Especially after his World Baseball Classic performance—everybody had him down as the Next Big Thing. As far as polish goes, I’d say Loewen had more tools coming in than >90% of decent pitching prospects, including a range of plus pitches and smarts—he was far from just a guy who could throw hard and blow away college hitters. All I’m saying, really, is that these things are inherently unpredictable, even taking obvious talent into consideration, and a draft pick, any draft pick, remains an unproven prospect until, well, proven. Loewen was cited to prove that point, not to say that Matusz is particularly like Lowen. That being the case, a guy like that should not be able to just name his price—not yet, anyway. He should get a decent signing bonus with his minor league contract, but only really cash in on his potential when it starts to be realized.

As much as I would like to see my boy Guts get a huge long term payday, it would be best if the O’s go year to year with him. When he hits the free agent market, hes gonna be 33 with his best years more than likely behind him. Wouldn’t make much sense to sign an older guy like that, but he might still make a solid 3 or 4 starter at that age most likely, and the O’s are supposed to be competing by then… so who knows? Best course of action is to go year by year with such uncertainty. Or just buy out his arb years. Either way the O’s are in a really good spot with Guthrie right now