The Orioles and star right fielder Nick Markakis engaged in negotiations for a contract extension in the past week, but those discussions halted Monday and likely will not be rekindled until after the season, according to several baseball sources.
Markakis, 24, who is considered the cornerstone of the team's rebuilding plan, is eligible for arbitration after the season and is under Orioles' contractual control through the 2011 season.
about 1 year ago
duck
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At first
I skimmed this and saw “Markakis” and “suspended” and my heart stopped. Oh well, no hurry just yet.
by Brotz13 on Jul 21, 2008 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
great
now thats what I want to hear. Its probably too late to sign him to a grady sizemore type of deal. Hes on the cusp of being a star. Even if he only marginally improves, hes looking at a massive contract when he hits the free agent market at age 27. Considering rocketing salaries, guys like Soriano and Vernon Wells, and Nick’s franchise cornerstone aura and good looks, he could be looking at a deal that could approach $100 million in total value. He needs to be locked up ASAP with a discount while the team can still get one.
by UMterp08 on Jul 21, 2008 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ll start to worry about this if Nick doesn’t get signed by the end of the off season. Until then, unless the Orioles are really doing something to screw him over, I’m not concerned.
"There is a value to breaking the string of losing seasons as an organization or as a franchise. But breaking that streak can’t come at the expense of doing what you need to do to get your franchise to the point where it can reach the postseason." ~Andy MacPhail
by Stacey on Jul 22, 2008 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bummer
Just give him Alex Rios money and get this over with.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jul 22, 2008 3:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alex Rios money won't get it done
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on Jul 22, 2008 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did the O's use Rios money as an example?
If that’s what they offered, it clearly didn’t get it done. Rios and Markakis are in the same ball park though. I’d bet Markakis has a bit more upside, so he’ll get paid more (probably closer to 15 mill/year). Maybe Markakis is waiting to see where contracts go this off season. If the O’s overpay for some free agents, it gives him a baseline and probably more leverage.
by drj on Jul 22, 2008 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rios
Rios money is a fair contract for Markakis. If the O’s offered him Rios money, I think they’ve made a fair and sincere effiort to keep Markakis long term. Of course, this issue should have been resolved last offseason.
Markakis is waiting to see where contracts go this off season. If the O’s overpay for some free agents, it gives him a baseline and probably more leverage.
Markakis still has 3 arb years left though so he’s not (completely) comparable to a free agent.
Wolf, wolf, wolf.
by birdman on Jul 22, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's miffed about last year and he has leverage as a decent player in a barren system
If the O’s throw out some big money, I doubt that will persuade him to lock into a longer term deal through his free agent years for significantly less. Not that I envision a big name free agent, but it doesn’t hurt Markakis to wait and see.
by drj on Jul 22, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the O's will need to pony up.
MacPhail gave the guy a 55K raise (400K to 455K last year, correct?). Markakis was miffed, but MacPhail made it clear that the hammer will swing the other way, in the player’s favor, next year. I hope this gets done in the off season.
by drj on Jul 22, 2008 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right move
Don’t rush this. This is only Nick’s 3rd year. The offseason is the right time to address this, hopefully the O’s can buy out at least 2 of his FA years.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jul 22, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sounds good to me
I’d try to tack on a couple option years, too:
2008 $5MM
2009 $8MM
2010 $10MM
2011 $12MM
2012 $12MM
2013 $15MM option ($1.5MM buyout)
2014 $15MM option ($1.5MM buyout)
That’s $50MM guaranteed, and $77MM if the O’s pick up both options. Throw in a few million as a signing bonus to get it done, if necessary.
by dkdc on Jul 22, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
Theres no chance of that deal happening. First off that only buys out one FA year, so its not that beneficial to the Orioles. And Markakis and his agent are smart enough to know that taking two option years in the prime of a career is foolish. At age 27/28 he’ll be looking for the biggest payday of his career, not going year-to-year on options.
Alex Rios money won’t get it done, so a good template here is the 8 year, $153.3 million contract extension that Miguel Cabrera signed this past off season. Talking career wise, Markakis is essentially a poor man’s Miggy Cabs. But due to to the fact that Markakis is a gold glove caliber outfielder and Cabrera is probably going to eat himself into a full time DH role within a few years, their values are closer than most would think. Both are the same age but Cabrera has two more years of service time on him. So if a blockbuster deal is to be done, it would probably look like a 7 year, $90-100 million dollar deal. And in a world where Torri Hunter and Vernon Wells are pulling down $18 million a year, I would say thats fair and realistic all factors considered.
by UMterp08 on Jul 22, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might be confused, but Markakis isn't really in the same league yet as Cabrera...
Cabrera is only 6 months older than Markakis, but has 3 times as many HRs and twice as many RBI. He’s only had one full season with less than 30 HRs, while Markakis has yet to reach 25. He’s had 4 straight years (soon to be 5) of 100+ RBI while Nick had 1 (unlikely he’ll get there this year unless he gets ridiculously hot). Cabrera has a 15 point higher batting average, a 14 point higher OBP, and a 65 point higher slugging percentage. So while Nicky is awesome and I want them to lock him up long term, I don’t think anybody would use Cabrera’s deal as a comparable. He’s just not nearly the slugger that Cabrera is and I don’t think anybody projects him to be.
by O'sFan21 on Jul 22, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i know
I referred to Markakis as a “poor man’s” Miguel Cabrera, which I think is a fair assessment. And thats why I pegged in my projected contract at 2/3’s the value of the one that Cabrera got, which again, I think is a decent guess. Of course this is pie in the sky type of stuff. But it sure is fun speculating.
by UMterp08 on Jul 22, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanley Ramirez is a better upside comp
He just got $70MM guaranteed.
$23.5MM for his three arb years, and $46.5MM for three free agent years.
My offer to Nick was:
$23MM for his three arb years, and $24MM for two free agent years, plus the options with buyouts.
Seems reasonable to me. No way should Nick get as much as Hanley, let alone more than Hanley.
by dkdc on Jul 22, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
I screwed up the years on my offer, which may be causing some confusion. My offer starts in 2009, and the second option year should be 2015.
by dkdc on Jul 22, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
alright that made more sense. Looks like we both agree on the fact that Nick would get a contract of about $10-12 million per year. I just don’t think he would take two option years. I think those two $15 million seasons would either have to be cut down to one option or have both be guaranteed. I just dont see a player like Markakis going year to year at that stage of his career.
by UMterp08 on Jul 22, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
I really like the multiple option years tacked on to the end. If there’s a buyout and the salaries are market rate for a star, there’s not much downside from Nick’s perspective.
The Rays have done this with most of their long term deals: Crawford, Baldelli, Shields, and Longoria. Longoria and Baldelli actually each have three option years.
So, some players like it.
by dkdc on Jul 22, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 23-24 million for the three arbitration years is more than fair.
If Cabrera stays healthy Markakis will be a substantially “poorer” version. Cabrera shouldn’t be in the conversation as a comparison. Ramirez undervalued himself with his contract. Longoria sure did. Markakis is not the player these guys are, but the O’s will pay for his free agent years. I’m guessing closer to 14 million. We’re all in the same ball park, but I think Markakis will extract all he can.
by drj on Jul 22, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard rumors that he's "on the down-low"
from multiple sources…
by oriolez on Jul 22, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why
would Markakis want to sign an extension, unless he gets grossly overpaid? At his age he is likely to get better and be near his peak the year before he hits free agency, meaning he could be in for a huge pay day if he allows himself to hit the open market.
The only reason why Nick would entertain signing with us long term at current market value would be security, and what reason does he have to believe that he will suffer a major injury or slump badly in the years leading up to free agency? How about there is very reason to believe that just the opposite will happen in both cases.
Nick knows he’s going to be embarassingly wealthy no matter what he does, so by not signing he is keeping his options open. Everyone around here is skeptical as to whether or not the Orioles rebuilding program is serious, so why wouldnt Nick be as well? By not signing long-term Nick can bail if the rebuilding stalls, and its doubtful that it will cost him a dime. More likely he’ll make more money by hitting free agency.
If the Orioles feel that signing him long-term is important, then they need to overpay. If Markakis wants some ridiculous 100 million dollar deal, we’re better off investing that in prospects and trading Nick. Sorry to say it, but unless he signs a reasonable extension or we contend soon I think we need to think about dealing him.
by nittany lion on Jul 22, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why sign? One word: Injury
By not signing a contract, he’s betting he won’t get injured. But if he takes a deal now, injuries no longer come into play – he gets his money. Every dollar he signs for is guaranteed to him the moment he signs.
Maybe he’s willing to take the chance that in 3 years, he will still be healthy and putting up the same numbers.
But maybe he won’t.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on Jul 22, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Nick probably knows Adam Loewen pretty well, so he should have a good idea of how quickly all that future earning potential can go to zero.
by dkdc on Jul 22, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apples to Oranges
Nick knows Loewen real well (i believe they were roommates in the minors and for awhile in B’more) but I don’t think you can compare the two.
Loewen has an injury history that could comprise a med school textbook. Has Nick had so much as a hangnail? He’s not even like J.D. Drew or Garciaparra—always pulling muscles and missing games with vertigo.
Sure, Nick is rolling them bones that he doesn’t get beaned in the head or injured in some sort of freak accident but how often has that happened ? And even if it did, its not like a pitcher getting a screw inserted into his pitching arm. If he breaks a bone, it heals as good as new.
Nick takes good care of himself and is smart (meaning he wont pull an Aaron Boone and get hurt away from baseball)
Unfortunately, his intelligence is also why he isnt hurrying to sign long term. He doesnt want to get stuck in a bad situation here unless hes making out like a bandit.
I’m not saying trade him right away, but maybe after next season. If we continue to show strides toward contention, Nick might become more receptive to a long term deal. If we dont show strides that just gives us more incentive to make a deal if Nick doesnt want to sign.
The only way I think this ends badly for us is if we let Nick walk, which would be a long way away if it happens.
by nittany lion on Jul 22, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody wants a contract man. Nobody wants to go year to year making what he's making now...
When he could be locked in long-term with a guaranteed contract that protects him against injuries, extended slumps, anything that could threaten his ability to make a ton of money on the free agent market. Lots of things can happen between now and when he is a free agent. Let’s say he holds off and has one more good year and then has a year where he’s playing through injuries or the league finds a hole in his swing and he doesn’t correct it right away – it could cut his free agent value in half. Bottom line is when you’re young and playing well you want your organization to lock you up with a nice contract. The list of players that have had 3 good years and then disappeared is quite long – much better to cash in now and not have to worry about finances and just concentrate on getting better.
by O'sFan21 on Jul 23, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
Nick will hit arbitration after this season. It’s a lock he will make millions starting this offseason, regardless of what he decides to do in extension negotiations.
by nittany lion on Jul 23, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this
Unless the O’s are seriously lowballing him, I can’t think of a reason Nick wouldn’t take guaranteed money for a number of years. If the Orioles give him a six year contract he’ll be out of it when he’s 30, which is prime time for one more big contract for him.
"There is a value to breaking the string of losing seasons as an organization or as a franchise. But breaking that streak can’t come at the expense of doing what you need to do to get your franchise to the point where it can reach the postseason." ~Andy MacPhail
by Stacey on Jul 23, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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