Orioles VORP numbers
Just for kicks, since I looked over the catchers, here's a look at the VORP numbers for all the O's.
If you're still unfamiliar with what, exactly, VORP is, then here's a quick primer:
Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
| Player | Pos | VORP |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Roberts | 2B | 28.5 |
| Aubrey Huff | DH | 25.5 |
| Nick Markakis | RF | 23.8 |
| Luke Scott | LF | 17.0 |
| Adam Jones | CF | 7.3 |
| Kevin Millar | 1B | 4.7 |
| Ramon Hernandez | C | 1.3 |
| Alex Cintron | SS | 0.8 |
| Jay Payton | LF/CF | -0.3 |
| Brandon Fahey | SS | -0.4 |
| Luis Hernandez | SS | -2.1 |
| Guillermo Quiroz | C | -2.5 |
| Melvin Mora | 3B | -5.4 |
| Freddie Bynum | SS | -8.4 |
Roberts, Huff and Markakis have unquestionably been the three keys to the team's success offensively. In 2007, these same three players posted VORP numbers of 48.6, 15.8 and 38.4, respectively. Roberts' career-best mark was 62.0 in 2005, and he's on pace to wind up somewhere between that number and what he did last year. Huff is way up over last year -- which he should be, considering he's already hit more homers than he did in all of 2007. Markakis is Markakis.
The big disappointments start with Mora, who has become a complete detriment to the team offensively. It's been a couple years since he was making a real difference, anyway, but this is a new level of crap. He was at 33.5 in 2005, but has put up totals of 8.9 and 13.4 the last two seasons. If he can rebound up to that level it'll be a minor miracle. He's been terrible.
The shortstops have been led by Cintron's nifty 0.8, which is the only positive score of the bunch. Bynum has been a disaster, and Hernandez was every bit as inept at the plate as advertised, really. This is a big step down from Miguel Tejada's disappointing 31.8 in 2007, which was hampered by injuries. PECOTA's seven-year forecast doesn't have Miggi reaching these levels of suck until 2013, but they also never updated it for his adjusted age, so maybe a couple years before that. Tejada, for the record, is currently at 17.1, which makes the trade look fine for us after the age debacle and the fact that Luke Scott is contributing.
Elsewhere, Kevin Millar continues his slow, entertaining plod toward retirement.
And the pitchers:
| Player | Role | VORP |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Johnson | RP | 21.7 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | SP | 19.9 |
| Daniel Cabrera | SP | 13.7 |
| Lance Cormier | RP | 9.0 |
| Matt Albers | RP | 7.8 |
| Dennis Sarfate | RP | 7.2 |
| George Sherrill | CL | 6.8 |
| Randor Bierd | RP | 4.8 |
| Chad Bradford | RP | 2.3 |
| Garrett Olson | SP | 1.6 |
| Brian Burres | SP | 1.4 |
| Jamie Walker | RP | 0.6 |
| Radhames Liz | SP | 0.0 |
| Ryan Bukvich | RP | -0.8 |
| Greg Aquino | RP | -3.7 |
| Adam Loewen | SP/RP | -6.9 |
| Steve Trachsel | SP | -17.2 |
Jim Johnson wouldn't have been in my top 15 choices to be the Orioles pitching VORP leader on July 5 (the date that this data was updated), but there he is.
Sherrill's 6.8 might seem low, but it's really sort of a testament to how non-elite George has been. He has a lot of saves because we play a lot of close games. He's done a damn fine job as the closer, about as good as you could expect. But he gives up too many big flies and his walk rate isn't exactly inspiring for a closer. There are several closers in the league that are better than Sherrill, and a whole lot of guys around the league that could do the job he's doing with similar results. He's absolutely perfect trade material, with a counting stat that inflates his actual value. I love the guy and he's been a-OK by me, but this is the sort of player that this sort of team really ought to trade.
Guthrie put up a 38.2 last year -- he's on his way to being in that area again. He's a hell of a pitcher. Cabrera might not be exciting anyone of late (save for that last start), but this has been a pretty nice bounce-back year for him all in all. Last year, his VORP was a slimy 2.2.
The bullpen contributions from Johnson, Albers, Sherrill, Sarfate and Cormier have been huge. Poor Steve Trachsel was on his way to an historically awful season before getting cut.
Probably nothing you wouldn't expect, just reaffirmations of the good, bad and Mora.
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I said it in a fanpost
But I’ll say it here, too. Huff is the most important trade we can make. This year is an aberration. I didn’t think there was any way we were getting his contract off the books for next year, and now we have a prime opportunity to do that and actually get something in return. If we can trade Sherrill for a good package, I’m all for that too, but I don’t find it as urgent since he’s cheap.
by punkrawka on
Jul 7, 2008 5:46 AM EDT
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A negative number
Infers that they are performing worse than any AAAA player or player off the waiver wire would be expected to play. So thank you Melvin Mora.
Maybe if Jay Payton looked at stats like this he would understand why he isn’t a regular in the major leagues.
by Reddrummer9187 on
Jul 7, 2008 8:17 AM EDT
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well
If he looked at this particular set of stats, he’d learn third base.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by SC on
Jul 7, 2008 8:53 AM EDT
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There's an idea....
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
by duck on
Jul 7, 2008 9:38 AM EDT
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explain?
How does the stat scale work? I’d assumed that VORP would mean that half the MLB players at that position are negative and half are positive?
by zknower on
Jul 7, 2008 9:54 AM EDT
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the key word is replacement player
With a replacement player being defined as somebody who is openly available on the waiver wire (Cintron) or a decent AAA replacement. Therefore most starting players will have a positive number and to have a negative number means that you should keep your bags packed and be ready to leave at any moment because you are easily replaceable.
Also the unit used is runs created (if you want wins divide by ten.)
Two other things to note is that really good players are far more valuable than average players (since they only give modest upgrades over replacement players) and that playing time effects your VORP (ex. 30 in 80 games is better than 40 in 140 games).
by Reddrummer9187 on
Jul 7, 2008 10:10 AM EDT
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and yes
I know replacement player is actually two words.
by Reddrummer9187 on
Jul 7, 2008 10:10 AM EDT
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fwiw...
adam jones in june: .323/.349/.455; july: .409/.458/.545
markakis in june: .339/.438./.514; in july: .423/.423/.692
ah, the future.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on
Jul 7, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
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JJ is the man
Have some more stats.
BAA: .180. vs RH: .157, vs LH: .208, RISP: .200, w/ROB: .155
SLGA: .186 OPSA: .456
Birdland, even.
Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.
by CoachOfEarl on
Jul 7, 2008 5:48 PM EDT
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