Git-R-Dunn!
by Scott Christ on Aug 8, 2008 3:08 AM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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Maybe this won't sit well with too many (I've seen a couple of you mention this same thing, though), but I'm going to just come right out and say it.
Just lay all my cards on the table.
Live in the now.
Be 100% honest.
I'd rather have Adam Dunn than Mark Teixeira.
"Whoa, whoa!" you might be saying. "Why?! Dunn hates baseball! Dunn hates everything about baseball! Dunn's not from Maryland! Dunn's not as good as Teixeira!"
I know. I know, I know, I know.
Here's the thing, though: Dunn's going to be a lot cheaper than Mark Teixeira, who is reported to be seeking (through Scott Boras) a $230 million contract. He's going to test the free agent market. We know that. He even told his stalker, Gary Thorne, the other day that he would in fact test free agency and would consider signing with the Orioles.
So, yeah, everyone's all aflutter about Teixeira, and I don't blame anyone for that. He's a hell of a good player, an offensive powerhouse and a Gold Glove first baseman.
But considering the pricetag, we are unlikely to be able to come up with the money, and we are also likely to be outbid, no matter what. The Yankees will come calling, have no doubt about that. So will the Mets.
Meanwhile, Adam Dunn won't command near that same amount of money or attention. He has all that stigma, a lot of it started by the obscene Cincinnati broadcasters. He's a poor defender, he's slow on the basepaths, and he strikes out a lot.
Oh yeah, and he hits 40 home runs every year with 100 walks. And since this is the American League, screw his glove. Adam Dunn came into this world with a "DH" on his birth certificate.
I'm not saying it's wrong to pursue Teixeira, even at the money. He's a splashy signing and a hell of a player. But Dunn's going to be remarkably cheaper and has skills that age well (power and patience).
What say you? Go after Teixeira or focus on Dunn, who will be a secondary plan for the bigger spenders?
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The worst critique of Dunn
“He strikes out too much.” An out is an out. Any positive effect of putting the ball in play (moving runners over, sac fly, what have you) is nearly negated by the negatives (double plays). As long as the dude gets hits, walks, HRs, at a good clip, I’m not complaining about HOW he makes his outs.
/rant
Well not only does he strike out, but he clogs up the fucking bases with all those shitty walks and he hits all those rally-killing home runs. He has hit the most rally-killing home runs in baseball this season. He’s an embarrassment.
God do I hate the Brennamans.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
i do love me...
some base clogging, rally killing, home run hitting, three figure strikin out donkeys.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
167 K's
per year average since 2004. (including 3/4 of this years). Would like to see him as DH. I think I would rather have a couple of younger guys rather than Dunn or Teix. I don’t know who right off hand. What about someone like Kemp or Lind? I know it would probably take a couple of these guys to equal one Dunn or Teix for the next year or so but I think they would make it a better team overall.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
how does that matter?
that means nothing to me. look at how often he gets on base. look at how many jacks he hits.
i’ll bet a guy like that could be had for fewer $ annually AND woudln’t require as many guaranteed years.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Aug 8, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The K
Remember that the next time an Oriole strikes with 1 out and a man at third, and tell me there is no value in putting the ball in play.
yeah, well...
remember the k, next time you see an inning ending dp w/ bases loaded. doesn’t ring a bell from this season, does it?
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Aug 8, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted Dunn. I'd rather have Teixeira, all things equal
But like you said, all things aren’t equal. Actually I’d rather have both, like I said in the Shysterball post.
"There is a value to breaking the string of losing seasons as an organization or as a franchise. But breaking that streak can’t come at the expense of doing what you need to do to get your franchise to the point where it can reach the postseason." ~Andy MacPhail
hmm
What would both run us? And would it be worth it to look like the Rangers?
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
it's funny...
you’ve heard so much talk about how the volquez-hamilton trade worked out so well for the rangers and the reds, but hasn’t starting pitching always been they’re problem? so they traded away danks and volquez? chris young? yeesh. and people here complain about john maine!
i don’t get it.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Aug 8, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Next to go
should be Diamond. Those were the three DVD boys they were hanging their hopes on a few years ago.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
yep...
i’m still just sitting here thinking what a power they’d be w/ young, danks and volquez spearheading that rotation. what do they have to show for that? basically, hamilton and 4/5 guy. sweet move, dudes.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
by j.q. higgins on Aug 8, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Tex and Dunn
While Tex and Scott Boras will be asking for $230 million, I have enough faith in the GMs of baseball that he will not get that much. Something like a 7 year, 150 million contract will happen I think. Tex is overrated like hell, but even above average at-the-time guys like Vernon Wells and Barry Zito are raking in the absurd deals these days, so I think Tex will be able to cash in on that amount.
Dunn on the other hand will be undervalued by the market. Practically every baseball insider was shocked by the lack of attention that Dunn received at the trading deadline. Teams will probably pursue a shorter term deal with him, I’m guessing he’ll get a 5 year deal at $13-15 million a year. Still expensive, but a better value than Tex.
Thank God someone said it
Give me Adam Dunn any day of the week. All the Donkey does is help you win ballgames…which I think is still the goal at the end of the day.
I always say follow your dreams...even if they're about a giant spider with your father's head, and he keeps stealing your p*nis!
by Ghost of Floyd Rayford on Aug 8, 2008 8:41 AM EDT reply actions
Depends on the deal
If Tex is going to give the Orioles a hometown discount; than I’d go after Tex. If he’s going to want market value, then O’s probably shouldn’t get either one. It’s probably a year too early for the Orioles to be adding high priced free agents unless there is a good deal to be had.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
Alright…Another Oriole fan stuck in Philly.
Sign the petition!
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com
I didn't realize it
but the highest Dunn has ever batted was .266 in 2004. He’s batting .238 this year but still OPS’s over 900 every year.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
GIve me OBP
How many times is he getting on base? He’s got a TON of walks, which drives his OBP a lot higher. And yeah, a .900 OPS is really good.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
Fuck yeah!!!
I love Adam Dunn. I love that he plays shitty defense and strikes out 200 times a season and clogs up the basepaths. I love how much everyone hates him for all of those things.
I want him on the Orioles so badly it’s sort of sad. Mark Teixeira is a good player, but I think that as far as bang for your buck goes Dunn is better. It also bothers me that for a lot of people the biggest reason to sign Teixeira is because he’s from Severna Park. Who cares if he’s from the area? That kind of weird provincialism always bothered me about Baltimore.
Anyway, the dream I’ve been blathering on about for two years now is for the O’s to sign both of them. Mark my words, if they do that the Orioles will become instant competitors.
Neither
Both don’t fit in the long term goals of the organization. Dunn screams early decline to me (old player skills) and Tex is going to be way overpriced. Also signing either one costs us our second round pick because they are probably both going to be type-A FA’s. Fill these easy positions when we are closer to competing.
Does one lose the ability
to draw walks with age?
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
not usually
Power and plate discipline are “old player’s skills.”
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
by Scott Christ on Aug 10, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Woah!
Dunn is a scrub. I am not interested in him at all, plus there is no guarantee he can play first. And if he could, certainly not as well as Teixeira.
The O’s have made it history of getting the “second tier” free agents the past ten years. People like Jay Payton, Marty Cordova, Aubrey Huff (although he’s having a good year this year).
Sign the petition!
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com
Probably right about that. Either way, they’ve pursued all the big free agents like Konerko, and Lee, and Guerrero and so on, and wind up looking at the leftovers.
Sign the petition!
http://bringmarkhome.withthispetition.com
Scrub?
Hold on a minute there partner.
Dunn is not a second tier free agent in the same league as Jay Payton, Marty Cordova, or Aubrey Huff. Those guys couldn’t carry his jock onto the field. Dunn hits 40 home runs and walks 100 times like clockwork. He’s like Mickey Tettleton with even more power.
By any grown-up standard of measurement Adam Dunn is just as productive offensively as Mark Teixeira. Over the past five seaons Dunn and Teixeira have the exact same number of win shares, which includes defensive value so if anything Dunn is more valuable than Teixeira offensively. Sure Dunn’s defense sucks, but it turns out the Orioles will need a DH as well, so who cares? Plus, Dunn and Teixeira are the same age.
Should have clarified that I wasn’t comparing Payton/Cordova to Dunn, but just talking about the lower tier free agents. Just making that observation about the O’s in the free agent market.
My problem with someone like Dunn (who I do like), is those type of players seem to have a hard fall from grace. All of a sudden they wake up one day and bat speed has diminished and they’re gone. Thinking of people like Rob Deer. Kind of hard to do comparison to people like McGwire with the steroids and all that good stuff. I don’t like looking into the lineup seeing someone hitting in the .230’s, at least in this lineup.
Now with all that being said. If you had Teixeira 4th and Dunn 5th, that’s pretty good (there was someone talking about wanting both). But it all depends on the money, who knows what Dunn is looking for.
Overall, I just think you’ll have a better idea of what you’ll be getting from Teixeira in 5 years then Dunn.
Why?
I fail to see the difference between them in terms of expected productivity. Dunn and Teixeira are the same age and over the past five years they’ve been equally productive. I’m not a scout so I have no idea how to determine whether or not there is some sort of decline in skills other than looking at what he does on paper, but in that regard Dunn seems to be one of the most reliable sluggers in baseball. He’s obviously worlds better than Rob Deer whose career best in OBP is lower than Dunn career average and as you said with McGwire (who was pretty awesome regardless) there are other mitigating factors. The fact Dunn walks so much says to me he has an eye that will keep him in the game when some other things stop working, which still should be a ways off.
There are two things that bug me about Teixeira or about how people think of Teixeira. First, I think a lot of Oriole fans from Baltimore fall into the natural provincialism for the region and automatically like him because he’s from the area. In this case that’s OK because Teixeira is pretty good, but it’s a bad instinct that I think should be discouraged.
Second, I think a lot of people like Teixeira because an more attractive player in a lot of ways. Teixeira is a trim, clean-shaven guy who looks good in his uniform and everybody likes him. Dunn is a sort of slob that the announcer from the Reds calls a piece of shit loser every night . Beyond that, Teixeira just looks prettier playing baseball than Dunn. Teixeira gets on base because of a pretty good batting average and a selective eye. Dunn gets on base with walks about half the time, which a lot of people still view with suspicion even if he has an on-base percentage equal to or higher than Teixeira’s. Teixeira also plays his defensive position well (although at a position where that has less return than it would elsewhere) and Dunn is a DH in the National Leauge (although I’ve heard that his defense is better this year than in the past). Once again, there’s no harm because Teixeira is still a great player, but the instinct to fixate on what strikes me as ultimately superficial bugs me.
NEither
they both dont fit in with what andy is trying to do here. If we see our prospects developing and then we see that we have holes to fill go right ahead and get some free agents, but until then lets build it up with prospects.
I'm just taking a stab in the dark here...
but I would guess we are going to “have holes to fill.”
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
Right
But you need to figure out where those holes really are and how bad those holes are; before you start filling them.
Orioles probably aren’t going to compete for the playoffs in 2009, so why start paying for high price FAs? Especially when they may not be good fits when you are ready to compete.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Aug 8, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
MacPhail's plans
As SC has mentioned 50 times before, the Orioles aren’t following the exact blueprint of the Twins and A’s, the model they are following is what the Tigers did. Because lets face it, the only blue chip prospect they have right now is Wieters. Even if the best case scenario happens and a solid amount of the prospects pan out, this team still won’t be playoff caliber (particularly the thin crop of position players). Despite the low attendance, the O’s are still a team capable of a $80-90 million payroll. Signing Dunn wouldn’t even begin to hurt the team. Tex would be a bigger strain on the finances though.
Hitters like Tex and Dunn, with the combination of skill and age, don’t hit the FA market very often. After 2009, the only hitters of this caliber available will be Matt Holliday (who I wouldn’t touch) and Jason Bay (will be too old). For the 2010 crop, i see nothing. If the O’s don’t make an honest run at either Dunn or Tex I will be severely disappointed. It falls well within “the plan.”
Andy has said
his strategy is to having strong organizational pitching through drafts and trades, and to add the bats through FA because hitters are less of a risk than pitchers. I think it’d be great to sign both Adam and Mark to contracts that will take them through their prime years as O’s. We might look like the Rangers next year, but if MacPhail’s pitching plan stays the course and works out, after 2009 we could have something great on our hands.
I used to worry about Dunn’s strikeouts but now I don’t give a crap. Maybe I finally grew up and realized I’d rather have the worlds biggest striker outer than the worlds biggest double player (ahem, Cal Ripken, Mr. GIDP). And if he’s OPS’ing over 900 who gives a shit about his strike outs?
"There is a value to breaking the string of losing seasons as an organization or as a franchise. But breaking that streak can’t come at the expense of doing what you need to do to get your franchise to the point where it can reach the postseason." ~Andy MacPhail
Rangers
What about Chris Davis (1B/2B in minors)? I haven’t looked at the numbers but I think he’s played pretty well while he’s been up and who knows about Blalock. The Strangers also have Nelson Cruz although he has failed miserably in the bigs. I kind of like this Mayberry kid...not Opie…nothing special but I’ve seen him play several times and like what I saw.
Ryan Roberts is a little older but he’s a 3B that has been ok.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
Oh
and with Nolan Ryan having more influence on the direction of the team maybe they’d give us Josh Hamilton for Danny C?
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
so it's not just me
Nolan Ryan does not seem like a genius or anything.
"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum
I actually
read something the other day that suggest Nolan hasn’t quite been able to wrangle control of the decision making powers yet. But I don’t necessarily think it is far fetched to think that some guys are just better Tractor Supply spokemen and strikeout machines than they are at making personnel decisions.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
if he’s OPS’ing over 900 who gives a shit about his strike outs?
no truer words have ever been spoke
Your voice of doom and gloom.
by Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball on Aug 8, 2008 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
More on Chris Davis
I didn’t realize he was doing this well. OPSing over 900 and he’s only 22. Gimme the cheaper (if that indeed turns out to be the case) Dunn and flip someone to TEX for this kid if he can keep it up.
http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=448801
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
at this point
Chris Davis is legit. Hes destroyed the minors in short time and has bashed 11 HRs in 37 games in the bigs. We just can’t “flip” someone to Texas to get him, unless by flipping you mean trading Wieters, Markakis, or Adam Jones.
re
he was a top prospect and blasted into the majors with a bang. I’m not saying he will have a hall of fame career or anything (though the chances of a good career are as good as any prospect alive right now). But my point was that the sleeper period of his career is over and that his value is through the roof right now.
C'mon
A. It’s Texas. B. It’s Texas. C. They have Chris Shelton on the AAA team…(kidding). Cabrera for Davis?
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
Chris Davis
don’t want to be offensive BP, but there’s no way in hell the Rangers would trade Chris Davis for Daniel Cabrera. probably no way they would trade him for Miguel Cabrera right now. Davis is, simply, one of the best true power prospects in the game.
and Daniel Cabrera is Bobby Witt.
UMTerp08 is correct. the Rangers are in pretty much the same boat as the O’s, they have some decent talent and a lot of problems. Davis is one of their better players already. he’s their Adam Jones.
Your voice of doom and gloom.
by Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball on Aug 8, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Did some
checking and I didn’t realize Davis was as highly rated of a prospect as he is. He was their #2 prospect behind Elvis Andrus going into this year according to baseball america. Wishful thinking I guess. Ramon Vazquez is older and I’m not sure how long Blalock is under contract or if they’ll just let him walk or what. Anrus is a AA SS who apparently isn’t much with the bat. He was rated their best defensive player.
No offense taken taken DaBB or UMterp. I get to see these guys quite a bit in AAA so I like talking about them. Watched Brad Penny make a re-hab start last week. Looked decent for being off a month.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
To Chicken To Say It...
I’ve been mulling this over for several weeks now but have been too gutless to write about it on my blog.
I agree.
Dunn is like a much, much better Mickey Tettleton.
fwiw...
now being linked on mlbtraderumors.com
i also took notice of the fact that this is oen of the few blogs for which masn provides a link.
foghat goes with everything--birdman, 5/16/08
"Dunn's not from Maryland! Dunn's not as good as Teixeira!""
Dunn will be a HELL OF A LOT cheaper than Tex, for the same power and a pretty good OBP. Dude’s career OBP is .380 with a career slugging of .520 for an OPS of .900. Sign me up.
"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby
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