wieters is raking in his first pro season, it might not be long until we see him sporting that cap for good.
In 69 games with Frederick, Wieters torched the Carolina League to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers. In 13 games since his call-up to Double-A Bowie, the Georgia Tech grad is hitting .356/.442/.600 with two more longballs. He's not just the best Orioles prospects, I'd have to rate him top five in all of baseball right now. There has been no learning curve at all. He stormed out of the gates at Frederick and had only a couple of minor slumps along the way, proving in 229 at-bats that he was way too good for the league.
With the way Ramon Hernandez is hitting, fielding and aging, Wieters might see Baltimore by the end of the year. Why not? He's 22 years old, a polished college prospect, and he's treating the minor leagues like a Hall of Famer on a rehab assignment. He's coming.
Even though he was only 18 years old when he hit the Sally League in 2007, his .426 slugging percentage was still a very mild discouragement. Still, it was easy to keep the faith in Rowell, whose 6'5" frame promises to deliver power at some point.
The question now might be if he'll ever deliver anything more than an eventual home run stroke. Let's not sugar coat it. We're talking about the ninth overall pick of the 2006 draft, and at 19, he's being dominated at High-A ball. Yes, he's only 19, and no, that's no reason to give up on him or even get close to giving up.
But is his putrid .230/.289/.360 line something that raises a red flag? Absolutely, it is. He missed a lot of April with a leg injury, then hit .253/.310/.396 in May. Hey, maybe just a late start, right? Give him time.
June was atrocious: .185/.241/.296. The good news is that through eight games in July, he's starting to heat up, at a .296/.367/.519 clip over eight games. Keep it "rowell"-in', Bill. Ahhhhhahahahaha!
Seriously, though.
3. Radhames Liz, RHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)
Liz has been made a necessity in Baltimore thanks to the injuries to Adam Loewen and the farewell 10-game disaster that was undoubtedly Steve Trachsel's last time in a baseball uniform that doesn't have him coaching little league or something.
He's not THAT young -- he turned 25 in June. His 11 starts in Norfolk went OK (4.05 ERA in 60 innings with a good K-rate), but he's clearly not there yet as a guy who's going to contribute positive results to a major league rotation. The stuff is good, but he leaves pitches up and has real control problems (shocker for an O's prospect).
Totally Rad (seriously, watch that video) still has real promise, because a good arm's a good arm, and at least he doesn't get hurt all the time. He's got gnarly potential. But what's with all the jogging? Can't he just learn magic and skip the aerobics?
Is Rick Kranitz, in fact, Zeb? Either way, I think Kranitz is totally decent.
Facts are facts, and fact is, Nolan Reimold looks like a stoner. The kind that says "ganja green" and buys Hendrix shirts at Target.
His overall numbers are solid, at .286/.359/.500, and they are also hampered by a dismal April where he hit just .232/.324/.347. Reimold's ceiling might not be all that high -- I'm starting to think he'll end up sort of like Luke Scott, but a right-handed bat with more injury problems. He had a torrid May (.312/.414/.606, 6 HR), and he's on a rampage so far in July (.382/.389/.824, 4 HR).
In a perfect world, we finally see Nolan in Baltimore this year, too, and we see him for good starting next spring. There's no reason to not. Let's hope he can stay healthy this season, which has been his biggest problem to date. With the way Rowell's swinging right now, I think Reimold should be bumped up to No. 2 positional prospect.
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Frederick
The 22-year old TCU product that dropped in the draft and was a mild money gamble by the O's is paying off. See, between Wieters and Arrieta, is dealing with Scott Boras really all that bad? He's got good clients!
Arrieta is a Carolina League All-Star with a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, with 108 strikeouts in 101.1 innings pitched. Not bad at all, eh?
He did have a rough June, missing a couple starts and posting a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings, but he dominated in April and May and his last two starts have been back to the general overpowering of High-A hitters. A bump up may soon be in the making here, too.
If anyone ever gives this guy the "Jake the Snake" nickname, I'm going to barf. Enough with that already. The world has seen enough Jakes the Snakes.
Chris Tillman was serious when that photo is taken, and he's serious about striking fools out. With 87 whiffs in 83.2 innings at Bowie so far this season, he's sporting a 7-2 record and 3.12 ERA.
While his line might not look overly impressive -- good K-rate, but not eye-popping, good ERA but not dominant, decent but unexciting WHIP (1.31) -- you have to remember that Tillman turned 20 in April. This dude can't even go buy beer yet, and he's more than holding his own in Double-A, which in a lot of instances these days is the last step before the majors.
There's also almost no way he's fully grown into his body yet. At 6'5", he's listed at 195 pounds. He'll pack on at least 20 more before he's matured.
If we'd gotten nothing back besides Adam Jones and Tillman in the Bedard trade, it would stand right now as a first-class fleecing. While E.B. Farnum struggles mightily just to keep his head above water with the terrible Mariners, we've got a young center fielder with tremendous upside and a 20-year old that's working it in Double-A ball. Plus, we got MORE out of them. God. I genuinely feel bad for their fans.
7. Garrett Olson, LHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)
When Olson came up in 2007, he was No. 57, an obvious fill-in who would be back down as soon as his services were no longer necessary. His call-up this year came as No. 18, a guy who was taking a spot in the rotation. There's a lot to be said for numbers, even past spring training.
Olson's not been awesome or anything, at 5.65/1.57. Like Liz, he's suspceptible to getting lit right up on any night, which makes the nights where he looks smooth and effective easy to forget. He's 24, so he's still learning on the job, really.
But you can say this for Olson over Loewen: at least you know he'll be there every fifth day. While Loewen's debacle of a 2008 season is most likely over after two trips to the disabled list, Olson continues to ply his trade on the big stage, and it looks like he's here to stay for now. He was never supposed to be an ace or anything, most likely panning out to a No. 4 starter, or a No. 3 in good years.
The '08 Orioles, however, have gotten something very valuable from him. Innings. Innings that Mr. Major League Contract can't deliver. Loewen Replacement will be a position unto itself as long as Adam is an Oriole.
Spoone has made just nine starts, missing all of May and a portion of both April and June. And the starts he has made haven't been his best.
In those nine injury-affected outings, he's gone 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and ugly 1.61 WHIP. But the really worrisome thing about his numbers is they aren't exactly out of the norm. Remember, Spoone's 2007 was considered a major step up. Everything improved dramatically. Right now, he's just pitching almost exactly like he did in 2005-06.
Let's just look at 2006-08, and you'll see what I mean:
| Year | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 8.23 | 5.58 | 6.28 | 1.53 |
| 2007 | 6.39 | 3.97 | 7.88 | 1.15 |
| 2008 | 8.71 | 5.88 | 6.97 | 1.62 |
The one rate that has spiked his his homers per nine. In 2006, he was at .35, last year at .47. This year, .87. That's a major difference. But I am back to questioning whether a guy named Chorye Spoone can be a good big league ballplayer. Tim Spooneybarger didn't make it -- in fact, he's with Aberdeen, which I will admit to being totally psyched on.
Butler currently sits on the Shorebirds DL with tendinitis in his left arm. Not a great sign, but he's only 20. It would also help to explain what was a pretty lackluster performance for a genuine prospect (not a great one, but a real one) at Low-A.
In 55 innings prior to the injury, Butler had put up a 4.42 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 7.2 K/9. What is VERY encouraging is his outstanding BB rate, as he put just 11 on base via the free pass. Not too shabby at all there.
Butler was one of the other two pickups in the Bedard deal, and even though he's out of action right now, hey...we win again.
I would like to find out if he has an abnormally high singing voice so I know whether or not I can start calling him Tony Soprano.
10. Hayden Penn, RHP, Norfolk
These slight disappointments are sent to prepare
For what may hereafter befall;
For seasons of real disappointment and care,
Which commonly happen to all.
-- Jane Taylor, 'The Disappointment'
If it wasn't quite time to forget about Hayden Penn as any real part of the Orioles future in 2007, it certainly looks like it is now. The guy just isn't getting hitters out in Triple-A ball.
It also appears now that a great opportunity was missed to trade Penn in 2005 or even 2006, because he'd be a throw-in piece for anything worthwhile anymore.
This isn't really an injury case, though he missed much of 2007; or a bad luck case, or anything else. This is just a case of a guy who's not very good. I wanted to hold out hope for Hayden, but it's probably time to give up the ghost. He's a minor league gap-filler.
11. Tim Bascom, RHP, Frederick
I'm going to just go ahead and admit that my 10 and 11 guys are screwing the pooch a little bit so far in 2008. I was probably overrating Feel Good Story Bascom a little to begin with, and he's doing me no favors now.
THAT SAID...
He missed all of April and made just two starts in May, so he got a late jump and is probably still working to getting up to 100% on the field. Still, though, the numbers are the numbers. At 23, he's got a 4.89 ERA at Frederick. Not good. His K-to-BB is about 1.5-to-1. Not good. He's getting tagged by hitters. Not good.
12. Troy Patton, LHP, A Rehab Center
We got Patton hurt, he was hurt when I made the list, and he's hurt now.
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B, Frederick
His May and June numbers look outstanding, but that's only because you might have looked at his awful April beforehand. He's raking in July, but it's July 10th, so we'll wait and see. An .800ish OPS at Frederick for a first baseman just isn't going to cut it as far as climbing the ladder goes. You can get that in a good year from Chris Vinyard.
Also, to those that have tried to sell Vinyard to me, can we declare that whole bit over? He's OPSing .698. He's got a brick for a glove, and designated hitters that slug .355 are a detriment at any level.
Snyder remains one of my favorite players in the system, but it'd take a fool to not admit he's rather failing thus far. A whole lot of things have gone wrong in his pro career. He turns 22 in November, so it's time to get a move on.
Tell him, Red. Come on, Brandon. Make it. See your friend, and shake his hand.
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Frederick
2006 with Delmarva went swimmingly for Erbe at age 18. At 19, 2007 in Frederick was a disaster, as he put up a 6.26 ERA and all kinds of things were deemed in need of a tune-up.
2008 has been a mixed bag. He dominated in April (2.73 ERA) and June (2.32 ERA), but was treated like steel at the mighty hands of John Henry in May (7.07 ERA). He's started using his slider as an out pitch, and worked away from his high school curveball. The guy has a serious arm, with big heat, and is another tall pitcher with a still-lanky build.
He's 20, and has shown vast improvement this year. While the overall numbers might not be stunning, they miss the point. He's made a massive turnaround from a year that might have ruined a lot of hyped young pitchers, and even came back in June from a terrible month of May. He's moving back up.
15. David Hernandez, RHP, Bowie
Just might be time to give the sleeper prospect of the organization a serious look.
Simple reasoning, really. Hernandez's power arm might not get him by as a starter in the majors, but I suspect he might soon be able to do a fair Jim Johnson impersonation were the need to arise to have an extra arm in the bullpen. He's fanning 10.13 per nine innings this season, which is consistent with previous numbers. His ERA is way down, he's got his WHIP down at 1.25, and his fastball/slider combo is the real deal, though he doesn't have a whole lot else.
The downside is what I already said, he might not make it as a starter given his lack of secondary pitches. But the upside might be a shutdown power reliever, too. No rush, though, since he IS a sleeper.
Quickies on 16-20, because they'd all either fall off this list or not qualify anymore:
16. Pedro Beato, RHP, Frederick: He's trying to get by striking out about four per nine. It's not going to work. Beato's peripherals indicate bad things to come if he ever gets out of A-ball.
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B, Norfolk: It's taken until July, but Moore is finally hitting at Norfolk. There's also still zero excuse for his demotion in favor of the bumbling nimrods we've been putting at shortstop or a 100th pitcher. Costanzo's had a bit of a rough year, himself.
18. Matt Albers, RHP, DL: Uh ohhhh...
19. Randor Bierd, RHP, Rehab: RAN-DOOOOOR! was impressing before the injury. Here's looking forward to his return.
20. Bob McCrory, RHP, Norfolk: Will probably spend his life on the AAA-to-MLB train. Got smacked around and walked everyone in two-thirds of an inning of MLB work this year over two games. What about Bob?
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I don't think Wieters should be called up
Only if it’s in late August or September and the team is dead in the water, and it’s obvious to everyone that it’s just in order to give him some major league experience. He still needs to develop a confident throw to second. Game I saw with him in it, the other team tried to steal a base every inning. It was all right though, one CS and one CL. I don’t got the scorecard with me, but there was a passed ball, and I’m not certain if there was a throwing error to second (I might be thinking of ramon on Tuesday’s game).
And then as next summer starts, start him in AAA, ready to call up as soon as we need him.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on Jul 10, 2008 8:30 AM EDT 0 recs
Play it smart with Wieters
just like the Rays did with Longoria and the Reds did with Bruce. Why would you pull him up until you are fairly certain that you are going to compete. Once you pull him up that “MLB years of service” clock begins to tick so why not make sure that your ducks are in a row before even considering bringing him to Baltimore?
by patientoriolesfan on Jul 10, 2008 8:46 AM EDT 0 recs
Because that would mean Wieters murders minor league baseball until 2011.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 10, 2008 8:50 AM EDT
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give the guy a break
he had to say that. its in his name.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
by daveh873 on
Jul 10, 2008 9:20 AM EDT
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get the extra year
I agree with the orginal post to an extent. Keep Wieters in the minors for a few weeks next year. Just long enough to get the extra year out of him. His presence on the team next season isn’t going to make or break the team. Why waste time on him in a non-competitive year when you can get an extra year when we should be competitive.
by edsachs1 on
Jul 10, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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I don't mind that idea at all
It makes a lot of sense. But leaving him until they’re “ready to compete” is a really bad idea. Longoria happened to be ready for the year the Rays were ready to compete. Jay Bruce is playing for a team that is not ready to compete, anyway.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 10, 2008 7:11 PM EDT
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Markakis and Jones
both needed until almost the ASG to proved their mettle as MLB hitters. I’d say Wieters is up bhy May 1 next year.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on
Jul 11, 2008 12:33 AM EDT
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If he comes to Baltimore in 2009
And plays pretty well 9at 23 years old!), you couldn’t underestimate how much his value will be in trades. Young, quality catchers are IMPOSSIBLE to get in today’s market. A trade with Wieters would give us more and better prospects than Bedard did.
And for this Orioles team, no one is untradeable.
That is just one reason to play him 2009.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on Jul 10, 2008 9:09 AM EDT 0 recs
I really dont want that to happen though
just sayin’
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on
Jul 10, 2008 9:09 AM EDT
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untrue...
that is losing organization talk. true, this is a losing organization, but at some point, you have to have a goal.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 9:24 AM EDT
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This list illustrates why the O’s need to continue the rebuilding. Trade Sherrill and Huff ASAP. Shop around Danny and Roberts, etc. The O’s seriously need some depth.
They are hoping for a rotation along the lines of Guthrie/Matusz/Cabrera(?) and whoever rises up from Olson/Lize/Tillman/Arrieta. The cynical side of me (OK, it’s more like 90% of me) wonders if ANY of these pitching prospects will pan out. The O’s sure do seem to have a history of developing mediocrity even at the position they are supposed to have some depth in the minors.
Mora is horrible, Huff is probably at a peak, SS is even worse than 3B, 1B is very weak. A lot of guys are gone after 2009. Where are the replacements? They aren’t in the minors now.
Two trades, Bedard and Tejada, should only be the beginning of the franchise overhaul MacPhail promised. He knows the system is just as bad as he pronounced at the beginning of the season. If the O’s stand pat at the trading deadline, I’ll raise an eyebrow and start wondering if Peter Angelos is imposing some boundaries along the lines of trying to cobble together a .500+ team (forget an actually competitive team) ASAP.
by drj on Jul 10, 2008 9:23 AM EDT 0 recs
Tillman and Arrieta are different breeds than the Penn/Olson types, I think. Maybe. God, I hope.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 10, 2008 9:24 AM EDT
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There's no reason, at this point,
not to think that Arrieta and Tillman aren’t better. Arrieta looks like a guy who could surpass Guts if all goes right (when it comes to pitching, not in the hearts of the Orioles’ fans, of course) and Tillman is much more raw but seems to have better stuff than either Penn or Olson.
At least Olson looks like a useful back of the rotation guy who the O’s don’t have to pay much. There are much worse fates. Such as Penn’s…jeez, what the hell…what happened to that guy? I remember thinking when he came up in ‘05 that he could make a good starter with a little more seasoning. It must’ve been that mustache that he wasn’t serious about keeping.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jul 10, 2008 12:31 PM EDT
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A couple notes
Spoone is now back on the DL with “shoulder soreness”. The pitching depth is rapidly evaporating. Signing Matusz will help, but I think we’re going to see Andy target even more young pitching if he trades some vets at the deadline.
On the bright side, Randor is absolutely burninating the minors in his rehab stint with 17Ks in 9 IP. He’ll be back with the O’s shortly after the all-star break.
by dkdc on Jul 10, 2008 9:37 AM EDT 0 recs
according to roch...
kam mickolio just made his debut at norfolk. two innings of scoreless work.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 10:46 AM EDT
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Tillman
So what’s the story with this guy anyway? I check the box scores, I see his numbers, and I see a guy that’s really pitching well in a tough league for somebody his age. But then I listen to the radio, read scouting reports, and they all say that he’s a back of the rotation guy, probably a 4 or 5 and a 3rd starter at best, and that really doesn’t make sense to me. He throws low 90s, he’s big and has room to fill out… what’s the issue? Based on the numbers, I would think he has 1 or 2 potential, but the scouts don’t seem to think so. Any ideas?
by joet on Jul 10, 2008 10:39 AM EDT 0 recs
paging Billy Beane... paging Billy Beane
but seriously, “baseball scouts” often value the look and style of a player over their ability to deliver in the minor leagues. While scouting does have some value, minor league performance is way more telling, so don’t worry too much about the scouts and focus on minor league performance. Who the hell knows what a #3 starter looks like anyway, it’s like looking for an ideal 2nd violinist.
Focus on minor league numbers and don’t worry about what the scouts say. Beane did it and he had a book written about him.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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really?
on BP, kevin goldstein was saying that projecting success of minor league players based on stats isn’t entirely useful in and of itself.
case in point: tillman’s numbers from last year!
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 11:14 AM EDT
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Well...
I can see where WHIP would come in handy – wins and losses are obviously almost irrelevant. But WHIP is a real handy guide for how many guys a pitcher is putting on base.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on
Jul 10, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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I mean, people feel very differently on the subject
and as my moniker might imply, I prefer statistics to impressions, but scouts get it wrong regularly, knocking them out in the minor leagues is not a guarantee of success, but it sure as hell beats not doing well in the minors.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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Pitchers
I think stats are very important to looking at a prospect, but they are less important for pitchers. A pitcher is more likely than a hitter to have that one hole is his game that is holding up his development and preventing him from putting up good stats.
For example, take a starter with a plus fastball and curveball who is just starting to develop his changeup. He may get knocked around if hitters can sit on his fastball and foul off his curveball, but once he gets that changeup going, he’s got the ammo to keep hitters off-balance.
I also think age is less important to pitchers than hitters. Fastball velocity generally decreases as pitchers age, and many pitchers are as good as they are ever going to get by age 22. Most hitters follow a traditional aging curve where they peak at 25-30.
That said, stats and age vs competition still do matter for a pitcher, and Tillman has those in spades. Tillman’s scouting reports are not mixed, not uniformly negative, which suggests to me that his stuff is inconsistent. There are some scouts who think Tillman has top-of-the-rotation potential.
Add it all up, and Tillman is one of the best 10-15 pitching prospects in the game.
by dkdc on
Jul 10, 2008 12:04 PM EDT
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yeah
Tillman’s numbers from last year aren’t impressive unless you factor in the fact that he was at High-A in his second year of pro ball and pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly league. I also believe that he improved as he got more starts at High-A, which shows the ability to adjust to competition, which is crucial to be successful in the majors.
As for Tillman only being projected as a back of the rotation guy, thats not the consensus. Search tillman on this transcript from Baseball America.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2008/266119.html
by nittany lion on
Jul 10, 2008 12:31 PM EDT
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Reimold now!
If the O’s can flip guys such as Payton, Huff, and Millar, you’d think Reimold would be in a good position to take advantage.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Jul 10, 2008 12:32 PM EDT 0 recs
agreed!
and i think the analogy to luke scott is a good one.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 1:24 PM EDT
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This is actually a rather depressing list when I look at it
It’s still going to take a couple years before we get a bona fide strong set of prospects.
by math_geek on Jul 10, 2008 1:54 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m not even convinced they’ll go after a set of prospects.
Trading Tejada and Bedard were steps 1 and 2. Trading the next set of players are steps 3 and beyond. Of course a decent deal has to materialize, but if we see the O’s stand pat, I’ll consider this franchise to be pretty much what we’ve seen in the past. At this point, I’ll settle for lots of rumors concerning guys like Sherrill and Huff. Lord knows MacPhail will get all constipated if a deal nears with a “beloved” player.
by drj on
Jul 10, 2008 2:11 PM EDT
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I mean, I don't support trading guys just to trade them
Even when we got Bedard, it seemed to be a fair deal, it’s just that AJ was as good as advertised and Sherrill, Tillman and Butler were all better than advertised.
Trading beloved players just to trade them is obnoxious (I assume we are talking about Brian Roberts, as trading Markakis is rarely suggested seriously). Trading Roberts is more of a risk because 1) the team might go completely to shit without him and 2) He’s one of the biggest reasons to watch the Orioles right now. Hell, if we get a Bedard style package for him, then great … do it. But I wouldn’t trade Brian for a Tejada style package, as we’d just be letting ourselves get ripped off.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 2:25 PM EDT
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i'd take a "tejada style" package for bribob
as long as the talent is tied up in infie;ders intead of pitchers. sure, albers and patton are hurt, but the 4 guys we got (including luuuuuuke and sarfate) for tejada are all talented mofo’s. it’d be nice if 2 of them weren’t injured, but i think the FO kinda new about patton and albers, well, lets hope he can come back at all. still, talent’s talent. get a nice SS prospect instead of a couple of those pitchers and i damn sure would take it for bribob
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
by daveh873 on
Jul 10, 2008 3:00 PM EDT
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Troy Patton was the centerpiece of the trade
and he was a hurt prospect who was a B+ when healthy and a weak B+ at that
Albers is a nice role-player who will probably max out as a good setup man.
Luke Scott is a solid player that was nice 1) because he made up for some of Miggi’s lost offense, and 2) because he really gelled with the fans of Baltimore. However, he is not even a prospect, just a spare part Houston didn’t want to play.
Sarfate is pretty good, but again a bullpen guy (although he could be a closer)
Costanzo was a 3B that may never seriously make it out of AAA.
There isn’t a player among them who is the value-equivalent of a “nice SS prospect” in the bunch. This was a great deal for Tejada, but Roberts >>>> Tejada, and we’ve got a year and a half to deal him if he doesn’t sign.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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Beloved is anyone curently deemed a "contributor" to this team
Guys who’s absence might spoil some “clubhouse chemistry”.
Sherrill, Huff, Roberts, Cabrera come to mind.
by drj on Jul 10, 2008 2:32 PM EDT 0 recs
did you think McPhail would get upset about it?
or did you mean Angelos would get upset about it?
I understand your statement much better if you meant the second. Remember, we did manage to trade Tejada and Bedard. It doesn’t appear McPhail found a deal for Roberts that he liked.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 2:39 PM EDT
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More Angelos
No one can dissuade me from believing that Angelos had MacPhail walking on eggshells when shopping Roberts.
MacPhail has made comments about not wanting to disrupt the current club. I believe he knows the club is weak and ill-prepared for the future. The first half of the season surprised him as well as us. So why the “don’t disrupt what’s working comments”? Perhaps he’s playing his cards close to his chest. Or maybe Angelos and crew are thinking this franchise is close to just getting something that won’t lose more games than they win and are putting some pressure on MacPhail to make it happen. Perhaps MacPhail’s charter was to just get more wins than losses and that’s all he needs/wants to accomplish. Your guess is as good as mine. I’m looking for signs that the rebuilding will continue and damn the current losing for the new few seasons.
All I know is if this club doesn’t make moves to stock the farm system in July I’ll start assuming the long term health of the system is not a priority. Maybe it will ultimately come down to Tex saying “NO” to Angelos before he realizes this team will still suck in 2009 and beyond if they don’t continue to build the foundation.
by drj on
Jul 10, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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well, the early trades are fairly unusual anyways
so it’s hardly a surprise that the Orioles haven’t traded anybody off. Who knows what McPhail is working on, but I don’t really object to him refusing bad trades. However, we should be able to find takers for Huff and Sherrill. We may not be able to get rid of Payton or Razor, however.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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what annoys me about payton...
fucking cut him. almost anybody brought up to take his place will earn the prorated minimum and will probably produce better. i really can’t envision a scenario where they unload him w/o eating a little salary anyways.
someone might be silly enough to take millar. he’s cheap AND knows how to win!
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
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millar can't hit
but he draws a ton of walks and is an asset defensively. He could be traded, but we’d essentially need some contending team to lose their first baseman and want an adequate replacement.
by math_geek on
Jul 10, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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not really...
we just need a gm to think that his team “needs a winner,” sort of how the cubbies needed an innings eater and they got trax.
millar is the functional equivalent of sean casey or doug [alphabet] or “twilight ime” conine”. none of those guys are/were good enough in the last couple years that they should be starting anywhere, but, here we are.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 10, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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Payton has value still...sort of
The problem with trading Payton is they would lose their sub in center. If they can’t spell AJ what happens? I suppose bringing up Roberson or Redman would resolve that problem partly because Reimhold is not going to be able to cover any ground in center, but that’s still something to keep in mine.
by Dr Orpheus on
Jul 10, 2008 7:22 PM EDT
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Can Fiorentino play any center? He’s back in town.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 10, 2008 7:29 PM EDT
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Payton's basically the only OF sub we have
But, I think Redman could do basically the same thing Jay is doing right now, and for a lot less money.
by getxstoked on
Jul 10, 2008 11:05 PM EDT
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Billy Rowell
Rowell’s been a huge disappointment. I really felt this would be a breakout year for him. It especially hurts to see Jason Heyward of the Braves tearing up the SAL. Rowell was about the same age, and wasn’t nearly as impressive. I’ve heard Rowell has some attitude problems (very cocky). I think it might be a good idea to demote him down to Delmarva as sort of a wake-up call, to let him know he’s got to get his act together.
by edsachs1 on Jul 10, 2008 2:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Billy Rowell Pisses Me Off
The guy just keeps getting worse as he moves up the Orioles minor league system, but all we keep hearing is “He’s only 19!”
So what? He’s 19 years old and shows little sign of being any good at baseball. My parents’ next door neighbors have a 19 old kid, I bet he sucks at baseball too.
If this guy turns out to be a player, great. I’ll apologize to him personally, but I just don’t see how anyone can expect Billy Rowell will ever play a significant role for the Baltimore Orioles.
by yurizanow on Jul 10, 2008 3:21 PM EDT 0 recs
I’m feeling the same way, but keep it on the down low. I don’t want to get all negative on him.
19 is really young, but…he’s…not hitting.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 10, 2008 7:17 PM EDT
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Young and Crappy
Fixating on his age or his size as if he’s going to at some point become a good baseball player just because of those things is just wishful thinking.
When he actually shows some signs of competence, then I’ll pay attention, but I’m not holding my breath. He gets worse as he get promoted up the Orioles’ food chain, which I don’t get since he’s done nothing to deserve it after he left rookie ball. Why exactly should we expect that to change? Because he’s 19?
by yurizanow on
Jul 10, 2008 11:56 PM EDT
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Because 19 is still very much a development age. I’m not even disagreeing with you, but that’s why.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 11, 2008 12:01 AM EDT
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FFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCKKKKKKKKKK!!!
from SI article on tim lincecum:
“It frightens the chaw out of the cheeks of traditional baseball people that someone so lithe can throw 98 mph. The skittish Baltimore Orioles, picking ninth in the ‘06 draft, basically took him off their board—though by then Lincecum, a junior at Washington, was a two-time Pac-10 pitcher of the year who had struck out more batters than any other pitcher in conference history, including Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson and Mark Prior. “We took a high school hitter,” recalls then-Baltimore general manager Jim Duquette, referring to Bill Rowell, a third baseman who is hitting .225 in high A ball. “There was a feeling that [Lincecum] was short, not a real physical kid, and mechanically he was going to break down, that there was enough stress on his arm, elbow and shoulder. Our scouting department kind of pushed him down because of the medical aspect.”
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 11, 2008 5:19 PM EDT
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yeah I know
"There was a feeling that he was short, not a real physical kid, and mechanically he was going to break down, that there was enough stress on his arm, elbow and shoulder. Our scouting department kind of pushed him down because of the medical aspect."

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT
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uh huh...
coupled w/ the luck the team has had drafting big pitchers (loewen, stahl, hale, smith…penn?)
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 11, 2008 5:38 PM EDT
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how about another one, too?

It’s taken him eight years to do anything less than excellent.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 11, 2008 6:52 PM EDT
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But
if every Pedro and Roy, there are tons of thin and short pitchers who can’t handle the physical stress of pitching. Although I’m not sure if there’s a study looking at the relationship between size and durability. It makes sense that big bodied pitchers would be more durable but I’m not saying that the case.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on
Jul 12, 2008 1:05 AM EDT
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Not all of them have Lincecum’s arm. When a guy has that sort of stuff, is being 5’11” that big of a deal?
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 13, 2008 1:41 PM EDT
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Jake Arrieta
MILB.com has a nice profile article up on Jake, in preparation for the futures game.
He should be joining Wieters in Bowie before long, I’d expect.
by dkdc on Jul 11, 2008 11:15 AM EDT 0 recs









