ESPN Just Came Out With Their Latest Top 100 Prospects List
Take A Guess Who's Number 1
"Fight The Power!"
10 months ago
NawlinsOriole
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Weiters is looking mean and lean
and damn, he looks good in that uniform. Welcome to the future.
by PhilR8 on Jan 22, 2009 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Please let him be right about the 3 other O's in the top 100.
If so it looks like two number 2/3s and a number 4. That would be awesome to have 2 years from now.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta I’m guessing? I’m not an insider.
I suppose it’s too much to hope for a #1 out of this deal somewhere. It’s going to be touch to compete without one though. I bet they never really project anyone to be a No. 1 starter though. It just kind of magically happens.
by math_geek on Jan 22, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah you guessed correctly.
I think he projected Matusz as a 1/2 so I guess we can hope?
But seriously if those guys pan out as a solid 2, 3, and 4 (a pipe dream I know), then we can get an ace in the free agent market. Most teams with “real” aces don’t grow them from the farm system anyways. Or if they do they only have them until they reach free agency. No shame in buying an ace once we’re close.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and we have the fifth pick in 2009
and probably will pick there again in 2010 so we have a chance to add to this system pretty quickly.
The Orioles farm system was ranked 10th. Erbe, Nolan, Snyder, Britton, Hoes and Avery completed Law’s top ten. No mention of Billy. It just takes one good year to move up big time.
by sanders833 on Jan 22, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What game was that?
Wasn’t it against the Yankees?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 22, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Lineup looks pretty good
1) Brian Roberts
2) Adam Jones
3) Nick Markakis
4) Aubrey Huff
5) Matt Weiters
6) Luke Scott
7) Melvin Mora
8) Felix Pie
9) Cesar Izturis
Too bad there’s no pitching.
by math_geek on Jan 22, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Get rid of
Mora/Roberts/Huff, then we’re talking.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 22, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Roberts had the best OBP of any leadoff hitter in baseball last year
Not too shabby, eh? Although I’d love to flip him to a contender for some younger guys…. sorry, BRob. It’s not you, it’s me.
by PhilR8 on Jan 22, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we were close
Roberts and Huff would be great pieces, but we’re not, so get rid of them. Mora doesn’t have a place on any team, but that’s a different story.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 22, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have to have some serious offers to part with guys like Roberts and Huff though.
Can’t just trade them for the sake of trading them. If we’re not getting what we want in return then we should hold onto them.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for Roberts
Gavin Floyd is a serious offer.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 22, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fine, but it’s still a serious offer.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 22, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True, but I don't think it's a good one for the O's.
Floyd has proved mediocre thus far and doesn’t appear to have a ceiling too much higher than what he’s shown. So in 4 years when everybody seems to agree we’ll be prepared to compete he’ll be 30 years old and a mediocre back of the rotation starter who will be expensive by that point. If we’re going to part with arguably our 2nd or 3rd best player I would like to get more long-term value.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather have a 30 years old Floyd than a 34 year old Roberts.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 22, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not me. Roberts much more valuable than a mediocre #4 and has shown no signs of slowing down.
While Floyd has shown now signs of being anything better.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most 2B slow down by 34. Some even fall off a cliff like Roberto Alomar.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 22, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most? I'd like to see some kind of analysis other than naming one player.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 22, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2B aging curves
This is pretty well-established stuff. See here for an analysis of Brian Roberts
Right now his OPS+ is 121. In the projection under unlimited number of at bats, this is what we could expect:
2008 110 OPS+
2009 109 OPS+
2010 103 OPS+
2011 94 OPS+
2012 90 OPS+
2013 73 OPS+
2013 doesn’t look pretty. So yeah, I’ll take Floyd over Roberts then.
.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what makes a projection a projection?
Also no response about Alomar?
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also even Alomar (since you threw that name out there) had arguably one of his best seasons at age 33.
I never said anything about his age 33 season. I said he fell off a cliff at 34. Maybe fell off a cliff is a bit too strong, his age 34 season is when he started to suck. And he was pretty much done the next year.
You know what makes a projection a projection?
Of course, it’s a projection. Take it for what it’s worth. If you think it’s garbage, fine. But that link above mentions other 2Bs who started to decline in their early 30s. It’s really not that crazy of thought that B-Rob will start declining soon and possibly very fast.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well his age 33 year would be the 3rd out of a 4 year contract!
Getting a career year out of Roberts for 3/4s of a contract would be a much better value to the O’s than 4 years of a mediocre number 4 starter.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You’re making a HUGE assumption that B-Rob will sign an extension. I’m fine with signing B-Rob to a 2, maybe 3, year extension. But that scenario doesn’t appear to be the case. I think I remember Rosenthal or Stark reporting that MacPhail is starting to feelers again for Roberts. MacPhail is still saying the standard, “We would like to lock up Roberts” blah blah blah. Between 1 year of Roberts or 4 years of Floyd, the later is a no brainer.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well yeah but if he walks we'd get a sanwich pick.
I’d almost prefer that to 4 years of a mediocre #4 who’s going to be increasingly expensive since he’s arbitration eligible next year.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you’re a slam dunk superstar (which Roberts isn’t), comp picks don’t seem like a guarantee anymore given what’s happened this offseason.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 Type A Free Agents
Raul Ibanez
Orlando Hudson
Derek Lowe
Oliver Perez
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Francisco Rodriguez
Ben Sheets
CC Sabathia
Russ Springer
Mark Texeira
Jason Veritek
Orlando Hudson
Brian Fuentes
Adam Dunn
Juan Cruz
Orlando Cabrera
AJ Burnett
Bobby Abreu
Doesn’t seem particularly exclusive to me if Juan Cruz and Jason Veritek qualify. Roberts just has to be ranked in the top 30% of 2bmen. Even if he’s a Type B (top 50% of 2B which would be unimaginable) they get a sandwich round pick – just not an additional first round pick.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My bad, I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. I don’t doubt that Roberts will achieve either Type A or Type B free agent status. What I’m worried about is the changing attitudes of teams towards protecting draft picks. Teams are much more reluctant to give up a draft pick in order to sign a free agent now. Orlando Cabrera and Juan Cruz are still free agents for this very reason. Was Orlando Hudson offered arbitration? If so, he’s another case in point.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think no team will sign Roberts???
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what type of year he has. If he has a strong year, I think we could offer arbitration, he could decline, and then another team would sign him. A slightly down year, I could the see the O’s not even offering arbitration. Look, I’m just saying getting the draft picks is no slam dunk.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also Orlando Hudson dislocated his wrist and missed the end of the year, so maybe that's not the best case in point...
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
same thing could happen to B-Rob….
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So by that logic you'd never sign anybody.
Doesn’t change the fact that you shouldn’t use Hudson as a proxy for determining whether Roberts would signed as a free agent. A healthy Roberts gets signed immediately.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So by that logic you’d never sign anybody.
No, but older players tend to be more of a injury risk.
A healthy Roberts gets signed immediately.
Sure, if he puts a great season, Roberts will be signed by another team next offseason.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This has been fun - I'm going to sleep. Have a good night.
Just to be clear – here is my thinking:
I would rather have Roberts for one year with the chance of 1) trading him for a package of prospects, 2) signing him to an extension, or 3) offering him arbitration after another good year and either having him for another year or having him walk and getting at least one sandwich pick and probably also a first round pick as opposed to having 4 years (including 3 expensive ones) of Floyd.
by O'sFan21 on Jan 23, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right on brother.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tampa and Minn
would probably let Brian walk…in the end they have payroll flexibility and restock the farm.
I would be ok if we offered a four year deal that replaced his 2009 deal. But an 11 million salary in that fifth year may be an albatross for maybe a team that needs to make moves to actually be a contender…
Five years from now we know that Brian and Nick would be making over 25 million in salary and maybe even 30 I dont have Nick’s numbers in front of me.
Biran’s contract is a slipery slope.
by sanders833 on Jan 24, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course
maybe the Orioles could front load the contract.
We know in 2010 and 2011 the O’s should have some really low payrolls. Why not load the salary in those years and lower the commitment in the out years? Just a thought.
by sanders833 on Jan 24, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except I don't think he was really offered
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 22, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, yes, it should say it was rumored.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
by birdman on Jan 23, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
if locking him up for a few more years this off-season would make him more attractive on the trade market. Initially I heard a few teams were worried about his impending free-agency, but those comments have stopped, so now I don’t know.
by The Sicilian on Jan 22, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on....
the point was it’s a good lineup NOW, not “how do we best build for the future.” Obviously if we can trade Mora, Roberts, and Huff that would be a GOOD THING™ but it’s not likely to happen due to insufficient offers for the players, so be happy that we at least have a good lineup to watch for the whole freaking summer.
by math_geek on Jan 22, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No matter what you type
you will never escape all the pessimistic ‘we are always gonna suck’ attitude around here.
"...that our flag was still there...OOOOOO say does that star spangled..."
by sickuvitall on Jan 22, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bah
Who needs pitching when you have the best outfield in the league? I know defense can’t prevent walks, but they can steal some short-tape home runs. Let’s add thirty feet to the left field wall and we can let Guts and Uehara pitch underhand.
by blawk359 on Jan 23, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The caption should read
“Fight The Power!”
by blawk359 on Jan 23, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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