Great post on "lucky" hitters

by math_geek on Jul 8, 2008 2:11 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

Over on lookout landing, they keep tons of statistical information, and this particular post caught my attention.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/7/7/566526/unlucky-hitters#comments

The way they measure "lucky" hitting is by comparing someone's line-drive percentage to their BABIP. The average luck factor = BABIP - LD% = 11. This relies on the knowledge that Fly balls and ground balls both have about a 90% fielding percentage, while line drives have a 30% fielding percentage (although I'm not sure how they get the number 11 from those numbers) so a player that hits more line drives should get more hits.

As this pertains to the Orioles, Ramon Hernandez has been one of the unluckiest hitters this season, with a LD% of 22.2% and a BABIP of .257, giving a luck factor of .035. This more or less confirms what we already suspected about Ramon, and hopefully he'll continue his improved prouduction through the second half.
The second unlucky Oriole is ... Melvin Mora! With a LD% of 19 and a BABIP of .243, he has been getting an ugly 5.3 luck factor, which might have something to do with his terrible season. Hopefully we can expect his numbers to improve during the second half as well.

As for lucky hitters, we have Adam Jones, who has an LD% of only 17.9% and a BABIP of .356! I suppose this means that he won't be likely to keep up his performance during the second half, but that might be mitigated by the fact that he has generally been improving as a hitter this season. In addition, I would assume being fast as hell also increases your BABIP.

As a side note, all-star phony Jason Varitek is also one of the luckiest hitters in baseball. Sure, his BABIP is only .275, but his LD% is a paltry 12.10% That is terriible folks. The only current Oriole with a lower LD% is Guillermo Quiroz, with and LD% of 11.5%. Incredible.

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um...

"Jeremy Guthrie’s funny. Sneaky funny. Smart funny. Stanford funny."
-Kevbo

by dayzd toe on Jul 8, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Again

Once again, thanks to arcane statistical references, I can make a geeky RPG reference. Luck gets a +3 modifier if you’re a gnomish rogue.

That may or may not be true, but it’s gotta be close. Ask the D&D crowd.

by blawk359 on Jul 8, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's AD&D, 4th editon, thank you very much....

new in 2008, and luck has been completely legislated out of the Dungeon Master’s Guide. So people tell me.

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Jul 8, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remedial

I haven’t been upgraded to Advanced by my DM. I’ll have to take your word for it, duck.

by blawk359 on Jul 8, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Jul 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, AD&D was after the 1st edition rules

Everything was AD&D after the release of the Expert D&D set in 1981. AD&D was actually first released in 1977. Not that I, you know, played or anything like that…

The AD&D books were first published between 1977 and 1979.

by duck on Jul 8, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is what I meant when I said that Ramon has been really hard luck this season and his numbers don’t reflect the way he’s literally hit the ball. It’s also why I think he’ll have a nice second half if he stays off the DL.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Jul 8, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if he stays off the DL

Which he should if Quiroz gets some more AB’s-which he should

"Jeremy Guthrie’s funny. Sneaky funny. Smart funny. Stanford funny."
-Kevbo

by dayzd toe on Jul 8, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't stand

his demeanor. He always looks like he is moping around, shrugging his shoulders, and generally not trying very hard. I know he’s hit the ball pretty hard most of the year but there is only room for one Melvin Mora on every team.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Jul 9, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SC was talking about Ramon,,,

Mora always looks miserable at the plate, but I don’t know if I can say he doesn’t seem to try very hard. Sure he’s spacy, but those ridiculous defensive plays (the good ones) at times should show that he genuinely puts effort into the game. My impression is that he takes it all so seriously.

by math_geek on Jul 9, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused...

I’m saying that Razor acts like Mora. Pouty and disinterested a lot of them time. I know he has hit the ball solidly for a lot of the year and made his fair share of line drive outs but I’m tiring of what I perceive to be pouting by him (Razor).

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Jul 9, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ahhh, gotcha

Razors pathetic defense bothers me, and he definitely doesn’t put in effort all of the time defensively (or even half of the time), so I can agree with you there.

I dunno about the pouting. In football, Trevor Pryce is a moody moody guy on my Ravens, and he doesn’t bother me, he loves football, he’s just a moody person, so I suppose the “pouting” doesn’t bother me that much. Not everyone can be sunshine and roses.

by math_geek on Jul 9, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pryce bitched up a storm

about how the press was gushing about a mini-camp fight this spring. “Let’s see if they got any fight in them during games” was the gyst of what he said at the time.

Definitely doesn’t sound like the life of the party, but I’d sure as hell want him on my D-line when he’s healthy.

by duck on Jul 9, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

I really wish Tek hadn’t got the All-Star spot. I’m just kind of embarrassed that so many of my fellow PHN people voted for him. He’s probably jumped the shark for good this time.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 9, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs