Two O's in PECOTA 50

by BluJay on Aug 21, 2008 3:15 PM EDT

Nate Silver of BP has an article up on SI.

Markakis clocks in at 34 and Weiters at 32 (and the only Minor Leaguer).

No. 34, Nick Markakis, RF, Orioles, Age 24 (--)

Believe it or not, the Orioles actually placed two young hitters in the Top 50, and another into Honorable Mention. Markakis is probably never going to be a huge power hitter, but with a great line-drive stroke and an even better batting eye, he'll be a top-of-the-order hitter for years to come.

No. 32. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles, Age 22 (--)

Here is the other Oriole -- and the only current minor leaguer to make our Top 50. Since last season, we have significantly revised our minor league forecasts to make them more conservative ... but Wieters still blows the system out of the park, with a 1.038 OPS thus far on the season in spite of playing in some pitcher-friendly environments. Wieters might be in the upper quartile of major league catchers if he put on an Orioles uniform right now -- and he's only 22.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/08/21/bp.pecota50/1.html

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this line makes me dizzy

"Adam Jones could be the next Willie Mays, for example — or he could be the next Corey Patterson. "

Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08

by 33 on Aug 21, 2008 3:33 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm hoping more for the former...

I’d also take the next Bernie Williams, and that one good year that CPat had.

"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08

by getxstoked on Aug 21, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

I would take Mike Cameron

but I expect more than that. Remember, we can only compare black guys with black guys, and white guys with white guys.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Aug 21, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

I want

Grady Sizemore.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 22, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

wait...

I mean as a comparison. Although if Grady wants to come over and play center and move Jones to left that’d be ok with me to.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 22, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

I am pretty sure that was based almost purely on statistical comparisons. He doesn’t have the same loopy swing as CP and I think he appears more patient at the plate. But to compare him to Mays is ridiculous IMO. I think Torrii Hunter is a much more fair comp, but I think he could provide a slightly higher average (and OBP) than Hunter.

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 21, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hunter

I don’t think Jones is projected to bring the sort of power the Hunter does. Hunter flat out kills the ball, but he whiffs plenty in doing so. I think Jones will hit for a very high average though. If he packs on some LB’s, the power may come.

by Dr. Giggles on Aug 22, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

well

Jones:
25 HR in 420 AB in AAA last year (age 21)
16.8 AB/HR

Hunter:
18 HR in 209 AB’s in AAA at age 24
11.6 AB/HR

Hunter didn’t hit many homeruns before that year in AAA and Jones power numbers improved significantly that year. Hitters develop power with age and experience and its not all about size (both he and hunter are 6-2 but Hunter weighs 205 as opposed to 185). Jones might fill out more in time, but I think Hunter like power isn’t unreasonable to expect. Although stats never tell the entire story.

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 22, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good stuff

I didn’t know Hunter was 6-2. He looks sqatter than that.

Hopefully Jones’ good eye and youth lead to better numbers. I mean, he’s clearly the quicker learner of the two and seems to be a great student of the game… Or maybe I am just reading too much O’s biased propaganda.

by Dr. Giggles on Aug 22, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Believe it or not!!!

Some crummy teams actually have decent players. Can you believe that? Nate Silver was evidently surprised to learn this.

by drj on Aug 21, 2008 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs

No.

That is just not plausible.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 21, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up 0 recs