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The race for O's MVP

Instead of doing a league-wide awards voting this season, I'm going to condense it down to just the O's. It'll make the awards easier to vote for and thus let you and me think a little less (which I see as a negative), but it'll also make it more personal. Being the Camden Chat MVP will mean a little more to us, I think.

We'll do all the awards -- the MVP will be named the Cal Ripken/Brooks Robinson Award, the "Cy Young" will be known as the Jim Palmer, and my vote for "Rookie of the Year" is the Gregg Olson Award. There will also be other awards, some funny, some serious, some stupid.

But how about MVP? It's an interesting race, and I think there are four strong candidates. This is more than we would have had most years.

Capt Aubrey Huff, DH

Pros: Huff's second season in Baltimore has been a massive success, and he's served as baseball's best designated hitter this season, which is shocking. Huff has hit .316/.372/.581 with 31 homers, 102 RBI, and 44 doubles. He's been a monster in the middle of the lineup. The Orioles have not had a power threat like Huff since Eric Davis in 1998, and Davis missed 31 games that season. (Yes, the O's have had good power seasons since then, but nobody has posted a slugging percentage this high since Davis' .582 mark a decade ago.)

There's also the fact that he's sort of a feel-good story. After calling Baltimore a "horses**t town" and making no friends in the fanbase during the 2007 offseason (and also running around all willy-nilly with the likes of the deplorable Melissa Midwest), Huff has become a fan favorite. You know why? He's earned it. This is another point in favor of only judging a book by how it hits. Huff could go on XM radio this November and personally call me a d-bag, and he's OK by me.

Cons: Huff doesn't play the field very often, with 20 games at first base and 21 at third scattered among his 136 appearances. This doesn't much matter to me, but things like this matter to some people. Huff was brought to Baltimore to hit. It took him a year, but he's done his job.

There also may still be some stragglers that don't much like Huff, and I guess that's understandable. You can cheer for his bat without cheering much for him. He can't take any comments he's ever made back, but he can do his best to atone for them.

36fc93a4b2ada2bb59b1575d4e2ecd6b-getty-80321893jr003_medium Nick Markakis, RF

Pros: Nick Markakis is the man. There was some talk around other team blogs this spring that we as Orioles fans overrated Markakis, and that he was a good but totally unspecial player. I disagreed -- I said he would get even better, that we had yet to see just how good he could be. I had my reasons for thinking this, such as the fact that he has always shown a knack for outperforming expectations.

Well, 2008 has done it again. No, Markakis isn't going to be slugging 30-40 homers a year, but he's going to be good for 40-50 doubles and a crap load of walks. He'd always shown a great eye, but this year he's really taken it to a new level, posting a .399 OBP with 87 walks thus far. A lot of this happened early in the season, when teams liberally pitched around Markakis because there was no one behind him. Huff's emergence has slowed it down some, but Markakis has also hit better as the season has gone on. A rough May (.231/.304/.442) hurts his overall numbers (.301/.399/.484, 43 doubles, 18 HR, 81 RBI).

Beyond his stick, Markakis contributes as a baserunner (just 10-for-16 stolen bases this season, but he doesn't make many mistakes) and with his excellent glove, which is legitimately Gold Glove-worthy. He's got a cannon arm, covers a lot of ground, and doesn't screw up. He's a smart, excellent ballplayer. And he's still just 24.

Cons: Markakis simply does not have Huff's numbers, and it'd be nice if he did hit more homers. Offensively, Huff has been way better than Markakis this season. Huff's 61.7 VORP trumps Nick's (41.5), and it's not even close. Other than that, not much to complain about.

340x_medium Jeremy Guthrie, RH

Pros: Ahhh...GUTS! The ace. The big guy. The dude that could do it two years in a row, unlike others.

Guthrie's 10-11 record this season is a crying shame. He went 7-5 last year, and that was a crying shame, because he pitched better than that. But this year, he's actually gotten a little bit better (or a little bit luckier, or whatever). His numbers said he would slip up a bit this season, even if he stayed pretty good. Well, he's repeated those numbers, essentially, and had about the same level of success.

What's refreshing with Guthrie is that every five days, no matter the circumstances, the team has a chance to win. They have not rewarded him with the win-loss record he deserves, but he's kept us in almost every game he's pitched. That's worth a lot.

You know what the coolest thing about Guthrie is? He doesn't complain much, and he's got perhaps the most reason to do so on the entire team. He takes the ball, does his best, and win or lose, he comes back next time it's his turn and does the same. He's a pro.

Cons: The W-L record doesn't matter if you're smart enough, which all of us are. He did all he could most nights, and either the offense or the bullpen didn't or couldn't back him up. Good pitchers on bad teams often don't have good records. And sometimes good pitchers on good teams aren't that inspiring W-L wise, either (take a look at Johan Santana this year).

The biggest con, really, is he's not on the field every day. Yes, he does his job, but he does it every fifth game. Which is his job. So it's kind of a catch-22. What can you do? Nature of the beast, y'all.

Capt Brian Roberts, 2B

Pros: In many ways, Roberts is the team's leader. He's the leadoff man, the one in charge of starting the game off right, either by getting on base or working the pitcher enough so that everyone else can get a read on him. He's the offensive firestarter, and a good one at that. He's having the second-best season of his career, and remains one of the elite second basemen in baseball.

Roberts is hitting .293/.376/.457 with 47 doubles and a 36-for-46 success rate stealing bases. He's pesky at the plate, classically so. He's more than happy to take a walk, but he can hit, and he's got gap power.

The biggest pro of Brian's season, though, has been his stunning success batting right-handed. For his career, he hits just .256/.335/.368 against left-handed pitching, numbers that are spiked by his marks this year: .321/.404/.484, numbers that soundly thrash his line against RHP (.282/.364/.445).

Cons: The bottom line is that even if you adjust for position, it's hard for Roberts to stack up to Huff. He's about the same as Markakis (Roberts' VORP is 46.0). He's a hell of a good player, and he's the type of guy that ages well. Though some question how long he'll stay in Baltimore, he'll probably be effective for another half decade, at least. He could be a strong leadoff man for another 10 years if he stays healthy.

There's still a good amount of ball to be played. Things can happen. Right now, I'd say Aubrey Huff has a healthy lead, but that's just me.

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One vote for Huff'nstuff

Markakis and Roberts went 0-for-8 last night and the O’s won by 11. Aubrey (and Dr. Jones, of course) put the damn team on his back, first game back from paternity leave.

Dude’s having a career year, and has the widest gap between what we expected and what he produced.

by Brotz13 on Sep 9, 2008 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

It's really close...

I think VORP is overstating the gap between Huff and the other two hitters. Among Baseball Prospectus stats, I prefer RARP (runs above replacement level), which has a better replacement level and more realistic positional adjustments:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/eqa2008.php#allead

It’s a dead heat between the three in this stat with Huff, Roberts, and Markakis ranking 10th, 13th, and 14th in the AL with 43.9, 42.2, and 41.5 RARP respectively.

Defensively, I think Markakis has been good enough to close and surpass that gap, so he deserves the offensive MVP for me.

Guthrie has had a great season, but his last two starts probably knock him out of contention.

My vote is for Markakis.

However, with 3+ weeks left to play and the closeness of this race, I may want change my vote by the end of the month.

I also think that all 4 of these guys deserve SOME award. Maybe the Eric Davis (comeback player) for Huff, the Jim Palmer for Guthrie, and the Steady Eddie for Roberts.

by dkdc on Sep 9, 2008 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Huff the Magic Dragon

So i’ll admit it. I’ve been in football mode since rutgers opened up a week and a half ago. The NFL has just amplified that. However, when I loaded up the game last night and saw Huff has his average up to .316 after hitting a granny, my jaw dropped. I mean, since when do we get a guy batting .316 with 31 hr’s, 102 rbi’s, 44 doubles, etc…? He’s my MVP. And btw, I think we could do alot worse then having Huff at 1st next year (maybe like having Millar at 1st). Just my opinion.

"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17

by daveh873 on Sep 9, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions  

i agree re: huff...

also, when was the last time orioles won awards? huffy has a legit shot at the silver slugger for dh; markakis and to a lesser extent, roberts have legit shots at gold gloves, i’d think.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 9, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eric Davis was awesome

You remeber when he had that 30 game hitting streak? That was really cool. We used to call him “E. D.”, and that was back before “E. D.” had come to mean “Erectile Dysfunction.”

I will never forgive the Viagra commercials for soiling Eric Davis’ good name.

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on Sep 9, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Man, I love Eric Davis

—he was a ballplayer’s ballplayer in my book—and wished he had been with the Os longer, but if he didn’t have ED, that might have been the only physical ailment he was spared.

by fishoutawata on Sep 9, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suppose you could argue for any of these guys

But for me it comes down to Markakis and Huff, with me leaning towards Huff. Bottom line is Huff has ignited this offense in a way I haven’t seen in forever. The level of confidence I feel when Huff is at the plate is astronomical. As for Nicky, his offensive numbers have once again been great, but like Scott said, they just can’t measure up to Huff’s. His defense is just amazing, though. Watching him play a ball off the wall and throw a laser to second base is like poetry. It’s too bad no one will run on him anymore. I think a lot can be said for a player who not only puts up the good numbers offensively, but who also plays excellent defense game in and game out. But I just feel like Huff’s offense overall is too much to ignore.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Sep 9, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

I have to vote for Huff, hotel room aside. The numbers are just too telling. And c'mon, I bet Nick would say the same.

Although I’m pretty sure he waqsn’t in the hotel room. Anyway, we should trade the MVP, of course; if we trade Nick, on the other hand, I swear— I swear— I will purchase a surface-to-Warehouse rocket launcher and turn everyone inside that place into toast. Very small pieces of toast.

Re Guts: Yep, a whole nother category, of course. I wouldn’t vote for him for MVP any more than I voted for him in the RoY contest. Pedroyer is a douche, but he was (is) a very good everyday player. There are occasional— very occasional— pitchers whose numbers and presence really make them deserve club or even league MVP awards (Jim Konstanty!) but the reason God created the Cy Young remains valid: You need another category of MVP for the non-everyday players. (Just as much as you need a category of hitter for them called the DH: pitchers at bat are like dogs walking on their hind legs— a few of them can do it, but you still ask yourself Why?)

 In any case, on the Pro side of the Guts ledger, don’t forget to include his best and most indicative league stat: QS!

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on Sep 9, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Offensive MVP...

Pick a SS. They’re all VERY OFFENSIVE!

But really, Huff.
Gold Glove, Kickass
ROY, is there anyone besides Dr. Jones?
CY Guts.

Kevbo: [to George Sherrill] George, you look a lot like Vin Diesel...

Flatbill: Let's get somethin' straight... Vin Diesel looks like me.

-From "The Making of Orioles Magic"

by dayzd toe on Sep 9, 2008 11:30 AM EDT reply actions  

ROY

Jones isn’t even a rook, technically. So the choices are:

Jim Johnson
Lou Montanez

…pretty much.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by Scott Christ on Sep 9, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

ROY

What, no love for Eider Torres?

by Brotz13 on Sep 9, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if Jones was a rook...

I’d still give it to JJ. The guy came from nowhere to have a friggen’ awesome year.

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on Sep 9, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aubrey Huff

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 9, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Gotta hand it to him this year ...

This has gotta be Huff’s year. He helped his case with that Salami last night. Guts’ll get the Jim Palmer, natch.

by cubotic on Sep 9, 2008 12:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Markakis vs Huff

Nick isn’t getting enough love here.

Huff and Markakis have similar numbers for the most part. Is 13 extra HRs really that much more valuable than 40 extra walks and excellent defense?

by dkdc on Sep 9, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

MVP

HAS TO BE HUFF-with honorable mention to Melvin Mora,I find it hard to believe
nobodys even mentioned him.Huffs pre season antics are to be forgiven.

by hagers on Sep 9, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Forgiven, yes

But I still don’t have to like him.

He does have my MVP vote, however.

"Whether your name is Gehrig or Ripken, DiMaggio or Robinson, or that of some youngster who picks up his bat or puts on his glove, you are challenged by the game of baseball to do your very best day in and day out. That's all I've ever tried to do."

by spike2131 on Sep 9, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huff ain't one of the Old Colts...

But we can’t hold that against him. he’s totally got my vote.

1933 was a bad year

by Senatorrosewater on Sep 9, 2008 1:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Huff-n-stuff

One of the things about an MVP is that he makes players around him better or more effective. I think that has definitely been true of the Huffster this year, most especially in regards to Nicky. My only reservation is that we tend to undervalue defense, and should probably add runs saved to the ones Nicky scored or drove in. But a lot of Nicky’s runs scored are Huff’s RBIs, so…
BTW, I am in favor of making Huff an everyday 1B or 3B—he did fine when called upon.

by fishoutawata on Sep 9, 2008 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Had Moral played as well all year

as he did in the month after the All Star break, he’d be a lock.
But Huff deserves the honor. I think even the players would say that, unanimously.

by Lothar on Sep 9, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I meant Mora, not Moral

Must be a Freudian slip.
Maybe the team will have, ahem, no Morals next year?

by Lothar on Sep 9, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Huff

Hate to say it, but it’s true. He’s been a beast with the bat and there’s no way around it.

by Jonny Pops on Sep 9, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Markakis

He’s on Huff’s tail with offensive production, but is way more valuable in the field. 15 OA means runners have got to respect the arm. If only he wouldn’t have had such a cool bat early this year.

Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.

by CoachOfEarl on Sep 9, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Guthrie is mos valuable

in the sense that if he weren’t on the team, we’d be setting records for highest team ERA. Not only is he a kickass pitcher who always gives us a chance to win, but without him, the bullpen would be even more overworked, and therefore even more sucky.

Nick Markakis: The Actual Greek God of Walks

by wickedwitch on Sep 9, 2008 9:00 PM EDT reply actions  

aub.

Yes, I should say that, which, I should say that.

by thewaywardO on Sep 10, 2008 8:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Kakes

I think Huff is the hands-down recipient based on the responses this far, but I’m going with Markakis. I put a lot of weight on his outfield assists (probably lending more to a GG than MVP), but I think his production at the plate and in right field have both been more than admirable.

by blawk359 on Sep 11, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

New MVP

Dont you think that Garret Olson should have a chance at the MVP. He is the only pitcher with a winning recond with a least 10 starts. The only problem is that he is only 3 and 4 in his last 10 starts.

by JZartman on Sep 12, 2008 8:24 AM EDT reply actions  

huff all the way

Aubrey Huff has completely shattered all expectations this season. How he can have those kinds of offensive stats this year is made even more remarkable by the fact that there is no one hitting behind him, yet he continues to crush opposing pitching. If everyone on the team continues to perform at a similar level until the end of the season, he has to be considered the Orioles MVP of 2008.

BTW, I sure would not mind him manning 1B for ‘09 regardless of age or contract. It’s worth it. As an AL team, the O’s need to have some sort of power threat in the lineup to be competitive each day, and if he’s not there next season, the team will have very little to work with, barring a big signing or trade. The number 2 & 3 hitters in the lineup will also not see as many good pitches to hit.

by dfw_o's_fan on Sep 13, 2008 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

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