Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles GameThread, Sep 28, 2008 1:35 PM EDT

GameThread: Blue Jays (85-76) @ Orioles (68-92)

by SC on Sep 28, 2008 3:32 AM EDT in Gamethreads Comment 36 comments

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, Sep 28, 2008 1:35 PM EDT

I'll let the dramatic voices of Sarah Brightman and Andrea Bocelli take you and this season away:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Jesse Litsch	12-9	28	27	2	2	0	0	169.0	175	78	69	20	38	94	3.67	1.26

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008 - Jeremy Guthrie	29	5	0	170	1	0	0	0	57	119	0	0	.200	.200	.400

1:35 on MASN2. Be there or be like the vast majority of Orioles fans, watching football or going to Home Depot while they have an economy-based sale.

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Screw it

I’m hungover and the weather is crappy. Redskins aren’t on until 4. Guts is on the mound and the lineup looks pretty decent.

I’ll watch the game.

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ravens don't play until MOnday

Might as well check it out…

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Sep 28, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i hate 4:15 games

It’s so useless. Right now I’m watching Jets-Cardinals on local TV and biding my time.

Seriously, Skins-Boys at the worst timeslot? sheesh.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Big day of baseball

If you’re a Mets, Brewers, ChiSox, or Twins fan. Not so much for us.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Sep 28, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Someday the Orioles will matter in September.

"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08

by getxstoked on Sep 28, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you say something

I just woke up from a nap…

by duck on Sep 28, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IN GUTS WE TRUST

Because that’s all we got these days.

"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08

by getxstoked on Sep 28, 2008 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Markakis totally should've won MVO

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

This is the last time we see some of these guys.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 28, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not meant as a reply.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 28, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He didn"t?

Who did?

by duck on Sep 28, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aubrey.

Totally deserving, really.

"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08

by getxstoked on Sep 28, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a terrible pick

But Markakis was better.

OBP still gets no respect.

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huff has 23 win shares

and nicky 22

Huff leads in VORP 59.2-48.2

Of course, VORP ignores defense. Which is why Win Shares are useful. Huff is basically useless defensively, whereas Nick provides good defense at a fairly easy position. Given these two numbers I don’t have a problem with Huff winning the award. I think he deserves it marginally more. But neither would be a bad choice, nor would Brian Bob, who provides excellent offense and above-average defense at a fairly hard position.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something is screwy with VORP positional adjustments

There’s no way that Huff should have that kind of lead on offense alone. AL DH’s have been really bad this year, so I think Huff is getting extra credit for being compared to them.

EQA (which measure offensive contributions without positional adjustments) has Markakis slightly ahead of Huff at .309 to .308.

Markakis clearly pulls ahead once you account for defense.

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not according to win shares

Huff has a narrow lead based on that. I think the defensive value of even a good right fielder is fairly limited. That’s not a knock on nick. It’s just the nature of the position.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

knock on nick

knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
knock on nick
nock on kni—FUCK!

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 28, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i actually almost made that mistake when typing that post

i had to edit myself. which is kinda dumb of me.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

win shares are worthless

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh?

Please explain why.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they don't agree

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 28, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, of course

unbacked statements and the stifling of debate are the lifeblood of the internet, after all.

by pipkin on Sep 28, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a lot of problems with Win Shares

-It uses an outdated version of runs created and rudimentary measures of defense.

-There are no “negative” win shares in James Win Shares system. The Hardball times has tried to add that into the system, but I think they are setting their replacement level too low. Somehow Luis Hernandez and Guillermo Quiroz accumulated positive Win Shares this year.

-They are context-dependent, so they give a lot of additional credit for clutch performance. That may or may not be valuable depending on what you are trying to measure, but I think there’s a lot more noise than value in clutch stats.

-They divide up actual team wins rather than give credit for contribution to runs scored and lost. An offensive player is penalized if his team’s bullpen blows numerous close games. John Lackey has more win shares than Jeremy Guthrie for exactly this reason.

-52% of total win shares are assigned to the offense. James himself has admitted that is arbitrary.

by dkdc on Sep 29, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this I can work with

I used the HBT’s win shares, for what it’s worth. They are at least better than the originals.

I don’t quite understand the context-dependent point, I must admit. I’m aware of the lack of compensation for teams that over- or under-perform their pythag records. I think this is valid but also fairly minor.

The arbitrary stuff is also worth taking into account.

That said, I think they are worth considering for several reasons. First of all, it is a single stat that accounts for defense. Now, the way it does it is not great, since James designed it to be useful historically and the stats for historical defensive performances are not ideal. But it is still a useful marker.

Your criticisms of WS are valid. But that doesn’t mean they are a useless stat.

I think, ultimately, we aren’t arguing by too much. Markakis is the better, younger player. But Huff had a fantastic year that was widely not expected. So I think the award is fine.

He’s no Jason Bartlett.

by pipkin on Sep 29, 2008 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absoutely

Going strictly by the numbers that I prefer to use (and no, I don’t prefer to use them just because they support my argument), Markakis wins by a nose. However, both Huff and Roberts are so close behind that they are within the margin of error and are perfectly defensible choices.

Also, there’s nothing wrong with injecting a little subjectivity, but my inclination would be to give that nudge to the budding young star over the resurgent veteran.

By the way, the context-dependent point is that Win Shares has a clutch adjustment that inflates or deflates a player’s win shares based on how well they have performed in the clutch. The reasoning is sound – players that performed well in the clutch have contributed more to their team’s wins, and therefore should be given more credit.

However, my personal preference is to give no credit (or minimal credit) for clutch performance because there is little evidence that performing well in the clutch is a persistant skill. Also, giving full credit to clutch leads to wacky results like awarding more win shares to Raul Ibanez than Alex Rodriguez.

by dkdc on Sep 29, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for what its worth

keith law has Brian Roberts as the 8th most valuable player in the AL. I guess that means he considers him the O’s MVP as well.

I’m guessing he’s going off defense as a tie breaker with Brian and Nicky, but I’d be interested to know for sure, ya know?

by pipkin on Sep 30, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and i asked him on his personal blog

he’ll probably answer, he’s good about that

by pipkin on Sep 30, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andy sounds like he gets it

Gonna be another interesting offseason.

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Were you there for Roberts' 48th double of the year?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 28, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Let’s keep Melvin, though.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 28, 2008 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

These Birdland commercials

Have become 100% pathetic.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 28, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good night, 2008 Orioles

by dkdc on Sep 28, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wellp,

I guess that’s that.

by Steve. on Sep 28, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How in the hell

does Jeremy Guthrie pitch as well as he did this year and end up 10-12.

That’s right, he plays for the O’s. Guts deserved better.

by duck on Sep 28, 2008 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've said it before...

He went to Stanford and he pitches to the O’s, there was another guy like that at one point…

"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08

by getxstoked on Sep 28, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Goodbye 2008 season.

My annual thanks goes to SC. I appreciate his fine efforts towards running this joint. Seriously, I don’t how I watched the O’s before this place opened. The season is done. At this point of the year, I’m usually thinking about next year’s roster and what needs to happen for the O’s to be good. I don’t feel doing it this year though. I guess I feel like the Red Sox and Rays are sort of like Robert DeNiro from Cape Fear. If you’ve seen the movie, I’m referring to the scene where Nick Nolte hired a few thugs to take out DeNiro. DeNiro though manages to fend off Nolte’s thugs and ends up growling, “I can out-read you. I can out-think you. And I can out-philosophize you. And I’m gonna outlast you,” into the night time air as a scared Nolte listened nearby hidden behind a trash can. That’s the Red Sox and Rays except replace “out think,” “out-philosophize,” etc with some baseball verbs. Maybe the O’s will buy some hired guns like Nolte did. Texiera comes to mind. But it won’t matter much. At least we have the best ballpark…. and Amber.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Sep 28, 2008 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs