Camden Chat: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Check out our NFL Scoreboard: scores, schedule and blogs Bar-right-arrows



NumerO Cinco? Si!

29299905_medium The Orioles are 63-70 on this off day, 18 games out of first place. In the last ten, they're the only AL East squad with a losing record, going 3-7. The rest of the division has won six of the last ten.

The Orioles are 50-45 in night games this season, and just 13-25 in day games. Good thing we don't have a Cubs schedule.

The Orioles are 20-23 in one-run games, a massive improvement on the 13-31 mark from 2007, which was by far the worst in Major League Baseball.

Jeremy Guthrie is tied for sixth in the American League in ERA (3.28). The top ten, with W-L records thrown in, looks like this:

Cliff Lee, CLE (2.43, 19-2) ... Justin Duchscherer, OAK (2.54, 10-8) ... Roy Halladay, TOR (2.69, 16-9) ... John Lackey, LAA (2.95, 11-2) ... Armando Galarraga, DET (3.20, 12-4) ... Guthrie, BAL (3.28, 10-10) ... Felix Hernandez, SEA (3.28, 8-8) ... John Danks, CWS (3.30, 10-7) ... Ervin Santana, LAA (3.41, 13-5) ... Mike Mussina, NYY (3.45, 16-7)

Looking over those records and ERAs, I think you have to really be somewhat in awe of how good Cliff Lee has been. Halladay has thrown more innings, but Lee has been so dominant that he's managed to go 19-2 on a team that is two games under .500. He's credited for nearly one-third of their wins.

The O's have scored 5.13 runs per game, good for fourth in the American League behind Texas (5.54), Boston (5.21) and Chicago (5.17). At Camden Yards, the Birds score 5.31 runs per game, and on the road, 4.96. Last year, the team scored 4.67 runs per game, ninth in the AL.

The O's have allowed 5.14 runs per game, which is second-worst in the American League, ahead of only the deplorable Rangers (a staggering 5.99). The O's team ERA is 4.88. Last year, the Birds allowed 5.36 RPG with a 5.17 ERA, so it is an improvement. Not much one of, but an improvement.

In these respects, I think the "improvement" of this year's team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it's tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can't do this all by himself.

Frankly, this year's O's squad -- the competitive! team -- has had one of the worst starting rotations we've seen yet. Outside of Guthrie, they are all terrible. Look at these numbers:

 

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP ERA+
Daniel Cabrera 171.2 5.24 1.55 83
Garrett Olson 108.2 6.38 1.71 69
Brian Burres 112.0 5.79 1.66 76
Radhames Liz 57.0 6.95 1.79 63
Steve Trachsel 39.2 8.39 2.02 52
Chris Waters 28.2 4.71 1.43 93
Adam Loewen 21.1 8.02 2.02 55

And yes, this means that Daniel Cabrera still sucks, and that he's just as bad as he was last season. This "useful back-end starter" thing is not really very true. He's really, really bad.

This one truly warms my heart: Nick Markakis is fourth in the American League in on-base percentage at .403. He trails Milton Bradley (.446), Joe Mauer (.410) and J.D. Drew (.408). Markakis is fourth in the league in walks (84).

Aubrey Huff is sixth in the American League in slugging percentage (.566), fifth in OPS (.932), third in doubles (40), first in total bases (286), tied for fourth in home runs (29), sixth in RBI (94), fifth in adjusted OPS+ (143), third in runs created (107), fifth in adjusted batting runs (31), fifth in batting wins (2.9), first in extra-base hits (71), seventh in offensive win percentage (.701), and has a VORP of 53.9, by far the best on the team.

In other words, Aubrey Huff is the balls.

Brian Roberts leads the league in doubles (46), is third in triples (8), tied for tenth in walks (68), fifth in stolen bases (33), and third in times on base (226).

You know who's first in times on base? Markakis, with 240.

Melvin Mora has 97 RBI, and is having his best season since 2004, which is almost entirely thanks to a hot July and an unimaginably scorching August. Let's not forget the Melvin Mora of the first half, though. He hit .232/.300/.385. He was freaking awful. Awful, awful, awful, terrible, bad. He was so bad that they should have given up on the old fart and tried strugglin' Mike Costanzo or Scott Moore or my cat or anyone. He was hideous.

But in July he hit .311/.373/.533 with five homers, and this month he's been postively Herculean, going ape bananas at .427/.463/.781 with eight home runs.

More on Melvin: in seven games against the Tigers, Mora has hit .571/.618/1.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. In 12 games against the Red Sox, Melvin has decided to take a nap to the tune of .111/.222/.200 with two extra-base hits (a homer and a double).

Folks that say Jay Payton has done a super duper job this season live on a different planet than I do. I respect his capability to fill in in center field with AJ out and I haven't once been truly annoyed by the dude this year as I was last year, but he's getting a lot of compliments like he's been some sort of genuine positive to the team. There are a lot of fourth/fifth outfielders that could hit .256/.300/.363. He's just as bad as he was last year, but there's been a lot less of him.

I said around the All-Star break that I thought Ramon Hernandez would bounce back in the second half because he'd been incredibly unlucky in the first half. This was no grand statement or amazing guesstimate, but he's done pretty well, hitting .288/.344/.492 since the break. I'd take those numbers out of a catcher any day. Of course I'd also prefer one that wasn't as lazy as he is behind the plate. He has also regressed back to stinking in August (.253/.292/.361).

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 with seven homers against Jamie Walker. Ummm, not cool, bro. I still love Jamie Jam Walker, but he's had a terrible season.

Since coming to the Orioles, Juan Castro has hit .214/.248/.276. He's 36 years old. He's never been any good at all. And this is the guy that wins shortstop for the season. Unbelievable.

Luke Scott has been our version of Trot Nixon, and will probably have roughly the same shelf life. He really needs a lefty-mashing platoon partner (.762 OPS v. LHP is not horrible, though). In this regard, I'll give Payton a little credit: he has bopped lefties at a .551 slugging clip. All six of his homers have come against left-handed pitchers.

Lou Montanez has been fun to watch. No numbers.

This really should be the last season for Kevin Millar as an Oriole. I say that with respect for the guy, too. It's just that his OPS has dropped every season as an Oriole -- .811 in 2006, .785 in 2007, .755 this season. He's already pretty well below standard for a first baseman, and pushing him any further as a starter would probably be a really bad idea. He does get credit for making the team fun again, and giving them some much-needed personality. And he hasn't killed us as a player or anything. But any further down the ladder, and he will. He's not getting younger.

0 recs | Comment 31 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

When

you mentioned JD Drew you forgot to mention that he is currently on the DL. I think it’s a requirement that you ALWAYS mention the two together.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Aug 28, 2008 5:27 PM EDT   0 recs

How much consideration does Lee get for the MVP this year?

I’m one of those poeple that dosen’t think what your team record is should matter with the Most Valuble Player award but that usually isn’t the case. He has to be at least in the conversation dosen’t he. The dude had been down right filthy and is the only player on my fantasy team thats worth a shit. Well other than Chase Utley.

"Daddy, is Hevan like BIRDLAND?"
"No son, Hevan is BIRDLAND."

by BENNY BIRDMAN on Aug 28, 2008 5:44 PM EDT   0 recs

as a person, it's easy to like Walker

He’s had a horrible year. I feel bad for him, but I wonder if this is the end of the line for him.

by math_geek on Aug 28, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

aging guys with no stuff...

don’t last long.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Aug 28, 2008 6:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not always true

(think Tiant, Cuellar, even Palmer when he learned not to live by his fastball), but definitely true of JW. Sayonara, Jamie.

by fishoutawata on Aug 29, 2008 1:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Aug 29, 2008 2:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There are exceptions. Moyer is regarded as exceedingly smart on the mound, too.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 1, 2008 5:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In these respects, I think the “improvement” of this year’s team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it’s tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can’t do this all by himself.

I agree that the pitching is terrible, and that our pitching staff is far worse without Erik Bedard. However, I don’t think you can say that the “improvement” is smoke and mirrors. The Bedard trade absolutely had to happen, and our non-Bedard pitching is much better this year than last. Adam Jones was way better than Corey Patterson after his slow start, and our bullpen is way better. Don’t get me wrong, our starting rotation has been unwatchable, but it was last year too. The difference is now that we have a team of minor league pitchers hungrily eyeing those rotation spots. Too bad they aren’t ready.

by math_geek on Aug 28, 2008 6:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Bullpen way better?

Don’t know about that—somewhat better I can go with. JJ? No question. I think Sarfate is the real deal, and is only going to get better as long as DD doesn’t mess with his head. We need a legit closer in a hurry, because Sherrill, if he stays, is really only the JW of the future, at best. And until this rotation is vastly improved, we need LOTS of middle relief. I think Olson might work out in this role, along with Albers, if he ever makes it back. I’m still hoping Burres can get back in the saddle and start.

by fishoutawata on Aug 29, 2008 1:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Jeremy Guthrie

pretty much rules. Nick Markakis definitely rules…re-sign him pronto!

Some encouraging stuff here, especially with some of the good pitching prospects in the O’s system. Not that I’m saying the O’s will contend next year, but this franchise isn’t a long way from totally screwed…as a lot of people thought it was coming into this year.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 8:05 PM EDT   0 recs

You know whats fun to think about,

Think about all the right fielders in Baseball you would take Nick Markakis over. Even on the AL East: I would take Nick Markakis over Alex Rios and Bobby Abreu. Now that warms my heart…plus the OBP.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Aug 28, 2008 9:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's a sad realization

There’s nothing in that post that you couldn’t have said last off-season.

by fishoutawata on Aug 29, 2008 2:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not true

Since the last off season they’ve have added the following pitchers to the system: Mikolio, Tillman, Butler, Matusz. Tillman and Matusz alone raise the standard of the pitching prospects, Mikolio is a power arm, Butler is young but shows promise. That’s to say nothing of other O’s draft picks, pitching wise (that I admittedly know nothing about). If Matusz is what everyone says he is and Tillman stays on track, adding them to the rotation with Guthrie in 2010 is pretty great.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Aug 29, 2008 2:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was referring to jobe's statement, above

Hence the judicious use of the “Reply” button ;)

by fishoutawata on Aug 30, 2008 9:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oops, never mind.

i MEANT to reply to jobe. Sorry.

by fishoutawata on Aug 30, 2008 9:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

isn’t a long way from totally screwed

I assume you mean is a long way from totally screwed. Or isn’t totally screwed. Or something.

by math_geek on Aug 28, 2008 8:22 PM EDT   0 recs

aub can play first

if we don’t sign um what his nuts.

wieters can DH on non catching days. 120 games @ DH?

we sign one (1) SP and we’re in the WC hunt assuming wieters isn’t another sam horn.

Yes, I should say that, which, I should say that.

by thewaywardO on Aug 29, 2008 8:21 AM EDT   0 recs

It is killing me

This is literally 100% what I was afraid would happen.

-We were hot enough early to not get a really good draft pick (Top 6).
-George Sherrill has gone down 450% in value.
- Liz, Olson and Loewen are all down the drain. I don’t think that it has been stressed enough that those three guys, along with Penn, were literally all the hope we had in our minors the past few years.
-Walker, Payton and Millar combined are going to bring in nothing.
-No one wants to take on the contract of a 32 year old DH who has had one real good year recently, but that looks peachy compared to taking on a 37 year old 3B who has absolutely no baseball smarts and is waiting on his $9m. And a no trade clause.

Granted I still have a TON of hope about our current pitching and positional kids.

My hope for this team is that they get young fast and were able to construct a carbon copy of the Rays. That is what I want. I want a team that is built around young guys who are really good and still have ten plus years left in their careers. I couldn’t even imagine the optimism I would feel if I was a Rays fan right now. I don’t want to go out this damn off season and bid on Sheets, Sabathia and Burnett. We have done that before. It doesn’t work. The funniest part is that none of them would even come to Baltimore. I don’t mean to point out a certain site, but there are people out there who actually think that we can take this old, completely over achieving offense into next year, coupled with a full revamp of 34+ year old relievers and starters to contend. And then what?

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 29, 2008 9:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Liz and Olson aren't toast

They’re still young and they still have the stuff that made them prospects. Let it ride a little.

by pipkin on Aug 29, 2008 11:19 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

well said pipkin

by Birdfan01 on Aug 29, 2008 11:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Stuff alone does not a ML pitcher make

These guys are starting to look like the thousands before them who never made it past being prospects.

by fishoutawata on Aug 29, 2008 2:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Stuff doesn't cut it

You have to have the full package. How many guys do we have on the Orioles pitching staff whose stuff has made them studs? Daniel Cabrera? Dennis Sarfate? Adam Loewen? Radhames Liz?

I know that they still have a chance as they’re young and can rebound, but it is highly improbable that they turn out to be half of what they needed to be for this team.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 29, 2008 4:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The samples are so small

These guys are young! Olson has only pitched 141 innings in the bigs. Liz has only pitched 81 for crying out loud!

It is too early to give up. What are we Yankee fans, who are already done with Phil Hughes? Not everyone is Joba Chamberlain when they first come up.

These guys have not had pretty starts to their careers. Neither did Maddux. Neither did Schilling. Neither did Jamie Moyer. And on and on. Pitching is hard Like, really hard.

by pipkin on Aug 29, 2008 6:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

overreacting

I think your overreacting a bit.
-Worrying about draft picks is stupid. You can build a great farm system no matter where you draft. The O’s have proven the past 2 drafts they are willing to make a change by A) paying for the top draft prospects and B) picking young high school talent in the later rounds. The Rays built their strong farm system from alot more than just Top 5 draft picks.
-George Sherrill’s value went down, but not much from where it was at. He’ll still look good if he can finish with a strong September. Even if we can’t trade I’d be very happy having a 7th/8th/9th bullpen of Chis Ray, JJ, and Sherrill. If we can get a lead by the 7th it would almost certainly be a win.
-I don’t think past pitching prospects were as strong as we thought. Loewen wasn’t a strong prospect to begin with. Penn had a ton of bad luck. Liz was always destined for the bullpen. Olson has been the biggest disappointment, but I’ve always seen his ceiling as a 4th starter. I still think he can reach that if he can settle down mentally. Plus we have a new hope in Tillman, Arrietta, and Matusz, which I think looks alot stronger. I’d just sign some stop gaps next offseason to 1-2 year deals so they can develop (such as Mussina, Garland, Lowe, etc. , but I want them to be healthy so we don’t have a similar situation).
-I’ll gladly take another year of Aubrey Huff if no one wants him. Also I don’t think Mora will be around if he doesn’t accept a reduced role. I could see him being next season’s Jay Gibbons.

This team has made huge leaps in the 14 monthes since MacPhail has taken over. Its amazing considering what a mess the organization was. It won’t be long before we are back on top, it just takes time.

by edsachs1 on Aug 29, 2008 3:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I see what your saying

But I disagree.

-Although you can build without having a top 5-6 draft pick, it is unquestionably harder. In any given draft you are lucky to have 5-6 elite kids coming up and past 7 or so it becomes pure luck. If you aren’t going to contend, or in the Orioles case be near .500, then what positive can you take out of having the 12th overall pick?
-Sherrill will never be higher than he was at the all star break. He had an ERA under 4 and don’t underestimate what that all star game did for him; Sherrill wasn’t on the 15 day DL and he was under team control for longer.
-No matter how strong they were juxtaposed to what we thought they were, those guys were all we had. They WERE our farm system. I guess Nick being in the minors for 5 minutes might count, too.
-Why would we want Aubrey Huff if we are losing, I just don’t get it. After 11 seasons of losing I really could care less about maybe being able to get to .500, I want to build a young team that will be good for a long ass time. In these dog days of August and September, I get absolutely no joy out of watching Melvin Mora or Aubrey Huff, no matter how much they are raking. Melvin Mora is going to be 37 and Huff 32, they will not help us on a contending team so why should I care about them? To be honest I would rather take the chances that the heavens align and Scott Moore becomes a productive player in the majors than watch Aubrey Huff hit home runs in another 85 loss season.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 29, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

-If you have good player evaluation you can build regardless of draft position. There are plenty of players that fall late into the draft that become all-stars. As well as players that fall due to money issues (see Wieter and Smoak or even Arrieta). I could really care less where we drafted, I care more in how we evaluate talent.
-Sherrill’s value was really high after the AS game. But imagine teams were still hesitate because of durability/age concerns (which going 2 innings in the AS game probably didn’t help). I have faith that MacPhail would have traded him had he gotten a worthwhile deal. Plus I still think his value will be high in the offseason if he finishes strong.
-I don’t really see your point here. Those guys were from the past regimes. It shows that our farm system wasn’t very good. It was light years better than the crap we had before, but still not good. Penn was really the biggest disappointment, and he probably is one of the unluckiest guy in baseball history. Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz are light years better.
-Yes, I’ll agree Huff and Mora were not ideal signings. But again they were from past GMs that made poor decisions. I really think they’ll drop Mora next year if he doesn’t accepted a utility role. And at least Huff is a great player and has justified his contract, unlike past siginings (Cordova, Segui, Lopez).

When evaluating this team I really think you have to look at what MacPhail has done. The change has been huge. The O’s have more international scouting, made huge leaps in PR (Baltimore on road jerseys, acknowledging the Ravens, $1 Sept. tickets). You can see the change in the clubhouse, which I think explains the fact that they are playing somewhat over their heads. I really can’t see how anyone who’s followed the team since last June can’t be optimistic about the future. It’s as if the O’s got a new owner who actually knows what he is doing.

by edsachs1 on Aug 29, 2008 6:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I know what MacPhail has done

But that doesn’t change the fact that at the major league level there hasn’t been many positive to dwell on. The minors have been a pleasant surprise but the fact that we are in November and are playing a lineup that looks like this is just crushing. I see how way that the Orioles contend for an additional two years.

Roberts 2B (30)
Markakis RF (24)
Mora 3B (36)
Huff DH (31)
Hernandez C (32)
Scott LF (30)
Millar 1B (37)
Payton CF (35)
Castro SS (36)

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 29, 2008 10:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good grammar

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 29, 2008 10:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As for Sherrill's value

I don’t see how it can come up withouit any save situations, don’t you agree? :)

by fishoutawata on Aug 30, 2008 9:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's interesting to see performance to date of some players...

… verses opinions on them early in the season.

If I’m recalling correctly the general opinion (in the media and with the fans here) was that the O’s had strength in pitching, but were going to be anemic offensively. Flip that one on it’s ear.

Huff – he’d have been lucky to find someone to piss on him if he were on fire.

Mora – only reason he wasn’t leading candidate for first Oriole who should get the boot was because Millar and Huff and managed to outrage a majority of fans with their off season actions or comments.

Cabrera – ok, most of you were right about him (and I was wrong.)

Mussina – I recall getting blasted when I mentioned how I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in an O’s uniform. The guy was through was the general opinion. I’m glad to see he’s having a good season, particularly as the Yankees aren’t really benifiting from it.

Roberts – I wasn’t sure, but felt like the minority when it came to wanting to hold on to him. Performance wise, he’s justified that position. Does anyone know how any of the pitchers mentioned from the Cubs as possible trade pieces have done?

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Sep 3, 2008 3:27 PM EDT   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The SB Nation blog covering the Baltimore Orioles.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

013_small
Gomez is back
M_99dee6c12781619f2dd46dc0215b4b2f_small
The Answer in Left Field
Small
Video on Koji Uehara-1/2 pitches are hangers!
Small
Tex Says, "the Yankees were always the top [choice]."
Brandonfahey_small
Sources: O's, Uehara agree on two-year deal
Patchbbbal_small
The Original Orioles 1893
41291692_small
21-30
41291692_small
11-20
41291692_small
My Top 30 Orioles Prospects
Rasputin22_small
OT: NCAA Football season ends, USC No. 1 again

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Cobra Commander

Gijoecobra_small SC

Dreadnoks

Oriole1_small zknower

109531462_dfb593e7ba_m_small 2632

4fgfgjfxe30x64uwibpb59rg9_small Stacey

Animal-picture-baby-duck-taminsea_small duck

Crimson Guard

33798317_small birdman

Orioooles_palmer_small Baltimo

Img_0666_small NawlinsOriole

ad

Site Meter