Orioles VORP numbers

Just for kicks, since I looked over the catchers, here's a look at the VORP numbers for all the O's.

If you're still unfamiliar with what, exactly, VORP is, then here's a quick primer:

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Player Pos VORP
Brian Roberts 2B 28.5
Aubrey Huff DH 25.5
Nick Markakis RF 23.8
Luke Scott LF 17.0
Adam Jones CF 7.3
Kevin Millar 1B 4.7
Ramon Hernandez C 1.3
Alex Cintron SS 0.8
Jay Payton LF/CF -0.3
Brandon Fahey SS -0.4
Luis Hernandez SS -2.1
Guillermo Quiroz C -2.5
Melvin Mora 3B -5.4
Freddie Bynum SS -8.4

Roberts, Huff and Markakis have unquestionably been the three keys to the team's success offensively. In 2007, these same three players posted VORP numbers of 48.6, 15.8 and 38.4, respectively. Roberts' career-best mark was 62.0 in 2005, and he's on pace to wind up somewhere between that number and what he did last year. Huff is way up over last year -- which he should be, considering he's already hit more homers than he did in all of 2007. Markakis is Markakis.

The big disappointments start with Mora, who has become a complete detriment to the team offensively. It's been a couple years since he was making a real difference, anyway, but this is a new level of crap. He was at 33.5 in 2005, but has put up totals of 8.9 and 13.4 the last two seasons. If he can rebound up to that level it'll be a minor miracle. He's been terrible.

The shortstops have been led by Cintron's nifty 0.8, which is the only positive score of the bunch. Bynum has been a disaster, and Hernandez was every bit as inept at the plate as advertised, really. This is a big step down from Miguel Tejada's disappointing 31.8 in 2007, which was hampered by injuries. PECOTA's seven-year forecast doesn't have Miggi reaching these levels of suck until 2013, but they also never updated it for his adjusted age, so maybe a couple years before that. Tejada, for the record, is currently at 17.1, which makes the trade look fine for us after the age debacle and the fact that Luke Scott is contributing.

Elsewhere, Kevin Millar continues his slow, entertaining plod toward retirement.

And the pitchers:

Player Role VORP
Jim Johnson RP 21.7
Jeremy Guthrie SP 19.9
Daniel Cabrera SP 13.7
Lance Cormier RP 9.0
Matt Albers RP 7.8
Dennis Sarfate RP 7.2
George Sherrill CL 6.8
Randor Bierd RP 4.8
Chad Bradford RP 2.3
Garrett Olson SP 1.6
Brian Burres SP 1.4
Jamie Walker RP 0.6
Radhames Liz SP 0.0
Ryan Bukvich RP -0.8
Greg Aquino RP -3.7
Adam Loewen SP/RP -6.9
Steve Trachsel SP -17.2

Jim Johnson wouldn't have been in my top 15 choices to be the Orioles pitching VORP leader on July 5 (the date that this data was updated), but there he is.

Sherrill's 6.8 might seem low, but it's really sort of a testament to how non-elite George has been. He has a lot of saves because we play a lot of close games. He's done a damn fine job as the closer, about as good as you could expect. But he gives up too many big flies and his walk rate isn't exactly inspiring for a closer. There are several closers in the league that are better than Sherrill, and a whole lot of guys around the league that could do the job he's doing with similar results. He's absolutely perfect trade material, with a counting stat that inflates his actual value. I love the guy and he's been a-OK by me, but this is the sort of player that this sort of team really ought to trade.

Guthrie put up a 38.2 last year -- he's on his way to being in that area again. He's a hell of a pitcher. Cabrera might not be exciting anyone of late (save for that last start), but this has been a pretty nice bounce-back year for him all in all. Last year, his VORP was a slimy 2.2.

The bullpen contributions from Johnson, Albers, Sherrill, Sarfate and Cormier have been huge. Poor Steve Trachsel was on his way to an historically awful season before getting cut.

Probably nothing you wouldn't expect, just reaffirmations of the good, bad and Mora.

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