The Rotation
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 22, 2009 5:57 PM EDT
151 comments
One of the undeniable truths about the 2010 Baltimore Orioles is that they need better pitching than the 2009 O's had. The '09 birds were dead last in the majors in ERA, FIP, WHIP, and HR/9. A lot of improvement can come across with just giving the ball to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Brad Bergesen instead of Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, and Jason Berken (one hopes), and that Jeremy Guthrie will hopefully bounce back from a dismal year. But you do get the feeling that those four guys alone are probably not going to cut the mustard in terms of turning the pitching staff into a competitive level of quality. So, let's have a gander at the options for the fifth rotation spot in 2010:
From the Farm
It might not be one of the best farm systems after the 2009 purging, but there are still several options to at least think about that would be basically free to the Orioles as rotational candidates in 2010:
The last of the so-called "cavalry" is close to major league-ready, having pitched at AAA Norfolk this past summer with an ERA under 4 and a solid, if unspectacular K/BB of 2.36. It was a step back from his dominating performance at AA Bowie where he held a 3.08 FIP which rose to 4.15 at Norfolk. Of course, this was probably to be expected given the competitive divide and reports that Arrieta was working on a change-up for most of his time at AAA. Having Arrieta in Baltimore on Opening Day, however, would make the rotation incredibly young (and potentially fragile), and an argument could still be made that Arrieta's time has not yet arrived.
Patton is not really an option, as he still seems to be recovering from labrum surgery. He missed the last part of the 2009 season after being downright awful in AAA (6.45 ERA, 6.80 FIP). But he does already have major league experience (well, 12 innings worth in Houston pre-surgery sorta kinda counts, right?).
David Hernandez, et al.
It would surprise me, but not an awful lot, if the Orioles ran Hernandez or Jason Berken or Rich Hill back out there for the beginning of the season. Hernandez in particular was so much better in the minors it's hard to really feel like we saw his best stuff last year. On the other hand, none of these guys really project as much more than average at best as starters and they all struggled a lot (a combined 6.39 ERA and 1.38 K/BB). I really, really don't want to see Jason Berken or Rich Hill pitch anymore.
Free Agents
Despite the guff the free agent class has gotten, there are quality pitchers to be had who likely will come as a relative bargain that the Orioles should take a hard look at. To wit:
Widely mocked as "American Idle" in New York and therefore in the national media, Pavano has surprisingly good stuff (4.00 FIP this past year, 4.17 career) and a heavy ground ball rate (career 1.31 GB/FB) which would probably play very well in the homerrific AL East and Camden Yards. His reputation and 5.17 ERA this past year might very well make him quite cheap this winter. On the other hand, if you're looking for a clubhouse leader, this is probably not your man. At all. And he is definitely an injury-risk (but then, in this rotation everybody is an injury-risk).
A career NLer with a 4.38 FIP and coming off a very good year in Los Angeles (3.23 ERA with his best K/BB since 2001), Wolf is hardly a buy-low guy at the moment, and one of the older quality free agents (33). I would think bringing him to the AL East would probably be a mistake, given his success coming in the "Senior" Circuit and - more to the point - his homer-prone style. He surrendered 24 home runs this year without facing the Yankees. Pass.
Joel Piñeiro
One-time failed Red Sox legend and newly-minted Dave Duncan-posterboy Joel Piñeiro is coming off his best season ever as the Major League leader in ground ball rate and walk rate. Even with some regression, the new Piñeiro would fit wonderfully in the Orioles' rotation if he doesn't opt to stay with Duncan (in St. Louis?)...but again, he isn't a buy-low candidate and will probably be the main pitching attraction after John Lackey signs. But it isn't like the Orioles don't have a lot of money to spend, and Piniero is only 31 next year.
It remains to be seen whether or not he stays with the Braves (he has a player option), and I would be floored if he were actually available this winter, but he might be an option nonetheless, and potentially a very good one. He came off TJ surgery this year and was really good (3.61 ERA in 42.1 innings), so it''s not implausible that his recovery period is over and he's ready to be The Man again. But, like Piniero, if he's out there, it's likely he'll be considered prime real estate and the price could go up (though his recent arm troubles might keep it down. Who knows?).
In my humble opinion, I think the Orioles should go out firing to bring in either Pavano or Piniero on non-extravagant contracts. I don't think the rotation is anywhere close to a sure thing to be even mediocre at this point (though there is tons of potential) and it needs to be augmented from the outside. The Orioles' puddles of money need to be put to good use, and both of these guys have solid profiles to succeed against the powerful lineups in the AL East, despite their reputations.
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I love the idea of Tim Hudson
Can’t especially imagine it happening, just like you, but that would really be exciting.
I’m not such a fan of Joel Pineiro. He was quite good this year but his past is sketchy.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 22, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think about Brian Bannister a lot
when I read about Pineiro. Both of these guys changed their pitching repertoire to maximize their effectiveness (that is, induce more groundballs) because at this point in their careers they really cannot increase their walk rate or strikeout rate, and because of the mighty two-seam fastball, they both became drastically different pitchers. Banny just knew what the heck he was doing, and Pineiro had to hear it from a pitching coach.
It isn’t a promise that Pineiro will maintain his numbers, but it isn’t like he fluked into a good year. He changed his stuff and that reflects in his good year.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 22, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose
But you never know what happens when you get him away from the PC who got him that way. It’d be risky. Although I’d take him a million times over Jason Marquis.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 22, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The story
out of ATL continues to be that they will decline the option or Huddy will and that the Braves will re-sign him to a “home town discount.” I do not think that he is a very probable option. It is also expected of them to trade/not sign Kelly Johnson, Mike Gonzalez, and another pen arm that I can’t think of right now.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First things first...
MacPhail had better throw money at Lackey first. He’s the best pitcher on the market with solid post season numbers.
by Dr Orpheus on Oct 22, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
except I imagine the idea is to find “buy-low” pitchers who are almost guaranteed to give the Orioles a better value than Lackey. Which is not to say Lackey won’t outpitch them – he probably will – but in terms of bang for your buck, these are your guys.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 22, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can't get the idea out of my head
that jason marquis will be an oriole
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 22, 2009 6:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ok, but should he be?
He will be 31 next year after spending his entire ten year career in the National League with a 4.48 ERA and 4.82 FIP and a 1.50 K/BB ratio and 1.10 HR/9. You can expect at least as poor of numbers as those in the AL East, which sounds pretty terrible. In fact, it sounds like David Hernandez could probably come pretty close to that (or Arrieta if Hernandez fails).
So, yeah, it might happen. But it really, really, really shouldn’t.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 22, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
If Jason Marquis is an Oriole I will not be amused.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 22, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Orioles are not here to amuse you. Aggravate, yes.
I wonder if I can bill Jeff Lurie and Peter Angelos for the years of therapy their teams are going to put me through.
by BrianS on Oct 22, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andy tried his hardest to get Marquis before he went to Colorado. If he’s available, I imagine Andy will try to get him again.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 23, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andy didn't sign Marquis in Chicago
Marquis was signed two months after Andy left. Maybe the framework was in place for that particular off-season’s maneuverings, though. I ave a really hard time believing that the O’s front office looks at Marquis’ numbers and says “Well, he’s never been any good anywhere, and that was in the NL, and we’re seriously trying to win games this year…let’s go get him!!!”.
But you never know.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Andy didn’t sign Marquis in Chicago
I’m not talking about that time period. I’m talking about two off seasons ago when the O’s were trying to trade Brian Roberts. I believe Andy either wanted Marquis included in the trade or as part of a separate. Did a quick google search and found this link
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 23, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(playing devil's advocate)
So if he’s never been good anywhere then how do you explain him getting selected to the All-Star Game, tying his career high in wins, having the fourth most wins in the NL, and had a solid ERA for 4.00.
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 23, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sub-par players
get selected to the ASG EVERY year based on their reputation alone. Not that Marquis got in on reputation but your ASG argument won’t hold water.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although
a 4.0 ERA in Colorado is pretty good.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's about 3.10-3.40
in a normal stadium.
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 23, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t if that’s big a gap since they’ve started using the humidor and since half his starts were in normal stadiums, but It’s probably somewhere in between.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They could...
…pull an Oakland/Holliday deal and sign Marquis to a one-year deal.
He’s always much better in the first half than in the second. So…sign him for a year with the intention of trading him for a prospect or two before the deadline.
by sabertooth5185 on Oct 28, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be all for doing things like that.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 29, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I refuse to accept
Jason Marquis as your solution. The guy is coming off of a single career year in which his FIP was nearly a run lower than his career mark, this is a guy who can’t strike guys out and who doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and you want him to come and pitch to ARod and Teixeira and Pedroia and Youkilis?
In short: he has all of the issues surrounding Pineiro and none of the advantages.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 29, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude where on earth did you get that he was my solution?
I said I’d be all for signing him dirt cheap with the idea of trading him to a contender for some youth. Not sure where in that you’re getting that he’s anything close to a solution in my mind.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 29, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All I heard
was that you’re in favor of signing Marquis and not in favor of signing Pavano or Pineiro…and that seems wrong to me.
I also don’t particularly think Marquis would have any trade value after 3 months in Baltimore.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 29, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m definitely in favor of signing him over Pavano, but not so much Pineiro – don’t know where you heard that since I didn’t say it anywhere. In fact below I say:
I’d MUCH prefer Piniero to Pavano.
And I also say that I view Piniero and Marquis as pretty similar and that if we could get one for much less money than the other I’d be all for that one.
So…again not sure where you really got any of this…
As far as whether he’ll have any value, everybody is always looking for starting pitching and if he puts up a 4.5 ERA I don’t think there is any doubt we could get some middle prospects for him. And by that point maybe Arietta is ready.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 29, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry about that
too many comments floating in my head I guess, I had you confused with someone else.
Anyway, I don’t think Marquis has any chance at all of being a 4.5 pitcher in the AL East.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 29, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh plenty pitchers worse than he is have done it for half a season.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 29, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also don’t particularly think Marquis would have any trade value after 3 months in Baltimore.
If Steve Traschel can have trade value after half a season, so can Jason Marquis.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 29, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa whoa whoa
I see your problem: it’s comparing pitchers you might want the Orioles to sign to Steve Trachsel.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 29, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know how you interpreted that I wanted to sign Steve Trachsel from what I said above. In any case, I don’t want Trachsel. I’m just saying Marquis would definitely have trade value if he came here and performed well for 3 months. Not only that, he would have much more trade value than Trachsel given his success in COL this year.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 29, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the same
for every Steve Trachsel that managed to be decent for 3 months (out of which we got…nothing, right? Moore and Cherry are out of the organization and never really contributed, and Jake Renshaw is an organizational guy in A ball), we’ve gotten plenty of Adam Eatons and Steve Trachsel Part IIs.
The overwhelming odds are that if you bring in a mediocre pitcher, he will have a bad time in the AL East, and trade value would be non-existent. And Marquis is a mediocre pitcher at best.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 29, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure, sure, we're talking past each other at this point.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 29, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marquis has....
…a track record of performing much better in the first half of seasons:
2009 1st: 3.65 ERA; .676 OPS
2009 2nd: 4.56 ERA; .791 OPS
2008 1st: 4.44 ERA; .736 OPS
2008 2nd: 4.66 ERA; .761 OPS
2007 1st: 3.67 ERA; .671 OPS
2007 2nd: 5.73 ERA; .828 OPS
by sabertooth5185 on Nov 3, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is he a MacPhail guy?
I’m not sure if he came to Chicago when MacPhail was there…but I too have this fear.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Oct 22, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t be discouraged by Patton’s struggles in Norfolk. In my mind 2009 was a year to get healthy and any good numbers were just icing. I think he needs to spend all of 2010 in Norfolk and hopefully can regain some of his prospect luster. But I don’t really count 2009 as a stepback.
Some free agents I like: Erik Bedard (differing reports on when he’ll be ready), Rich Harden (can’t imagine he’d sign here), Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets. I think all those guys could be top of the rotation guys…or they could spend the year on the DL.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Oct 22, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not yet worried about Patton
It was a little disappointing when he got up to AAA, but considering how much time he had off after his surgery it’s very possible that the increased talent at AAA combined with fatigue from pitching half a season for the first time caught up to him. If he doesn’t improve this year then we’ll know that’s not what it was, but considering his injury the success he did have was encouraging.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 22, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, because he was very impressive with Bowie
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Oct 22, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Bedard is healthy by Spring Training
I’d resign him in a minute.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that even a remote possibility?
I thought he would still be at a the very beginning of his throwing program by around spring training.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably wishful thinking
but the original projection was he wouldn’t be ready until after the ASG.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He be ready to pitch by then but he might not be fully recovered, sort of like Troy Patton this year.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 23, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Future Oriole Rotation
should be something like Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Arrietta and Britton. With guys like Hernandez, Erbe, Patton and Hobgood as extra parts, trade bait or relief. Pitchers like Guthrie, Piniero and Marquis simply aren’t good enough nor young enough to be amongst the possible starters beyond 2010 anyway. I don’t want to see the Orioles saddling themselves with longterm deals with older pitchers beyond this year. If they can sign a veteran starter who knows how to win to work with the youngens in 2010, fine. Piniero and Guthrie are not the answer to a long term winner. Pedro Martinez makes some real sense along those lines, though. He does know how to win.
by fuddnelson on Oct 23, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with some of your points
like signing Pedro, but I do agree – we can’t go looking to sign “Good Enough” pitchers. Either pony up for a stud in FA or go with the homegrown kids. Good Enough will be good enough for 3rd place at best in the AL East.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
If the line of thinking is “either get Lackey or get nothing – and don’t overpay and saddle us with a long term contract for a pitcher in his 30s”, then you can pencil Jake Arrieta or David Hernandez into the rotation right now. I think it’s a little bit asinine to suggest that these “second tier” guys can’t give the Orioles quality innings and good value.
I’m not talking about signing Danys Baez to a three year $19 MM deal, or Aubrey Huff to a 3 year $20 MM deal. Those were ridiculously dumb ideas from the get-go. You could almost certainly get Pavano on a 2 year deal for $15 MM or so. His perceived value just isn’t that high, but his actual value would be …valuable.
We can all agree that something needs to be injected into the rotation, right? Guthrie’s coming off his worst year ever and everyone else penciled in is either going to be a rookie or just barely a sophomore.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree in theory
but I guess as an O’s fan I’m so used to them throwing money at mediocrity that it makes me nervous. Andy MacPhail hasn’t done that, but it’s hard not to worry.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 23, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given a vote,
mine would be NO on Pavano.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play my favorite game
Player A/ Player B
Player A: 4.74 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 50.1% GB rate, 4.10 FIP (career numbers)
Player B: 5.89 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 44.7% GB rate, 4.17 FIP (career numbers)
One of these is Carl Pavano, and one of them is…Brad Bergesen! These numbers are awfully comparable, and we all love 3E around here and hope he can do remotely as well in the future as he did last year. But outside of his shaky injury history, Pavano HAS already been about as good as Bergesen over a longer period of time.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I guess
it’s safe to assume that Pavano will contine to regress as Bergesen continues to progress? OK, I’ll take Bergesen. And if player B with a 5.89 K/9 is Pavano I’d like to see his year to year splits and I’d be willing to bet his numbers are skewed greatly by his first couple of years in the big leagues.
I like this game too. Thanks.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was Pavano
In 2009 between Cleveland and Minnesota, he put up these numbers:
6.64 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 43.4% ground balls, and a 4.00 FIP. He was better than 3E was, and his numbers weren’t skewed by early power pitching.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
That’s really surprising to me. I still don’t think it’s a fair comparison to Bergesen (damn that non-existent N that keeps sneaking up on me) since he’s only been in the rotation part of one year.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I can have Bergesen for $400K a year
or Pavano doing the same thing for about 15X that amount. I’ll pass.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So when Bergesen hits free agency
Assuming he maintains his current production level, you want no part of him?
Look, the goal is to win games. The stated philosophy is to not buy big time pitchers. If we want an ace, it HAS to be Matusz or Tillman (or Arrieta, Bergesen, etc.). But we can win more games if we bring in a relatively cheap, good, under-appreciated starting pitcher this year. We don’t need to buy Pavano or Pineiro or Hudson to be an ace, we need them to be a #3 guy in the rotation, provide some stability, allow more room for these young guys to make mistakes (because they will).
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll worry about that in 5 years
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm, I don't like it
The grumpy old man in me just doesn’t like it. We don’t need middle-of-the-rotation fodder – we’ve got a farm system full of it. I’d rather buy a stud for two reasons:
1) It takes away the pressure of being “THE guy” off 3E or Guts or any of the young’uns.
2) Buying a #4 just seems to me to be a conitnuation of the same-old, same-old. We’ll buy bit players, but we won’t be in the market for studs.
Hmm, I don’t like it.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
You’re comparing a “career” of two and a half months to…you know…an actual career.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I think
that you’re getting hung up on Pavano’s reputation. Which is fine: he earned it.
But what about Joel Piniero then?
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok what's your stand on marquis?
baseball refernce has this thing called a similarity score (seehere) and on Jason Marquis’ page it shows that he has 970 comparison score for Peneiro. Just food for thought.
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 23, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I associate them pretty closely actually. If you could get one for much less than the other I’d be just fine with the cheaper one.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd tend to think
that pineiro would be cheaper because marquis was just an all-star and that’d probably get to his agent’s head and he’d demand much more because you’re paying for “all-star quality.”
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 23, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m fine with Pavano on a cheap one year deal. I don’t know if it’s fair to compare to them in isolation since they’re not the same age. Pavano is getting to the age where you expect a decline while 3E is about to enter his prime.
And ah yes, the Rob Neyer game…. back when Rob used to do columns rather than writing 4 billion blogs per day.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 23, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"these "second tier" guys can’t give the Orioles quality innings and good value."
If that’s your goal, sure they can do that. That’s not my goal.
It’s time to stop filling potholes and repair the damn road itself. If Arrieta’s ceiling is higher than Pavano’s track record, then we might as well see what Arrieta can do. Same with Erbe when his time comes.
We KNOW what Pavano can do, and I don’t think it’s enough to help the O’s even finish 2nd in the AL in 2011. If the goal is the playoffs in 2011, how in the hell does Carl Pavano advance us to that goal?
Stop spending money on “Good Enough” pitchers. Either let the young studs in waiting we have develop and spend the money on a bat (in 2011 when some good ones come available) or spend the dollars for a front-line pitcher. We don’t need 2nd tier guys. They don’t help us at all.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd inclinded to agree with you here
Not only because I think it’s silly to throw money at fill-in types in the rotation but in the line-up as well. Wigginton is fine in that he can take over at 3rd until one of the young guys was ready and didn’t cost too much. Huff, on the other hand, cost this team way too much.
If MacPhail can’t find a stabilizing force for the rotation or line-up, don’t bother. The Orioles should continue to follow the model of the Twins/Rays of last year. Homegrown talent that play the game right with veterans to help tutor and solidify the line-up, bullpen, and rotation.
by Dr Orpheus on Oct 23, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
The Twins had Carl Pavano last year.
Just sayin’.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And they picked him up at the trade deadline
And he was their #3 or 4 starter, an innings eater if you will.
by Dr Orpheus on Oct 23, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guthrie is good enough and young enough to be a perfectly acceptable number 4 pitcher. If they can build a rotation where he’s your number 4 I think we’d be in pretty good shape.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arrieta
won the Cy Young this year already. Why is his status as a 25 man roster guy in question?
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oops
I meant numbers not splits. tomato, cucumber…whatever.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing...
REPLY FAIL!
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I’m not saying “We need pitcher X” or “I don’t want the rotation to be Guts-3E-Matusz-Tillman-Arrieta”. I’m just stimulating some conversation and I do think these are options that aren’t being given their proper dues for some reason or another.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Andrew, what do you think of Harden?
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 23, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Harden over Pavano at the same price.
I’d take Duchehrehrheshehraser over Pavano at the same price.
I’d take Lackey over Pavano at a higher price.
I’d drive several miles outside of town and tell Piniero to get the f*ck out of the car.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
And I’d take CC Sabathia over Jason Berken at the same price, too.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But CC isn't a free agent. Those other guys are.
So it’s SLIGHTLY more realistic than CC.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Harden over Pavano at twice the price.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pavano isn't an injury risk?
I think when healthy Harden is worth twice as much as Pavano and if they are both a big injury risk, then yeah.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden is way more of an injury risk than Pavano
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we're goign to sign a Carl
I vote Carl Everett. That dude is crazy!
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn’t believe in dinosaurs or that we landed on the moon.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To steal O'sFan21's line...
prove it.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"way" more???
How many times was Pavano on the mound for the Yanks over the course of his contract…
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You guys are making me look like Carl Pavano's Biggest Fan EVER
…which I’m not. Anyway, look at why these two guys haven’t been able to rack up innings, not just that they didn’t.
Harden: arm fatigue, strained shoulder, shoulder problems, elbow problems, back injuries, arm fatigue, shoulder problems
Pavano: shoulder injury, elbow surgery, car accident, bruised ass
So one of these guys has a chronic shoulder problem and one of these guys has a comically elongated list of silliness. In terms of the future, I’d bet on the shoulder problem guy to have fewer innings than the unlucky asshole.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the low amount of money
that is invested in the starting pitchign right now, I’d like to see us sign Lackey or comparable pitcher (if possible) to a nice sized contract that will be up by the time all these young pitchers are ready to collect on their payday. Payroll right now is down dramatically with the youth that is on this team. Now, being able to sign and willing to sign a guy like Lackey are two different things entirely. But I don’t really want to waste the time or money on a guy like Pavano.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lackey, of course, would also have to be willing to sign with us.
Judging by how much he seems to enjoy postseason competition I don’t think the odds of that happening are very good.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no doubt
If money is no object, seriously, go and get Lackey and call it a day. And money really shouldn’t be an issue right now. Isn’t the payroll at like $35MM or some ridiculously small number right now?
But it isn’t going to happen. Which really, really bugs me…but I’m saying “Okay, so who ARE you looking at signing?”, and these are the guys that make the most sense to me (barring Lackey).
On the other hand, yeah, none of these dudes is a slam dunk and maybe we’re better off saving our precious dollars for the year when Albert Pujols is available.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I realize it’s a long shot to get Lackey but I think you at least make an offer to a guy like that. If not, I would rather seem them stick to the young guys instead of spending money on average pitchers.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope we would make an overwhelming offer
Having Lackey would do more than win us games next year. It would give us instant credibility. It would set the table nicely for 2011.
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not a big believer in the "credibility" thing
But it definitely would help us win games.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not a big beleiver
in “veteran presence.” But I’d take Lackey or Duch or Harden or even Sheets for the right price.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not talking veteran presence
i’m talking attracting a big bat. easier to sign a big FA when you’ve recently gotten another one
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 24, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prove it
We signed Tejada, recent MVP…and then Vladdy spurned us for LA. I can’t really think of too many other examples of this happening.
There are in actuality two reasons why a player signs with a team (in no particular order): money and winning.
Signing Lackey would help us win games, making us more attractive. Prince Fielder isn’t going to say “Well, it’s the AL East, they’re perenially basement dwellers, and they aren’t offering me the absolute most money this winter (but it’s close)…but I see John Lackey signed over there, so they must be up and comers!!!!!”
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 24, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the "prove it" trope is really tired.
prove to me that you know what goes on in all ballplayers’ heads.
And seriously? Don’t put words in my mouth. Your hypothetical Prince Fielder quote reduces my point to an illogical extreme.
it’s clearly not always about money, as players often don’t take the best offer. and it’s never about “winning”, because obviously no one can know in advance how many games a team will win. it’s about “perceived best chance to win”. as in, “I think I will have a chance to win there.”
If the Orioles play .500 ball next year with a bunch of no-name rookies, it may not turn a lot of heads.
If, on the other hand, they open their purse strings for Lackey and play .500 ball (including him winning a bunch of games), it is a more tangible signal that the FO is committed to winning. Players are looking for just that: they want to perceive a commitment to winning.
During the 2010 season and offseason, no one can know what the Orioles will do in 2011. They can only go on the trend the FO is setting. Picking up Lackey takes the trend in the right direction.
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 24, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright
Look, there is no reasonable argument I can make to make signing John Lackey look like anything less than a solid, good move. And I really think there is little reason not to go after him, especially in a year where the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are probably not going to be involved.
But the only thing we absolutely can say for sure is that it would help the team win games over the next 3-5 years. That’s it. You can’t say it’ll attract more players, and I can’t say it won’t.
But I am awfully in favor of winning more games.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 24, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know who else is in favor of winning?
THIS GUY!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 24, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be completely
John Lackey is outside of the scope of this fanposting. The idea was to bring some of these supposed “lesser” options to the forefront and really make a case that they could be a pretty good pickup for the O’s.
I mean, it’s really quick and boring to just say “John Lackey is pretty good. Go get him.”
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 25, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
The title was was The Rotation. And then you broke down possible solutions into “From the Farm” and “Free Agents”. And then you completely ignored John Lackey.
Your solution might be to go look for bargains, but you can hardly blame people for bringing Lackey up and/or speculating about whether the FO for try for him, whether that’s the best place to put the new payroll, whether or not he’d ever come, etc. etc.
It’s not like the guy doesn’t exist. He will be part of any rotation discussion from now until he signs somewhere in the offseason.
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 25, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 25, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re-reading my post,
it might have come across as a bit snippy. wasn’t meant that way. :)
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 25, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Lesser" options
do not interest me.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i am
lackey would help put butts in the seats which would help us sign free agents in the future
by twistedlogic on Oct 24, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rich Harden
has thrown 150 innings in a season exactly once – in 2004. He also had a Guthrie-esque problem with the long ball this year for whatever reason, but his raw stuff is so very good that I think he’s likely to be a prime target of a team that can afford to pay him to throw half the year and spend the other half in an ice tub (like the Red Sox).
All of these guys coming off of major injuries (Bedard, Harden, Sheets) all bother me a lot because you don’t know how much they’ll give you, and you don’t know how good what they give you is going to be. I would gladly take any one of them, of course, but if the Orioles are serious about spending wisely, then I would think that unless interest in these guys is underwhelming, they’d pass on them instead of taking a flyer.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Save for next year?
I’m not against the idea of trying to get an above-average veteran on a one- or two-year deal for a good price. However, if the young guys are going to learn, they’re going to have to pitch in the majors… and honestly, if Guts/Bergy/Matusz/Tillman stay healthy (and especially if Guts pitches like in ‘07/’08 and Bergy is comparable to this year), then we have a lot of options for that last rotation slot. Yeah, some of them aren’t pretty, but out of the four above, Tillman’s the only one I’m worried about having a lot of struggles for the first few months. Three solid starters and one you just need to give major league experience really doesn’t sound that bad… and if we get a veteran, unless MacPhail’s planning on trading Guts when Arrieta looks ready, somebody would have to drop out of the rotation, and I can’t see anyone I’d really want dropped.
Actually, what if Andy signed a veteran with the intent to trade him to a contender in June or July, just to try to grab a couple more prospects? Sounds like something he’d do…
It seems like it might be better to keep the payroll low this year and try to save the big bucks for getting a really good bat next year, when the available free agents look better. Of course, all this assumes MacPhail doesn’t have some ridiculous trade in mind; Dave Trembley seemed to imply he expected to get a big bat via trade in an interview (I think it was the last one on masnsports.com).
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
by Vuff on Oct 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea
of signing a guy just to trade him at the deadline. I thought we should have done that with Pedro this year. For $1 M what’s the risk?
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For one thing
Pedro wouldn’t sign for less than $5M before the season started, unless I’m misremembering.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Oct 23, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right before the season.
But once spring training was done and nobody came calling I think he dropped it to 1. Even 5 is barely a risk though.
by O'sFan21 on Oct 23, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
that those types of guys would really net the Orioles (or any team) much in the way of prospects. It’d probably be along the lines of the Huff trade. Not that Brett Jacobson is chopped liver, but he’s hardly a game-changer for the system.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
An interesting possibility
…would be trading for Derek Lowe.
The Braves are looking to move Lowe, due to an excess of starting pitching and a subpar 2009 season. With Lowe owed $45 million over the next three seasons, which will take him to his age 39 season, they can’t be expecting much in return even if they pay much of his salary.
But Lowe’s poor 2009 numbers are deceiving. His FIP was a solid 4.09, and his BABIP was 31 points above his career average. His K/BB numbers were down from his Dodgers numbers, but even so were better than his last two seasons in Boston. He continues to be very durable, having thrown more than 180 innings every season since 2002. His ability to limit home runs will be all the more valuable in Camden Yards. And he is a veteran with winning experience and leadership skills that the O’s crave.
On the free agent market, the O’s will not be able to land a quality starter at $15 million over three years. Lackey will cost much, much more and will also cost the O’s the third pick of the second round. The inexpensive injury risk pitchers like Harden and Sheets are not going to come to Baltimore, and if they did, we would have to vastly overpay. On the other hand, we can probably acquire Lowe from Atlanta for a prospect less valuable than the second round pick while paying something like $30m over three.
This move has the added benefit of allowing us to deal Guthrie to the Brewers for Gamel or Hardy while still having a durable veteran arm at the front of our rotation.
by James F on Oct 23, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Veteran sinkerballer = good,
but I’d be worried that we’d have to give them too much in prospects or take on more of his contract than we really want to… adding $10 mil (or more) per year for the next three years seems like a lot when we want to make sure we have money available for a big bat if the opportunity arises.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
by Vuff on Oct 23, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The money
should still be there for a big bat. The majority of this roster will make peanuts for the next 2-3 years based on their youth. IMO you could easily offer a really good contract to a pitcher and a batter a year down the road.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 23, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As far as money goes
According to Cot’s, the Orioles have less than $31 million committed for 2010, less than half the 2009 payroll. Scott, Ray and Guthrie have to be added after arbitration, but none will get massive raises due to performance. Let’s say, however, that they bring the payroll up to $40 million before any free agency or trade additions. That still leave the O’s $27 million just to get up to the 2008/2009 payroll level. Even if the O’s took on all $15 million, that still leaves $12 million for a big bat, and more if you trade Guthrie or Scott. Personally, I’d deal Scott for Lowe and Guthrie for Gamel, slot in Gamel at 1b or DH to replace Scott in the lineup and Lowe in Guthrie’s spot in the rotation.
by James F on Oct 23, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We take $40M off the payroll next year.
We lose more in payroll off the books than the Marlins PAID this year. That’s how much is coming off the books.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 23, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like those trades
Scott fills the Braves desire for some power in the LF spot. Lowe adds the veteran rotation presence needed (and maybe teaches that sinker). The Orioles might have to add a mid level prospect, but that’s ok. Maybe they would like Rowell? Then Guthrie for Gamel works, too. It shakes up our rotation and lineup which is needed, gives the rotation a veteran winner and perhaps solves our 1B quandry.
by fuddnelson on Oct 24, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rowell is junk
if you’re talking mid-level prospect, look more at Caleb Joseph or…gosh, I don’t know, just about everyone before Rowell.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 24, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Rowell has any value
Even if he might do well with a change of scenery. I think that Scott + $30 million in salary relief would do it for Lowe, but if a prospect is needed, I’d think Spoone, Patton or Lebron would do it.
by James F on Oct 24, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Braves fan here
I really like the idea of Lowe for Scott. We were talking about the same thing over in our rosterbation thread. I was even thinking we would have to add a prospect.
Lowe wasn’t as bad as his ERA and he would be a steadying force on your rotation as he makes all of his starts and give you a chance on nearly all of them.
We obviously have hole in left and Scott’s HR power would help our lineup and free ups some cash for 1B and CL.
by bbxxj on Oct 29, 2009 6:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Javier Vasquez
I’d much rather have Javier Vasquez than Lowe and his horrible contract for the next three years. Vasquez has pitched at least 200 innings for 9 of the past 10 years (198 in 2004). He had a great year last season, but I’m not sure how it would translate to the AL East. Though he would be in the last year of his contract so he may overperform. I really think he’d be the best option given the cost.
I’m not sure if the Braves are looking to trade him or not. I’ve heard his name alot over at Orioles Hangout, which could mean he’s not available.
by edsachs1 on Oct 31, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The D-Backs didn't pick up Webb's option, right?
Would that make him a Type A or Type B free agent, after spending pretty much the entire season on the DL?
by cjatud2012 on Oct 23, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Would the O's have to give up a pick for him then?
Or would the D-Backs just get a pick after the first round? Of course, this is assuming he would want to come play for our team, lol, which seems unlikely.
by cjatud2012 on Oct 23, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
webb just recently had shoulder surgery
and 9 times out of ten that surgery makes the pitcher much worse then he was pre-surgery.
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 23, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Peniero would actually be a very, very good signing
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Oct 23, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For the Orioles
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
by ravensfan3 on Oct 23, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why, though?
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 24, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah! PROVE IT
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 24, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had a 3.28 ERA with the Cardinals
A very low walk right, excellent ground ball rate. How much less affective would he be on the Orioles?
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Oct 24, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly a lot less
In 2009, Pineiro had a FIP a full run below his career average. His BB/9 was less than half his career numbers, and his K/BB was twice his career numbers. In addition, his K/9 dropped for the third year in row.
Maybe his two-seamer has really improved him enough that his 2009 rates are sustainable. Maybe his true gb% is the 60% he posted this season and not his career 48%. But it is a lot more likely that it is a contract year explosion, or Dave Duncan’s magic, and the weakness of the NL Central this season.
We could do worse than Pineiro. But we’d be getting him at the peak of his value, and he’s a prime candidate to regress.
by James F on Oct 24, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right off the bat...
… the difference between AL and NL
also, the difference between the AL east and the rest of the AL.
Answer: He could be much less effective.
"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo
by zknower on Oct 24, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not mistaken
Smoltz pitched like junk with PHN but pitched considerably better for STL. Maybe it was just the water.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 26, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it was the league
AL East > NL Central
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, in summary
I think we’ve reached something of a consensus on a few things:
1) Money isn’t a factor at all because the O’s are shedding Mora, Gibbons, Baez, Walker, and more from the roster bring it down by 50% or so.
2) A new starting pitcher needs to be gotten, and the acceptable ones seem to be John Lackey and Derek Lowe (and quietly someone said Joel Pineiro).
3) Carl Pavano is a Bad Idea. Although someone with his identical stats, but not his silly humiliating reputation, would probably be okay with you all*
*Ok, I made that last part up because that’s what I want you to think. But I’ll stand down and we can just agree to saying “No” to the American Idle.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 23, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i agree with all of this
but pavano wouldnt be the end of the world. i mean come on, he’s got playoff experience, that goes a long way…
"you know what the orioles could use right now? a day off." - joe angel
by swilhelmross on Oct 24, 2009 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, those winning Melvin Mora years....
were all about the playoff experience he brought to the O’s.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 24, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well put
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by ravensfan3 on Oct 24, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sold on Lowe being the answer to many questions
but he could be.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Oct 26, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need to sign
someone who will be a serious difference maker. The only person that fits that bill is John Lackey, and we are not getting him. None of those other pitchers would be successful with the Orioles at this point in time.
We have a few more prospects to sift through before we need to abort the mission. Grow the arms, buy the bats. Stick with the plan people, stick with the plan.
by sickuvitall on Oct 25, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We CAN get him
if the numbers on the check are high enough. If we pay 25% more than anyone else, he will come here. It would be a pretty dumb thing to pay 25% over market value, but I bet he WOULD come here.
"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK
by duck on Oct 25, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said
he wouldn’t come here. I just stated that we will not get him…which you made the case for with your market value vs dumb move argument. It would be ridiculous for us to overpay by that much, and if we see that I am sure that Andy would too.
I want to compete just as much as everyone else, but the road is looking quite bumpy. If we are going to severely overpay, it needs to be the absolute right person.
P.S.-The fact that we will have to overpay to get someone to come to Baltimore exemplifies everything that I hate about baseball right now.
by sickuvitall on Oct 26, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Lackey and overpaying
Let me start at the ground floor on this one…
Fact: Lackey just turned 31 years old last week.
Fact?: He has stated that the deal is he comparing himself to is A.J. Burnett’s 5 year-$82.5MM.
Fact: Over the past two years, Lackey has missed a not-insignificant portion of time to vague arm problems like a “triceps strain” and an “elbow strain”.
Fact: Despite that, Lackey’s numbers in 2009 were slightly better across the board than his career numbers, his ERA matched his career level, and he did not see a boost from an abnormal BABIP or LOB%.
If you are into putting dollar value to WAR (which is one of the only ways to objectively measure value, IMO), Lackey was worth $17.6MM in 2009, which again was roughly his career level. So if we assume he lowers in value by 5% every year from here on out (which is just an exercise, I really have no idea how plausible that is), he will be worth $75.65MM over the next five years.
That’s pretty close to what he wants actually.
Opinion: There aren’t going to be a ton of teams out there bidding for him. I don’t see any reason why the Yankees or Red Sox would get involved unless Andy Pettitte retires, leaving perhaps the Mets, Angels, Rangers, and Cubs as the obvious options. In turn, the bidding is not going to go as crazy as Burnett’s did.
Therefore, in my opinion, the Orioles could easily sign Lackey for $80MM over 5 years and get good value (especially given the inflation of the value of a win over that time frame), as Lackey seems to have left his injuries behind him. But that assumes that his value lowers by 5% every year, and again I don’t know if that’s realistic.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 28, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There aren’t going to be a ton of teams out there bidding for him. I don’t see any reason why the Yankees or Red Sox would get involved unless Andy Pettitte retires, leaving perhaps the Mets, Angels, Rangers, and Cubs as the obvious options. In turn, the bidding is not going to go as crazy as Burnett’s did.
I could easily see the Yanks getting involved even w/ Pettitte. Why? Because they’re the Yankees. That’s what they do. They’ll insert Lackey into the rotation and move Joba as the fifth starter. And I see the Braves and Tigers getting involved as well. It’s going to get crazy.
Therefore, in my opinion, the Orioles could easily sign Lackey for $80MM over 5 years
Ain’t no way. The O’s will have to over bid to get him. Some competitive team will offer 5/80M that and he’ll go there.
as Lackey seems to have left his injuries behind him.
Not saying he’s injury proned but he did start the year injured so I don’t know if I would say he’s left his injuries behind him. Does any pitcher every leave his injuries behind him?
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Oct 28, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re:
Therefore, in my opinion, the Orioles could easily sign Lackey for $80MM over 5 years and get good value
You forgot one thing in your analysis. The Orioles are the Orioles.
by Jonny Pops on Oct 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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