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For Comparison’s Sake:

Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267134.html

John’s Top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/18/665005/baltimore-orioles-top-20-p

Note- All ages are of opening day this year

1. Matt Wieters- C, 22, Bats S, Grade- A
   

   League	Abs	BA	2B	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	SB	CS
   Hi A (Car)	229	345	8	15	44	47	448	576	1024	1	2
   AA (Eas)	208	365	14	12	38		460	625	1085	1
   AFL	73	301	5	1	12	16	407	438	845	1	0

I won't spend a lot of time on Matt, because everyone on this site already knows that he is one of the best prospects in baseball. Drafted out of Georgia Tech with the 5th Overall pick, in the 2007 draft, after being inexplicably passed up by 4 teams, Matt has done nothing but rake since signing. At the plate Matt profiles as a middle of the order run producer. Wieters controls the strike zone extremely well, as he has walked more than he has stuck out as a professional, but does not seem passive at the plate and pounces on mistakes. The switch-hitting catcher shows prodigious power and a sound swing from both sides of the plate.

Defensively Matt has drawn rave reviews for the way in which he has handled his pitchers. He has a cannon for an arm, and routinely posts pop times at or below 2 seconds flat. His arm strength has never been in question, as he was the close at Georgia Tech, having his fastball routinely clocked in the low-90s. At 6'5" 230 scouts show some concern as to how Wieters' huge frame will hold up behind the plate, but for now it seems that he is capable of playing above average defense behind the plate.

After trading Ramon Hernandez earlier this off-season the stage is set for Wieters to make his major league debut. The only question now is whether that debut will come on opening day, or whether to Orioles will opt to save some service time and start him at AAA to begin the 2009 campaign. Regardless of where he starts Wieters is the front runner for American Rookie of the Year. 

1. Chris Tillman- RHP, 20, Grade- A-

Tillman, acquired from Seattle in the Eric Bedard deal, had a huge year in AA. While he catches a lot of flak from many posters on this board due to shaky FB command and a BB/9 rate of 4.3, I think many need to take a step back and put things in perspective. Tillman pitched most of the year as the youngest pitcher in the Eastern League and dominated. Striking out more than a batter and inning and holding opponents to a measly .227 batting average against. While improving his FB command will be imperative to his success at higher levels it is by no means abnormal for a 20 year old to struggle with command. Locating his FB more effectively should also improve Tillman's GO/AO ratio, which was too low at .82 this past season.

Tillman features a prototypical starter's body at 6'5". He only currently weighs 195 pounds, and scouts are salivating at the prospect that he could pick up a little velo as his body matures. Tillman currently sits in the low to mid 90's, features a devastating curveball, and a change that is progressing. Aside from his fastball command, the only thing that is holding Tillman back is developing more confidence is his change to give him the three pitch arsenal essential to a starter's success in the big leagues.

Look for the Orioles to move Tillman along very carefully. They are very mindful of not repeating the same mistakes made with other Orioles' pitching prospects such as Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen, who were rushed through the minors.  Ideally Tillman would get at least a full year at AAA, but with the Orioles' lack of pitching at the major league level their hand could be forced, and Tillman could debut sometime late in the year.

1. Brian Matusz- LHP, 22, Grade- B+

The Orioles plucked the left-handed starter out of the University of San Diego with the 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Just like Tillman, at 6'5" 200 Matusz possesses an ideal pitcher's frame, but he is more polished than Tillman. Matusz already features 4 pitches grading out as at least average. Matusz's fastball sits in the low 90's, and while it does not light up radar guns it has a fair amount of life to it. Many scouts believe Matusz did not use his FB enough in college, so like many college pitchers he may look to use it a bit more as a pro, now that he no longer has to contend with metal bats. Matusz also uses a curve and a slider, the curve rating as a plus pitch, and the slider as average or slightly above depending upon who you listen to.  Matusz's best pitch is his change which he throws with solid arm speed and shows good depth. Many scouts who are bullish on Matusz compare him to another lefty from Southern California, Cole Hamels.

While few scouts question his stuff, buth there are a few concerns about Matusz's delivery. Baseball America's draft preview described Matusz's arm action as: "slightly awkward", and were concerned with the fact that he often lands on a stiff front leg. Matusz has been durable in college, and he certainly has the frame to handle a starter's workload, so many believe he will hold up physically (knock on wood).

Matusz's starting point has been the subject of much debate. Despite the rust, in the 7 appearances Matusz made in the Arizona Fall League, he pitched fairly well striking out 10.5 per 9. This success against very good competition, in a league typically unforgiving of pitchers, has led many to believe that Matusz is advanced enough to start the year at AA. His assignment will be dictated by his performance in spring training, but with no rush I forsee Matusz starting in Frederick and being promoted to AA at the Carolina League all-star break.

1. Jake Arrieta- RHP, 23, Grade- B+

Arrieta entered his junior season at Texas Christian University with 1st round aspirations, but when his velo dropped during the season he slid to the 5th round where the Orioles happy selected him, paying him a bonus of 1.1 million. Since this signing Arrieta has done nothing, but make that signing bonus look like a bargain. He went to the AFL after signing and did not allow a run while pitching in relief. Building off that success this year Arrieta dominated the Carolina Leauge, and played on USA's Olympic team this summer, and was the only member of the team who played below AA during the season.

Arrieta's velo has returned as a pro. His FB sat in the mid 90's this season. Coupling that with a devastating slider, and a change-up that that shows the potential to become above average and Arrieta shows the potential to have 3 plus pitches. At 6'4" 225 Arrieta not only has the ability to handle Tillman and Matusz in the post, but also possesses a big durable pitchers body.

A recent report by Roch Kubatko, a local sportswriter, said that the Orioles would be more willing to deal Tillman than Arrieta. Obviously the Orioles are not in a position that dictates trading either would be a good idea, but I find it hard to believe that the O's are higher on Arrieta than Tillman. With Arrieta's success in the Carolina league and then in Beijing he should begin 2009 in AA, and could be promoted to AAA before the year is out.

1. Brandon Erbe- RHP, 21, Grade- B

The Orioles selected the local product in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft, out of McDonough High School in Owings Mills, MD. Erbe is one of the most erratic pitchers in all of the minors. One game he will be dominant, the next he will get lit. Much of Erbe's long-term success will be dictated by how much consistency he can generate. He has all the physical tools he needs to be a solid major league starter- a fastball that consistently sits in the low-to-mid 90s, a slider, that at times, can absolutely fall off the table, and a developing change. I was in attendance when Erbe no hit Wilmington over the 7 innings he pitched. That night he had three major league pitches. As Erbe moves forward he needs to learn to get through outings when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Like a lot of young pitchers Erbe needs to improve his command. While 3 BB/9 isn’t bad, Erbe struggled to command his fastball throughout the season, and when he left it up it was hit hard, as his 21 HRs allowed attests to. This large number of homers led to an ERA that was higher than it should have been. According to minorleaguesplits, when luck is accounted for Erbe should have only given up 12 HRs, and his FIP falls from 4.29 to 3.53. Furthermore, Erbe has not been homer prone in the past, giving up 14 last year in 114 innings, and only 1 in over 90 innings in 2006. This evidence suggests that Erbe is not homer prone and merely suffered from some bad luck this year.

1. Brandon Snyder- 1B, 22, Grade- B- 

Snyder, who the Orioles selected in the first round of the 2005 draft, had an offensive resurgence in 2008. After winning the Hawaiian Winter League batting title in the off-season, Snyder built off that success and hit well over 300 in both the Carolina League and the Arizona Fall League. Drafted as a catcher and later moved to third, Snyder had failed to live up to his first round billing with either his glove or his bat until this season. While his permanent move to first this season means that he will have to really hit to have value going forward, his bat has the potential to play at first in the big leagues.

            Snyder has a good swing that generates line-drives to all fields. According to minorleaguesplits.com Snyder has put up line-drive % of 21.4 and 17.4 the last two seasons. Some question whether Snyder will ever develop the power necessary to play first base, as he only hit 13 HRs this year, but as Snyder gets stronger and learns to drive the ball a bit more he should be able to turn some of his 2Bs, 33 this year, into HRs. The other major question surrounding Snyder is his lack of plate discipline. He only took 29 walks this year, and seeing him play several times this season he often had trouble with off-speed stuff down-and-out of the zone. At 22 he will move up to AA next year, and if he does not develop an ability to control the strike-zone he will be exploited. Snyder’s performance at AA will be extremely telling. If he can improve his pitch-recognition skills, learn to take a few more walks, and turn a few doubles into homers he will become a very solid prospect.

            Snyder profiles as a below average defensive first baseman who should hit around 300 with 20 homers.

1. Troy Patton- LHP, 23, Grade- B-

  MAJ               12.2    3.55   10    4      8      3   NA          5.68    208

-       Stats from 2007, Patton did not pitch in 2008 due to injury

Patton was the best prospect that the Orioles got back from Houston in the Miguel Tejada trade, but he quickly went down with a torn labrum in spring training. After the trade he was ranked as the Orioles’ 3rd prospect by Baseball America. Before the injury many thought that Patton had a good shot to make the Orioles’ rotation. Patton doesn’t have tremendous stuff- a FB that sits in the low 90’s, a slider, and a change that shows good life, but his pitches all play up because of his very solid command. The labrum tear is a very scary injury for pitchers as it often saps them of some velo, but early reports are that Patton is feeling good.

            Looking at his numbers some may be concerned with his low K/9 rates, but he was pitching as a 21 year old all the way up to the big leagues. In 2006 he posted a K/9 of 8.6 in Hi A and Lo A, against competition closer to his age.

            After the injury caused Patton to miss all of 2008, the Orioles may elect to give him some time in AAA, but if he is healthy he will certainly be one of the Orioles’ better starting options. He probably doesn’t have the stuff to be more than a 3, but should be a solid starter who keeps his team in games.

1. Billy Rowell- 3B, 20, Grade- B-

I’m well aware that this grade will be perceived as being way too generous, but I’m a big believer in Rowell’s bat. As a pro Rowell has not yet shown the power that made him a first round pick in the 2006 draft. Last year Rowell put up a slugging percentage of .426, and this year that dropped to a measly 368. Although the numbers don’t support it Rowell has a tremendous offensive ceiling. Hi He has a sweet swing from the left side, although it can get a bit long at times, that produces light tower power. When Rowell squares the ball up it makes a different sound coming off his bat. Even though he is extremely young, playing the entire year at 19, he shows a willingness to go the other way.

            I think a lot of Rowell’s offensive struggles this season should be chalked up to the fact that he was simply in over his head in the Carolina league. At 19 he should have repeated Low A, instead he was rushed before he was ready, and it showed. His swing needs to be shortened just a tad, and he needs to learn to turn on some inside mistakes.

            Some of Rowell’s deficiencies can be attributed to his youth, but some cannot. He is a bit of a butcher at third, lacking both the hands and range to play there going forward. He has a very strong arm, so I think a move to right may be his long-term home. He could end up, defensively, very similarly to Aubrey Huff, who plays some third, first, and earlier in his career, right. In addition to defensive issues there have been reports that Rowell may have some makeup issues. Apparently he was reluctant to give up his personal hitting coach, and that did not sit well with the Orioles.

            I’m not ready to give up on Rowell. I don’t think he will ever be the star many envisioned when he was drafted, but I still think the bat will play, whether that is at 1st, DH, or a corner outfield spot is yet to be determined. It’s easy to forget, but the kid just turned 20. He’s 6’5” and just growing into his frame, give him time. 

1. Zach Britton- LHP, 21, Grade- B-

The O’s plucked Britton out of a Texas high school in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft. The 6’2” lefty features a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a solid curveball, and an emerging change. I have not seen Britton pitch, but judging from his very solid 2.81 GO/AO ratio, his fastball must have good downward movement. Combine his ability to keep the ball on the ground with an average ability miss bats, and Britton looks to be a very solid prospect. Although, according to minorleaguesplits.com, Britton was lucky to post a batting average against of only 219, Ks and groundouts are a recipe for success at any level.

            Another encouraging sign in Britton’s statistics is his ability to dominate lefties. Lefties hit .176 against Britton, and Britton posted a K/9 of 9.24 against lefthanders. This seems to indicate that even if Britton’s change does not progress enough to give him a three-pitch arsenal he could be a useful part of a major league bullpen.

            Britton will move to Hi A next year, and he will need to maintain his K/9 rate to continue to have success, because anything less than seven at high A would be cause for concern. Britton profiles as a 3 or 4 starter down the road.

1.  David Hernandez- RHP, 23, Grade- C+

 Hernandez is one of the more interesting prospects in all of the minor leagues. He put up exceptional numbers this year at AA, most notably winning the Eastern league strikeout crown with 166 Ks in 141 innings. Although Hernandez has put up great strikeout numbers his stuff, according to most scouts, doesn’t indicate that he should generate so many whiffs. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he features a good slider, and a change.

            Hernandez’s control has been a problem throughout his career. His BB/9 of 4.5 this year needs to be improved. Although his ERA was much lower this year than last (2.68 vs. 4.95), it appears that some of that has to do with luck. His walk rate shot up almost 2 full walks per 9 from 2.7 last year, and it seems that his ERA was kept down by a 217 batting average against. That BAA doesn’t seem sustainable as his career mark is around 250. Furthermore, I am concerned about his low GO/AO ratio. A fly-ball pitcher with a high walk rate seems like a recipe for the 3-run homer.

            Still his K/9 rate is extremely impressive. Unless Hernandez can improve his control I think he is destined for a role in the bullpen. He could be very effective there with his FB slider combo, but with the Orioles’ lack of starters they will give Hernandez every opportunity to start. Hernandez is a wildcard who could surprise us all and make it as a starter. He will begin 2009 at AAA, and could make his major league debut at some point during the year.

1.  Kam Mickolio- RHP, 24, Grade- C+

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