Thoughts on a potential Roberts-for-Floyd, etc. package
Since the rumors are rolling, and I think this one seems more legit than most, I've got a feeling this really could be the one Big Offseason Move the O's take part in.
Yes, Virginia, that means Ramon Hernandez-for-Ryan Freel does not count as a "big move."
Roch's idea to pick up Chris Getz along with Gavin Floyd is a very good one, and as he reported, one that makes a lot of sense. I'm not the world's biggest Ryan Freel fan, but he does have a lot of value as a guy that can fill in anywhere, get on base OK, and run. And even if Getz (who could maybe play in the majors right now) didn't work out at all, you might lose some value from what he can do, but Freel can play second every day.
Brian Roberts isn't going to be here for the long haul. I'm in the minority that says we should try to keep him, because I think he'll age very well. He takes walks and runs -- those guys hold off Father Time fairly nicely. But it's not realistic, probably, so should he be traded, this is the type of deal that sounds good.
Gavin Floyd is still a minor wild card, but I don't think that's a huge deal. I could be wrong, of course, but Floyd was 25 last season and had a very nice year. Floyd's 2008 (3.84/1.26, 119 ERA+, 206.3 innings, 119 ERA+) was on par with Guthrie, and those two would make a nice 1-2 punch for '09 and beyond.
The worry that Floyd tanked so badly in Philadelphia doesn't really concern me. He was young, the pressure was huge (don't forget he was a hyped prospect), and it happens. The change of scenery served him nicely, and we know he can pitch in the American League. Plus he's got years to get even better than he is now. He still has a lot of upside.
I'd hate to see Brian Roberts go. I really would. He's on the short list of my absolute favorite players in baseball, and the thing is, I think he'd be one of my favorite players no matter what team he was on. I just flat-out like watching Brian play.
I think the White Sox would be a super fit for Roberts, as he would provide them with a hell of a leadoff man to get set the table for Quentin and Dye and Thome.
He'd also go over like gangbusters with White Sox fans, who love their "grinders." Brian's an actual grinder, in that he plays hard every day and gets dirty about 75 percent of those days, and he's also actually good. He's a hustle machine, but he's also an All-Star caliber player.
It kind of has to happen, doesn't it? Those midseason rental trades aren't bringing a ton back anymore, so if we're going to keep thinking we should move him, now's the time to do it. Floyd is a real talent, and anything in addition could be gravy. Andy's two big trades (Tejada to Houston, Bedard to Seattle) haven't let us down. I won't lie and say I've been a fan of our offseason, but this would be, in my view, a good way to head into spring training. At least we'd have 40 percent of a rotation.
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Agree 100%
but if Getz isnt great get the most talent, dont go for position just cause you need a 2nd basemen. I mean if we can get two pitchers, go for it or some other better prospect. We can use Freel if we have to.
by sanders833 on Jan 3, 2009 11:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Two words: BRING BACK BAKO!
OK, two and a half.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
by Titov on Jan 3, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
this deal
just makes too much damn sense.
by UMterp08 on Jan 3, 2009 12:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
It sounds too good to be true, doesn’t it? Would be a pretty big coup to have a starter we didn’t pick up off the trash heap. I feel like there has to be some kind of catch or that someone should pinch me because I’m dreaming.
Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008
by Eat More Esskay on Jan 3, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my only consolation
would be that he’d be playing for Barack Obama’s favorite team.
Now I can create some kind of Barack and Brian Superfriends show in my head to distract myself from the horrors of both the economy and the 2009 season.
"The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again."
by 2632 on Jan 3, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I believe Brian needs to be traded
But that’s not going to stop me from crying if it happens.
I think this deal is a good one.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
by Stacey on Jan 3, 2009 3:09 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Why would Chicago even consider it???
Getting Floyd for Roberts would seem to be steal for the Orioles, let alone Floyd plus Getz. Floyd has either 3 or 4 years before hitting free agency, Roberts is going to be a FA next year and is going to make $8M this year (a good deal, but not as good as Floyd). Maybe if the Orioles pick up most of Robert’s contract, but even then, that’s a lot of service years to give up for 1 year of BRob.
If the Sox give up Floyd AND Getz, then I’m convinced that McPhail has photos of half the GM’s in baseball.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 3, 2009 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's pretty simple
Brian Roberts is a much better baseball player than Gavin Floyd.
Swapping Floyd for Roberts will make the White Sox better in 2009
If the White Sox are better in 2009, they more likely to make the playoffs in 2009.
This type of deal is done all the time. The only way it makes sense for both teams is if it has the potential to make the White Sox better next year and the potential to make the Orioles better down the road. I think this deal clearly meets that criteria.
by dkdc on Jan 3, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about
the hole in the Sox’ rotation created by the departure of Floyd? Vazquez already gone, Contreras a ? with Achilles Tendon problems.
Pitching, pitching, pitching.
"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08
by ballyb on Jan 3, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bergsen doesn’t have a very high ceiling, but he could step in right away as a bullpen guy and then ease his way into the rotation; Hernandez could probably follow a similar path.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 3, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alexei isn't that bad
But he swings far too much and is probably peaking right now. However, on a contending team, you don’t absolutely NEED a BRob type guy at second.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 3, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Roberts is a much better baseball player than Gavin Floyd.
“Much better” seems to over state the case. Floyd just come off a very strong season. I don’t have a subscription to baseballprospectus but I love to see to Robert’s and Floyd’s respective VORPs. In looking at winshares, Roberts had 21 in 09 versus 15 for Floyd so Roberts is clearly the more valuable player for 2009. But Roberts is much older and under control for 1 year.
Swapping Floyd for Roberts will make the White Sox better in 2009
That’s depends on who replaces Floyd in the rotation and whether Getz can handle 2B. If a dud replaces Floyd, I’m very skeptical of whether of WS have improved their team for 09. And if Getz just plays average 2B, the advantage of gaining Roberts over Getz (or whoever plays 2B) is washed out by the hole in the rotation.
by birdman on Jan 3, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 VORP
Roberts 47.6
Floyd 28.3
That’s a 2 win gap, and the before taking into account that Floyd is not likely to repeat last year IMO – his peripherals didn’t support such a low ERA, and his history has plenty of question marks.
I don’t have any idea how Kenny WIlliams would fill out the rotation. All I’m saying is that on talent alone, this deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.
by dkdc on Jan 3, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, thats a pretty big gap. Thanks for posting that.
his peripherals didn’t support such a low ERA, and his history has plenty of question marks.
In looking at Floyd’s fangraph page, his BABIP doesn’t raise any red flags (.268). His SO to Ws look ok. Bill James and Marcel both predict respectable years for him in 09. What’s the concern?
by birdman on Jan 3, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His FIP
Was 4.77 vs an ERA of 3.84. His BABIP is a little low, and he probably got a little lucky elsewhere (maybe with inherited runners?).
CHONE projects him to have a 5.05 ERA next year (although it would be lower in Camden Yards).
http://www.baseballprojection.com/CHA2009p.htm
There’s nothing wrong with Floyd, really, as long as you don’t expect a sub-4 ERA from him. He should be good for a league averagish or slightly worse ERA, which would certainly improve the hell out of the O’s rotation.
by dkdc on Jan 3, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent info (per usual). Even still:
4 years league average starter >> 09 Roberts + 2 comp picks
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Jan 4, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
comp picks can be pretty well-used
I dunno, SC is persuasive, and the service time argument is extremely compelling.
but, well, i just don’t buy gavin floyd.
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 2:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He may be much better
But is he worth 4 times as much??? And that’s not taking into account BRobs higher salary. Then when you add Getz to the deal, it seems a little far-fetched to think that the ChiSox are going to go for that.
Sure, teams will mortgage some of the future, for current production, but this doesn’t add up. Their taking 1 step forward and half step back for 2009; and then taking a step back for several years after 2009.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 3, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then when you add Getz to the deal, it seems a little far-fetched to think that the ChiSox are going to go for that.
It wouldn’t be the first boner trade Kenny Williams has made.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on Jan 3, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Floyd is heavily flukish.
He’s going to regress, although how much he’s going to regress to is to be seen.
If they think Floyd is going to be pitching at the level of a #5 next year, then it might not be smart of the O’s to do the deal, especially since Roberts is a near-lock Type A FA.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Jan 3, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or to ask for Getz.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Jan 3, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would expect a 31 year old second baseman coming off his second best season to be far more likely to regress than a 26 year old pitcher. Floyd probably did pitch over his head last year, but I’m not sure it was that far over his head, he did dominate in the minors in 2007 as well.
If McPhail can get Floyd for Roberts, I’ll be pleasantly suprised. If he can get Floyd and Getz for Roberts, then I’ll be somewhat shocked. If the thought is to throw another O’s player in the mix, then I can see that.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 3, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
-If the Sox can get Robets in a trade, they’ll have a ton of leverage when they sit down to negotiate. Brian isn’t going to command a gargantuan contract next fall, so if Chicago truly does want him for another 4 years, they should be able to keep BRob. Anyways, Kenny Williams wouldn’t make this deal unless he had every intention to lock Brian up.
-I highly, highly doubt MacPhail will given up God’s son for just one guy. Floyd + Getz probably seems like a fair deal to MacPhail; for this to actually go down, Andy would probably have to throw in another pitcher with Brian. The White Sox just flat out don’t have a very good system, and they are thin pitching wise both at the majors and minors. Bergesen and Beato should definitely be used in this scenario, and if neccessary, guys like Liz and Hernandez as well. I actually wouldn’t even be opposed to a deal that included Olson. Garrett is a pretty valuable piece in trades, but with the pace that Andy works at, Olson will be a bust by the time MacPhail tries to package him.
-I wouldn’t be vehemently against MacPhail picking up some of the contract because Brian only has one year left. That being said, I can’t see Andy dropping a valuable player just to pay him off.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jan 3, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
two items of note
1) Everyone over at south side sox hates this deal. They keep referring to Floyd’s “17 wins” and ignoring his career ERA of nearly 5.
2) Latest from Roch:
However, I want to stress that I’m not reporting that a deal is close to being completed. I’m just saying that White Sox general manager Kenny Williams would love to acquire Roberts, the Orioles apparently brought up Gavin Floyd’s name, and the White Sox appear willing to trade him – probably figuring this would be a good time to move him, with his stock so high. And Chicago has a second baseman who could be included in the deal, one that the Orioles really like.
That sounds like a bit of backpedaling to me.
by zknower on Jan 3, 2009 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Roch never said the deal was close. He said, “The two sides have discussed former Mount St. Joe pitcher Gavin Floyd as a starting point in trade talks.” People read his original post and took it entirely too far.
by birdman on Jan 3, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wins are obviously the only thing that matter
Beckett was robbed of the Cy Young, etc etc
"This world extends way beyond this little field of dreams we're dancing in and I want to see that world"
by exitfare on Jan 4, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gavin Floyd is still a minor wild card, but I don’t think that’s a huge deal. I could be wrong, of course, but Floyd was 25 last season and had a very nice year. Floyd’s 2008 (3.84/1.26, 119 ERA+, 206.3 innings, 119 ERA+) was on par with Guthrie, and those two would make a nice 1-2 punch for ’09 and beyond.
The one thing I’ll say about Floyd is something Keith Law has mentioned several times. Don Cooper’s MO is to teach a sinkerball to all his new young pitchers. I haven’t actually checked the data, but Law mentioned that the addition of this pitch worked wonders for Danks and Floyd. It’s very possible that Floyd is just a Cooper creation and will lose his stuff upon leaving. Cooper’s presence may also explain the WS’s willingness to trade Floyd because the WS feel confident that Cooper can simply teach a sinker to another young pitcher and have the same success. That said, keeping Roberts is just complete nonsense. WE WILL SUCK WITH ROBERTS BETWEEN 2009 AND 2011, just liked we sucked in 2008. We need to get younger fast if we plan to rebulld efficiently.
by birdman on Jan 3, 2009 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think Kenny is thinking/hoping
that he can move Dye for a pitcher, put Aaron Poreda in the rotation, Clayton Richard in the rotation and maybe sign Wolf or Oliver Perez. I think I also read someone saying this might come with a window for the Sox to sign Roberts to an extension.
That would be Beurhle, Danks, Poreda, Richard, and free agent and Contreras in the summer plus any other trades, signings. Not that much different from Minn. There is also a pitcher they got in the Swisher deal who could start (no great shakes, cant even remember his name).
Poreda, Richard and Getz or others might be a package for Roberts instead of Floyd. Guillen loves speed at the top of the lineup. They didnt have that last year. In that division Roberts can be a difference maker. Possibly they could move Ramirez to center and insert Beckham at SS in 2010 if Roberts is signed long term.
So teams I see with interest are Cubs, Sox, SF, I still like the Dodgers because not convinced about Dewitt at second and the Mets would love to replace Castillo. I guess the O’s might be willing to go high on a contract to keep Brian and if the market doesnt appear to be shaping up maybe his agent will advise him to sign.
This would seem to be one of those decisions that at the moment isnt crystal clear. Lot of arguments to make either way and with Andy its hard to know what offers are out there or if he is trying hard to sign him. But it does appear this could be a domino for the off season to shed some light on a real rebuilding blueprint, or not….
by sanders833 on Jan 3, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but...
isn’t kranwich a big sinkerball/pitch to contact guy?
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
by j.q. higgins on Jan 5, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree w/ Birdman
Before the Tejada and Bedard trades we had a pathetic farm system. After the trades, we have an average farm syatem, according to Baseball America. So, we need prospects. I admire BRob, but we need to trade him for prospects.
I also think that it is wishful thinking to assume that we might be competitive in 2010. 2011 at the earliest. And, if we don’t sign Nick, we will never be competitive.
by BaltoBen on Jan 3, 2009 8:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If we don't sign Nick,
than basically everything we have been working toward will be for naught. I will physically deform both Andy and Petey if we don’t lock him up and Nick gets pissed and leaves in 2 years.
In regards to the proposed B-Rob trade, I do like it and I think that it is time to part ways. We have tortured his career long enough, let him go contend somewhere while he is still able to contribute.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 4, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nick Markakis is a damn fine ballplayer
But don’t overpay the man just to pay somebody. I want the guy to be signed long-term as much as the next guy. But I think its a little dangerous to view him as some kind of bellweather.
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is more than just his skills
as a ballplayer. Think about what that says to the team and fans if they would let Nick walk. Besides, what exactly would be overpaying? Nick’s contributions to the team go well beyond the field and are hard to measure. I feel that locking him up is a crucial step in displaying that we do indeed intend to contend sooner than later. I was not ordaining the man King of Charm City, but pretty damn close…
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 4, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't care about intangibles
i care what the man does on the field. this makes him a valuable player. but that doesn’t mean we should go hog-wild.
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what would you offer him?
10 mil/year? More? Do you go 5 years or even longer (7+)?
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 4, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really know what his market would be like
I suspect he might have to be paid more than 10 million a year, especially at the end of his deal.
I don’t have any numbers in mind. I just don’t want the O’s to be desperate and foolish. That results in two-year deals for Omar Daal and four years for David Segui.
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe
you just used those scrubs to draw comparisons to a future deal for Nick. Signing him long term has nothing to do with desperation or foolishness, being that I said we won’t have to give up the farm to keep him.
It’s thinking like this that is going to keep this organization from competing. You can’t let past fears/failures stop you from spending money and committing to players that deserve it. We have to show that we are serious at some point about building a contender…what better place to start than with someone who has CLEARLY proven his worth. It’s time to forget about the Albert Belle’s of the world and start getting serious.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 5, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think our farm system right now is considered well above average, probably top 5.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Jan 4, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just want to note
That I think some people (not necessarily here, just in general) overstate the importance of having a player for many years. If a player isn’t that good, it doesn’t really help even if he’s under team control for 20 years. Obviously, many years of an average player will give you an aggregate value greater than one year from a Roberts-type player, but you can replace an average player a lot easier.
Not saying that Floyd is worthless, just that the length of time we’d have him might not be that vital, especially if those projections of a high 4s or higher ERA prove true.
by U2boy417 on Jan 4, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not that big of a fan of Floyd. And I like BRob.
If we’re going to trade him I’d really prefer that it be for a bunch of prospects than a mediocre major leaguer…
by O'sFan21 on Jan 4, 2009 2:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I buy Gavin
I may be in the minority. I admit it.
But uh Gavin’s 2008 was more than mediocre. It was way better than anyone we had sans Jeremy.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on Jan 4, 2009 2:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you're not wrong, i don't think
but, jeez, i dunno, its hard to get excited about the guy. One good year on top of a few bad ones? Isn’t that a game the Orioles have played before?
It may be worth it anyway. Mid-season trades aren’t returning jack shit right now, so maybe Andy should get what he can. I just doubt I can get too excited about Gavin Floyd.
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"a few bad ones"
Eh. He was 21-23. His 2007 really wasn’t bad, either — he finally got it together at AAA and then wasn’t embarrassing in Chicago. But I can’t blame anyone for not being excited by the guy. I’m not either, really — I just think he’ll be above average for a while.
"I decided to become a basketball fan this year and it’s not working out so well because the Wizards SUUUCK. So then I shifted to hockey. That’s pretty fun except there are a lot of flashing lights and horns and shit at the game."
by SC on Jan 4, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
last year was his only full season
So, I dunno what that means. But I guess it means something. Either he’s finally good enough for the majors or it was an aberration. I guess we’ll see either way…
by pipkin on Jan 4, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like this move also.
As much as I have loved watching Brian give everything he has to us for years, it’s time. Gavin Floyd improves our staff no matter how you look at it, even if his numbers would slightly regress. Of course, this means we could end up talking about 2nd base the way we have loathed SS over the last year.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 4, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would just prefer prospects. How much better is Floyd really going to get?
I thought the whole point of trading veterans when you aren’t close to competing is to get prospects who can help you compete in a few years. I don’t see how an OK pitcher who’s already at the majors and isn’t giving any serious indications of having a much higher ceiling than he’s already shown (4.98 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, lots of HRs allowed) really does that. I know that he doesn’t have a ton of innings and so who knows what these stats really show, but I’m not overly blown away by his minor league stats either. I don’t know, maybe I’m just emotionally invested in BRob and selfishly want his market value to be higher than it actually is, but I don’t see this potential trade as being a great rebuilding move. I would much prefer 4 prospects of which 2 are good and 2 are long shots. Maybe that doesn’t make any sense though…I don’t know…
by O'sFan21 on Jan 4, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you are trying to say.
I also value prospects and what they offer with potential. However, if we keep trading only for prospects I am unsure that all of our pieces will fall into place at around the same time.
For example, it is well known that we have about 5 prospects that are expected to break through within the next 2 seasons. If we continue to acquire prospects, the timetable for us to compete continues to be pushed back due to developmental needs. If we acquire a good mix of prospects and major-league ready players, we could incorporate them in and be competitive sooner than later. I just don’t want to miss our window of opportunity and spend the next decade the same way we spent the last one.
WHAT ain't no country I ever heard of. Do they speak english in WHAT?
by sickuvitall on Jan 5, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For real...
…we would be crazy not to do this. Straight up. 1 for 1. If by some miracle we got more than Floyd out of it I’d be whistling Dixie.
by Jonny Pops on Jan 4, 2009 10:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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