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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Orioles VORP numbers

Just for kicks, since I looked over the catchers, here's a look at the VORP numbers for all the O's.

If you're still unfamiliar with what, exactly, VORP is, then here's a quick primer:

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Player Pos VORP
Brian Roberts 2B 28.5
Aubrey Huff DH 25.5
Nick Markakis RF 23.8
Luke Scott LF 17.0
Adam Jones CF 7.3
Kevin Millar 1B 4.7
Ramon Hernandez C 1.3
Alex Cintron SS 0.8
Jay Payton LF/CF -0.3
Brandon Fahey SS -0.4
Luis Hernandez SS -2.1
Guillermo Quiroz C -2.5
Melvin Mora 3B -5.4
Freddie Bynum SS -8.4

Roberts, Huff and Markakis have unquestionably been the three keys to the team's success offensively. In 2007, these same three players posted VORP numbers of 48.6, 15.8 and 38.4, respectively. Roberts' career-best mark was 62.0 in 2005, and he's on pace to wind up somewhere between that number and what he did last year. Huff is way up over last year -- which he should be, considering he's already hit more homers than he did in all of 2007. Markakis is Markakis.

The big disappointments start with Mora, who has become a complete detriment to the team offensively. It's been a couple years since he was making a real difference, anyway, but this is a new level of crap. He was at 33.5 in 2005, but has put up totals of 8.9 and 13.4 the last two seasons. If he can rebound up to that level it'll be a minor miracle. He's been terrible.

The shortstops have been led by Cintron's nifty 0.8, which is the only positive score of the bunch. Bynum has been a disaster, and Hernandez was every bit as inept at the plate as advertised, really. This is a big step down from Miguel Tejada's disappointing 31.8 in 2007, which was hampered by injuries. PECOTA's seven-year forecast doesn't have Miggi reaching these levels of suck until 2013, but they also never updated it for his adjusted age, so maybe a couple years before that. Tejada, for the record, is currently at 17.1, which makes the trade look fine for us after the age debacle and the fact that Luke Scott is contributing.

Elsewhere, Kevin Millar continues his slow, entertaining plod toward retirement.

And the pitchers:

Player Role VORP
Jim Johnson RP 21.7
Jeremy Guthrie SP 19.9
Daniel Cabrera SP 13.7
Lance Cormier RP 9.0
Matt Albers RP 7.8
Dennis Sarfate RP 7.2
George Sherrill CL 6.8
Randor Bierd RP 4.8
Chad Bradford RP 2.3
Garrett Olson SP 1.6
Brian Burres SP 1.4
Jamie Walker RP 0.6
Radhames Liz SP 0.0
Ryan Bukvich RP -0.8
Greg Aquino RP -3.7
Adam Loewen SP/RP -6.9
Steve Trachsel SP -17.2

Jim Johnson wouldn't have been in my top 15 choices to be the Orioles pitching VORP leader on July 5 (the date that this data was updated), but there he is.

Sherrill's 6.8 might seem low, but it's really sort of a testament to how non-elite George has been. He has a lot of saves because we play a lot of close games. He's done a damn fine job as the closer, about as good as you could expect. But he gives up too many big flies and his walk rate isn't exactly inspiring for a closer. There are several closers in the league that are better than Sherrill, and a whole lot of guys around the league that could do the job he's doing with similar results. He's absolutely perfect trade material, with a counting stat that inflates his actual value. I love the guy and he's been a-OK by me, but this is the sort of player that this sort of team really ought to trade.

Guthrie put up a 38.2 last year -- he's on his way to being in that area again. He's a hell of a pitcher. Cabrera might not be exciting anyone of late (save for that last start), but this has been a pretty nice bounce-back year for him all in all. Last year, his VORP was a slimy 2.2.

The bullpen contributions from Johnson, Albers, Sherrill, Sarfate and Cormier have been huge. Poor Steve Trachsel was on his way to an historically awful season before getting cut.

Probably nothing you wouldn't expect, just reaffirmations of the good, bad and Mora.

Comment 9 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I said it in a fanpost

But I’ll say it here, too. Huff is the most important trade we can make. This year is an aberration. I didn’t think there was any way we were getting his contract off the books for next year, and now we have a prime opportunity to do that and actually get something in return. If we can trade Sherrill for a good package, I’m all for that too, but I don’t find it as urgent since he’s cheap.

by punkrawka on Jul 7, 2008 5:46 AM EDT reply actions  

A negative number

Infers that they are performing worse than any AAAA player or player off the waiver wire would be expected to play. So thank you Melvin Mora.
Maybe if Jay Payton looked at stats like this he would understand why he isn’t a regular in the major leagues.

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2008 8:17 AM EDT reply actions  

well

If he looked at this particular set of stats, he’d learn third base.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by Scott Christ on Jul 7, 2008 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

There's an idea....

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Jul 7, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

explain?

How does the stat scale work? I’d assumed that VORP would mean that half the MLB players at that position are negative and half are positive?

by zknower on Jul 7, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

the key word is replacement player

With a replacement player being defined as somebody who is openly available on the waiver wire (Cintron) or a decent AAA replacement. Therefore most starting players will have a positive number and to have a negative number means that you should keep your bags packed and be ready to leave at any moment because you are easily replaceable.

Also the unit used is runs created (if you want wins divide by ten.)

Two other things to note is that really good players are far more valuable than average players (since they only give modest upgrades over replacement players) and that playing time effects your VORP (ex. 30 in 80 games is better than 40 in 140 games).

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

and yes

I know replacement player is actually two words.

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 7, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

fwiw...

adam jones in june: .323/.349/.455; july: .409/.458/.545

markakis in june: .339/.438./.514; in july: .423/.423/.692

ah, the future.

foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08

by j.q. higgins on Jul 7, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

JJ is the man

Have some more stats.
BAA: .180. vs RH: .157, vs LH: .208, RISP: .200, w/ROB: .155
SLGA: .186 OPSA: .456

Birdland, even.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Jul 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT reply actions  

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