Looking at the 40-man Roster

by dkdc on Sep 9, 2008 11:14 AM EDT Comment 48 comments

It's mid-September in Baltimore, which means it's time for Andy MacPhail to start thinking about the offseason. The first order of business is to clean up the 40-man roster in preparation for the Rule 5 draft in early December.

The Orioles have 46 men on their 40-man roster right now (those extra 6 are on the 60-day DL), and they will need to add 5 prospects to the extended roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The 60-day DL disappears for the offseason in October, so the Orioles will need to prune at least 11 players next month - and more if they sign any free agents.

Here's how I see it.

Under Contract (6)
Brian Roberts
Aubrey Huff
Ramon Hernandez
Melvin Mora
Jamie Walker
Danys Baez

The Orioles have just 6 players currently under contract for 2009, and all of them are due to be free agents after 2009. The top 4 guys on the list are candidates to be traded, and the bottom two are candidates to be cut (a la Gibbons) if they don't earn a spot in spring training.

Arbitration-eligible (6)
Nick Markakis
Jeremy Guthrie
Luke Scott
George Sherrill
Chris Ray
Daniel Cabrera

Markakis, Sherrill, and Ray will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Guthrie and Scott should also qualify for the first time under the super-two rule. Cabrera enters his second year of arbitration and he's the only member of this group who has any chance of being non-tendered. I expect all 6 will be Orioles next year.

Likely Major Leaguers (8)
Adam Jones
Jim Johnson
Matt Albers
Dennis Sarfate
Garrett Olson
Radhames Liz
Randor Bierd
Guillermo Quiroz

These players are all virtual locks to make the opening day roster (if healthy). All of them will earn close to the major league minimum. All 6 of the pitchers could theoretically fit in either the rotation or the bullpen. Johnson and Sarfate are out of options.

Prospects (6)
Brian Matusz
Chorye Spoone
David Hernandez
Brad Bergesen
Nolan Reimold
Mike Costanzo

Matusz is already on the 40-man because of his major league contract, and the others will need to be added to the 40-man to protect them from the rule 5 draft. I don't see any of these guys making the major league club out of spring training, but some of them could push for spots later in the season.

AAA Depth (7)
Troy Patton
Lou Montanez
Jim Miller
Kam Mickolio
Scott Moore
Jim Hoey
Hayden Penn

All of these guys have a shot at making the opening day roster. Patton, Moore, Hoey, and Penn are coming off serious injuries, and the others will have to prove themselves in spring training. Moore and Penn are out of options, so they will be exposed to waivers if they don't make the opening day roster.

Fringe Depth (7)
Alberto Castillo
Lance Cormier
Brian Bass
Bob McCrory
Brandon Fahey
Brian Burres
Rocky Cherry

These guys will round out the 40-man roster and are on the cusp of being cut. If the Orioles sign any free agents or need to free up room to make a rule 5 pick of their own, these guys will be the first to go. Burres and Fahey are out of options.

Likely to be cut (7)
Oscar Salazar
Chris Waters
Omir Santos
Alfredo Simon
Jeff Fiorentino
Fredy Deza
Adam Loewen

These players can fight for a spot on the Fringe Depth list, but most of them will be cut shortly after the World Series in order to get the roster down to 40. Loewen is obviously a bit of a special case, but he needs to come off the 40-man because he is out of options.

Free Agents (4)
Juan Castro
Alex Cintron
Jay Payton
Kevin Millar

These players are currently on the 40-man, and they will be eligible to file for free agency. I don't expect any of them will be invited back on a major league deal.

Matt Wieters (1)
Matt Wieters

Wieters may make the team out of spring training, but the Orioles won't have to add him to the 40-man until the last minute, so he's not going to affect their roster planning over the offseason.

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

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Comments

Nice write-up as usual, dkdc

A couple quick things.

-Cormier won’t be cut, Trembley really likes him and he is semi useful.
-Reimold could make the opening day roster if he has a nice stint in the AFL and shows up for ST.
-Guthrie is eligible for super two?

Free Agents (4)
Juan Castro
Alex Cintron
Jay Payton
Kevin Millar

These players are currently on the 40-man, and they will be eligible to file for free agency. I don’t expect any of them will be invited back on a major league deal.

I wouldn’t be surprised if two of those guys are on the team next year.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 9, 2008 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree on Cormier. I have these groups roughly in order, so Cormier is one of the safer guys in the fringe group.

Reimold is going to have to blow up spring training to have a shot at making the team. His odds are better if the O’s don’t sign a first baseman.

Guthrie will have 2 years, 130 days of service after this season. That’s right on the cusp of the cutoff, which has been 2 years, 128 days on average. He could squeak by, though.

I may be guilty of wishful thinking on the 4 pending free agents, but Millar is the only one who would conceivably get a major league deal, and I doubt they will re-sign him until after Tex signs elseehere.

by dkdc on Sep 9, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

I mean the team is going to have to make a decision on a fourth outfielder with Payton gone and if they don’t like Montanez then Reimold may be one of the only viable options, especially for left. And yeah, I figured that if Guthrie was eligible for super two he must be just squeaking by.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 10, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have

there been talks of moving Reimold to 1st? Sorry if this has been addressed. I pretty much gave up, much like the O’s, at the start of September.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Sep 12, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it

He’s a good enough outfielder, so there’s no reason to move him to 1B where his bat wouldn’t play as well. I think they’d try him at 3B first.

I could see Scott being moved to 1B at some point – it doesn’t hurt that he’s LH.

by dkdc on Sep 12, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect either Castro or Cintron might be back at some point

Though maybe start the year in the minors? I’m guessing we’ll have a bunch of fringy infielders competing for the SS job again. Millar I could see on a minor league deal, though I’m guessing he still thinks he deserves a major league deal (and I can’t really blame him. he was a starting first baseman this year, after all).

Otherwise, I think its a pretty good analysis.

by pipkin on Sep 9, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lots of possibilities...

But the way you lay it out here, it look like it would be hard to be less stable, and all around worse next year.

But anything’s possible I guess.

1933 was a bad year

by Senatorrosewater on Sep 9, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

11 players

We only get to prune 11 players? I could name more than that to get off the roster!

Great write up btw!

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Sep 9, 2008 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Penn

I wonder whether the O’s will package him as a sweetener in some deal. Not sure if any teams even view him as a sweetener. Otherwise he must have a decent spring to justify his continued existence on the roster. If deals come along, I expect the O’s to throw in some of their pitching. They have nothing else to ante up.

All in all, your write up shows just how much the O’s have to cut.

by drj on Sep 9, 2008 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Has Millar fleeced the management?

I just have this sinking feeling that we will keep Millar next year based on dumb, feel good reason instead of cutting/trading him for baseball reasons.

We should cut Payton also, he seems like a clubhouse malcontent, but I am afraid he might be around too.

I want at least 5 new faces on the 40 man roster by next season in addition to the changeover listed here. That won’t happen though.

How could he be doing his job when he didn't throw me out of the game after the things I called him?

On arguing with ump Russ Goetz.

Mark Henry Belanger

by Birdland in NC on Sep 10, 2008 7:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Payton is a Free Agent

And he’s been pissed all year that he is not a starter. There is no way he comes back to Baltimore regardless of whether they want him back or not.

by PWubbs on Sep 10, 2008 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Payton thinking he’s a starter and bitching about not being one is exactly why he won’t be long for the baseball world. Also, because he sucks.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 10, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really...

he’s maybe (MAYBE) better than average in the field, but not nearly good enough to comepnsate for his lack of offensive production. what a bum.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 10, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Lou (or hopefully Reimold) is being groomed for Payton's role next year.

And Jay has not surprisingly been bitchy about being a back up. Has there been a bitchy quotes from Jay in the Sun this year? I think maybe there’s been 1 bitchy quote, if that, but I can’t remember.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Sep 10, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not really...

i mean, neither of those guys are really “defensive specialists.” that being said, i think it’s sort of silly to draw those bright line distinctions. i think for the purpose of spelling doc jones, every now and then markakis could probably handle center then montanez/reimold would take over right. either should be able to handle left, as well.

and jay really uncorked a bitchfest last week. roch picked it up, but i don’t think the sun even bothered.

“dog bites man!”

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 10, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

I would rather see Reimold get regular ABs anyways. If he’s not going to start in BAL, then I would rather see him play everyday in AAA rather than rot on the bench. Given that Montanez isn’t all that great with the glove, I don’t think he’ll make a great 4th OF anyways especially given his minor league track record.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Sep 10, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think that's right...

however, i can see fio being a short term 4of guy. i also wonder if, memlo starts doing spot duty in of if costanzo makes the team.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 10, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

melmo will shit a brick

if they try to make him do that. remember? he’s a third baseman now. He’ll whine like crazy if anyone makes him move for anything other than a mid-game emergency.

by pipkin on Sep 10, 2008 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll go for quality over quantity

Jay has bitched all year (so much I’ve taken to calling him the Matt Kenseth of the Orioles, ‘cause never is ever HIS fault, you know), but here’s his latest and greatest from Roch’s blog.

Jay Payton broke into the majors with the New York Mets on May 11, 1998. The Orioles are his sixth organization. And these last few weeks, he says, are the worst he’s ever experienced.

Payton admitted tonight that it’s become a struggle to maintain his focus, especially after being told yesterday that he probably won’t get many at-bats the rest of the season, as manager Dave Trembley chooses to go with some of the younger players.

“I feel like I’ve been swinging the bat good, I’ve been hitting balls at guys left and right, and mentally it gets draining,” he said. "You sit out there and play defense forever and it takes its toll, and right now I think a lot of guys are having a hard time with the mental aspect.

“This is the worst I’ve ever experienced in my big league career, just these last 2 1/2, three weeks, what we’re going through right now. I’ve never had to deal with anything like this, but that’s part of the game. If you get through it and battle through it, it’ll make you stronger and make you better.”

If not, you might forget the number of outs. Payton was doubled off first base to end the game on Luke Scott’s fly ball to the center field fence.

“I had a mental cramp,” he said. “I looked up at the scoreboard and could have sworn it said two outs and I just took off running. I should know better than to look at the scoreboard because it’s wrong 50 percent of the time here, but that’s my fault. I made a mistake. If that’s going to be the headline tomorrow, that’s cool.”

Roch states later that the scoreboard was, in fact, correct in the number of outs listed.

"I wasn't here for the losing years. But it feels a little like the days with Earl in charge and John Lowenstein smashing birthday cakes in the middle of the clubhouse with a bat." - John "T-Bone" Shelby

by duck on Sep 10, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be fair to jay

He’s bitching about the losing as much as the decrease in playing time.

Wolf, wolf, wolf.

by birdman on Sep 10, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be fairer to jay

I looked up at the scoreboard and could have sworn it said two outs and I just took off running

His vision is prolly deteriorating since he is in his mid-50s.

Jay Payton, just one more player who play their last game as an Oriole…

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Sep 10, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

right on

I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how few times it has happened (or at least made news). I think he’s kept his overall bitchiness under control this year.

Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark

by BPinOK on Sep 12, 2008 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw the FanPost title

and thought to myself….

“Do I have to?”

by duck on Sep 11, 2008 8:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

JAY PAY

…should hit the bricks, sure enough.

Speaking of feelgood reasons for Millar, I’ve been down the park and seen him waving at the “Kevin’s Cowboys” cheering section pregame, and letting his own (adorable) kids run the bases post-game.

I’ve taken to calling the guy the “real life Kevin Costner”. That’s not really a compliment though.

One guy I’d like to see next year though is Lance Cormier. Middle relievers never gets no love, and he’s earned a spot next year, IMHO.

1933 was a bad year

by Senatorrosewater on Sep 12, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Salazar & Waters

I’m NOT writing this because Waters pitched out of this world last night. But I do think that for the amount of time he and Salazar have seen this year in Baltimore, they haven’t done too bad. I’d like to see these 2 back.

The third person I’d like to see get a chance is Jeff Fiorentino. He played fine (what was it? 4-5 years ago under Mazzilli?) Fiorento, Jones, & Markakis in the outfield — pretty good D & improving O.

I’m sure this will get killed, but it’s how I see it.

PLEASE -- JUST PLEASE THROW STRIKES.

by oriolepete on Sep 17, 2008 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

As I just said in another thread, I’d rather have Chris Water, who has a miniscule chance of being an impact player come 2011, stinking it up than a Jamie Walker or Danys Baez because they have NO shot at being an impact player come 2011.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 17, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fiorentino

He’s almost certainly a goner. There are only three healthy players on the 40-man who are not in Baltimore right now: Fio, Deza, and Matusz.

If the O’s had any plans to give Fio a job at a backup job next year, you’d have to assume that he’d be getting some at bats this month.

Since I typed up this list, a few names have probably switched between “Likely to be Cut” and “Fringe Depth”.

I think I’d bump up Waters and Salazar, and bump down Cherry and Burres (or Fahey).

by dkdc on Sep 17, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fio

baseball-reference’s minor league affiliate has him playing 8 games this year with Oakland’s AAA team. What’s the deal with that?

I was gonna bag on the dude’s minor league stats, but they’re really not awful, and he’s never been given too much of a shot in the majors.

He doesn’t look like much though, and I bet that still holds some weight with some people (sadly). Or maybe I’m attacking a straw man. Obviously (hopefully) the Orioles know more than we do. Maybe the guy’s like, a dick. You never know, I guess.

by pipkin on Sep 17, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The O’s released him. The A’s picked up him and then released him. We picked him up again.

Zartan says, "Sign Dan Johnson."

by birdman on Sep 18, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

poor Jeff

That’s a shitty move to have to make twice in a little while.

by pipkin on Sep 18, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he also went through the Cincinnati system!

He’s a very, very spare part. He’s an emergency reserve outfielder on the major league level. Most of his baseball career going forward is going to be shitty moves.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 18, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I know

But still. Screech! no? Ok I’ll go.

I mean, this wouldn’t be baseball if we didn’t love scrawny white guys just a little more, would it?

by pipkin on Sep 18, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Waters is 28

Two good games among a bunch of junk is the best he’s ever going to do.

But I like him a lot more now that I’ve connected him with Boomhauer. Dang ol LORD man. Talkin bout…thankyou.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 18, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Fio

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
2005 BAL 13 44 7 11 2 0 1 5 16 2 10 1 0 .277 .364 .250
2006 BAL 19 39 8 10 2 0 0 7 12 7 3 1 0 .375 .308 .256

The thing to remember about Fio is that he is still only 25 yrs old and was 22 when he was called up from A-ball. And honestly, he did a good job considering all he was put into.
Ever since he was sent back to the minors a few years back, he has dealt with injuries. I say give the kid a real chance & then cut him loose if it doesn’t work. How long did we keep Jay Gibbons around? And for what? A possibility of 30 HR’s.

PLEASE -- JUST PLEASE THROW STRIKES.

by oriolepete on Sep 18, 2008 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well, if i didn't say this before, i meant to...

do you think he would’ve been any worse than payton? i mean, payton has a little pop from the right side, but no OB skills anymore. fio has no pop, but at least knows how to take a fucking walk!

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 18, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can Fiorentino cover center in a pinch? That was the most valuable part of Jay Payton this year, not embarrassing himself in center field.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 18, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which reminds me...

I was at a game in 2004 where I had the distinct pleasure of watching Karim Garcia hold down CF for the Birds.

Y’know, if you need any reminders that this team is in better shape than it once was.

by Brotz13 on Sep 18, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can't he?

i thought he could adequately cover all three spots? i still think if montanez or reimold is your 4th, you could use them to spell markakis and scott when need be and throw markakis out in center for doc jones once every couple of weeks. i mean, i think he’s a decent enough athlete that he’s not going to be a liability out there.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 18, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, I dunno if he can or can't

I’m no genius, and I must admit I stopped following Fiorentino very closely agese ago.

I’m also fairly certain Markakis could handle CF every day if the need ever arose. He tracks balls really well, is a good athlete, great arm. I don’t advocate putting him there given that we have Adam Jones, but Markakis in CF probably never hurts anyone.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 18, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agese?

I talk with so much emphaseese.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 18, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i mean...

it’s really a matter of roster construction strategy, isn’t it? i mean, i really favor markakis in occasional spot duty and keeping reimold and/or montanez, but trmbley strikes me as the guy that has a ahrd on for “defensive specialists.”

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Sep 18, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I think Nick can do it. He did it two years ago, right?

Unless he gains some weight for more power, which really doesn’t seem to be his game thus far, he should be fine.

But Davey boy does seem to love to make those moves.

by pipkin on Sep 18, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Fiorentino

I agree with what you guys are saying with the 4 outfielders we have right now. To answer if Jeff could handle CF? He did at age 22 coming straight from A-ball.

And right now I’m pissed off at myself (and you guys are included). What the hell are we arguing about the outfield for? Besides our catcher in 2010 (Wieters) and a few other players (& I mean “a few”), our outfield is as good as it’s been in years. We need not mess with it. As bad as Payton was, I still liked him coming in every 8th inning for Luke. So he thinks he’s a starter — well “See-ya”. Now we have Montanez — who I think looks like a good solid ball player. I’d like to see him beat out Scott for LF next year.

And is it just me or does Montanez remind anyone of a younger Seattle version of A-rod? Talent wise? — NO. Just his stance in the box. Body tone? Maybe it’s just the #3. who knows.

Hey, for the last time. I like Jeff Fiorentino. He got a raw deal. Hopefully he’ll latch on to a good team (meaning one I respect — so I can root for him — like the Twins)

L8.

PLEASE -- JUST PLEASE THROW STRIKES.

by oriolepete on Sep 18, 2008 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You want Montanez to beat out Scott

I sure don’t. Cuz when Montanez goes into the shitter then we’ll have lost some of Scott’s potential contributions. Luke’s a ballplayer. Let him play.

by pipkin on Sep 18, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My assumption

Is that he’s figuring on Huff at 1B and Luke at DH. Of course, Luke seems to be better defensively than Lou, so if those are the guys you’re going with, I’d just as soon flip ’em.

by Brotz13 on Sep 19, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luke .v Lou

They both have played well in the OF, but just watching Scott fielding… he scares me. It’s like “that guy” you put in the rightfield on your softball team. The ball is hit to him & you hear yourself saying, “Oh, god, please catch it.”

Luke would be a good DH, but then I think I would compare him to Gibbons.

PLEASE -- JUST PLEASE THROW STRIKES.

by oriolepete on Sep 19, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Luke doesn’t have much range and would probably be better suited as a DH, but he’s got a decent arm and does his job just fine. He is no detriment to the team in left field, particularly if the replacement is a going nowhere time-waster like Lou Montanez.

Y’know, I don’t mean to harsh buzzes, but people have a habit of getting excited over bad players here in Birdland, probably because we don’t know any better since we’ve had so few good players we tend to forget what they look like.

"Yesterday I was lying, today I am telling the truth." -- Bob Arum

Camden Chat
Bad Left Hook

by SC on Sep 19, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs