Matt Wieters in 2009

by dkdc on Aug 27, 2008 10:43 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

Since the Major League team is virtually unwatchable at this point, let's take a look at everyone's favorite prospect, Matt Wieters.

I'm sure most O's fans have at least a passing familiarity with what he's done in the minors this year, but I like to look at his numbers, so here they are:

A+/AA (Age 22): .350/.452/.597 (1.049 OPS) 26 HR, 88 RBI, 81/72 BB/K

Those are just insane numbers. To put those in perspective, below are some top ranked hitting prospects by Baseball America over the last few years along with their stats in the prior season.

Jay Bruce (#1 in 2008)

A+/AA/AAA (Age 20): .319/.375/.587 (.962 OPS) 26 HR, 89 RBI, 47/135 BB/K

Evan Longoria (#2 in 2008)

AA/AAA (Age 21): .299/.402/.520 (.922 OPS) 26 HR, 95 RBI, 73/110 BB/K

Alex Gordon (#2 in 2007)

AA (Age 22): .325/.427/.588 (1.015 OPS) 29 HR, 101 RBI, 72/113 BB/K

Brandon Wood (#3 in 2006)

A+ (Age 20): .321/.383/.672 (1.055 OPS) 43 HR, 116 RBI, 48/134 BB/K

Joe Mauer (#1 in 2004/2005)

A+/AA (Age 20): .338/.396/.434 (.830 OPS) 5 HR, 85 RBI, 49/49 BB/K

Wieters hit for a higher average than any of these guys, and he showed as much power as all of them but Wood. His plate discipline is where he really shines, though.

He walked more than any of these other elite hitters, and was the only hitter to have more walks than strikeouts. He had fewer strikeouts than everyone but Mauer, and that's an important indicator of how easily a minor league hitter will transition to the majors, which is why Mauer had an easier time than some of the others.

Wieters also provides as much or more defensive value as any of these other guys. The only knock against Wieters is that he was a little old for his leagues compared to some of these other guys, but there's a pretty strong case for calling Wieters the best hitting prospect in the last 5 years.

Wieters is flying a bit under the radar on the national level right now, but I think that will change in the offseason. He's likely to receive multiple player-of-the-year awards and he's likely to be ranked as the #1 prospect by Baseball America.

So, how should the Orioles handle him next year? He's not getting called up this September, and I recently read a quote from Trembley that indicated he won't be guaranteed the starting spot out of spring training. The writing on the wall is that the Orioles plan to play the service time game with Wieters just like the Rays did with Longoria.

If Wieters breaks camp with the Orioles next spring and never sees the minor leagues again, he'll be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season. However, due to a quirk of the system, if he stays in the minor leagues for just two weeks next year, he won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.

It's probably the smart move from an organizational perspective, but it is a little on the sneaky side, and the Orioles will have to come up with a reason for Wieters to spend a little time in AAA. I'm guessing something along the lines of "he needs to work on his footwork" or "he needs a little more experience calling games" or some other nonsense.

The real downside is that the Orioles will need a catcher other than Wieters on opening day 2009. That may mean they will decide to hold on to Ramon Hernandez, or they may just try to pretend that Quiroz is a starting catcher. It should be an interesting storyline to watch.

One last piece of Wieters news: The Orioles are sending him to the Arizona Fall League along with Brandon Snyder and Nolan Reimold. No word on Brian Matusz, but the Orioles haven't announced which pitchers they are sending.

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I can’t blame the O’s for playing the service time game. Wieters already has a $6 million deal, although I don’t recall the specifics of how it is paid out. He’s made a good chunk of change, and the O’s should try to hang onto him and defer the onset of free agency. It’s not as if he’s miserably underpaid in the meanwhile. The O’s are horrible right now and bringing him up serves little purpose in terms of the W/L column. Perhaps fans would get a bit more excited, but I think I’ll take some deferred gratification in the form of a guaranteed extra year of Matt Wieters as an Oriole.

If the O’s can unload Ramon, I think they’ll jump at the chance and break camp with Quiznos and another warm body. The big question is who will be throwing the damn ball to Wieters when he cracks the majors. It’s that group that is making this team virtually unwatchable. That isn’t going to change in 2009 unless the O’s go to some free agents.

by drj on Aug 27, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another Story for This Offseason

Should the O’s cut bait on Daniel Cabrera?

He’s making almost $3MM this year, and he’ll probably get a raise in arbitration next year despite his terrible season. His peripherals continue to regress, his velocity is way down, and he may be injured.

I’ve defended Cabrera’s inning-eatingness in the past, but this latest slide really calls into question his long-term value. Is he worth the risk of tendering a contract that may cost $5MM?

And if the answer is “no”, how the hell do the Orioles fill those other 4 rotation spots?

by dkdc on Aug 27, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve defended Cabrera’s inning-eatingness in the past, but this latest slide really calls into question his long-term value. Is he worth the risk of tendering a contract that may cost $5MM?

It depends on his latest injury. If he needs TJ surgery, just cut bait with him. If he’s healthy, keep him. But I doubt he’s healthy. I have feeling something going on with his elbow which is explaining his latest slide. the O’s should have traded his sorry ass 2 months ago. I don’t ever want to hear about how Cabs is ready to the turn the corner.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Aug 27, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

something has to be wrong with his arm...

he’s been known to suck… but he’s sucked at ~95 mph… there’s something going on if he’s throwing mid-80’s now.

by Y Not on Aug 27, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The pitching failures have set this team back.

We’ve seen Cabrera’s career peak during his couple month run of excellence earlier this season. Loewen is out but he was never on the fast track to being a front of the rotation starter. Penn looks like a complete wash. Liz and Olson made no meaningful progress at the MLB level this year. This pitching was supposed to be the future in 2009. You can say the O’s have more pitching in the making, but that is beyond 2009. The crop that was supposed to be here now has failed. I don’t see how the O’s can have any trust in Cabrera. I recall a rumor that they tried to trade him this past off season. I don’t think anyone will be listening now. I’ve always liked the guy. Reports said he always worked hard and tried to improve, but we’ve seen his best.

Given the failure of the current pitching crop, I think it’s likely we’ll see a free agent (and a lost draft pick) . Assuming he has an injury and can overcome it to become the same Cabrera we know, he’ll be on the team in 2009. But he’ll be on the bubble while the O’s wait for some of the next wave a pitching to materialize. I’m thinking he’ll come in at maybe $3.5 million… maybe I’m naive.

by drj on Aug 27, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

If you’d told me in February that Penn, Loewen, Patton, Liz, Albers and Olson would all suffer season-ending injuries or completely suck at the major league level (or both, in Loewen’s case), I would’ve been pretty depressed.

I still have hope for some of those guys, but there’s a very real chance that none of them will ever spend a full season in a major league rotation.

On the other hand, there were a lot of bright spots from this season that balance out the starting pitching suck:

-Dr. Jones delivered on his promise (especially defensively) and left us wanting more
-Markakis continues to get better
-Scott further convinced me that he’s a legitimate everyday big league LF
-Guthrie stepped up his game and is looking an awful lot like a #1 starter
-Roberts, Huff, Mora, and Hernandez all had good enough seasons that they could bring back talent in a trade
-Jim Johnson came out of nowhere to be a force
-Pre-injury Sherrill was a decent major league closer (although he’s still better cast as a setup man)
-Wieters and Tillman made big strides and emerged as two of the best prospects in the game
-Other guys in the minors put themselves on the radar: Reimold/Hernandez/Erbe/Bergesen/Snyder
-The Orioles drafted and signed the best starting pitcher available

by dkdc on Aug 27, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

In a world where Carlos Silva gets 4/48, I dont mind seeing them offering arbitration to a guy who is usually durable and an innings eater.

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 27, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and for someone who’s usually near average. It’s possible that Olson and Liz may be able to give the same production as Cabs next year, but I could easily see them continuing their current production (ERA+ in the 60s). In the end though. I can’t say I care terribly much about Cab’s fate with the O’s. If the O’s wanted to cut him and give his job to Olson or Liz, fine by me. We’ll probably need of all of these guys though.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Aug 27, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually Olson needs to do what I said about JJ at the start of the season, he needs to develop another plus pitch.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Aug 27, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Wieters breaks camp with the Orioles next spring and never sees the minor leagues again, he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season. However, due to a quirk of the system, if he stays in the minor leagues for just two weeks next year, he won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.

I’m all about sending him to AAA for a few weeks. It won’t hurt his development at all. It keeps him longer in an O’s uniform. The O’s aren’t contending anyways. As Keith Law said on his facebook page, “I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters.”

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Aug 27, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like that

I think i’ll make it my signature

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 27, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ramon Hernandez

Well, you can do a lot worse that Ramon. He’s at least putting some wood on the ball lately, and all the above arguments for keeping Weiters below are solid.

After all, it wasn’t that long ago that we had SAL FASANO starting games behind the plate. No one is that bad, not even Quiroz.

1933 was a bad year

by Senatorrosewater on Aug 27, 2008 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As recently as 2005...

Sal Fasano | 6-02 | 220 | Right | Right | 1971-08-10
Geronimo Gil | 6-02 | 195 | Right | Right | 1975-08-07
Javy Lopez | 6-03 | 185 | Right | Right |1970-11-05
Eli Whiteside | 6-02 | 210 | Right | Right | 1979-10-22

Ah… Those were the days.

Kevbo: [to George Sherrill] George, you look a lot like Vin Diesel...

Flatbill: Let's get somethin' straight... Vin Diesel looks like me.

-From "The Making of Orioles Magic"

by dayzd toe on Aug 27, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bite

your tongue!!! Nobody talks to Serpico like that.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 27, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All the talk about our farm being weak in positional kids

To me at least, I can easily see two of Wieters, Reimold and Snyder being more ML productive than two of Tillman, Matusz and Arrietta. I say that because at least one of the two (Snyder/Reimold) reaching ML average is far from a stretch and Wieters surpassing Babe Ruth is a foregone conclusion; although I have faith in our pitching prospects, Arrietta is far from a proven commodity, Tillman is 20 and Matusz hasn’t even debuted yet.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 27, 2008 6:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Wieters surpassing Babe Ruth is a foregone conclusion"

You say enough sensible things that I hope this was sarcasm.

by punkrawka on Aug 28, 2008 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Maybe just Ty Cobb.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 28, 2008 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

by Y Not on Aug 30, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boras

I forgot that Scott Boras is Wieters agent. That by itself should justify keeping Wieters in AAA for a week to start the season. I’d like to keep him an extra year since A) We’re not going to compete next season anyway (so a week without him wont matter) B) There is 0% chance he signs a long term extension.

by edsachs1 on Aug 27, 2008 11:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Montanez

Any chance Montanez is simply a late bloomer and can either garner a good trade or take over in LF and allow us to move Luke?

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 28, 2008 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I suppose it might be

There are guys like Ludwick, Cust, and others who always hit fairly well in the minors but never got a shot and are holding their own or better in the bigs. Montanez has kinda been up-and-down, though.

I would wait for a larger sample than 50 or so PAs. Especially since he’s only taken 3 walks in the majors thus far.

My gut says he won’t last. He’ll probably be out of the team’s plans by the end of the season, sadly.

by pipkin on Aug 28, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Guys like Ludwick, Cust, and Luke Scott raked for a long time in the minors and just didn’t get their shot until late because they were pegged as AAAA players.

Montanez has really never hit well in the minors, and is probably just having a career year.

If you want to be optimistic, you can see some steady improvement over the years in Montanez’s numbers if you squint real hard. Also, Montanez was a first round pick way back when (the same year the Orioles drafted Beau Hale), so there must’ve been some tools there for the Cubs to take him #3 overall.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

on the other hand

The Cubs were as poorly-run back then as the Orioles were, so it could’ve just been bad scouting. Or signability. Or who knows what.

Also, right on. I totally forgot about Luuuke in this discussion.

by pipkin on Aug 28, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

just wishful thinking. Would love to have Markakis, Jones, and this version of Montanez even though it is an extremely small sample.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 28, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if they're gonna move Scott

It’ll probably be in favor of Reimold. Who could be the next (right-handed) Luke Scott, come to think of it.

Maybe hold on to Scott while he’s cheap and then trade? I dunno his exact contract status.

by pipkin on Aug 28, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scott will probably be super-two arbitration eligible after this season. He’ll probably make $2MM – $3MM next year.

If he continues to perform, he’ll get a raise of ~$2MM a year for 2010, 2011, and 2012.

He’ll be cheap relative to performance for a while, assuming his production doesn’t fall off a cliff.

by dkdc on Aug 28, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

have a problem with Luke being the LF for a few years to come. I just envision a day when the O’s have enough legit prospects they can afford to either A. let Luke scott go b/c Reimold/Montanez/etc. are ready to come up or B. trade reimold/montanez/etc. for some more pitching or whatever. I know real baseball teams don’t actually do stuff like this but hey, I can dream.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 28, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs